Originally posted by GreatTech
gottago, what is the relative "sub-authority power" of the USA and Russia? That is, power exercised by the military without Bush or Putin factoring
in any decision made.
GT
I'm not sure exactly what you mean here, but obviously we're way ahead in any sort of calculus of raw military power. We spend more than basically
the whole world combined on "defense." And that is just counting the funding we see, nothing of the black budget, which is enormous.
But raw power will only get you so far--witness Iraq. We've been made a laughingstock; essentially our military is impotent against a shadow
enemy--in many ways this conflict will define future ones, and we've built an amazing but obsolete war machine.
But there are other factors to consider, so-called "soft power" for one, which is the ability to influence other actors simply by veiled threat or
encouragement. Essentially, it's the effectiveness of diplomacy. BushCo has trashed that--we don't 'do' diplomacy anymore, it's for sissies--and
we're deep in the red there.
This is perhaps one area where in a way you are correct--as we grow more bullying and threatening, allies will naturally peel away to "neutral"
status simply to avoid us, and those already sitting on the fence may become antagonists and league against us. Natural geopolitics since time
immemorial.
You also have to look at economic power, and here we are also in deep trouble, and it is the reason I believe for our current naked aggression and for
the rise of the Neocons, and as an ancillary, 9/11--the enabling act.
Our economy is a debt-ridden mess, akin to Argentina's before its debt crisis--we just don't have a meltdown because the countries we are in debt
to--most importantly China, which feeds our consumer goods, and the ME oil producers, who are paid in dollars--keep us afloat, because we're the 600
lb gorilla and we'd take them down with us.
And we are taking no steps to reduce our debt--instead, both privately and publicly, we spend like drunken sailors. and the debt will soon start to
compound, to amass exponentially--to take off and climb the steep slope of a Laffer curve.
We also don't have any oil. We pay for our oil in dollars--this keeps the ME in line--but now there is a consortium of disaffected countries--Iran,
Venezuala, even Brazil--who want to trade for oil in Euros or a basket of currencies. This is the real reason why those countries are being reported
in the MSM as "dangerous" (all in line with what happens to bullies, above).
So: useless, overpriced war tech + no oil + huge debt = desperation.
On the other hand, Russia's been getting its act together. It is the world's largest energy producer, its oil and gas reserves are immense. And the
-stans around it, most under their influence, are also energy rich. And their tech is very good; some of their latest weaponry is quite impressive.
And Putin's been placing the most dangerous stuff with countries like Iran and Syria that are in the US's sights.
So Russia is surprisingly well-placed to make a comeback, while we are actually in a very dangerous position. We can't go on much longer with rotten
foundations, and that's also why you see CEOs making obscene money grabs and engineering their own golden parachutes, and why inheritance taxes have
vanished, etc. The rich are building their financial ark.
Apres Bush, le deluge.
[typos]
[edit on 13-5-2007 by gottago]