Oil hits record $80 US a barrel

Oil hits record $80 US a barrel

www.cbc.ca

Oil prices waded into uncharted territory above $80 US a barrel Wednesday after the U.S. government reported a big drop in crude oil inventories.

Crude oil futures for October delivery settled at $79.91 US... the price briefly touched $80.18 US. That easily tops the previous intraday record oil price of $78.77 US a barrel, set on July 31.

Inventories of gasoline fell by a more-than-expected 700,000 barrels and refineries were also less active.

(visit the link for the full news article)



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Hang on to your wallet people.

This is related to both tight inventories as well as the falling US dollar. Since oil prices are set in dollars (for now ) and today dollars are worth less, it takes more of them to buy a barrel of oil.
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www.cbc.ca
(visit the link for the full news article)

$80 a barrell and there isn't even a hurricane threatening the US yet, imagine if we have a Cat 3 headed to the Gulf, what will we see next $100?

btw... lower dollar against other currencies correlates to higher oil prices, OPEC has to get their money's worth regardless of how low the US dollar drops.

How many bucks do you want to bet that all those al-Qaeda videos that were released is meant as a distraction to take people's mind off of this? Because if people put two and two together, they'd realise that causing more instability in the middle east (i.e. attacking Iran) would not help to bring the prices down.

Another point I forgot to mention. A Fed rate cut is already priced into the system and some are saying that a half point cut is what is expected/hoped for.

Anything short of that and the market will be "disappointed" and react accordingly. In addition this Friday will be an interesting day for the markets as mentioned here: www.abovetopsecret.com...
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The falling dollar is one thing, the US and the Canadian dollar are damn near equal for the first time in 35 years. Is that significant? Yup, Canada, is the largest supplier to the US:

Source

Guess what "conflict" was going on 35 years ago?

So what's with the prices? Now here's the paranoia coming out in me, we've got a war going, where can we get added revenue from? Screw the consumer?

Nah, they wouldn't do that.

The Canadian dollar should surpass the USD eventually because we are a resource based economy (commodities are in a bull market) and we are the only G8 country to have had balanced budgets with surpluses for the last several years.

Another factor in the price of oil are the recent attacks in Mexico:

Mexico gas and oil pipelines bombed in six places.
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Yeah, I've been watching this for most of the day.

Gools has pointed out, quite rightly, that the market believes a cut is going to happen. But no signs from the Fed point to a cut or even a significant cut.

We will see $100 US a barrel, especially if the Middle East continues to heat up and a possible conflict with Iran.

other words

black Friday?

[edit on 12-9-2007 by infinite]

Hints of a peak oil explanation from Marketwatch?

Cr ude cruises to $80 a barrel - Commentary: Traders doubt OPEC's ability to boost output

What is remarkable about this latest spike in oil prices is not the usual knee-jerk reaction, but the fact that it comes on the heels of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' pledge to raise output to take some of the heat off prices.

Energy traders aren't buying it.

It's not that OPEC is reluctant to raise production. With prices this high, discipline within the group's unruly ranks is not a concern. They were already pumping nearly a million barrels a day above their official quota.
No, the skepticism has more to do with production capacity -- or lack thereof.

Surprising that such a mainstream news outlet would hint at peak oil, but the the business pages are about the last places left to get a real idea of what's going on in the world. You know what they say, "follow the money".
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I still marvel at the amount of wisdom in that simple phrase; "Just follow the money".

Last spring, legendary oil trader T. Boone Pickens repeated his prediction of $80 before $60...and over a year ago Bill Gates was saying: ''The ol' dollar, it's gonna go down.''. I wonder how many small investors followed this money?

So it appears traders are speculating that production capability may be strained. Production capacity has always been a pillar of Boone Pickens argument for higher prices, but I can't help but feel that some of what we're seeing is related to traders front-running geopolitical risk. I recall that last March, prices began a run to $70 when the world was anticipating a spring U.S. military offensive against Iran. I guess it's no surprise that they never retreated to $60 & below as many anticipated.

Prices look like they will remain high today with Forbes also commenting on the fact that an announced production increase from OPEC is doing little to overcome fear of supply shortages.

Oil consolidates but remains close to highs on supply fears, hurricane Humberto

An announcement from OPEC that it planned to pump an extra 500,000 barrels of oil per day from the start of November has done little to allay fears of supply shortage going forward.

Not to mention Humberto.
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