Running out of oil faster than expected. War looms in the distance. zzzzz

the 'Peak Oil Theory' is only a small sub plot of the much grander "The End Game"

peak-oil = Olduvi Theory, Hubbert Peak,
2 proprietary papers meant to wrap int'l mega-oil with the mantle of
concerned citizen corporation/Stewards of Energy & Resources.

in other words, the profit & greed driving force, is now being modified
to remake the Int'l mega-oil corps. into fascist NGOs...
with the upper tier execuitives continuing to glut themselves with riches
but now expanding into the Oligarch class,



see; www.fryodiesel.com...
for a idea line that could/should/would have been created decades ago,
if the oil barrons had any concern for anything other than fantantastic profits for themselves and damm the environment for the peons of the social-economic order...

i won't even try to spit into the wind, by trying to explain things in an
A-B-C manner, google the phrases mentioned, construct your own intelligence road-map & see the lay of the land,
peak oil is a scam for the masses to accept & embrace mega-oil as the NWOs arm as an NGO fascist-oligarchy...
the wall between the elite ruling NWO & the huddled masses



ADD: the recent secret conclave meeting called Bilderberg
has stated that oil in the 2007-2008 time frame will be allowed
to rise between $105-150 per barrel ....

[edit on 4-7-2007 by St Udio]

StellarX - You are absolutely correct. I have been saying the same as you.

This sky is falling mentality about oil is about as real as Human induced global warming.

The only issue there is with oil is we cant refine it fast enough to keep up with production. There is NO shortage of oil. At all!

We keep finding more and more of it! lol! I know! Its my job!

Originally posted by donk_316
StellarX - You are absolutely correct. I have been saying the same as you.

It's probably the other way round as i am only agreeing with one group of experts instead of the group most commonly believed.

This sky is falling mentality about oil is about as real as Human induced global warming.

And i think their shared agenda's becomes obvious by the lack of solutions, to say nothing of humane and progressive, they tend to sell on the back of these doom and gloom scenarios.

The only issue there is with oil is we cant refine it fast enough to keep up with production. There is NO shortage of oil. At all!

"Wont" or is not allowed is in my knowledge far closer to the truth...

We keep finding more and more of it! lol! I know! Its my job!

I'm listening.

Stellar

I can't argue for or against peak oil, but the information used in the OP...

You cannot make claims about the state of oil production or supply using a 5-year period, especially when the "drop" is at the end. A reduction of exports for one year cannot be held up as proof of a looming oil shortage, even if there is an oil shortage. This simply is not proof. It's evidence, but it needs to be backed up by other data.

Now, several years of decreasing production would be proof that something is amiss. Of course you have the catch that the longer you wait, the harder it is to fix the problem.

Sadly the front windshield is smeared with oil and only the rear-view mirror is working. We can only see what happened in the past. You're absolutely correct but we do have one other indicator that helps out our vision. World oil demand. It's increased steadily so there's no need for the we've seen decline over the last couple of years. Even if it is just a slight decline there's something wrong with that when the demand keeps increasing.

Originally posted by dbates
Sadly the front windshield is smeared with oil and only the rear-view mirror is working. We can only see what happened in the past. You're absolutely correct but we do have one other indicator that helps out our vision. World oil demand. It's increased steadily so there's no need for the we've seen decline over the last couple of years. Even if it is just a slight decline there's something wrong with that when the demand keeps increasing.

Fact is world oil demand have have been growing and only showed slower growth when oil prices rose suddenly; this is certainly no evidence that oil in the ground is running out. For two decades oil reserves have grown faster than consumption and there is little evidence, and then very one sided if not just purely speculative, that this trend will change any decade soon or at all. If you want to talk about the relationship between economic downturns and oil prices we can do that but i don't believe you should so readily jump to assuming implications for future oil supplies.

Stellar

WASHINGTON — "The Iraq war is largely about oil," former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan says in his new book -- an assertion disputed by lawmakers and the U.S. Defense secretary.
latimes.com

Wow! Chairman Greenspan has just summed up what I've been saying for years. What's amusing is that he's just stating what everyone already knows. It was always about securing oil supplies. Not necessarily to take over oil supplies but to make sure that no one interfered with the oil supply.

The real fight over oil comes later. Iraq is just the opening shot in the war. on terror oil supply.

Originally posted by dbates

WASHINGTON — "The Iraq war is largely about oil," former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan says in his new book -- an assertion disputed by lawmakers and the U.S. Defense secretary.

latimes.com

Good time to start trusting this old liar, Dbates.. Sure one can say the war in Iraq were about oil but was it to increase the already massive reserves of the US or the ensure that the world's oil supplies are regulated so as to avoid slumps to 8 USD per barrel type of prices that reigned in 1998?

Wow! Chairman Greenspan has just summed up what I've been saying for years.

He is saying that the war was related to oil but not how and that is still the crux of the issue.

What's amusing is that he's just stating what everyone already knows. It was always about securing oil supplies. Not necessarily to take over oil supplies but to make sure that no one interfered with the oil supply.

And more specifically to ensure that no one got too much of it too soon thus lowering global prices regimes...

The real fight over oil comes later. Iraq is just the opening shot in the war. on terror oil supply.

The fight over oil has been going for decades as some western countries and agents have persistently and consistently tried to lower world production by starting wars, preventing investment and generally disrupting economies.

The war in Iraq is surely in part related to oil, keeping it from the people of the world, and while i no longer think it was the preeminent consideration it's certainly part and parcel.

Stellar

reply to post by StellarX

You do know your links either don't work or are from 2004? You were saying the same crap on my thread With Oil At Record Highs, Talk Of $200 A Barrel Your not going to win any arguments based on old news or reports.

Peak oil is here. Inflation does not account for the 8x increase in the last 10 years.

StellarX is it you do believe in peak oil, but the shortages will not occur until 50 years or so??

I think we are living in it. Here and Now

Interesting Peak Oil discussion. I want to bring some critical economic facts to the debate, because I believe they our the true indicators of what is going on with the oil supply.

I am not interested in antibiotic oil, corporate conspiracies, etc. just the facts please!

Below is EIA, daily monthly average of oil supply

World Oil Supply

2001 January 78,181
2001 February 78,053
2001 March 78,765
2001 April 77,766
2001 May 77,264
2001 June 75,867
2001 July 77,866
2001 August 78,106
2001 September 77,626
2001 October 77,577
2001 November 77,864
2001 December 77,257
2002 January 76,395
2002 February 76,521
2002 March 76,314
2002 April 75,878
2002 May 76,724
2002 June 76,527
2002 July 76,995
2002 August 76,796
2002 September 77,336
2002 October 78,764
2002 November 78,867
2002 December 76,795
2003 January 77,316
2003 February 79,057
2003 March 79,535
2003 April 78,491
2003 May 78,673
2003 June 78,028
2003 July 78,903
2003 August 79,455
2003 September 80,360
2003 October 81,294
2003 November 81,464
2003 December 82,751
2004 January 82,206
2004 February 82,206
2004 March 81,992
2004 April 81,841
2004 May 81,595
2004 June 83,582
2004 July 84,178
2004 August 83,222
2004 September 83,795
2004 October 84,601
2004 November 84,402
2004 December 83,850
2005 January 84,060
2005 February 84,438
2005 March 84,566
2005 April 84,958
2005 May 85,379
2005 June 84,897
2005 July 84,533
2005 August 84,847
2005 September 84,151
2005 October 84,146
2005 November 84,894
2005 December 84,702
2006 January 84,525
2006 February 84,524
2006 March 84,061
2006 April 84,383
2006 May 84,235
2006 June 84,208
2006 July 85,540
2006 August 85,303
2006 September 84,889
2006 October 85,135
2006 November 84,585
2006 December 84,382
2007 January 84,021
2007 February 84,344
2007 March 84,114
2007 April 84,591
2007 May 84,354
2007 June 84,501

As you can see, July 2006 was the "peak" of daily monthly average production of 85,540,000 barrels per day. The link below has a chart for Light Crude prices, it just happens that the peak price was reached in July, '06 before we reached recent new records.

Crude Prices

It appears to me that July '06 maybe the peak until proven otherwise by the data. Does this mean we will run out of oil or see hugh price spikes?


Maybe, depends if there is a crisis in the Middle East or Nigeria. However, if there is a recession demand will decline and so will production. I think all we can do is continue to monitor the data. I am going to use July '06 and 85,540,000 barrels per day as the bench mark that must be beat.

Dbates maybe you should change the title of the tread to "Peak Oil was in July '06!"

Originally posted by LDragonFire
You do know your links either don't work

In your response you can point out which did not work and if you were in fact unable to google for the data yourself.

or are from 2004?

So the hell what? What is wrong with 2004 data? Did we use up those trillions of barrels of reserve since 2004?

You were saying the same crap on my thread

Yup and after the weekend i will address all that same oil nonsense by the same old peak oil myth makers.

With Oil At Record Highs, Talk Of $200 A Barrel Your not going to win any arguments based on old news or reports.

Oil prices are not at record highs in real dollar terms so please.... It is also quite impossible to 'win' arguments with people who refuse to address data while just stating their same old claims over and over again. Please explain to the crowd why the peak oilers have been claiming the end of oil for three decades now with absolutely nothing coming of it. Please explain why oil supples are still growing much faster than usage.

Peak oil is here.

Peak oil is not here and no one that employs any valid information have ever been able to support that idea.

Inflation does not account for the 8x increase in the last 10 years.

Obviously not and obviously the price SLUMPED to 8 USD and is now still in real USD terms only marginally higher than peaks in the 70's and early 80'. There really is no evidence to suggest a peak but there is PLENTY of evidence to suggest market manipulation and price gauging.

StellarX is it you do believe in peak oil, but the shortages will not occur until 50 years or so??

That is what the most conservative geological data tells us, yes.

I think we are living in it. Here and Now

I care what you can support and prove , not what you think or clearly wish to believe. Please stick to the facts ( meaning what Simmons, Rupert, Campell, Laherre has to say should be disregarded ) and stop referring to the same 'clique' that i supposedly exposing a 'fraud' on the world that is not supported by the sligthest bit of evidence.

To look at prices is at best circumstantial evidence ( Why is there no peak coal with it having been used so much longer?) and until you can do better i suggest you go back to the drawing board.

Stellar

Originally posted by mel1962
Interesting Peak Oil discussion. I want to bring some critical economic facts to the debate, because I believe they our the true indicators of what is going on with the oil supply.

Why do you believe they are critical? What evidence do you have to present that suggest that demand and supply is fact related when it comes to oil?

I am not interested in antibiotic oil,

Antibiotic oil? That's pretty funny.

corporate conspiracies, etc. just the facts please!

So corporations that would make vast profits when oil prices rise will simply do nothing to make them rise? Why would corporations not act in self interested ways and why is that a 'conspiracy' instead of just old fashioned capitalism?

Below is EIA, daily monthly average of oil supply
As you can see, July 2006 was the "peak" of daily monthly average production of 85,540,000 barrels per day.

Sure but what does that have to do with how much oil was available to be sold if buyers could be found given the current high prices? Why would the market keep growing when the price forces so many from driving and generally using oil based products? What the peak oilers must prove is that the prices are rising because there are oil in the ground shortages and that they have never come close to.

The link below has a chart for Light Crude prices, it just happens that the peak price was reached in July, '06 before we reached recent new records.

Crude Prices

Peak price in current dollars or 1970 dollars? I mean what standards are we employing here?

But today crude is selling for $55 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price rise has just started to hit consumers in the form of higher gas prices. On Friday, Greenspan added his voice to the chorus, noting oil prices adjusted for inflation were still not as high as they were in the early 1980s and that, no, the world is not "running out of oil."

The chairman concluded: "So far this year, the rise in the value of imported oil--essentially a tax on U.S. residents--has amounted to about three-quarters of one percent of gross domestic product. The effects were far larger in the crises of the 1970s. But, obviously, the risk of more serious negative consequences would intensify if oil prices were to move materially higher

www.eia.doe.gov...

U.S. crude oil production, which declined following the oil price collapse of late 1985/early 1986, leveled off in the mid-1990s, and began falling again following the sharp decline in oil prices of late 1997/early 1998. During 2004, the United States produced around 7.6 million barrels per day (bbl/d) of oil, of which 5.4 million bbl/d was crude oil, 1.8 million bbl/d was natural gas liquids and 0.4 million bbl/d was other liquids. This compares to the 10.6 million bbl/d averaged during 1985. U.S. crude oil production, which averaged 5.4 million bbl/d during the first eight months of 2005, is now at 50-year lows.

www.energybulletin.net...

How can oil price collapses happen when we are running out of oil? Why would any sane person believe in such a nonsensical claim?

So why everyday non conspiratorial explanations are there for the current higher prices?

The recent doubling of prices, Lynch argues, was set in motion four years ago; the 2002 strike by Venezuelan oil workers has kept 1 million or so barrels per day off that country's output of 3.25 million bpd. The subsequent application of socialist economics to the Venezuelan fields has done little to bring that volume back.

The trouble in Venezuela was followed by the U.S. invasion of Iraq, resulting in another 1 million bpd reduction to an average 2 million. In 2004 China sent out petroripples by pushing up its consumption by nearly 1 million bpd to 7.4 million. Add in the unrest in Nigeria, which knocked another 500,000 bpd off-line, and the world suddenly had 4% less oil than it expected. By mid-2005 every producer except Saudi Arabia was pumping flat out. The Saudis had 1.5 million bpd of spare production capacity--oil spigots on standby--and it was less desirable heavy crude. The spot markets reflected the unease as traders braced for the next disaster. They got it in hurricanes Katrina and Rita, which knocked 700,000 bpd or so off-line. Still, says Lynch, "These were all one-time transient events that can be fixed or adjusted to." There's reassuring evidence of adjustment from both supply and demand.

Consider supply. Since 2003, industry spending on exploration and production has exploded from $169 billion to $277 billion last year, according to consultancy John S. Herold. Rental rates for some drilling rigs have quadrupled to more than $300,000 a day. New oil is coming from almost everywhere, a mix of big and small, OPEC and non-OPEC. In the U.K.'s North Sea fields, for example, Apache (nyse: APA - news - people ) Energy is using new recovery techniques to revive production in a basin thought to be in terminal decline. Oil from a 1-million-bpd field in Azerbaijan recently hit the world markets, flowing through the new $10 billion Baku-to-Ceyhan pipeline. In Angola offshore fields could start pumping 500,000 bpd next year, and deepwater fields off Brazil will add hundreds of thousands more, as will onshore fields in Algeria. On the horizon: In the Gulf of Mexico, Chevron (nyse: CVX - news - people ), Devon Energy (nyse: DVN - news - people ) and Statoil recently discovered fields in an area thought to hold from 3 billion to 15 billion barrels (equivalent) of oil and gas reserves. Lynch calculates that global production capacity will expand by a net 2 million bpd this year and 3 million bpd in 2007.

www.forbes.com...

On November 13, 2001, President George W. Bush announced that the SPR would be filled, saying, "The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is an important element of our Nation's energy security. To maximize long-term protection against oil supply disruptions, I am directing...the Secretary of Energy to fill the SPR up to its 700 million barrel [111,000,000 m³] capacity."[1] The highest prior level was reached in 1994 with 592 million barrels (94 million m³). At the time of President Bush's directive, the SPR contained about 545 million barrels (87 million m³). Since the directive in 2001, the capacity of the SPR increased by 27 million barrels (4.3 million m³) due to natural enlargement of the salt caverns in which the reserves are stored. The Energy Policy Act of 2005 has since directed the Secretary of Energy to fill the SPR to the full 1 billion barrel authorized capacity, a process which will require a physical expansion of the Reserve's facilities.

On August 17, 2005, the SPR reached its goal of 700 million barrels (111,000,000 m³), or about 96% of its now-increased 727 million barrel capacity. Approximately 60% of the crude oil in the reserve is the less desirable sour (high sulfur content) variety. The oil delivered to the reserve is "royalty-in-kind" oil—royalties owed to the U.S. government by operators who acquire leases on the federally owned Outer Continental Shelf in the Gulf of Mexico. These royalties were previously collected as cash, but in 1998 the government began testing the effectiveness of collecting royalties "in kind" - or in other words, acquiring the crude oil itself. This mechanism was adopted when refilling the SPR began, and once filling is completed, revenues from the sale of future royalties will be paid into the Federal treasury.

On January 23, 2007, President George W. Bush suggested in his state of the union speech that congress should approve expansion of the current reserve capacity to twice its current level.

en.wikipedia.org...

The combination of just those few factors took quite a volume of excess capacity off the market and given the earlier oil price collapse, and the then decline in capacity to stimulate prices, and the relatively quick rise in demand did create the conditions that allowed for high prices. Why some ignorants believe this to be due to a absence of oil in the ground is entirely beyond me.

It appears to me that July '06 maybe the peak until proven otherwise by the data.

There is no logical connection between the facts presented and the conclusion and i would like you to avoid such a blatant non sequitur.

Continued

Does this mean we will run out of oil or see hugh price spikes?

We wont be running out of oil:

WASHINGTON, DC, June 21 -- BP PLC tried recently to quell renewed concerns by some industry observers that world oil reserves are running out sooner than expected.

"2003 was a turbulent year in the world's energy markets, with supply disruptions, strong growth in both demand and production of oil and coal, and the highest prices in the oil and gas markets for 20 years," said BP Chief Economist Peter Davies.

However, he said, "The high prices were not driven by fundamental resource shortages: In 2003, the world's reserves of oil and natural gas continued their long term trend of growing faster than production."

BP: World oil and gas reserves still growing at healthy pace

At 2003 consumption levels [2], the remaining reserves represent 44.6 years of oil and 66.2 years of natural gas. Does this mean that the world will be out of fossil fuels in 50 years or so? That theory has been around since the 1970s. In fact, the figures for years of remaining reserves have remained relative constant over the past few decades as the industry has replaced consumption with newly discovered oil and gas deposits and has developed technologies to increase the amount of oil and gas that can be recovered from existing reservoirs.

No one can know for certain how much oil and gas remains to be discovered. But geologists sometimes make educated guesses. For example, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts periodic assessments of U.S. mineral resources. In its most recent assessment (1995), the USGS estimated that the onshore U.S., including Alaska, has undiscovered, technically recoverable resources of 112.3 billion barrels of oil and 1,074 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. In a separate assessment of offshore resources completed in 2000, the U.S. Minerals Management Service (MMS) estimated that 75 billion barrels of oil and 362 trillion cubic feet of natural gas underlie the areas off the coasts of the U.S. The USGS and MMS resource assessments make clear that, despite being a very mature producing area, substantial resources still exist in the U.S.

World oil resources to 2025 may be more than two times current reserves, based on an estimate from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) using USGS data. Reserve growth of 730 billion barrels accounts for new discoveries and the expansion of what can be recovered from known reservoirs due to advances in technology and improvements in economics. But EIA estimates that in 2025, countries around the globe will still have more than 900 billion barrels of oil remaining to be discovered. EIA estimates total world oil resources at more than 2.9 trillion barrels of oil.

How much oil and natural gas i left?

But the price spikes might very well occur :

www.consumerwatchdog.org...

wyden.senate.gov...

www.10news.com...

feinstein.senate.gov...

Maybe, depends if there is a crisis in the Middle East or Nigeria. However, if there is a recession demand will decline and so will production. I think all we can do is continue to monitor the data.

A crisis is logically going to upset supply given how expensive it is to maintain excess capacity and what we should be doing is preventing some governments from instigating terrorism and the type of problems that disrupts world supplies.

I am going to use July '06 and 85,540,000 barrels per day as the bench mark that must be beat.

Why?

Dbates maybe you should change the title of the tread to "Peak Oil was in July '06!"

But according to at least a few experts it's happened long before that date. You can't just go around picking arbitrary dates and you really need to decide which particular peak profit your going to 'trust' with your future!

Bah!

Stellar

reply to post by StellarX


StellarX you love to deal in propaganda and bs, good luck to you. My facts are from the official agencies. Don't bother me with your boring arguments on hearsay and bs! Save it for the less educated, Mr. Scholar and I believe in the Green Valleys of Mars!



[edit on 9/22/07 by mel1962]

Originally posted by mel1962
StellarX you love to deal in propaganda and bs, good luck to you.

As if i need 'luck' when supposedly dealing in Bs and propaganda. Do you think the Bushes and their propaganda machine fools so many people world wide because they are 'lucky'?

My facts are from the official agencies.

So are mine and i suggest you actually open the links before commenting on them.

Don't bother me with your boring arguments on hearsay and bs!

So your defense of your own ignorance consist of asking me not to bother you with reality?

Save it for the less educated, Mr. Scholar and I believe in the Green Valleys of Mars!

Ditto , about the less educated, and for the sake of accuracy you should probably add the question mark you left out.

Fact is you date for 'peak oil' is entirely arbitrary and unless you can introduce some actual logical and factual context it will remain so.

Stellar

StellarX I'm not going to split hairs with you, we both believe in the peak oil theory but you think the shortages will come later, I think sooner.

One of us will be proven right or wrong soon.

I do think the OP and I will be proven right.

I have to admit I skimmed and did not read articles, but If this has not been discussed, could refining capacity be the reason for short term limiting oil production, you can only put through the system as much as you can refine.

Hydrogen fuel cell, we should be using this today.

Originally posted by LDragonFire
StellarX I'm not going to split hairs with you,

Since you are splitting hairs with reality and not me...

we both believe in the peak oil theory but you think the shortages will come later, I think sooner.

I never said that there would ever be a peak oil but that such a thing could not happen naturally in the next fifty years...

One of us will be proven right or wrong soon.

I actually understand the subject matter i am discussing so i don't have to 'wait and see' if the experts told the truth or not. If you are not similarly well informed there is no reason not to do what you must until you are.

I do think the OP and I will be proven right.

And if you were actually well informed enough to have arrived at such a conclusion by yourself i could respect your opinion. Since you are just regurgitating CNN propaganda on this particular subject i will object whenever i notice you sharing information you never bothered to check as well as you are clearly able.

Stellar