Israel's chance of survival

As the situation in the ME seems to be spiraling out of control if the US/Israel attack Iran will Hezbollah, Syria and Iran attack Israel and if they do what are Israel's chances of survival.

Will the Arab/Muslim nations use the attack on Iran as a means of taking out Israel for good.

To what degree will Russia/China get involved in such a conflict.

Will the US reinstate the draft as its forces are already stretched.

It really depends in my opinion, Syria plays an important role.

Should Israel launch an attack on Syria and Syria decides to retaliate with full force, Israel would be having a tough job defending its state. Syria does not have a modern army, but it has a powerful number of artillery units, (old-fashioned) tanks and a relatively huge number of soldiers.

If Israel would be fighting a war against Syria only, it would probably defeat the Syrian army, but losses would high. Not to speak of the fact that guerrilla tactics are extremely hard to counter.

However, likely we haven't seen what weapons Hezbollah has, it could be very well the case that is possesses modern Iranian (Chinese/Russian) missiles, which they will only use if things are getting really nasty.

Civilian casualties in Israel would be high as Syria would bomb them from the North East while Hezbollah launches missiles from the North. Additionally, Iran could launch its heavy arsenal of missiles.

Hezbollah announced that it will attack Israel if Israel would attack Iran, the position of Syria is not clear so far. Palestinian terrorist organizations have announced they will join such a retaliation.

Syria, rank 16

Active troops:
296,000
Reserve troops:
132,500
Paramilitary
108,000
Total
536,500
15.89

Israel, rank 33
Active troops:
168,000
Reserve troops:
408,000
Paramilitary
8,050
Total
584,050
23.90

Source

Syria has a significant quantity of armor numbering some 4,700 tanks, though 1,200 are placed in static defensive positions and another 2,000 are T-55s and T-62s. Syria does however have some 1,700 T-72/72Ms.

Virtually all of Syria armored reconnaissance vehicles (600 BRDM-2s and 125 BRDM-2 RKHs) are out-dated as is their 2,000 BMP-1s, though the 200-350 BMP-2s and BMP-3s are more modern.

Syria's artillery capability is significant, as it is armed with 122mm Type 2S1s and 152mm 2S3s. Its towed artillery is comprised mostly of 122mm, 130mm and 152mm weapons. Its multiple rocket launcher inventory consists of Type 63 107mm and BM-21 122mms. According to Anthony Cordesman Syria relies principally on static massed fires and is unable to rapidly shift fires. Accuracy beyond line of site is also lacking as their ability to maneuver and exploit counterbattery radars and targeting systems.

Syria's reserve forces include one armored division comprised of four armored brigades, two armored regiments, 31 infantry regiments and three artillery regiments.
Source

No matter how modern your army is, no army can stop full scale missile and artillery barrage attacks which would heavily harm Israeli settlements.

Mar. 1, 2007 23:43

Syria has spent the past few months constructing and moving infrastructure to its southern border that could be used to launch a war against Israel, senior defense officials have told The Jerusalem Post.

According to the officials, the Syrian military - while restricted in the number of troops it is allowed to deploy along the border - has moved military infrastructure, including fuel depots, closer to the frontier. The Syrians have also built structures in the area that could serve as weapons stores and military bases.

"There is no doubt that something out of the ordinary is taking place on the Syrian side of the border," a high-ranking official said.

Source

Meanwhile, Israel expressed concern Friday about a potential Russian sale of advanced anti-tank weapon systems to Damascus amid persistent fears in the Jewish state about a future conflict with its enemy.

The weapons in question, Russia’s most advanced anti-tank rockets, are capable of ripping through the most modern armour and penetrating even bunkers, the country’s top-selling Yediot Aharonot newspaper warned.

Referred to by NATO members as AT-15, they have an effective range of six kilometres (3.75 miles) longer than the firing range of the most advanced tanks, and would pose a serious problem to Israeli tanks in any potential conflict.

Source

Now, with the United States trapped in a thorny standoff with Iran over the future of Iraq, Russia has a chance to edge itself back into the sandbox. Moscow once again is trying to make friends in the region, with a particular focus on the two countries with the greatest ability to aggravate Washington and undermine U.S. policies: Iran and Syria.

While there have been some rumors about shipments of modern Russian air defense equipment to Syria, many reports are unconfirmed and are, at best, being debated in defense establishment circles. Of major concern is the S-300 long-range air defense system, considered to be among the most capable air defense asset in the world. The latest version of this system, the S-300PMU2, is unlikely to be in Syrian hands -- but the mere discussion of such a sale would be enough to put Israeli and U.S. policymakers on edge.

Source

But again, it depends on whether Syria would retaliate with full force, which I doubt.

It should be fairly obvious that Israel would trounce an alliance that attacked it, as its down, what, at least twice before? And has only gotten stronger since then, whereas the arabs have only gotten weaker?

If Hezbollah, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran attack Israel, then Israel will just end up with bigger borders than now.

And Iran has no ability to attack israel, short of lobbing some missiles into it. It has no power projection ability, the best iran can do is send money and equipment. Previously they could do that by sending shipments through the arabian sea or partly though the Persian Gulf, but now that avenue is closed, what with the US naval buildup. They probably can't send large shipments through Iraq now either, what with US troop pressence, and widespread sectarian violence.
Even if they try to run through the north of iraq and into Syria, they'd get stiff resistance from the Kurdish Peshmerga, who are no fans of the Iranians.

So Iran is basically out of the picture, and certainly won't be, for example, sending battalions of tanks to the scene.

Israel can pretty clearly wipe the floor with Syria, which is currently lead by a guy that went to school to be a dentist (iow, he's not the dictator his father was). If any such attack happened, Israel would probably extend its borders into Lebanon and parts of syria, and the syrian government would probably collapse.

the position of Syria is not clear so far

But syria has a common defense pact with Iran, they'd be obligated to respond under it no?

[edit on 3-3-2007 by Nygdan]

This whole idea of Israel "going it alone" against Iran is nonsense. Bush has pledged to defend Israel, whether Israel initiates aggression or not, and the Israeli leadership know this. In fact, Israel count on it every time, hence the constant ordnance resupply flights from the US as they dropped it all on Lebanese civilian targets.
Same goes for Syria too I guess. If Israel initiates a move against Syria the US will sit back and resupply arms as usual, but may step in directly if things don't go Israels way.

The Israeli leadership is becoming more and more embroiled in domestic corruption cases and needs something soon to take the focus off their own internal woes.

Although they don't say so publically it is specuated that Isreal has between 100-400 nukes. If Isreals neighbors ever succeed in taking big chunks of Isreal or manage to inflict massive casualities on the population of Isreal I think that the mid east will end up glowing.

Lately, I've been getting more and more discouraged by the mideast. I do not see a solution unless people on all sides stop the violence. I don't think that will happen.

If I lived in Isreal, I'd sell everything and move to a different continent before the situation ends up in a real nightmare. That is what I think is going to happen.

Given the demographics of the region, the long term probability that the Israeli colony (because that's exactly what it is) will survive is nil, unless they come to some kind of understanding with their neighbors. Peaceful relations with Egypt and Jordan show it can be done, but if the rightwing dream of Eretz Yisrael Hashlemah (greater Israel) is not abandoned, peace will be impossible.

Israel has been lucky so far, but they can't expect to have a technological edge indefinitely, the rest of the world is not standing still. Inevitably Iran or some other regional power will develop it's own nuclear arsenal, nullifying the Israeli advantage.

Originally posted by Wildbob77
Although they don't say so publically it is specuated that Isreal has between 100-400 nukes. If Isreals neighbors ever succeed in taking big chunks of Isreal or manage to inflict massive casualities on the population of Isreal I think that the mid east will end up glowing.


If I lived in Isreal, I'd sell everything and move to a different continent before the situation ends up in a real nightmare. That is what I think is going to happen.

If Israel ever used nuclear weapons in the Middle East it would more then likely make any follower of Judaism a potential target for terrorism in many countries. That would probably be the most foolish thing they would/could ever do. What they have done in the recent past would probably be minor compared to what they would do if massive amounts of people were killed if Israel used WMD's. There are so many right-wingers outside of Israel that openly call for use of WMD's in the event that israel was invaded. (The Samson option)

As far as living in Israel, they claim its the safest place in the world for Jewish people to live but going by how they always describe it as being living in constant fear of bombers and whatnot it doesn't seem to be the safest place in my opinion. I would definitly agree with you..I'd move.

Originally posted by xmotex
Israel has been lucky so far, but they can't expect to have a technological edge indefinitely,

Sure they can. Iraq isn't going to be producing any great technological advances for the next few generations, and Iran certainly isn't. Neither is Syria, or Jordan, or any of their neighbhors. Israel is a liberal modern democracy, that's going to give them a tremendous edge wrt science, economy, internal stability, etc.

Inevitably Iran or some other regional power will develop it's own nuclear arsenal, nullifying the Israeli advantage.

Ignoring that Isreal can just bomb, or nuke, anyone else's nuke plants, there's also allways the possibility that both sides will opt to refrain from thermonuclear warfare, for their own safety. And if not, Isreal has the advantage when it comes to nukes and the ability to deliver them and the ability to defend from them.

Given the demographics of the region, the long term probability that the Israeli colony (because that's exactly what it is) will survive is nil,

Hardly. What does Israel care if the population of the occupied territories are twice as large as that of Israel proper? Britain ruled a quarter of the world, with a tiny population and primitive technology. Israel can certainly defend itself from future arab generations. And as far as internally, the arabs that are already in Israel AREN'T generally engaged in war against it. Thats another advantage of being a liberal modern democracy, the people inside of it realize that they are better off, and certainly aren't going to tear it apart from within to hand it over to shia militias or sunni tyrants, or Iran or the alawis' in syria.

ThePieMan
If Israel ever used nuclear weapons in the Middle East it would more then likely make any follower of Judaism a potential target for terrorism in many countries.

Considering that radical muslims are already attacking jews the world over, this is true but its not a qualitative difference. Nukes are generally only going to be used in matters of national surival. If there's a strategic objective that they need nukes to accomplish, it'd outweigh the 'con' of having some more attacks on other jews overseas.

That would probably be the most foolish thing they would/could ever do

I don't see it that way. Far better for the yehudis to nuke iran, if thats what it takes, than to let iran have nukes. Its pretty clear that Iranian nukes would, one way or another, be used against the yehudis. Seems sensible enough to trade the annihilation of Tel Aviv for attacks on jewish resorts overseas.

As far as living in Israel, they claim its the safest place in the world for Jewish people to live but going by how they always describe it as being living in constant fear of bombers and whatnot it doesn't seem to be the safest place in my opinion

Consider that the europeans tried to wipe out the jews only, what, a little more than 60 years ago? Israel lives under a shadow of danger from terror attacks, but thats better than pogroms.

Now would be a crazy time to leave israel, especially if the situation gets worse and there is open conflict with iran. There is already a rise in antisemitism internationally, after such a war, there'd be lots of people looking to 'do something about the jews'. Far better to be in Israel at that time. They might be able to send an IDF attachment to, say, Indonesia or Brazil or whathaveyou, but doubtful if it could get there in time.

Hi Nygdan, Israel can defend itself because it is being suported, financed and protected by America. American service men and women are dying to protect Israel not to protect the US.

Irrespective of Israel having nukes this will not protect it, using nukes anywhere in the ME would threaten the lives of Israel's not protect them.

Israels population is 6.2 million, given that 6 million Jews died during ww2 this small population is not enough to fight a sustained war of attrition. Ones capacity to endure high casulties is an important factor when fighting wars. Israel simply does not have the resources to sustain that kind of conflict.

Israel's enemies are becoming better equiped by the likes of Russia/China who are fighting wars of proxy against the US. How Many Americans would be willing to sign up and die for Israel, not many would would they.
And more to the point are the People of America willing to engage in a possible 3rd world war for the sake of Israel.

But not only does Israel have nukes it also has the might of every arms U.S factory, supplier, storage facility; and possibly even the U.S military itself behind it.
If Israel attacks Iran they will kick it’s ass, but at the same time Iran can make it very expensive by disrupting the supply of oil not just in its borders but in other countries.
Israel might loose a few planes due to the latest missiles the Russians keep selling Iran, and if they get themselves on the ground they will be practically massacred no matter what the ratio of enemy and ally deaths.
However Iran can do two things: Keep on building (deeper underground), and step up its efforts to covertly disrupt western interests like oil supply in other countries. This isn’t exactly atom bomb science, and only a little oil need to be taken out of production to increase inflation across the whole of the global oil supply. Given the jittery current state of the global economy I hate to think what 100 dollar barrels of oil could do, we got quite close about 8 months ago when things were going well; god help us if it happens now.
And defence sector of the economy is already contributing due to the fighting in Iraq; therefore we will shot ourselves in the foot if we do anything other than to let Israel do what it wants.

Also don’t think Iran will be wiped of the map; Iran has biological weapons, and so though the Middle East may glow after Israeli nukes, Israel will also be a very diseased place.
Hence Israel cannot and will not go as far to “solve the Iranian problem forever”. Frankly if Iran can build a bomb even after Israel strike(s) out at them, then we are going to have to live with it because the consequences of not living with it are about as bad as the worst possible consequences of living with it. Frankly it’s game over, Dubya got distracted with Iraq, and Iran made a single lethal move that a made a mockery of all our pieces on the Chess board of the Middle East.

Originally posted by magicmushroom
Hi Nygdan, Israel can defend itself because it is being suported, financed and protected by America.

Well good for israel then.

American service men and women are dying to protect Israel not to protect the US.

The US has never fought a war to defend Israel.

Irrespective of Israel having nukes this will not protect it, using nukes anywhere in the ME would threaten the lives of Israel's not protect them.

If they use nukes to destroy a government that is threatening to build nukes and nuke isreal......then they've clearly protected themselves.

Israels population is 6.2 million, given that 6 million Jews died during ww2 this small population is not enough to fight a sustained war of attrition.

ANd they won't have to. The arabs are the ones using the tactics of Phyrrus, and losing, heck at least Phyrrus won at a too high cost, the arabs are loosing at a too high cost.

Ones capacity to endure high casulties is an important factor when fighting wars. Israel simply does not have the resources to sustain that kind of conflict.

And yet, they've won every war that they've been in. Thats because they don't need to fight wars of attrition.

How Many Americans would be willing to sign up and die for Israel, not many would would they.

To fight alongside another people who are being bombed by terrorists, and to fight against, in your reasoning, the russians and chinese who are already secretly fighting us? You can be a lot would. THe US and Israel have common interests and common enemies. If worldwide war breaks out, the Israel will align with the US, and the US certainly isn't going to reject them.

And more to the point are the People of America willing to engage in a possible 3rd world war for the sake of Israel.

Since you're saying that the US is already being attacked by he Russians and Chinese, yeah, if the public actually beleived that, then why wouldn't we partner with Israel to attack a common enemy?
Why shouldn't the US work with Israel, whats the alternative, working with a Hamas ruled Palestine? Er, no thanks, we'll take the Yehudis.

Liberal1984
If Israel attacks Iran they will kick it’s ass, but at the same time Iran can make it very expensive by disrupting the supply of oil not just in its borders but in other countries.

And the Saudis and other Sunni monarchies can ramp up production to stabilize the price of oil. And if the Iranian government is destroyed by the Israelis or Americans, then the iranian government won't be able to shut down oil production.

Israel might loose a few planes due to the latest missiles the Russians keep selling Iran, and if they get themselves on the ground they will be practically massacred no matter what the ratio of enemy and ally deaths.

The Israelis will be masacred? The Iranians do not have the ability to defeat the Israeli Regular Army. The best they will be able to do is sit in their tanks while they're burning, and then have an insurgency afterwards, which is hardly a massacre. If after a few years the Yehudis get tired of Patroling the streets of Tehran and trying to prevent the different sects from exterminating each other, they'll pack up and leave, like the americans.
Hardly seems like a sensible plan for the Iranians.

But the point is moot, Isreal isn't going to be sending tank squadrons through iraq and into Iran, any more than Iran is going to be sending their tanks across the desert into Tel Aviv. The Israelis have the longest reach, with their missiles and air force and navy. The Iranians don't have much of a reach, short of terror organizations, which won't be able to 'storm' the security wall.

On biological weapons:

I haven't seen where the Iranians have actual biological weapons, but who do you think has a better bio-weapon research program, the USA and Israel, or Iran and what it can buy from Russia? Who do you think has viral disease agents with arabic and persian genetic markers, the yehudis or the ruskies?

Nygdan, I think you missed the entire point...

No offense, but Israel stands no chance in hell against the Muslim countries as they are being supplied by China and Russia (They're ALLIES). This would be the start of WORLD WAR III as America backs Israel and the entire Eastern Hemisphere joins behind Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and Russia/China. What would be one reason we are in Afghanistan and Iraq other than the oil supply and "terrorist" bull#?

We are in those places to buffer the Zionist state of Israel so they don't have to fight every Muslim country at once. Do you think the Saudi's and Egyptians will sit around and watch America expand farther into the Middle East? What's to stop the whole continent of Africa uniting against the US as well as the entire Asian continent behind China?

America is more or less a puppet state of Israel due to the religious zeal of our brainless and heartless politicians. Israel was formed in 1948 for a few political prisoners escaping Nazi Germany, along with GERMANS hiding due to their disgusting acts under the aforementioned regime.

We are being lied to from the highest forms of government due to their thirst for blood. When will we realize that war does not hold any solution except for causing more wars?

Wake up please.

bs

[edit on 4-3-2007 by biggie smalls]

Even though it's unlikely that the Israeli nation would be so hard pushed and threatened by Iran, if the Israeli's are under threat of being invaded by anyone then they would use their nukes on Iran/Syria. Making the middle east 'glow' is of less concern when their nation is about to be destroyed.

Originally posted by biggie smalls
Nygdan, I think you missed the entire point...

No offense, but Israel stands no chance in hell against the Muslim countries as they are being supplied by China and Russia (They're ALLIES).

And who was supplying the arabs in the OTHER wars against Israel, that they lost? Russia.

This would be the start of WORLD WAR III as America backs Israel and the entire Eastern Hemisphere joins behind Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and Russia/China.

Russia and China aren't going to engage in open warfare with the US over Iran. THe most they are going to do is what they did wrt Iraq, a whole lotta nothing. Sell them some small arms, some equipment perhaps to repair their old soviet tanks, and maybe block a UN resolution authorizing force.

We are in those places to buffer the Zionist state of Israel

Al Qaida was operating out of Afghanistan. You don't find it 'interesting' at least that the timing of the invasion of Afghanistan was AFTER 911, not before it? What changed along with that in terms of Israeli security? Nothing. Clearly the overriding concern with the Afghan War was Al-qaida. Its equally clearly that Israel didn't now need some sort of buffer wrt Iraq, they had ALREADY bombed Iraq nuke factories, and Iraq was already under sanctions and had had its military cut to peices. We invaded Iraq and Afghanistan in reponse to 911, not in response to Israeli security needs.

so they don't have to fight every Muslim country at once.

They've already defeated, and a few occasions, alliances of Arab states, the big powers at the time. And, agian, Iran does not have the ability to project its power overland into Israel. The most it can do is lob missiles and send smal arms shipments to palestinian groups. Thats with or without Hussein in power in Iraq. ANd if anything, removing Hussein destroyed having Iraq as the counter-balance to Iran. Israel is less safe wrt that, in a sense, now Iran is able to assume the lead position in the shia world, rather than having it split betwee islamists, baathists, and tyrants.

Do you think the Saudi's and Egyptians will sit around and watch America expand farther into the Middle East?

What in the world do you think Egypt can do to Israel? Egypt was barely able to get the Sinai back in negotians. ANd the Saudis have money, thats about it, and they need the US to sell their oil to to keep that money, so no, the Saudis aren't going to openly oppose us in a wider middle eastern war.

What's to stop the whole continent of Africa uniting against the US

Africa is the weakest continent on the planet. Its military contributions here are irrelevant.

as well as the entire Asian continent behind China?

You think India is going to Ally with China? Or S. Korea and Japan? Or nepal? China, also, has no power projection ability. They can send some arms to fighters in some regions. Maybe they could send some arms to the palestinians. But they're not going to be marching armies across the himalayas, through iran, and into the Levant. They're not going to be sending Aircraft Carrier groups into the eastern med or Persian Gulf. They're not even going to be able to make a major sale of jets and tanks to, say, Iran or Jordan or what have you, because those sales would be blocked. The arabs, as an alliance of states, couldn't defeat israel when it was unestablished and when they were still relatively strong and cohesive. Now Isreal is even stronger than it was in those wars, and the arabs haven't even managed to stand still, but have gotten weaker. Throwing Iran into the mix only adds rhetoric and an uptick in arms shipments (since they're already sending arms, and getting trounced).

Nygdan,

First off, you need to stop saying Arabs as a general term to describe anything other than a Jew in the Middle East. There are Syrians, Jordanians, Persians, etc etc etc. It sounds slightly prejudice in my eyes. This is not the first time I've heard this from you either. You seem to have a disposition to degrade Arabs every chance you get, this is another you've been given and you're not hiding your methods.

If they use nukes to destroy a government that is threatening to build nukes and nuke isreal......then they've clearly protected themselves.

Nonsense. Using a nuclear device would be the ultimate form of aggression from an already hyper-aggressive stated that has no contention in collectively punishing an entire country over the kidnapping of two of it's soldiers. Israel has proven time and time again that' it's sensitivities can manifest into illegal occupations, deeply troubling and officially recognized human rights violations, exacting the same turmoil that Jewish persons suffered during the holocaust, and an overall pride in it's ability to whip whatever hand refuses to be fed by it's negligence.

There is no posit evidence that Iran is building a nuke or that it will carry out intentions to nuke Israel. Iran does not have a history of unwarranted aggression towards it's neighbors unlike the state of Israel and it certainly is more than it's sovereign right defend itself from actualized agressive states within the Middle East.

ANd they won't have to. The arabs are the ones using the tactics of Phyrrus, and losing, heck at least Phyrrus won at a too high cost, the arabs are loosing at a too high cost.

No they are not loosing. Iraq is a perfect reminder of how easily we can be defeated if the tactics of the Arabs are fully concentrated on it's occupiers. Though as of now it's more warfare between domestic factions were it to turn around, unify and serve to engage American Forces, we could potentially have a Vietnam style guerrilla warfare which the U.S has proven itself to be ineffective against. The U.S will find themselves ostracized.

We have no long term strategy in terms of a war against Iran and Syria, and the supposed Proxy arm of Iran, Hezballah, and how you expect Israels meager population whose technological advancements mean very little when fighting a war against 2 heavily armed states back by the Chinese and Russia whom hold vital interests within to fight against a combined force capable of defending it's borders and deploying a substantial amount of soldiers towards Israel is beyond me. The usage of Nuclear devices would have the obvious ramifications which would further polarize the Jewish population.

To fight alongside another people who are being bombed by terrorists, and to fight against, in your reasoning, the russians and chinese who are already secretly fighting us?

Terrorists? Who are the terrorists? These fictional characters and organizations that prop up for convenience? Have you not realized that 9/11 allowed the United States and Israel to simply label anyone against their own interests in the Middle East as terrorists and the only rational way to silence terrorism is through a hyper use of violence and bombings? Iran fully supported the U.S fight against Al-Queda in Afghanistan, or did you forget that? You want us to side with two government who refuse to talk to so called rouge states and would rather wait for the opportune casus belli.

Russia and China aren't going to engage in open warfare with the US over Iran.

You have no absolute reason to say this will stand true in the future. China and Russia have much reason to defend their vital interests with the Middle East as the U.S has to oversize its' hegemony within it. Regardless, they need not engage in open warfare when they can instead supply Iran with defensive and offensive military applications. Mind you, I hardly doubt there is ignorance within this move by Russia and China to provide Iran with military applications. Do you truly believe they would precious applications in a country that can easily be defeated?

Luxifero

Originally posted by Luxifero
Nygdan,

First off, you need to stop saying Arabs as a general term to describe anything other than a Jew in the Middle East.

I am well aware of the diversity of ethnicity in the middle east. When I say that the arabs attacked Israel, thats what I mean, the Arab League attacked Israel:
en.wikipedia.org...

It sounds slightly prejudice in my eyes.

No offense, but too bad. "Arab" is not a slur, its the well respected name of an entire people.

This is not the first time I've heard this from you either. You seem to have a disposition to degrade Arabs every chance you get, t

By calling Arabs arabs I am degarding them?

Um, no. The Arabs decided to call it the Arab League, and the Arabs were the ones that previously were at war with Isreal. They're also the ones that will bear the brunt of any fighting with Isreal in the future, not the Persians, who have no way to even get over to Israel.

If they use nukes to destroy a government that is threatening to build nukes and nuke isreal......then they've clearly protected themselves.

Nonsense. Using a nuclear device would be the ultimate form of aggression

Yes, and so what? Its agressive defense.

There is no posit evidence that Iran is building a nuke or that it will carry out intentions to nuke Israel.

I agree, there is a great amount of room for debate in the matter. BUt whats that matter? We're talking about a hypothetical.

Iran does not have a history of unwarranted aggression towards it's neighbors

Except for the whole funding militias thing.

unlike the state of Israel

Israel was attacked, it responded, and it won. The result of that is occupation. Had the yehudis lost, they'd be the ones occupied by the arabs.

and it certainly is more than it's sovereign right defend itself from actualized agressive states within the Middle East.

And its equally the right of Israel to decide to defend itself.

No they are not loosing. Iraq is a perfect reminder of how easily we can be defeated if the tactics of the Arabs are fully concentrated on it's occupiers.

Who's death toll is greater, the iraqi death toll, anywhere from 300k-600k, or the American death toll, at 3k? When the US leaves, it will be a Victory for the iraqis, but it will be Phyrric Victory, clearly, with even more death to follow. And we're supposed to beleive that that can stop the yehudis from destroying the syrian, or iranian, or saudi governments??? Of course it can't. The most they can hope for is to do what the palestinians are doing, and maybe the yehudis will get sick of it and leave.

Though as of now it's more warfare between domestic factions were it to turn around, unify and serve to engage American Forces,

Clearly thats a pipe dream. I mean, sure, IF the arabs could get their act together, develop new weapons, etc, then they could put up a defense against the yehudis.
But they're clearly not going to do that.

We have no long term strategy in terms of a war against Iran and Syria,

Says who?
Our strategy will depend on the situation. It might be merely to destroy the syrian government. It might be to have a decade long occupation of Damascus. It might be to kill Assad and the hardliners and replace them with a puppet regime made up of collaborators in the Syrian government. It might be to break syria up into smaller states.

Israels meager population whose technological advancements mean very little when fighting a war against 2 heavily armed states back by the Chinese and Russia

Lets be realistic. Russia and China are not going to send armies into the levant to fight israel. Period. Russia can barely send troops into chencnya. And if they invade a US ally, they'll be at risk of being at war with the US, and that means MAD. Same with china, only more so. China has absolutely no ability to project its military power. THeir entire offensive strategy is linked to getting across the straits of Taiwan, not the himalayas and persian deserts.

The usage of Nuclear devices would have the obvious ramifications which would further polarize the Jewish population.

If Iran, the Arab League, Russia, and China invaded Israel, they're be nuts to not Nuke Moscow, Beijing, Damascus, Riyadh, etc etc. The rammifications of being occupied by them are far worse then having set off nukes.

To fight alongside another people who are being bombed by terrorists, and to fight against, in your reasoning, the russians and chinese who are already secretly fighting us?

Terrorists? Who are the terrorists?

There's no need to jump into some academic arguement about 'who's a terorrist, who's a freedom fighter'. The islamist militants are terrorists to the only people that count in this segment of the discussion, the US and Israel. If we want to call them freedom fighters, fine, then the US and Israel have a common interst to attack the islamist freedom fighters.

Iran fully supported the U.S fight against Al-Queda in Afghanistan, or did you forget that?

Oh yes, I forgot about all those Iranian Troops that were fighting side by side with the americans and british. And remember when the REvolutionary Guard captured Kandahar and hung the leaders of the Taliban? Glorious days.

You want us to side with two government who refuse to talk to so called rouge states and would rather wait for the opportune casus belli.

As opposed to side with the Iranian government, or the Syrian government? Hell yeah.

You have no absolute reason to say this will stand true in the future.

Three Letters: M A D .

We didnt' fight each other over the invasion of europe and the cold war, we're certainly not going to kill each other over Israel. EVEN IF the US is, in your reckoning, a slave of Israel that'd join the fight, Russia sure aint'. Russia has nothing worthwhile to gain by getting nuked in an attempt to invade Israel.

China and Russia have much reason to defend their vital interests with the Middle East as the U.S has to oversize its' hegemony within it.

I like how for Russia, its 'intersts', but the US, its hegemony. What do you think the two superpowers want there? Arms contracts? No, both want dominance, Hegemony. Being in America, I'm going to say that an American Hegemony is prefered to a Russian Hegemony.

Regardless, they need not engage in open warfare when they can instead supply Iran with defensive and offensive military applications.

Russia and CHina aren't going to sell Iran their most advanced weapons. No country does that. The US military can beat the Russian and Chinese militiaries, so of course it can beat a surplus sale Iranian military. Russia supplied Iraq in the Iraq War, and look at how quickly Iraq's army fell. Iran's army will fall just as surely. Sure, they'll be able to organize an insurgency, attack the other sects, to provoke retaliation attacks and destablize the country. And then the US will leave. Who would've won that war eh? The americans, or the iranians? Who won the IRaq war, the americans, or the iraqis, busily killing each other every day, bombing their owns mosques, infrastructure, and civil society?

[uote] Do you truly believe they would precious applications in a country that can easily be defeated?
I don't think that they would give top of the line materials and technology to the iranians, knowing full well that iran would fall to the americans, no. And if you notice, they're NOT giving them that. They've been part of the group of nations giving iran nuclear power technology, which iran got under the NPT. They haven't given them modern tanks, jets, bombs, missile defense systems, etc. Meanwhile, Israel HAS a nation wide missiel defense sheild. They have top of the line Jets and tanks. They have even a small naval pressense. The iranians have none of this. They have equipment and training that is slightly better than that of Hussein's army.

If the arabs try to invade Israel, again, they will get defeated. Nothing has changed between now and then, except that Israel is stronger, richer, and better defended, and the arabs are weaker and more fractured, and russia, their only real patron, is weaker, the USSR having fallen apart.


So the arabs are welcome to try to invade Israel, again, and get defeated, again, and have more of their territory occupied, again. Maybe its about time that we had an Israeli governor in Cairo and Riyadh.

If Israel were attacked?

I would hate to even consider this. Why? well Israel has Subs underwater 24/7, in the Mediterranean Sea and yes they are Nuclear, even if Israel was wiped off the face of the earth in a matter of seconds their subs capabilities are enough to make every one of their enemies go by by too, many times over.


This would be a mess for all of us, so lets hope cool heads prevail.

[edit on 4-3-2007 by Realtruth]

Israel will survive just fine. Syria is nothing. Iran is nothing much.

THE sunni arab world is not friends of shiite non arab IRAN.

And if israel is fighting for its life then the guerilla tactics won't do much as israel will resort to unrestricted warfare civiliian casualties be damned.

[edit on 4-3-2007 by American Madman]

Nygdan, A few home truths.

American tried to do a deal with the Taliban over the new oil Pipe line from Kazakstan, the US thought they were owed one after getting rid of the Russians. When they changed their minds on the deal we had the invasion of Afganistan, the pipeline goes ahead.

Saddam insane had been a willing patsy and friend of the west and a bulwark against Iran. Saddan dossent play ball so we have iraq1. No saddam has lost it and America was kicked out of Iran, the controllers are concerned at the flowering Islamic state of Iran, which was pro west but the US fooked up with that one.

So with Saddam swinging his arms like a gorrila (no disrespect to gorillas) and the clerics ploting and planing in Iran time to think of a plan.

The kill 2 birds with one stone plan, lets kill thousands of out own people, blame it on Saddam and use it to re invade Iraq but this time we stay, cuase the US has made a balls of it on previous excursions, this way the US is in the front line with Iran, plus it provides bases nearer to its next targets, North Korea/China.

Al Qaeda, dreamed up by the CIA and others, Perhaps you can explain why your Goverment did not atttack SA, did not Buffon Bush say the US would attack any who harbour terrorists that attack the US, dam well he's not good with maps and bits of paper as we know and the trillions of SA investment in the US would not have anything to do with it would it.

Anway back to the script, plan sorry. A strong ME is not good for business its funny how Saddam said he's goin to trade in Euro's and then gets invaded and Iran soon to be next. Oh and as a bonus the US gets to give Israel even more protection so its drinks all round.

The American Hyper power that crows from its lofty summit that no one can hurt it and no one can attack it. I 'm sure there are many sensible Americans who do care about their country and what happens to it. Anyway I'm drifting again, so there you have it a country with no power to speak of with no WMD's, piss poor and broken backed but the US says its a threat to it and the rest is history.

So Israel knowing it cannot survive an attack on all fronts is part of the grand plan especially after getting a bloody nose, losing how many tanks to Hezbollah, that normally does not happen does it. Whilst I'm all for the strong protecting the weak, the strong should protect all the weak not just the ones it like

America has a piss poor history when it comes to its Foreign policy usually the tale between the legs variety, I would not place great store on such shaky foundations.

Americans are dying to save Israelis if you say so or not, you cannot have both ways, if Israel is a strong as you say and its potential enemies are so weak why dose it need US support.