The Road to WW3

It will start when Taiwan declares it's independence from China. China then invades Taiwan. Due to China's military strength, it will probably take them at least 3 months to take total control. The U.S. and it's allies declare war on China and Iran. Iran becomes the first military front of the U.S. The U.S. wipes out Iran. Russia becomes neutral until the U.S. starts invading China by ground. Russia starts invading U.S. controlled Chinese territory. As with the War on Terror, terrorists turn U.S. and European cities into lock down. Nuclear terror attacks could happen. However, the world war will not be nuclear because all nuclear countries will sign an anti-nuclear-militarism treaty. They realize what could really happen to this planet if we use nukes.

It would be really hard to say who wins.

It's an interesting idea Dan and one that has made me think.

Let's face it, Taiwan considers itself independant already, so why would a more public declaration led China to invade. Yes, China has publically stated it would not tolerant an independance Taiwan, but does it have a choice?? China would appear to have the military forces to invade Taiwan but you can guess this will not be an easy job. (We have Iraq to compare to) Can China afford to spend months being the whole of Taiwan under control?

My guess is, it could if there was little outside pressure, but as soon as the US Military pickup the invasion build up, they will send more carrier battle groups and I guess run a series of military exercises with Taiwan.

The other question on the invasion of Taiwan is the economic impact on China. Do you really think the we will contine to see the vast exports from China to the US and Europe? While these exports have kept the cost of living down, would we as citizens, not want our Governments to impose a boycott on goods/exports from China

Another interesting point, is what Russia would do if China were to invade Taiwan. I suspect they will sit on the fence until they can see a clear advantage to hop down on one side or the other. Interestingly, with China being a permanent member of the UN security council, no resolution could be passed condeming China as they would just veto it.

I am interesting in why you think the US would declare war on Iran as well as China. I would think with the military operations in Iraq and fighting to return Taiwan to its people, the US would be very very thin in the ground so why add by wiping out Iran. And why not add North Korea to the list?

The implication of wiping out Iran would imply the use of nuclear weapons, but I think the US would want to avoid doing unless they were attacked first, and if we accept that Iran does have some nuclear weapons, the US has vastly more. And it the US did use it nuclear capability, would this not be a clear message to China and would this not led us to a fully nuclear exchange?

Why would the US invade mainland China? Rather than liberate Taiwan. If we look back to the end of the Second World War, the atomic bombs were used as a means to force Japan to surrender. The forces required to invade Japan and the expected losses were huge, so would would invading China be any different? And again lets look at the losses the allies have faced in Iraq. The only case I could see for US forces invading mainland China in your scenario, would be if Russia invaded from the North and West.

Who do you regard as the allies for the US? The rest of Nato?

Why would a war with China led to US and European cities being lockdown anymore than they are today. Are you suggesting that more terrorist organisations would use a war with China as the go ahead for greater activity? Certainly in the UK, we have lived with terrorism for the last 40 years without cities, or the country being locked down.

If your scenario plays out, who would you see on the list of countries that would sign the "anti-nuclear-militarism treaty" other than the major nuclear powers? Iran? North Korea? South Africa? Israli? India? Pakistan?

And finally, what do you think the timeframe for your scenario is?

reply to post by Freedom ERP

Originally posted by Freedom ERP
I am interesting in why you think the US would declare war on Iran as well as China. I would think with the military operations in Iraq and fighting to return Taiwan to its people, the US would be very very thin in the ground so why add by wiping out Iran. And why not add North Korea to the list?

50 years ago, North Korea would be more likely to be on the top of the U.S.'s "targets list", but in recent times the North seems like they are "cooperating" more with other nations. Is North Korea willing to go to war with us with thousands of troops stationed just south of them? Iran is just a pain in the neck for the Americans.

Originally posted by Freedom ERP
Why would the US invade mainland China? Rather than liberate Taiwan.

I meant after we liberated Taiwan, the US would invade China. In a full-out war on a scale like this, there would be mass invasions and skirmishes between the involved countries. Invading China seems possible for the U.S., since it would prevent China from using their nukes when it is their last attempt.

Originally posted by Freedom ERP
The only case I could see for US forces invading mainland China in your scenario, would be if Russia invaded from the North and West.

The Russians have no reason to invade China. In fact, they are major economic partners and are both part of the SCO. The Russians would invade if they saw their partners fall to their greatest rival, the U.S.

Originally posted by Freedom ERP
Who do you regard as the allies for the US? The rest of Nato?

Mexico, Canada, NATO countries, Japan, Australia, Philippines, and many other countries that would support the U.S.

Originally posted by Freedom ERP
Why would a war with China led to US and European cities being lockdown anymore than they are today.

Terrorists would see the war as a chance to do more damage to the "Zionist regime" and it's allies. They use chaos and fear as their weapon.

Originally posted by Freedom ERP
If your scenario plays out, who would you see on the list of countries that would sign the "anti-nuclear-militarism treaty" other than the major nuclear powers? Iran? North Korea? South Africa? Israli? India? Pakistan?

Iran, N.K. aren't really major nuclear powers. But they would probably use their nukes as in if they had nothing to lose if they were invaded. But the major nuclear powers would realize what could happen to future generations if an all out nuclear war would happen.

Originally posted by Freedom ERP
And finally, what do you think the timeframe for your scenario is?

I would say the war would start when it is the "right time" for China to invade Taiwan. Who knows how long the war would last and what effects it could cause to the planet.

[edit on 10-10-2007 by Dan5647]

If I understand you Dan, the US will use any invasion of Taiwan by China as a result to wipe out Iran. Using the fact there are military and trade links between China and Iran to make the case for an invasion of Iran.

Would you see this as a invasion on the lines of Iraq or just a massive air campaign that wreaks the country. And will Russia sit on the sidelines while the US pound Iran back to the stone age?


I am still trying to understand the rational for the US invading mainland China after they have liberated Taiwan. I can jsut able see the US people supporting an operation to liberate Taiwan but to invade China afterwards, I just can not see. China, if it has taken control of Taiwan, would not give up Taiwan without a fight, and just how many lives would be lost in retaking just Taiwan. To invade and subdue China, would be an all together bigger task.

I just do not see how the US could invade China with its current commitments. Even with help from its allies. And how would any invasion prevent China from using its nukes. It is a vast country, and during the first gulf war, I do not think any mobile scud launchers were detected and destroyed. If China is invaded, I can not see why they would not use their nukes, first to hit the Us invasion fleet and then to hit Japan and Taiwan.


So if Russia is a major ally of China, I see even less reason why the US would invade mainland China. Having to fight two of the world's major powers would seen a big ask, even of the US and its allies. Some of whom might be happy to go after China but not Russia as well.


I still do not see why terrorism would just increase because of a US invasion of China. Terrorists would claim to have enough reason to attempt to lock down our cities today if they really wanted to.


I am still very interested in your timeline for this. In the next 90 days, 6 months, 12 months.................

No no no you got it all wrong. This is how its going down.

End of Zeworld

**STRONG LANGUANGE**

[edit on 10-10-2007 by Everythingyouknowisalie]

This whole China-Iran friendship and Taiwan invasion World War III scenario is ridiculous.

For one, if you did your research you'd realize that Chen Shui-Ban is actually being criticized by the United States just for removing "China" from several companies and Taiwanese textbooks. The U.S. State Department has actually blocked approval for military sales to Taiwan. If Taiwan outright declares independence the U.S. will just step aside and let Taiwan get its thumpin'.

Not to mention China is not particularly interested in an invasion as it could be very costly and perhaps needless with the DPP possibly on the outs.

In fact, Hu Jintao made an appeal in his address to the National Party Congress not too long ago for a peace treaty as long as Taiwan accepts the "One-China" principle, which goes right in line with what Ma Ying-Jeou has proposed if he's elected president in 2008, which he likely will be.

If Hu actually decides to declare independence or do anything similar China will probably pull out a lot of measures it has to make Taiwan regret it. China could impose and air and naval blockade, seize Taiwan's holdings in the Spratly island and Kinmen and Matsu near the Chinese shore (which may greet Chinese forces and willfully reunify with China) and even seize the Penghu islands neary the main island of Taiwan.

Not to mention cutting Taiwan off from all Chinese commerce, ultimately crippling its economy.

Iran is peanuts to China and they don't really need them or want them. Russia's the one having an affair in Tehran.

reply to post by Khepri


Uberly well said that member!!

Oh and BTW if China really wanted to take Taiwan, you'd be looking at days not weeks or months!!

MonKey