Arithmetic, Population and Energy

Many of you may have seen this before (Since it's older) but I don't recall ever seeing this linked here. It's a lecture by Dr. Albert Bartlett from the University of Colorado in Boulder. He discusses the ridiculous notion that we can continue as we are today expecting to keep growing in population, or expecting our energy needs to be fulfilled as our demand increases. The only possible solution is to stop growth which means, yes it means a peak of oil production. Many of you don't' want to hear this, but it is a mathematical fact. We can not continue a growth in oil production. It's physically impossible.

You can find a link to this video, audio, and transcript here -->> Dr. Albert Bartlett: Arithmetic, Population and Energy. You can also find this video broken up into 8 parts if you wish to watch it on YouTube. Just search for "Albert Barlett".


I guarantee that once you finish watching this you'll scratch your head and say "Holy H-E Double Hockey Sticks"! The facts are pretty hard to ignore. We can not continue to increase production. It has to eventually peak. For example....

Bacteria grow by doubling. One bacterium divides to become two, the two divide to become 4, the 4 become 8, 16 and so on. Suppose we had bacteria that doubled in number this way every minute. Suppose we put one of these bacteria into an empty bottle at 11:00 in the morning, and then observe that the bottle is full at 12:00 noon. There's our case of just ordinary steady growth: it has a doubling time of one minute, it’s in the finite environment of one bottle.

.... at what time was the bottle half full? Well, would you believe 11:59, one minute before 12:00? Because they double in number every minute.

And the second question: if you were an average bacterium in that bottle, at what time would you first realize you were running of space? Well, let’s just look at the last minutes in the bottle. At 12:00 noon, it’s full; one minute before, it’s half full; 2 minutes before, it’s a quarter full; then an 1?8th; then a 1?16th. Let me ask you, at 5 minutes before 12:00, when the bottle is only 3% full and is 97% open space just yearning for development, how many of you would realise there’s a problem?

Now I ask you, if we're beginning to see symptoms of peak oil, what time is it? Global oil production has been flat or declining since 2005.(See this post) We may already be past the peak. Now watch the video and see what you think of the ideas presented. WARNING. Do not watch if you want to continue believing that peak oil is a myth.


[edit on 24-7-2007 by dbates]

Originally posted by dbates
Many of you may have seen this before (Since it's older) but I don't recall ever seeing this linked here. It's a lecture by Dr. Albert Bartlett from the University of Colorado in Boulder.

Another name i can add to my list...

He discusses the ridiculous notion that we can continue as we are today expecting to keep growing in population, or expecting our energy needs to be fulfilled as our demand increases.

Well i do not see why that is ridiculous even if you wish to exclude vacuum,ZP solar, wind or energy from the calculation. Why do we keep finding more efficient conventional means of producing energy and why do the majority of the now vastly greater population of the Earth still live better than they did a thousand years ago? What on Earth suggests that this can not go on as is if we could keep our various leaders from getting us involved in ever more pointless and destructive wars?

The only possible solution is to stop growth which means, yes it means a peak of oil production.

What does growth and the lies about a peak in oil-in-the-ground have to do with each other?

Many of you don't' want to hear this, but it is a mathematical fact. We can not continue a growth in oil production. It's physically impossible.

That's just nonsense and there is absolutely no math, that involves observed reality at least, that suggests a peak in oil any decade soon.

You can find a link to this video, audio, and transcript here -->> Dr. Albert Bartlett: Arithmetic, Population and Energy. You can also find this video broken up into 8 parts if you wish to watch it on YouTube. Just search for "Albert Barlett".

I would rather not waste more hours of my life watching propaganda of this variety so if you could sum up what makes his 'facts' any more accurate than those normally presented i will spend whatever time is required to show you all the facts he simply refuses to acknowledge.

I guarantee that once you finish watching this you'll scratch your head and say "Holy H-E Double Hockey Sticks"!

And all good propaganda flicks will have that effect on the ignorant and especially so when it involves the end of 'things as we know it'. When you start sticking around to defend these horrendous lies you present as facts i will address specific issues but i do not see why i should address the same old claims as presented by a new propagandist.

The facts are pretty hard to ignore.

If they were true they would be but since they are not i can show everyone interested just how easy it is.

We can not continue to increase production. It has to eventually peak. For example....

We can and have so far and this despite wars, genocide and a well organized attempt by very powerful factions to ensure oil scarcity.

And the second question: if you were an average bacterium in that bottle, at what time would you first realize you were running of space? Well, let’s just look at the last minutes in the bottle. At 12:00 noon, it’s full; one minute before, it’s half full; 2 minutes before, it’s a quarter full; then an 1?8th; then a 1?16th. Let me ask you, at 5 minutes before 12:00, when the bottle is only 3% full and is 97% open space just yearning for development, how many of you would realise there’s a problem?

Human beings are not bacterium and it's very revealing that such examples are used to 'explain' this to us. People who view the exponential growth of humanity in such terms should in my opinion be lined up and dealt with as i can but imagine how much Nazi literature they have read and they hours they spend coming up with more efficient ways of 'reducing growth' , as they would say.

Now I ask you, if we're beginning to see symptoms of peak oil, what time is it?

We are not so it's a rather irrelvent question. We have had the technology to tap vacuum energy since around 1885 and i refuse to believe in scarcity because it's so efficiently forced on us.

Global oil production has been flat or declining since 2005.(

And oil were cheaper per barrel in 1981 than it was in 2005 and the price recently dropped to 8USD per barrel in 1998; if you wish to believe in the ludicrous notion that oil in the ground is somehow and suddenly running out ( Are the Aliens stealing it?) feel free but this is pretty much how i am going to respond.

See this post) We may already be past the peak.

So the sky may have already fallen on our heads like it did in 1980 and 1985 and 1987 and 1991 and 1997 and 2001 and 2003 and etc? When will the peak oil crowd accept the fact that the internet exists and that we can now check up on how many times they have cried wolf in the last thirty years?

Now watch the video and see what you think of the ideas presented.

I'm pretty sure i would have hated it so feel free to convince me that this is any better than all the other related scaremongering i have had to sit trough...

WARNING. Do not watch if you want to continue believing that peak oil is a myth.

I know it's a myth , wolves eating grandma's is far more realistic, and while peak oil would probably help bring in alternative technologies and better environmental policies i wont be part of a lie. As i stands they are clearly not going to use the created scarcity to change the world for the better but instead consolidate the control they already have by forcing us to give up the freedom we have gained by the relative abundance of cheap energy western citizens already enjoys.

Stellar

As you may or may not have noticed, oil futures were trading at a new record high today. That says something I think.

If we keep finding these cheaper more efficient energy sources, they why do 90% of our cars run on oil still? There's a concept flaw with your side of the discussion. I would love to see us use another mode of energy for transportation but it's just not there. These fantastic ideas you have are just sitting on shelves in laboratories. Meanwhile we're still driving around in cars that burn oil to get energy.

To sum up the video it's pointing out how we can't continue to have a growth in oil production that will meet our ever-growing demand. The bacteria example was just an analogy that he uses. I think the guy has an issue with the current human population, but I'm avoiding that part of his presentation to focus on the oil issue.

He first points out that given a growth rate you can calculate the doubling time by multiplying the rate by 70 (approximately 100 multiplied by the natural logarithm of two). Then he points out that "the growth in any doubling time is greater than the total of all the preceding growth". Once these ideas are established he shows how silly it is to believe that we can continue with a steady growth of anything at all.

Now, if this current modest 1.3% per year(Growth of human population) could continue, the world population would grow to a density of one person per square meter on the dry land surface of the earth in just 780 years, and the mass of people would equal the mass of the earth in just 2400 years. Well, we can smile at those, we know they couldn't happen. This one make for a cute cartoon; the caption says, “Excuse me sir, but I am prepared to make you a rather attractive offer for your square.”

Originally posted by dbates
As you may or may not have noticed, oil futures were trading at a new record high today. That says something I think.

So where a a great many other things we KNOW are not running out any time soon.

If we keep finding these cheaper more efficient energy sources, they why do 90% of our cars run on oil still?

Because free or nearly free energy means people will put up with less and less interference in their lives leaving those who seek control over us with far fewer tools to manipulate us. Oil is not about profit or 'greed' but about control and that's why governments aid big business is suppressing cheaper energy sources as best they can and these artificial and propagandized 'shortages' are just evidence that they are losing control faster than they expected.

There's a concept flaw with your side of the discussion. I would love to see us use another mode of energy for transportation but it's just not there.

Since you are a moderator there is no excuse for not being aware of all the free energy technologies and machines out there and i would like you to stop pretending that they do not exist in a vain effort to support a weak argument.

These fantastic ideas you have are just sitting on shelves in laboratories. Meanwhile we're still driving around in cars that burn oil to get energy.

And they will stay on the shelves if people like you keep denying their reality and insist that oil is running out to boot. Do you have anything positive, to say nothing of what is in my opinion accurate, to add or is it all doom in gloom when it comes to your views of future energy supplies?

To sum up the video it's pointing out how we can't continue to have a growth in oil production that will meet our ever-growing demand.

Which assumes that the worlds population will keep growing which is simply not something that the spread of prosperity is showing to be accurate. When people become more affluent they have less and less kids as there is no longer the requirement for more children to increase the odds of wealth creation trough adding to the families labour 'pool'. I do not understand why some people think that more human beings are a bad thing never mentioning that a few hundred million more skilled and industrious people will only add to the wealth we could all share in.

The bacteria example was just an analogy that he uses. I think the guy has an issue with the current human population, but I'm avoiding that part of his presentation to focus on the oil issue.

I think you would be well advised to consider the implications of his not so absent minded analogy and then consider the thinking process involved in wanting to 'save' humanity from the 'problem' of 'overpopulation'. Frankly it sickens me that people who subconsciously consider the humanity to be 'bacteria' should even get airtime but it just again shows what sort of information people must be fed so many to end up hating themselves and the species their part of.

He first points out that given a growth rate you can calculate the doubling time by multiplying the rate by 70 (approximately 100 multiplied by the natural logarithm of two). Then he points out that "the growth in any doubling time is greater than the total of all the preceding growth". Once these ideas are established he shows how silly it is to believe that we can continue with a steady growth of anything at all.

And unless he employs actual math, logic ,facts, or even just statistics, instead of a crystal ball, i wont be able to watch that video without swearing more than i care to.

Now, if this current modest 1.3% per year(Growth of human population) could continue, the world population would grow to a density of one person per square meter on the dry land surface of the earth in just 780 years, and the mass of people would equal the mass of the earth in just 2400 years. Well, we can smile at those, we know they couldn't happen. This one make for a cute cartoon; the caption says, “Excuse me sir, but I am prepared to make you a rather attractive offer for your square.”

JUST 780 years?

In 2000, the United Nations estimated that the world's population was then growing at the rate of 1.14% (or about 75 million people) per year[7]. According to data from the CIA's 2005–2006 World Factbooks, the world human population currently increases by 203,800 every day.[8] The 2007 CIA factbook increased this to 211,090 people every day.

Globally, the population growth rate has been steadily declining from its peak of 2.19% in 1963, but growth remains high in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa.[9]

en.wikipedia.org...

Fact is 1.3 is VERY high end estimate and if we have anything to do with it the democratic struggle for self determination may lead to a declining world population before the end of the next century. Imagining the craziest scenario i can i still know about the billions of planets out there that are just awaiting colonization and exploitation. If we are going to talk about bacteria and such lets at least be realistic and admit that bacteria as we know it can, under not so rigid circumstances survive, interstellar travel and it's just strange to presume that humanity will still be stuck here in 700 odd years.

Stellar

Why did this lecture get ignored?

Are people really that brainwashed to think there's a "techno-fix" -- the "techno-fix" is included in the math!!

at 7% growth rate of energy use there is a DOUBLING of demand every 10 years.

So that's cumulative growth. That means each 10 years has to be MORE than all previous energy use by industrial civilization - the past 200 years or so.

So it's impossible for any new oil discoveries, any new coal, any new ANYTHING (insert techno-fix here) to cover the cumulative growth rate.