World War Three Is On The Horizon

I don't feal that it will be as global as WW2. That war was fought on every continent except Antarctica. Some of it was even fought on American soil in the Aleutian Islands. And it involved pretty much all of the civilized and technologically advanced nations in some form or other. Some played supporting roles without actually committing forces to the fray, while others were mired in the bloodshed. And we know it was a costly war. Estimates of the total loss of life vary and depend on what perspective you look at it from. Mine? If you include the millions Stalin purged in Russia before, during, and after the war I would say somewhere around 30 million.

This war will be similar in some ways. It will be a global war in the sense of many nations being involved. But the battlefronts will not be defined aside from invasions of nations. Virtually all nations now will be involved in some aspect. Most will not commit any forces to actually combating it. As we have seen, the early stages have shown that there have been three battlefronts: The Gulf War, Afghanistan, and Iraq again. Scattered over the years numerous terrorist attacks. Khobar Towers, the fist bombing of of the World Trade Center, The USS Cole, 9/11, Madrid, London, Bali, and numerous other attacks.

The initial stages of this war have been and will be for some time small scale skirmishes and action, tons of terrorist attacks and counter-terrorism action. For awhile allot of it will be fought politically. We already see alliances being formed and changed. America has lost valuable allies while finding allies in unexpected places. Our traditional foes, the Russians are moving to a more Soviet style lately. Just this month alone there have been at least two examples of a return to Cold War thinking on the part of the Russians involving their long range bombers.

Let us not forget KAL 007. When the Russians shot down a civilian airliner with some 160 odd people aboard. Americans never recovered the black boxes. Russia may pull another stunt like this based on their increasing belligerence lately. Meanwhile, you have China and North Korea trying to assert themselves. These three foes could potentially form an alliance. I don't expect them to outright support the terrorist factions and regimes in the Middle East except for Iran. To do so would not be in their best interests.

The next stage will see an escalation of violence in the Middle East. I would even wager Israel may be invaded. Iran is going to have a nuke in about 3 or 4 years. At this point the violence will increase. It's likely going to involve Israel. As I said, Israel may well act unilaterally and hit Iran first. Regardless, it's going to go off like a roman candle over there.
When it does, the Americans will already have a presence there and be at ground zero. If the US can react properly and swiftly it might help slow down overall escalation. But it will get so hot there that America will be in grave danger of completely falling apart. As we have seen now the liberals and far left are stirring up enough anti-war and ant-military sentiment to seriously threaten the effective use of our armed forces and will to fight. Once things go pear shaped in the Middle East expect to see America look allot like it did in the 1960's but worse. There will be allot of violence right here at home. Muslims will be persecuted. It's going to get very ugly here. All the various groups will be at each other's throats.

Meanwhile the terrorists, who are the true heart of WW3 will grow stronger. Europe is pretty much going to sit on its ass. Aside from Germany. Germany isn't pro-America but since 9/11 have done more than other Europeans with maybe the exception of the British at seeking out terror cells and shutting them down. But Europe will do little unless directly affected by the conflict. To prove this consider the Madrid train bombing.

Spain, prior to the bombing was supportive of American efforts and even committed troops. But unrest at home was growing. al Qaeda conveniently blew up a train which had a direct effect on the elections in Spain. Sure enough, the new leader there was not pro-American and Spain backed off supporting America. France will do nothing, as usual. Only England will be able to be counted on for any demonstrable support.

And so, we are seeing new alliance forming, increased violence. But not full scale war yet. No, that's going to take something drastic. I expect Al Qaeda will launch another deadly attack, most likely on American soil. This is in part to our lack of secured borders and the far left having done allot of harm to Homeland Security. We are an easy target still. If only America is attacked the war will remain as it is for a long time. But, if the terrorists do a major attack on any nation friendly to America we will see full scare war in no time. If they detonate a dirty bomb in London, Tokyo, perhaps even Berlin, we'll see a rapid shift in thinking with some nations.

They will suddenly see America might be right. They'll join the fight.
Iran will be the next battlefront in terms of taking down terror supporting regimes. Russia is going to play this one very close to the vest. If Iran does something that justifies being attacked in return Russia will not be so quick to support them. But if Iran is attacked without adequate provocation Russia will most assuredly fully back Iran. This will give the Russians their foot in the door to try to regain their former Soviet style power and influence. And if Russia steps in..so will China and North Korea.

So essentially what will happen is you'll have a three sided war: The allied powers being mostly Western nations, perhaps some Asian ones like Japan and South Korea, the radical and fanatical Islamic nations who sponsor terrorism, and then a Communist Alliance formed of Russia, China, North Korea. Venezuela and Cuba will side with them. Though if Castro dies soon there is hope for a new Cuba.

In the end this war will be one of ideology and religion. It's another Crusade. Primarily it'll be Christians vs. Muslims. But with the likelihood of a third party in the form of communists. I think the Communists will gladly set back and let the Christians and Muslims fight it out and then be opportunistic as it suits them. I also believe the escalation into full war will see the use of nuclear weapons. And the ones who will first use them will be Iran. this will embolden North Korea to use theirs. Pakistan and India will refrain from using their unless attacked. Now, Western nations will be reluctant to use the nukes unless of course Iran and North Korea use theirs on them. Even then I think America will resist as much as possible using them. Mean while, Russia will not use theirs until last. Russia and China will save theirs for when they think they will need them most. After all, if America is nuking the Mideast why not let them expend their weapons? Why waste ours?

The worldwide death toll will be very high. Even more so if nukes get involved and this is very possible. I won't say billions will die. That's impractical. But the death toll will exceed WW2. And further more, we will see a total realignment of power in the world. A new balance will be the result. Western nations aside from South American ones will be weakened in terms of strength and political influence. Economies will collapse. America will no longer be the sole superpower. South American ones, like Venezuela, having made deals with the true power in WW3 will become dominant in this hemisphere. Europe will be devastated, perhaps not by bombing, but economically and politically. England could become a third world nation. Europe will be stagnant. Japan, if the allies lose, will likely be invaded by China and North Korea. Pakistan and India will remain pretty much as is but shifting allegiance to the stronger nations around them.

The Middle East will have gained nothing. Most nations there will be devastated by warfare and pretty much remain weak and impotent. Oil rich nations might found themselves occupied. The Communist Alliance will fare the best of all. They'll gain new territories and resources. Russia will be the sole superpower, sharing a bit of the glory with China.

And Australia...
ah...not much if anything will happen to them. They're conveniently too far away to be invaded easily or a threat to anyone.

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Mod edit - spaced paragraphs for easier reading



[edit on 11/9/07 by masqua]

my gosh, thats a pretty big post. I think it will take some time to get through this one.

Ive read a little of it... and good work on taking the time to type it up.

-fm

Nice post

But you might want to paragraph it so its easier for folks to read...

I gotta admit I was keen to read when I saw the title, but got bogged down with everything being bunched together without spaces...

With regard to the content of your post (the bit that I actually was able to read easily), yes it seems the net "World War" will be ideology based...In fact, it wouldn't be outlandish to say its has well and truly started already

I'm going to try and re-read the whole post carefully and slowly, as I'm sure there's much in there to think about and debate and so on

Peace

Good read. You've got quite an interesting point of view and prediction of what could happen. Just one 'problem' with it, which isn't that big in the long run, and I'm really only mentioning it because I'm English.
England becoming a thrid world country? We are fine, we'll still be able to grow our own food, fish etc... So I don't see food being a problem in the long run, unless we are attacked and occupied. Housing will be fine, if the economy goes bye bye, lot's of extra buildings for the homeless to sleep in right? And most Brits already have a place to live anyway, we won't be forced into slumbs unless we are attacked and occupied, even then, we're pretty stable at the moment and I don't see us fighting eachother, just the occupiers.
I also don't see Japan and South Korea sticking with the 'allies'. They're too far out of the way to defend if the West is attacked, and they'd most likely join/fall to the 'Communist Alliance'. I can't imagine nations like Cuba and Venezuela, they're far too close to the US mainland to publicly sign up with Russia and China. Cuba can easily be blockaded by the US Navy and Venezuela will stay nuetral in order to survive.
I said I'd 'pick' at one point, but I finished the first point and just kept going .

Just a couple of points I would like to add......

1) Do not be surprised if the new leadership in France does not turn more in favor of the US. They might not be sending troops anytime soon, but they will not be shooting down our actions as much. Remember, France has a large muslim population and this could be a problem. The prior leadership just dealt with them by leaving them well enough alone. If things were to get dangerous there, do not look for current leader ship to sit on the sides like patsies.

2) Asian countries losing faith in the US? Don't count on it. I travel to Japan quite often and the majority of the people there still look to the US as protectors and expect as much after what we did to them post WW2, not allowing the rebuilding of the armed forces and such. They deal with alot of home grown terrorism fears there and would fully expect any attack from outsiders to be dealt with by the US. Their presence in Afghanistan and Iraq were mere token preseces. We did not require, nor ask. They wanted to be by our side and they were. I do not blame them for bringing their boys home, I thank them for our service.

3)Venezuela as a super power? Not in my life time, nor my kids. Too much corruption and not enough leadership. Dictators are not leaders. A leader does not drag down an entire society and destroy a culture just because he can. Their oil is considered heavy oil, or dirty oil. Way too much refining is needed for use here in the United States. Their oil does well for the Chinese and let them have it.

4) The Russians are not as dumb as most people and the media are palying them out to be. They are playing both sides of the battlefields. I do not trust them, nor would I want to push them away. If we needed to quell a disagreement in their part of the world I would look to them to jointly take care of business. As great as it was to end the cold war, we lost touch with all the dangerous elements of Russia when we "beat" them. When we knew where every missle was and where it was pointed I actually slept better. To know their weapons could show up anywhere now is quite frustrating.

5) As for here at home.......I do not htink America will fall apart. Yes we have elements on the far left and the far right that would like to see that so they could seek control, but give the American people some credit. We see through things and we know where we stand. I disagree with alot that is said on these message boards here on ATS, but I respect you for what you say and would defend your right to say it. When it comes down to it......if the US were to be attacked outright and openely from another Country, I would expect every American to stand up and fight. If not, i would not consider you to be a fellow American

6) Austalia not a help or would have fears? Australia has fought along side America in everywar we fought in the 20th century. Expect nothing to change in that. They live with the fear of terroism just as much as we here in the states due, mostly due to their allegience to America.

I know this was long, the longest I have ever posted.

Thanks for listening.

Interesting post.I agree with the religeous siding in the conflict.Its what the terrorists want isnt it,to re-live the crusades?I also agree on the russian/chinese angle waiting while the other combatants are occupied for their attack.Of course the middle east oil and ports will be the main objective of all this.

Originally posted by Rilence
Nice post

I gotta admit I was keen to read when I saw the title, but got bogged down with everything being bunched together without spaces...


Peace

I apologize for the "bunched upness" of it. I was in somewhat of a hurry typing it.

reply to post by traderonwallst


Don't forget Japanese citizens protestedt the arival of 10 B2 bombers to a base in Japan.Some do see us as protector,others fear we will bring war to their country.

Russia is not stupid,Nor is Venezuela a super powe.However,if Russia really wanted to make a move,they could simply put some nukes into the silos of some of the many submarines they have supplied/supplying Good Ol' Chavez.

Then when the U.S. is at war in Iraq,and Afghanistan,and at war with Iran/Syria and a few other smaller countries,this would be the perfect time to strike.Suddenly we have x amount of nuclear weaponized sumbarines sitting a couple thousand miles off our coast and the phone at the white house rings.

BAD NEWS.

[edit on 13-9-2007 by Project_Silo]

As for the part about America falling apart...I don't see that.
True, racism still exists, on both sides. Having lived in Atlanta when I was wrestling, I witnessed both ends of it. But even though this country has so much diversity (which actually leads to conflict amongst the varying groups) when provoked openly, Americans unite as one.

Say a terror cell, operating under Iranian funds (Hamas), trained in Venezuela, and transported over the Mexican border by willing and well paid drug dealers, were to pop off either a dirty bomb or a small nuke in a southwestern or Californian city...bet your butt this country would unite and be ready for blood. Far more than we were after 9/11.

Consider this about my scenario. On 9/11 around 3,500 American's died. If a terror cell were to set off a nuke in say Houston Texas, the casualties could easily be 100 times those of 9/11. Figure 20 to 30 thousand killed almost instantly within the blast radius and well over 200 thousand either injured or dying within a perimeter of ten to twenty miles of said blast. If you really don't think several million young American kids would stand up and tear down the doors of military recruitment offices to go kick anyones butt, then I truly don't think you've thought this through.

Yes, there are many disparate groups in this country, many culutres and ideologies that conflict with each other. But we've always been that way to some extent. The one thing to worry about is if the radical elements of our society (which sadly do exist on both wings) were to attempt to take advantage of this situation and attempt to seize power or unleash their own, sick, racist agandas.

As far as the actual war goes...I beleive Europe would not sit idly by. True Spain did after Madrid, but Al Qaeda and others are showing far more interest these days in trying to blow England off the map rather than the US. (I could be wrong.) And spot on about the Germans. With a very large Turkish population ( a Muslim group among them), the German government has to seriously concerned. Also with Sarkozy (Hope I got his name right) the new President in France, I really don't think the French will be as French as they used to be. Also consider this, a resurgant Soviet Empire is far more of a threat to the European Union than they would be to the United States.

The RUssians could fight the US via proxy opponents such as Iran or Venazuela or even Cuba ala the Cold War. THe only scenario in which direct military contact would occur would be if the US and a coalition were to invade Iran, which sits very close to Russia's borders and borders ex-Soviet republics that have a pipeline run by a Moscow based oil company. If this were to happen, especially if the US ground forces began scoring victories over the Iranian opponents on their way to Tehran, I expect the Russian's wouldn't hesitate to violate the territorial intefrity of the Caucasus states with several divisions to reinforce a vital strategic ally. Expect T-90's vs. M1A2's if this were to occur. And don't be so pedantic as to think that the T-90's wouldn't be effective. Massive casualties would be the results.

I actually beleive that Russia might try to take advantage of a chaotic US/Mideast scenario by trying to regain control over Ukraine, Beloruss, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, hell even Moldovia. If this were to occur, I really can't see the EU sitting idly by watching the Bear creep up on the horizon, especially as all of those countries are seeking NATO membership. Expect a massive armed response by the nations of Europe. Their only downfall would be trying to play catchup with a rebuilt Soviet military machine that may actually have the chutzpah to at least reach the Danube in an offensive, possibly even the Rhine or the English Channel.