Is it possible that Iran already has nukes?

Originally posted by pavil

Originally posted by AwakeAndAllSeeing
I don't think they have them, or are stupid enough to build one.

As soon as they build one, they get bombed.
Even with a nuke they have no ability to strike the US with it.

What makes you think the U.S. is Iran's primary target? It's pretty plain who they intentd to wipe off the map.

It's a concept called mutually assured destruction. And you're reading a lot into figurative rhetoric.
So far, Iran doesn't have the capability to deliver a high yield nuclear device to Israel either. Iran hasn't even tested a low yield nuclear weapon.
The technology exists to figure out just where a ground level explosion came from, so that's out too.

What makes anyone think Iran is going to attack anyone?
The last two countries to start a pre-emptive war with anyone in the world are the US and Israel, but you are going to take their side?

Lol.....

Originally posted by AwakeAndAllSeeing

What makes anyone think Iran is going to attack anyone?
The last two countries to start a pre-emptive war with anyone in the world are the US and Israel, but you are going to take their side?

Lol.....

Well said AwakeAndAllSeeing, very well said. the only danger to the middle east is not from within but from outside forces.

Even with a nuke they have no ability to strike the US with it.

No but they can turn every middle east oil refinery and oil field from Kuwai to france into an irradiated desert and Al Kahmani just the other day threatened to target all of USA's allies. Well now that talkes in UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, not to mention non oil producers like Isreal, Turkey, Greece, Italy, Germany.

Gosh where are you going to get your oil then ?

M4K4V3LI was correct. They don't have one yet, but they are discreetly funding uranium mining and a nuclear project in Myanmar with Russian assistance. Two of the four Pakistani nuclear scientists who helped teach Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, Sultan Bashiruddin Mahmood and Abdul Majid fled to Myanmar with assistance from the terrorist group Lashkar-e-Tibi.

www.atimes.com...

North Korea has an established air link with Myanmar which does not land at any civil airport but rather lands at a purpose built runway next to Myanmar's secret underground nuclear complex. Iran is funding this and North Korea's nuclear projects.
Mikeitso asked:

If someone were to provide the weapons grade for them, how long will it take them to create a nuke?

If we are just to talk about a time line for Iran to develop one on it's own then there are certain points to make.

With bomb grade uranium any high school student could theoretically put together a crude, but workable uranium bomb in a matter of months, so long as they can work out how to do it without getting radiation sickness. A so called "gun" type Uranium bomb is simple to make.

First Uranium bombs are very unstable to handle. By this I mean one cannot build in failsafe locks and they can be detonated accidentally. For this reason a serious player wanting to create nuclear warheads for missiles will have to develop Plutonium.

That requires using a nuclear reactor to breed Plutonium from Uranium. If the timeline is from August 2005 when Iran kicked out the IAEA, then say 6 months to enrich sufficient bomb grade uranium to fuel a reactor, so up to February 2006.

As I understand it they already have a reactor working at Busher. It would take 2 years to breed enough plutonium though irradiation of fuel rods. That takes you to up until February 2008. Then the spent fuel rods need 3 years of cooling in ponds. That gets you up to February 2011. Then one need say 6 months of chemical separation of the plutonium through reduction and precipitation. Maybe another 3 months for bomb fabrication. One is looking at 2012 for the first Iranian Plutonium bomb if they can't buy one elsewhere first.

A revolution in Pakistan could catapult Iran ahead by years, as could surreptitious help from North Korea or Myanmar.
By the way I do agree about Iran being a beautiful country with genuine cultured people. Trouble is it is also a country in the grip of psychotic tyrants the same way Germany was in the 1930s.

When Hitler came to power he only had 30% support from voters. Germany was a beautiful country with genuine cultured people too.

Like Germany in the grip of the Nazis, Iran is in the grip of tyrannical Ayatollahs.

What makes anyone think Iran is going to attack anyone?

Well AwakeAndAllSeeing it just may be because of the threats which they are making and the ICBMs they are building and their general overall military procurements.
AwakeAndAllSeeing you obviously haven’t seen or considered this:
Iran does not need nuclear power for electricity. It first of all does not have enough uranium to power the seven nuclear reactors it intends to build for more than 9 months each. Why would you spend billions of dollars per power station for a power station with only a 9 month life ?

If they ran one nuclear reactor on Iran's uranium reserves it would still only have enough uranium for 6 years.

Iran flares off enough gas each year to power half of Europe. They turned down offers of nuclear technolgy which do not require uranium enrichment. Please tell me why ?

Baphomet79, you make valid observations about nuclear threats, but the truth is Iran is a coercive state. No doubt USA is viewed the same way, but one should remember that Iran is in defiance of UN resolutions so it is not just opposing USA.

Originally posted by AwakeAndAllSeeing

It's a concept called mutually assured destruction. And you're reading a lot into figurative rhetoric.
So far, Iran doesn't have the capability to deliver a high yield nuclear device to Israel either. Iran hasn't even tested a low yield nuclear weapon.
The technology exists to figure out just where a ground level explosion came from, so that's out too.

What makes anyone think Iran is going to attack anyone?
The last two countries to start a pre-emptive war with anyone in the world are the US and Israel, but you are going to take their side?

Lol.....

LOL right back.

You are aware that Iran has been covertly getting plans for warheads that can only be MIRV's. The payload of those MIRV warhead plans are for nuclear material. Why are they seeking those if not for a nuclear payload? To assume that Iran's nuclear program is entirely peaceful is something even the IAEA is not willing to say. Why should Iran be given the benefit of a doubt. They must prove to the world they are clean, when it comes to their nuclear weapons ambitions.

Mutually assured destruction only works if one assumes both sides are rational. Also it only works if both sides have enough nuclear weapons to carry out the implied threat of MAD. I am not willing to characterise Iran's leadership as completely rational. Some may be pragmatic, some are plainly worrisome to say the least. What megatonnage of a nuclear weapon is acceptable for Iran to have in your opinion?

As for "figurative rhetoric", how many times must a man say he wants Israel to be gone, eliminated, wiped off the map, erased from the pages of history ect, till you believe him? Let's give him a bomb, he seems so rationale to me?

You are aware that Iran has been covertly getting plans for warheads that can only be MIRV's.

Not just the MIRV warheads, but also Iran is copying Soviet SS-4 ICBMs.

Under SALT II, various nuclear delivery systems were to be cut up and dismantled, then laid out in fileds for 2 years so that satellites could verify their destruction. Iran acquired the parts after the verification period expired and are now reverse engineering the SS-4 as the Shehab 5.

Iran is a beautiful country and their people are friendly, but their leadership are irrational to the point of psychotic.