Georgia: Russia dropped bomb on village

I would imagine that it would make a big hole and the burn marks could be from it's fuel igniting after impact.

Russia has threatened Georgia with air strikes before, right? I do recall hearing the statement. If I am wrong, please correct me.

If Russia is willing to murder a British citizen in London, then I think it's quite able to strike another country.

Originally posted by infinite
Russia has threatened Georgia with air strikes before, right? I do recall hearing the statement. If I am wrong, please correct me.

If Russia is willing to murder a British citizen in London, then I think it's quite able to strike another country.

Not discounting that, infi, but going on what we know, rather than speculation, is better.

It makes no sense for Russia to launch a single missile of it's newest type, against a small village and not bother to arm it ,unless the missile was a dud, but if that was the case and they were striking a specific target in that village, they would attack again, surely? We would, if it was us.

Seems to me that this can easily be discounted as an accidental release of a weapon, rather than a planned attack on Georgia, which is a little harder to believe.

I also don't ever remember Russia threatening Georgia with air strikes, but I'm seeing if I can find any info on that.

Ok, on the Russian "threat", that was issued in 2002. So, five years ago. And it was specifically to attack Chechen rebels.

So, assuming they finally acted on a 5 year old threat, it would be feasible they launched the attack but the missile was a dud. In that case, had they been specifically attacking a target, they would have attacked again, surely?

Also, if Russia is ballsey enough to issue threats, why would they deny an attack, had it took place?

In today's climate, they could easily get away with a "pre-emptive" action to fight "terrorists".

Personally, I'm going with accidental release.

This will all simply blow over and in a week you will forget it ever happend.Georgia[spelling] cannto compete with Russia.At most there will be some legal mumbo jumbo for a bit.

There is no doubt in my mind something huge is going to go down soon,such as a war with Iran bringing in enemies we did not expect.But this is not the start of any military action between the two i asure you.

The crap is definitaly going to hit the fan soon,but this is not it.

How does this fit into the mix? It's from Aug 5th


Separatist South Ossetian KGB slams Georgia of planning acts of terrorism

05.08.2007


Two mines filled with a large quantity of damaging elements were defused in Tskhinvali the other day, according to Atoyev. "Law-enforcement bodies learnt about the terrorist attack, and it was possible to prevent it thanks to quick actions of our agent planted in the Georgia's counterintelligence service network," ITAR-TASS cites him. “Information about the location of the explosives was made available thanks to a South Ossetian KGB officer, Inal Kolyev, who had been working undercover within the Georgian secret service for the past six months,” Atoyev said at a press conference, which was also attended by Georgian journalists. Inal Kolyev, who was actually present at the news conference, said he himself had planted the explosives at a spot selected by Georgian security services operatives overnight on July 25. Officials in Tbilisi, however, said the allegations were a propaganda stunt.

I don't really see how there's any connection between ex-soviet states/Russia with a future attack on Iran? If there's ever going to be an attack on Iran, it's not going to be done by the country that's arming Iran gladly. You have Russia arming those that the U.S denies to arm, it has always been that way and it's merely a "safe" way for the armers to test their weapon capabilities.

So, they've threatened Georgia with an attack and after 5 years have decided to act? That doesn't really make sense, especially because of the points brought up: Wouldn't they attack that target again? Russia had to have found it to be of importance and leaving the target be after not confirming the explosion is simply dumb.

We will never know who dropped the "bomb" (or whatever the object was, be it a fuel tank, unarmed shell, etc.) because it could have been an operation by any number of countries. This is what I hate about these sorts of "international incidents" and their press coverage, like the death of the ex-KGB guy. International responses can be tailored, depending on who carries out the operation; even the incompetent US administration understood this (Operation Northwoods). It is unfair and irrational of us to assume that Georgia is being entirely truthful and while Russia is not. While the perpetrators of this incident are important, I highly doubt we will ever find out what really happened. It could have simply be a covert Georgia-NATO operation to further estrange Russia and bringe the Georgian people closer to Europe. Or it could have been a mishap by a Russian pilot. Or international forces of which both Russia and Georgia are unaware could have orchestrated this. I doubt we'll ever know anything with any degree of certainty except the string of diplomatic events to follow.

see what happens in the next few months.

from 2006;

Georgia prepared to declare war against Russia

english.pravda.ru...

Originally posted by stumason
Seems to me that this can easily be discounted as an accidental release of a weapon, rather than a planned attack on Georgia, which is a little harder to believe.

Even an accidental release would be a bit contradictive seeing as Russia denied they were even flying over Georgia at the time!

i`ve heard of South Ossetia - they are suffering a massive genocidal effort to stop then ceding from georgia - the brutality Georgian forces are showing is disgusting.

Originally posted by malganis
Even an accidental release would be a bit contradictive seeing as Russia denied they were even flying over Georgia at the time!

If they were flying at high enough altitudes the released device could have drifted to who knows where. Not that I find that to be the case, it's still a possibility.

Either which way it turns out to have happened, it's going to be a messy situation for Russia's public view.

Iran just placed an order with Russia for a large quantity for SU-type fighters. The weapons sells that Russia have been pushing as of late is of extreme concern. This incident doesn't exactly have to be instigated by either Russia or Georgia. I think it'd be best to take a look at who's bought SU-type fighters from Russia in the past few years:

India

China

More on this can be found here:

The Irkut Corporation [RTS:IRKT], which is part of Russia's United Aircraft Building Corporation created in 2006, manufactures variants of the famed Su-30MK for India, Algeria, and Malaysia.

Who has an interest in causing a conflict between the two entities? It wouldn't take much to ignite the entire region.

EDIT: to fix links.

[edit on 7-8-2007 by tyranny22]

Originally posted by malganis
Even an accidental release would be a bit contradictive seeing as Russia denied they were even flying over Georgia at the time!

Released at 30-40,000 ft and traveling at several hundred miles an hour, it could have ended up many, many miles from where the aircraft were.

In any case, it's just a theory. But more plausible than Russia carrying out a half hearted air strike, then denying it, when they have already publicly stated they will carry out such missions if needs be.

Until proven true or not just more speculation.However has russia not in the recent past used bully-boy tactics against its former satellites?Using its oil shipments as a weapon for example.

A full scale war is in the making...



I guess Georgia might attack South Ossetia & Abkhazia soon. South Ossetia & Abkhazia will fight back with help/aid from Tiraspol.

a mixed message from the 2nd August;

RUSSIAN Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov said today that Russia will not wage war against Georgia, but indicated that Moscow would continue exerting pressure against its small southern neighbour.

news.scotsman.com...

hmmmm...I still don't like the sound of that.

Originally posted by Hellmutt
I guess Georgia might attack South Ossetia & Abkhazia soon. South Ossetia & Abkhazia will fight back with help/aid from Tiraspol.

Hopefully, the're not stupid enough to do that.

That would be on the scale of Florida attacking Gainesville and going to war with the United States.

[edit on 7-8-2007 by tyranny22]

Originally posted by tyranny22
That would be on the scale of Florida attacking Gainesville and going to war with the United States.

Exactly... I really do hope they can muster the courage to fight their war in a political way, not one of arms. Even corrupt politics beats an absurd declaration of war like that.

Ok - how exactly did CNN and other news agencies conclude that it was Russia's bomb? Because some Georgian information minister told them that? This is another example - when something is amiss in Eastern Europe or ex-CIS, first blame Russia, then try to come up with some proof, and then fail miserably.

Seriously - Russia and Georgia use the same exact weapons. During the wars in South Ossetia and Abkhazia it was very common even by locals to mistake Russian airplanes and helicopter for Georgian ones, and the other way around. It was later determined that a vast majority of Georgian accusations of seeing Russian jets and helicopters crossing into their airspace, were false - because they were actually Georgian. This is not a first time something like this happens - and it is certainly not the first time Russia is accused before any facts are gathered.

What reason does Russia have to send a single strike against Georgia? They know they are not going to scare Saakashvilli from doing whatever it is he is planning to do. Russians are also not too eager to help Ossetians right now, seeing how they even withdrew the peacekeeping forces they kept in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. And of course Russia knows that Georgia needs any opportunity to rouse up a propaganda stink against Russia. Russia doesn't even pursue Chechen mujahedeen into Georgia for the fear of upsetting the fragile peace in place now - although it has every right to do that.


And for those of you trumpeting glorious "democratic" Georgia and their decisions about NATO and becoming American allies - think again. Saakashvilli is a classic example of a dictator hiding under a thin veil of democracy, much like so-called American allies in Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. Half of the country hates him and his regime, and since the early nineties Georgia has been on the brink of Civil War. The previous president - Shevarnadze survived dozens of assassination attempts. And when that civil war breaks out, you better hope US doesn't get involved, because a conflict in the South Caucasus could make even Iraq look like a playground. Georgia is far from a stable country you would want to be a member of NATO. It has 3 completely different regimes in the last 15 years, with agendas changing dramatically between each one. And by all indications Saakashvilli's administration will be overthrown sooner or later, and Georgia could improve relations with Russia once again.

The situation there is far too delicate for the Yanks to understand. You are not gonna solve this by supply Saakashvilli's regime with arms and money - as you do know (surprise surprise). You are not gonna enable him to hold power indefinitely. And you have little to no idea what South Ossetia or Abkhazia are, how the wars there started, and how the relative peace is kept now. Georgia will never be a long-time US ally, and US will never have a place in the Caucasus.

[edit on 7-8-2007 by maloy]