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Originally posted by melatonin
Not so. There are periods where GHGs seem to lead temperature (e.g. PETM and mid-cretaceous).
Explanations evoking ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns radically different from today have been proposed to explain the climate of the mid-Cretaceous; however, there is no scientific consensus on how the Mid-Cretaceous warm climate came about.
Originally posted by melatonin
Not so. This is actually supportive of a GHG effect. As this is when most heat escapes from the surface. The GHGs are helping to keep this heat in the troposphere.
Originally posted by melatonin
I feel dirty posting from foxnews, but hey-ho.
Originally posted by melatonin
Who says the oceans are cooling?
Recent cooling of the upper ocean
John M. Lyman
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA, Seattle, Washington, USA
Josh K. Willis
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
Gregory C. Johnson
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA, Seattle, Washington, USA
Abstract
We observe a net loss of 3.2 (±1.1) × 1022 J of heat from the upper ocean between 2003 and 2005. Using a broad array of in situ ocean measurements, we present annual estimates of global upper-ocean heat content anomaly from 1993 through 2005. Including the recent downturn, the average warming rate for the entire 13-year period is 0.33 ± 0.23 W/m2 (of the Earth's total surface area). A new estimate of sampling error in the heat content record suggests that both the recent and previous global cooling events are significant and unlikely to be artifacts of inadequate ocean sampling.
Received 26 May 2006; accepted 11 August 2006; published 20 September 2006.
Originally posted by melatonin
Muaddib, remember there is only one period in 400 million years or so where there seems to be a real lack of relationship, however, as Berner states, it is very likely that even this period is entirely consistent. We just need higher resolution data.
Originally posted by melatonin
As for the gagging stuff. I think you have a few nutcases sending death-threats, a weatherwoman who seems to be a bit noughty, and a scientific community that doesn't like people who distort, lie, and spread disinformation, like Tim Ball, a known liar. The latter are using a form of peer-pressure. Yeah, peer-pressure to be an honest broker of science is such a bad thing, heh.
Originally posted by melatonin
So, in one post, we have two incorrect statements (CO2 always lags; night time warming anti-GHG), a misinterpretation (I stated something about Clark having only one paper), and the obligatory 440million year issue.
Same old, same old, eh?
Greenhouse warming, in which heat is trapped by gases from fossil
fuel burning, occurs both day and night and cannot alone explain
the trend, they say.
Originally posted by Muaddib
Originally posted by melatonin
Who says the oceans are cooling?
I excerpted some articles that point to that happening melatonin.
Recent cooling of the upper ocean
John M. Lyman
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA, Seattle, Washington, USA
Josh K. Willis
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
Gregory C. Johnson
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA, Seattle, Washington, USA
www.agu.org...
Correction to “Recent Cooling of the Upper Ocean”
Josh K. Willis1, John M. Lyman2,3, Gregory C. Johnson2 and John Gilson4
Revised and Resubmitted 10 July 2007 to Geophysical Research Letters
Abstract.
Two systematic biases have been discovered in the ocean temperature data used by Lyman et al. [2006]. These biases are both substantially larger than sampling errors estimated in Lyman et al. [2006], and appear to be the cause of the rapid cooling reported in that work.
Originally posted by melatonin
I have asked you to support your claim. I have presented one quote that I personally transcribed from the documentary that speaks to the historical relationship between CO2 and temperature, as that was the one I clearly remembered. If it wasn't the one you were specifically focusing on, I'm soooo very sorry.
If you want me to transcribe a whole 10 or so minute slot, I'm sorry dude, I have better things to do. It was your claim, you should support it. Same for muaddib.
Originally posted by melatonin
I can only go by Inconvenient Truth, which was also what your thread focused on.
He says during the 650,000 year data:
"the relationship is actually very complicated, but there is one relationship that is far more powerful than all the others. And that is when there is more carbon dioxide, the temperatures get warmer, because it traps more heat from the sun inside"
OK, sounds a bit amateurish, but he's about right. He doesn't say CO2 causes glacial warming, just that when there is more CO2, it gets warmer, which it does. CO2 contributed as a positive feedback. Just like water vapour is now. And I know you accept WV affects climate
Originally posted by melatonin
Originally posted by IgnoranceIsntBlisss
So what did he say before that, and what was he referring to?
well, he said a lot of things before that, and I don't think I'll transcribe it all, heh.
He was referring to the 650,000 year data for temperature and CO2.
Originally posted by melatonin
Look, you seem to want this much more convoluted than it need be.
Originally posted by IgnoranceIsntBlisss
What about Gore claiming that the HUGE line graphs prove that CO2 drives temp? As long as you can admit that Gore too is a BS artist is all I've been shooting for...
Originally posted by melatonin
Don't you love it when a cunning plan comes together?
Originally posted by melatonin
OK, If you haven't realised I'm doing this bit by bit, next...
PETM is suggested to be due to an emission of methane clathrates, yes?
I'll wait till we sort this before moving on.
Originally posted by Muaddib
Melatonin, don't try to back out now, you were wrong, there was a triggering cause for the PETM, and one of the possible causes is gradual global warming before methane levels rose suddenly. It could also have been a comet impact, or volcanism.
High-resolution records of the late Paleocene thermal maximum
and circum-Caribbean volcanism: Is there a causal link?
T. J. Bralower
D. J.Thomas
J. C. Zachos
M. M. Hirschmann*
U. Röhl
H. Sigurdsson
E.Thomas
D. L. Whitney*
ABSTRACT
Two recently drilled Caribbean sites contain expanded sedimentary records of the late Paleocene thermal maximum, a dramatic global warming event that occurred at ca. 55 Ma. The records document significant environmental changes, including deep-water oxygen deficiency and a mass extinction of deep-sea fauna, intertwined with evidence for a major episode of explosive volcanism. We postulate that this volcanism initiated a reordering of ocean circulation that resulted in rapid global warming and dramatic changes in the Earth’s environment.
Oxygen-isotope data from this section record a gradual warming of the surface and thermocline waters of ca. 2 ◦C prior to the putative methane-dissociation event and dramatic temperature rise (ca. 4 ◦C). This more subtle and gradual warming event has been attributed to regional volcanism in the North Atlantic and/or Caribbean (Eldholm & Thomas 1993; Bralower et al . 1997). An alternative hypothesis, championed particularly by Katz et al . (2001), links the critical phase change within the gas-hydrate body to seismic activity causing mechanical disruption of the sedimentary prism in a number of places along the continental margin of eastern North America.
The geochemical fingerprint of methane is singular in that it is characterized by extremely low carbon-isotope ratios (δ13C ∼ 60 % or less): rapid introduction of this material into the oceans and atmosphere, and its subsequent near-immediate oxidation to CO2, leaves an obvious geochemical trace as well as potentially leading to global warming. Such effects, on millennial time-scales, have been postulated for the Quaternary of the Californian continental margin, based on both carbon-isotope changes in foraminifera (Kennett et al . 2000) and biomarkers in the sediments that indicate the former presence of aerobic and anaerobic methanotrophs (Hinrichs et al . 2003). Here the focus is on similar but apparently much larger events many tens of millions of years in the past.
Hence, any change in global temperatures at the onset of the Mesozoic Era, either gradual or rapid, and any possible relationship with the carbon cycle, is as yet unknown. Notable, however, is an association with the formation of a large igneous province, namely the Siberian Traps, suggesting that effusion of volcanogenic CO2 may have had a significant impact on climate at this time (Renne et al . 1995), and indeed could have triggered dissociation of gas hydrates through warming of bottom waters.
The Triassic–Jurassic boundary (ca. 200 Ma, after the time-scale of P´alfy et al . 2000) is marked by a major mass extinction and is characterized by palaeobotanical evidence for global warming. Such evidence derives from studies of changes in leaf morphology to more dissected forms as well as decreases in stomatal density and stomatal index in fossil plant cuticle from Greenland and Sweden: the changes observed have been taken to imply a fourfold increase in atmospheric CO2 over this interval (McElwain et al . 1999).
....
Detailed modelling by Beerling & Berner (2002) suggests that methane dissociation may be required to explain the carbon-isotopic and documented temperature response. They suggest that volcanism from the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province released some 8000–9000 GtC as CO2 and that dissociation of gas hydrate released another 5000 GtC as methane. In this model the initial negative carbonisotope excursion is assumed to take place over ca. 70 ka, in line with other putative methane-release events.
Originally posted by Muaddib
Oh wait a second, so now extrapolating data from different equipments results in large biases?...
Originally posted by melatonin
Back out, heh.
Yeah, volcanism....releasing tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere. That is one idea that lead to the release of clathrates
The geologic record shows that the resulting greenhouse effect heated the planet as a whole by about 9 F (5 C), in less than 10,000 years.
That temperature increase lasted about 170,000 years, altered the world's rainfall patterns, made the oceans acidic, affected plant and animal life in the seas and on land, and spawned the rise of our modern primate ancestors.
"The PETM is a stunning example of carbon dioxide-induced global warming and stands in contrast to critics who argue that the Earth's temperature is insensitive to increases in carbon dioxide," said Pagani. "Not only did the Earth warm by at least 9F (5C), but it did so during a time when Earth's average temperature was already 9F warmer than today."
Originally posted by IMAdamnALIEN
Umm so am I now inclined to believe that all the glaciers that were melting were photoshopped.
Come on people! The earth is changing whether man has anything to do with it or not. Global warming could be myth but it still doesn't change the fact that there is evidence of change.
Originally posted by Muaddib
Except for the fact that any major volcanic eruption would have released tons of dust particles into the atmosphere....producing cooling instead of warming...
The PETM is an enigmatic time period, and no one can say for certain what happened. Although evidence sugests that the around 9F warming of the whole Earth took 10,00 years...not to mention the fact that temperatures back then were already 9F warmer than they are today...
So yeah, I guess this gives credence to the claim that a mere doubling of CO2 will bring havoc to planet Earth heh melatonin?
yet CO2 levels did not change much. So how is it that suddenly a 0.01% increase in CO2 is all the cause for the current warming?
Originally posted by melatonin
When the data is giving systematic biases, it will give erroneous results. That is what the original authors found.
So, no cooling. It was a consequence of poorly calibrated equipment, and highlights why taking one single anomalous study at face value is a risky approach
Originally posted by melatonin
Sulphates rain out pretty quick. CO2 hangs around. It would mask the warming for a while though.
Originally posted by melatonin
.....................
But, the PETM is attributed to the action of GHGs. Thus, they do not always lag. Occassionally they lead. In fact, Berner suggests that on geological timescales, CO2 is likely the primary driver of climate. Not sure I would entirely agree, but I guess I should read his book to assess the reasons for this claim. Too much to read though ATM.
Anyway, should I move on?
Originally posted by melatonin
Why are we talking about Mann? We were talking about Ocean cooling...
Originally posted by melatonin
The correction to the data shows there is no cooling. It was a result of systematic biases in the source data.
Originally posted by melatonin
Mann's study has been validated by major scientific organisations, and is entirely consistent with numerous other multi-proxy reconstructions.
Can we try to keep on the issue at hand?
Originally posted by Muaddib
For nearly 10,000 years?....
Err, CO2 remains in the atmosphere at a rate of from around 50-100 years...yet it took nearly 10,000 years for CO2 levels to cause the warming during the PETM?....
Originally posted by Muaddib
And that's not exactly what they say btw...otherwise they would have removed the research.
They do claim that much of the cooling is because of a bias. But again i have to wonder if that bias was not actually a "pulling of strings" by some.
Both biases appear to have contributed equally to the
spurious cooling.
Originally posted by melatonin
Eh? The warming from a volcanic emission is what has been suggested to have resulted in oceanic changes and subsequent clathrate release.
Originally posted by melatonin
I don't think anyone said it took 10,000 years for the warming...
.............
Scientists have known there was significant turnover in mammals during this rapid period of global warming called the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, in which temperatures rose by perhaps as much as 10 degrees in the relatively short time span of 10,000 years, then lasting for another 80,000 to 100,000 years, Bloch said.
..............
Originally posted by melatonin
...............
It can stay around for a very long time, even tens of thousands of years.
Originally posted by melatonin
I suggest you read the correction.