Arctic Sea-Ice Melting Faster Than Predicted

Arctic sea ice is melting at a significantly faster rate than projected by even the most advanced computer models, a new study concludes.

"While the ice is disappearing faster than the computer models indicate, both observations and the models point in the same direction: The Arctic is losing ice at an increasingly rapid pace and the impact of greenhouse gases is growing," said study team member Marika Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Holland and her colleagues compared model simulation of past climate with observations by satellites and found that the models simulated a loss in September ice cover of 2.5 percent per decade from 1953 to 2006. (September marks the yearly minimum in Arctic ice cover.)
While the highest rate of decline in any of the models was 5.4 percent per decade, satellite measurements, which are considered more reliable, showed that September ice actually declined at a rate of about 7.8 percent per decade during the same period.

"This suggests that current model projections may in fact provide a conservative estimate of future Arctic change, and that the summer Arctic sea ice may disappear considerably earlier than IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] projections," said study team member Julienne Stroeve of the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

The shrinking ice may actually be about 30 years ahead of model predictions, meaning the Arctic could be ice free in the summer earlier than the IPCC’s predicted time-frame of 2050-2100.


SOURCE:
LiveScience.com

This is not good, if the arctic sea-ice melts enough, it will mean rising
sea levels, and coastal areas, in which a significant amount of the
human population lives, becoming inundated and not fit for living.

If this study is right, than that means that the date of 2050-2100 for
the the arctic being ice free in the summer as said in the IPCC report,
would actually be between 2020-2070.


Comments, Opinions?

Important subject, concerns me greatly, here is a disturbing link reguarding several areas that are already affected. globalwarmingwatch.blogspot.com...

Actually the glaciers have been melting for something like 15000 years.

I think we are safe

Originally posted by MXIII


Actually the glaciers have been melting for something like 15000 years.

I think we are safe

We're not talking about glaciers, we're talking about the arctic ice, that is
supposed to be there all the time.

[edit on 4/30/2007 by iori_komei]