Is it possible that Iran already has nukes?

I am curious to see if anyone thinks Iran already has the nukes. This country seems likes they are scared of nothing and I wonder if it is because they already have the weapons.

Is it possible that they have secret facilities that can accomplish this without watchful eyes noticing or is that something that cannot be hidden (I don't know)? Or is it possible that they can hide the necessary components within their exisiting facilities?

Iran seems deadset on gaining nuclear capability and if they really wanted nukes that bad is there not a way for them to hide it so that the entire world does not have to know that they are "3 to 5 years from having a nuclear weapon" (or whatever the actual time is)? Please straighten me out if you can. Thanks ATS.

I think they do, however this is just my opinion based partly on the bravado they show, it seems almost like they are too brave and confident because they know something we don't.

Thats where my other reason comes in.....they know something we don't.

How reliable have our intelligence agencies been in the past? Do you trust them to get it right about how long till Iran has a nuke?

I sure don't.

CX.

Originally posted by Moserious
I am curious to see if anyone thinks Iran already has the nukes. This country seems likes they are scared of nothing and I wonder if it is because they already have the weapons.

Not sure about this so don't qoute me on it but i believe i once heard a while back that Iran had one nuclear suitecas bomb along with a suecide bomber ready to be deployed to any major city around the world, Sleeper cells i think they call them.

not sure if it's true at all but makes sense for them to be so brazen if our security services know this. and would we be told if any such device was found in say NY or London. ??

WASHINGTON (AP) - Russia's military has lost track of 100 suitcase-sized nuclear bombs, the nation's former national security chief has told American lawmakers, who expressed alarm to the Clinton administration.

Maybe this has something to do with it but then again dautfull

The myth of "suitcase nukes

Former Russian official says 100 portable bombs missing

So what if they do, Israel have them, so hey let the fireworks start and let sit back and watch while eating pop corn.

I imagine that Pakistan and India will join armagedon when the time comes.

Naw, Iraq was the same way, back in 1991 as well as more recently under Saddam, bold and posturing till the bitter end, but all in all, it was all empty threat - Just like Iran. No nukes - yet.

Well if they have them they bought it from some other country for sure. If the question was : Do you think Iran has already produced nuclear bombs? then my answer would be NO. But they are "rich" enough to purchase them from countries that are hurting for money right now.

This country has had at least 20 years of hiding its nuclear program completely,successfuly.I would think they could have developed a couple of bombs with outside help(pakistan,n.korea??)in that time.And yes,if and when they do possess their blackmail meter will equal that of the belligerant n.koreans,i believe.

I would have to go along with M4K4V3LI.

It's doubtful that they have made them on their own. However, this week it was revealed that a U.K. business was shut down because it was caught attempting to have weapons grade uranium shipped to Iran.

So I have to ask myself if any shipments from elsewhere have made it thru without being caught. To me the probability that they have the material seems high. Making a nuke from the material? Maybe.

MI6 probes UK link to nuclear trade with Iran Sunday June 10, 2007

A British company has been closed down after being caught in an apparent attempt to sell black-market weapons-grade uranium to Iran and Sudan, The Observer can reveal.

Anti-terrorist officers and MI6 are now investigating a wider British-based plot allegedly to supply Iran with material for use in a nuclear weapons programme. One person has already been charged with attempting to proliferate 'weapons of mass destruction'.

During the 20-month investigation, which also involved MI5 and Customs and Excise, a group of Britons was tracked as they obtained weapons-grade uranium from the black market in Russia.

[edit on 6/11/07 by makeitso]

I'd go with them having a number of other peoples bombs, maybe primarally for reasearch and devolopment. Each bomb has a shelf life, if they have old ones they would have to replace the important part, or use it as a blue print for their own.

If/when they can make their own i'm pertty sure they'll let us all know, one way or the other.

I am amazed that none one has brought any facts forward one way or the other, just opinions.


Well according to the CBC, Iran is no where near their goal...at least 8 to 10 years away. The CBC says that fear mongering like this is as crappy disinformation as Suddam had WMD that led to the Iraq war.


since we (Canadians) did not go to Iraq, maybe the CBC has something to say...but I guess my opinion is as good as anyone elses.

Well according to the CBC, Iran is no where near their goal...at least 8 to 10 years away.

Isn't that estimate based on the assumption of them building the tech from scratch, on their own, without anyone else providing the material for them?

If someone were to provide the weapons grade for them, how long will it take them to create a nuke?

Got any studies handy based on that?

Originally posted by junglelord
Well according to the CBC, Iran is no where near their goal...at least 8 to 10 years away. The CBC says that fear mongering like this is as crappy disinformation as Suddam had WMD that led to the Iraq war.

The 'offical' line on time scale has changed quite drastically, in a downwards direction usually.

Will do a bit of digging, try to provide a time line.

I'd like to know why are you afraid from Iran. It's pure propaganda, what you're hearing day by day, nothing more. Iran is one of the rare countries, which not attacked any countries in the last... well, almost twenty years. Maybe more. The country is also holding more than 1 million refugee, almost more then any other countries. Iran is a really beautiful country, with a long past and beautiful culture, housing different cultures and religions, including Jewish and Christian near the Muslim religion. A country what a small, pitiful, warmongering and weak Zionist state wants to destroy, because they're not fitting into their plans. Before someone would come that their President said they want to wipe out Israel, that's not true. It was mistranslated directly to the western countries. He also never stated that he will order his army to attack. He just stated that my "favorite" country will disappear. Well. It will collapse due to it's leaders, that's true. What we're hearing day by day, it's just pure propaganda.

Iran wants to make nuclear energy for their own people. We Hungarians have a Nuclear power Plant too. And our country has the population of 10 million, while Iran has the population of 70 million.

Personal opinion. If Iran wants an Atomic bomb, well, go ahead. Israel has Nukes too. At least it will be an equal fight. But that's sure, Iran is not going to attack anyone. It's not their intention and it never was. They want to live in peace, that's all. Don't make false propaganda for the Zionists, please. Well. Except if you want to see the planet burning as they wants. The Zionists want to attack them and want to force the U.S. to send their soldiers into battle and to sure death.

I hope Ron Paul will be the next President of the United States, because he will surely leave Iran alone and from that moment, Israel will not popping and threating anyone without any serious ally and at least there will be a day, just one, when I don't need to read about their lies and empty threats.

[edit on 11-6-2007 by Dark Crystalline]

My personal feelings set aside. The purpose of having a nuclear weapons is the THREAT of it's use and the destructive power of it. Actually using one is crossing that "brink" that is nearly impossible for any state to limp back from.

Thus any rational (once again personal feelings on the subject set aside) state actor such as Iran would certainly use the threat of a nuclear strike as a coercive measure, if indeed they already possessed the weapon. Since we do not hear that already, I am under the personal assumption that they do not.

But then again, calling The Guardian Council (the real power in Iran) rational is a long shot at best.

[edit on 11-6-2007 by Baphomet79]

There have been some really good replies here. Ijust can't wrap my head around the fact that these timelines that are quoted in the news for Iran having a nuclear weapon can be trusted. I mean if a country really wanted something such as this do you really think that they would "put everything on the table" so that an accurate timeline could be published for all to know? This just does not seem feasable to me at all.

Originally posted by Dark Crystalline

Don't make false propaganda for the Zionists, please

I'm not making false propaganda or any propaganda, I'm just asking questions.

Moserious. I know that you've just asked a question. That sentence isn't referred to you. It's referred to everyone who is believing or want us to believe that Iran is a threat. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Off topic: Anyway you have a really pretty avatar. May I ask who is she?

[edit on 11-6-2007 by Dark Crystalline]

Some dates to be going on with, I want to compile the published lengths of time untill Iran can produce a bomb - off the top of my head I can remember it dropping from 20-25 years to the current 6-8.

August 2002: Iranian exiles say that Tehran has built a vast uranium enrichment plant at Natanz and a heavy water plant at Arak without informing the United Nations.

September 2002: Construction work begins on Iran's first nuclear reactor at the Bushehr power plant.

December 2002: The existence of sites at Natanz and Arak is confirmed by satellite photographs shown on US television. The US accuses Tehran of "across-the-board pursuit of weapons of mass destruction". Iran agrees to inspections by the International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA).

February 2003: Iranian President Mohammed Khatami reveals that Iran has unearthed uranium deposits and announces plans to develop a nuclear fuel cycle. IAEA chief Mohammed ElBaradei travels to Iran with a team of inspectors to begin probing Tehran's nuclear plans.

June 2003: Mr ElBaradei accuses Iran of not revealing the extent of its nuclear work, and urges leaders to sign up for more intrusive inspections.

August 2003: Traces of highly enriched weapons-grade uranium found at Natanz.

September 2003: More enriched uranium discovered, prompting urgent calls for Iran to sign a voluntary protocol formalising a tougher inspection regime.

October 2003: After meeting French, German and UK foreign ministers, Tehran agrees to stop producing enriched uranium and formally decides to sign the Additional Protocol. No evidence is produced to confirm the end of enrichment.

November 2003: Mr ElBaradei says there is "no evidence" that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons. The US disagrees.

December 2003: Iran signs the protocol at the IAEA headquarters in Vienna.

February 2004: Abdul Qadeer Khan, the godfather of Pakistan's nuclear bomb, is reported to have sold Iran nuclear weapons technology.

February 2004: IAEA report says Iran experimented with polonium-210, which can be used to trigger the chain reaction in a nuclear bomb. Iran did not explain the experiments. Iran again agrees to suspend enrichment, but again does not.

March 2004: Iran urged to reveal its entire nuclear programme to the IAEA by 1 June 2004.

June 2004: Tehran is criticised by the IAEA for trying to import magnets for centrifuges and for not offering "full, timely and pro-active" co-operation with inspectors.

September 2004: IAEA orders Iran to stop preparations for a large-scale uranium enrichment. US Secretary of State Colin Powell labels Iran a growing danger and calls for the UN Security Council to impose sanctions. Iran says it has resumed large-scale conversion of uranium ore into gas.

November 2004: Iran agrees to halt all enrichment activities during talks with the three European Union states, but pledges to resume in the future.

January 2005: IAEA inspectors allowed into the secretive Parchin plant near Tehran.

April 2005: Iran announces plans to resume uranium conversion at Isfahan.

May 2005: EU states warn that any resumption of conversion would end negotiations linked to trade and economic issues. Iran agrees to wait for detailed proposals from the Europeans at the end of July.

August 2005: Hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is installed as Iranian president, as Tehran pledges an "irreversible" resumption of enrichment.
Iran rejects the latest European proposals for resolving the nuclear crisis.
Iran appoints a hardline politician, Ali Larijani, to lead the country's nuclear talks with the European Union.
Iran resumes sensitive fuel cycle work at its uranium conversion facility near the city of Isfahan.
An independent investigation finds no evidence that Iran was working on a secret nuclear weapons programme. It concludes that traces of bomb-grade uranium in Iran's nuclear facilities came from contaminated Pakistani equipment, not Iranian activities. The US dismisses the report.

September 2005: A study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies concludes that Iran is still several years away from acquiring a nuclear weapons capability.
Speaking before the UN General Assembly, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says his country has an "inalienable right" to produce nuclear fuel.
The IAEA passes a resolution setting Iran up for referral to the UN Security Council at a later date, on the grounds of Tehran's non-compliance with international nuclear safeguards.

I don't think Iran has a nuke yet but I also think that it has advanced much further in enrichment than is currently thought.

Iran has steadfastly refused IAEA requests for spot inspections at any place other than declared facilities. That leads me to believe that they have other hidden facilities involved in the nuclear weapons process. It's classic misdirection, show some plants and keep the others hidden. Don't tell me that Iran is not capable of that. The only problem is that we will find out too late.

Trust but verify. Until the Iranians open up to unfettered inspections, there is the possibility for them to hide things.

I don't think they have them, or are stupid enough to build one.

As soon as they build one, they get bombed.
Even with a nuke they have no ability to strike the US with it.

Originally posted by AwakeAndAllSeeing
I don't think they have them, or are stupid enough to build one.

As soon as they build one, they get bombed.
Even with a nuke they have no ability to strike the US with it.

What makes you think the U.S. is Iran's primary target? It's pretty plain who they intentd to wipe off the map.