Dangerous Hurricane Dean..UPDATES

I wonder just how much damage it will make to all of the places it plans to visit...I hope something like the N. Orleans won't happen again...

Hi All,

Here is a computer model map from weather underground:




Each of the colored tracks represent a different computer model prediction.(for those who dont know) What is interesting is the GFDL track which veers off from the other predicted tracks. Yet many meteorologists agree that the GFDL model is the most accurate.

I know that Dean is predicted to reach cat 5 status once it gets near the Yucatan, but I am not sure it will make landfall as a cat 5 storm. (I hope not anyways) It might go through an eyewall replacement before it hits land, or if it crosses over any land beforehand then that will also weaken the storm.

Of course it is entering some pretty warm water in the gulf, and that gives me some concern that it will at least stay a cat 4 storm wherever it hits




I am definitely keeping my eyes on this storm. And here I was wondering where all the Atlantic storms were, and thinking we would end hurricane season without a major hurricane.

This was blinking (in Firefox browser) on the National Hurricane Center site:
Hurrican DEAN Update

000
WTNT64 KNHC 180135
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
930 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007


DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 145 MPH...CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

Ministry of Local Government & Environment

Carribean Net News

Originally posted by NGC2736


Martial Law?

I believe this could be the opportunity that the govt has been waiting on. As a catastrophe insurance claims adjuster i have been sent to every major storm and hurricane along the gulf coasts since 02 and at no time have I ever seen the federal presence in the streets as bad as I did in La in 05.
Ive made a few posts about this on ATS and most people seem to just brush it aside, even after posting information about the Blackwater mercenaries kicking in law abiding citizens doors to take every weapon (firearms)in their home.
Katrina was great chance to see how citizens would react to being forced to stay in a city and Rita was a great chance to see how they would react to being forced to stay OUT of their city and their homes.
In Florida, after Charley and Jeanne, people were allowed to stay in their homes with or without electricity, even with caved in roofs etc but during Rita people were not allowed back to their homes and forced to stay in shelters (camps) even if it sustained no damage. I know this to be fact because many of my customers I spoke to on the phone told me they wouldn't be allowed back, even for the inspections, until FEMA said they could and there were road blocks, staffed by soldiers, everywhere.
I adjusted the home of a man whos son was an employee of Blackwater, the employee was there and actually assisted me in the inspection. He seemed to be a nice enough guy and was excitedly telling me of his assignment to the 9th ward of Nola the next day.
He was honestly hoping someone would resist or fight back, he was dying to be in a "firefight" as he called it. Oh well, we shall wait and see.
Anyway, back to Dean. Its a monster of a storm but it is way to early to be able to determine where he will hit. The computer models dramatically change each time they are ran, they vary from the Texas/Mexico Border to South Central Louisiana but the latest GFDL, which they say is usually the most reliable, puts it in Mexico to between Houston and Corpus Christi, which is where I live.



I hope the best for anyone that is unfortunate enough to be in Deans path, just dont come to Corpus
Unfortunately this is how I make a living though and sometimes I feel like the grim reaper lol..
The latest on Dean is 145 mph winds with the barometric pressure at a dangerous 936 mb's, moving west, still, at 19-20 mph.
It has a very well defined eye now, which gives it a very good chance for even more intensification, it is predicted to be a category 5 storm within the next 12-24 hours.
Where ever it makes landfall in the US, I will be deployed to that location within 1-2 days or as soon as accommodations can be found.
I am able to gain access to these areas, regardless of FEMA orders because of my status as a "first responder" so if and when it hits in the US and I get there and if anyone is interested, ill try and answer any questions that people may have regarding the storm or regarding any security measures that I see being taken by FEMA or anyone else there from the Govt.




Sources of hurricane information

Other source, Weather.com



[edit on 8/17/2007 by Kr0n0s]

I also notice that the GFDL model does not project landfall until it hits the coast of Texas. That would mean that there is little likelihood of it weakening very much at any point.

And the deeper warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico could really intensify this storm.

So now the winds are up to 145? Thats really impressive the way this storm is getting stronger so quickly, at least I think it is pretty impressive. I hope the residents in Jamaica can get out of the way somehow.

reply to post by Kr0n0s


don't forget after the florida hurricanes you didn't have ghetto rats shooting at helicopters bringing them supplies and shooting at rescue workers...etc..
so taken in context the "kicking down doors and taking away weapons" in my book was justified after the hurricanes in N.Orleans.

Yes, it is strengthening very quickly but sometimes when these storms strengthen very quickly, they sometimes run out of steam before hitting the US mainland.
At first they were predicting that the African dust and dry air would keep it pretty low until it got to within a 200 or so miles from the Yucatan Peninsula. Then have it intensify to a 3 or 4, then lose steam as it went over the Yucatan and then re-strengthen in the very warm waters of the Gulf.
Historically most hurricanes that are major storms, Cat 3 and above, rarely hit along the Gulf coast at that strength after crossing into the shallower waters of the shelf. Doesnt mean it will always happen but its happened many times.
The Yucatan is actually a very good defense for the gulf states, if the storm loses enough momentum after crossing it then sometimes the shallow waters of the gulf can slow down its re-strengthening.
Of course, I'm not claiming to be an expert but because of the nature of my work, I have studied them with a lot of attention over the past 5 years.



[edit on 8/17/2007 by Kr0n0s]

A few moments ago I saw on the link below that it was moving at 240 mph with wind gusts up to 296.32mph.

And KOrOnOsOsOs , You know I consider you a good friend here, please be careful and stay with us through out this ordeal no matter how big or small. Don't take chances or be so brave you are in danger Ok , your friend in the denial of nondisclosure, Antar

visz.rsoe.hu...

You know, i'm thinking back to the thread that was discussing this a few days ago when all it was was upwellings off the coast of africa. Honestly, do you suppose the people who said it was nothing special and went "OMG upwellings?!?! NO WAI!" will feel chastened if this turns out to be a killer?

reply to post by darkheartrising


I thought the reports of people shooting at helicopters and eating the dead were proven to be completely bunk?

It made for sensational news alright...

reply to post by WyrdeOne


It matters very little if it's true or not. Enough people believing it, like the poster you answered, is enough to give an excuse that far too many will accept at face value.

A lie is the truth once enough people accept it as the truth.

Originally posted by WyrdeOne
reply to post by darkheartrising

 

I thought the reports of people shooting at helicopters and eating the dead were proven to be completely bunk?

It made for sensational news alright...

Our neighbor is in the National Guard and him and his squad rode out the storm in New Orleans and was there for the aftermath, verified that they really were shooting at helicopters and rescue workers, he was shot at himself and the boat he was on. they couldn't go to get some people off rooftops because they had incoming fire from their direction.

believe what you want but I believe the people that were there first hand.

im definitely gonna keep on eye on this storm because i live in Houston.... and i went to galveston a few days ago, and the water is extremly warm. and if Dean comes towards the gulf, the warm water is surely gonna give it alot more strength.

if it comes this way.... guess im going to have to evacuate

yes storm2k.org is the best site for the most updated links , heck they have a thread titled

"dean recon obs."

which basically some members there are hurricane hunters and they download the hurricane hunter info. right onto the board as it occurs (the 145 mph wind update was there 15 min b4 the weather channel even mentioned it)

anyway yes i love the weather and i watch the weather channel 2 much, but the fascinating thing about the path is that jamaica has had an uncanny ability to dodge alot of storms, my bet is this one goes south by about 50 miles (keeps the worst winds off-shore).

BTW there will be a storm developing behind this 1, in a few days

Originally posted by darkheartrising
reply to post by Indy

 

it is important to note that a refinery fire in Pascagoula Mississippi shut down that Chevron refinery (one of the largest in the nation BTW) and if this hurricane damages the offshore platforms again this could be very bad news for the price of gas...add the declining dollar and bad markets and we could be in for a very, very rough time ahead..

refinery story:
www.wlox.com...

[edit on 17-8-2007 by darkheartrising]

Why does this always happen when I can't afford to fill the tank? And I'm close to empty?

Here's that link cpdaman

www.storm2k.org...

Originally posted by antar
A few moments ago I saw on the link below that it was moving at 240 mph with wind gusts up to 296.32mph.

And KOrOnOsOsOs , You know I consider you a good friend here, please be careful and stay with us through out this ordeal no matter how big or small. Don't take chances or be so brave you are in danger Ok , your friend in the denial of nondisclosure, Antar

visz.rsoe.hu...

Antar, Thank you for your concern I really do appreciate it and your kind words. I will be careful as always but ive never had any fear of these storms, even in 05 when Rita came on shore I was in SW Louisiana.
My brother and I didnt evacuate because honestly there was no where to go, the highways were backed up for hours and if we had even tried to leave, we wouldve most likely ran out of gas on the road and wouldve had to face the storm in my truck. We ended up riding out the storm in our hotel rooms in Abbeyville La. just a few miles from where the eye came on shore, it was a blast to

I think you may have seen a typo. 240 mph winds would most definitely be a record, not necessarily impossible but would definitely be the top news story of the season. The current record holder (for atlantic storms) for the lowest barometric pressure is Wilma in 05 with 882 mbs. Im not completely sure about the record winds though, im thinking maybe it was Gilbert with about 200 mph sustained winds.
Dean having 240 mph winds would be an awesome storm but would be impossible right now with its pressure still above 925 mbs.
I did see some far off predictions about the possible pressure of Dean falling down to the lower 800's but that would literally make it the storm of the century.
Theres no doubt in my mind that Dean will be a Cat 5 within 36 hours and with the current trend weve been in the past few years, its possible that it could very well break some records.
I'll be watching it very closely over the next few days and if it does make landfall anywhere in the US and causes enough damage I will update with what I see and post pics and or vids, for those interested.

Here is the site I use most for info

and here is a Blog from that site that I sometimes visit

reply to post by darkheartrising


And yet so many here would call it a hoax if a poster said I saw a UFO over New York City last night,reasoning that under city conditions, more people would mean more witnesses, and when none are found, the person is labeled a hoaxer.

And even if it did happen, to some degree, it is no different than any other time in the world we live in. People shoot at each other for a variety of reason, most of them because they can.

Using the logic that some sporadic gunfire is reason enough to kick down doors and remove weapons at will, puts the people of the US in the same category as the citizens of Iraq. Basically a land occupied by troops that can act as they see fit.

I live in a rural area, but within a hundred miles of me there have been four DUI related in three days resulting in deaths. By your logic, the cops ought to lock up every place that sells booze and make people go back to the days of bathtub gin.

You can't stop people from violence by treating them en mass as criminals. You have to stop the criminals, not the legal citizens. You can't make everything illegal simply because it's easier than actually doing the job you said you wanted in the first place.

And what if you're one of the homeowners in such a situation? You have a gun to protect the property that you have invested a lifetime to get. They come take your guns, so you are now at the mercy of the gangs that can beat you to death with a baseball bat while they loot your house.

I understand the need to protect those involved in rescue and so forth, I just don't believe in punishing the innocent along with the guilty.

These are my opinions, just as you have opinions. I respect yours as valid, but not given and signed off on by God. Because I am reasonable I won't childishly try to validate myself by listing you as a foe just for not agreeing.

reply to post by NGC2736



you make some good points but dont' forget that the houses were empty and if the authorities didn't take the guns the ghetto rats would have. the law abiding citizens were long gone when this took place, only the dregs of society were left to loot and shoot stolen guns. and i say that in the kindest of ways.