What are the chances of something actually happening?

Given all the various factors that apply to you (living in a tornado-prone area, living near a weapons/chemical factory or military installation, near a national monument or in a large capital city, etc.), what do you think are the chances of a disasterous "Situation X" type event actually striking you personally within your lifetime, to the point that all your preparations have all been worthwhile and you will actually need to use your BoB?

What number would you apply to the likelihood?
One in a million chance?
20% likely? 80% likely?

Obviously it's better to be prepared and have nothing happen, than to be unprepared in a critical situation. But I would just like to get a feel for how "impending" everyone feels such a crisis is. You can take short-term political and world issues into account, but it's probably better to think overall in the long term.

The group that I am affiliated with have surmised that the chances of a SitX occuring is at least 75%.
We all live near Dallas, TX. There are a couple of military bases as well as silos in the area so, our area would be a prime target. When you consider the emotional stabability of the world today well......
We also are in tornado alley so weather also plays a major factor in our estimates.
Similar to many groupd in the north like Michigan, we feel that the US goverment no longer represents the people and is no longer is equipped to meet the needs or the wants of it's citizens. Unlike our norther breathren though we are not the extremists like they are, ready to take up arms now against the goverment. We would love to see the US goverment take the initative and start paying attention to it's people but we are not going to force the issue.

But the thing is, the huge event might not happen, but something else could.

Like say you were driving along a highway in the middle of nowhere in the middle of winter. You run out of gas and it's nightime. You are stuck in snow with no way to get anywhere. You would have to use what you know, and if you have any supplies in the car use them too.


It's not that unlikely that something like that could happen to somebody, so it's good to know that you'd be safe anyway. Theres a whole bunch of situations that could happen anytime that you should be prepared for. Not just an end of the world type thing.


But as for a huge end of the world type thing - I'd say....15%?

The chances that something is going to happen to someone somewhere? 100%

The chances that SHTF in my hood? Incalculable.

Too many unknown variables to even begin to try to formulate a probability. Because of this, one must assume the chance to be 100% at all times, and prepare appropriately.

I think that the risk of severe economic distress in the U.S. is substantial, something similar to, and maybe even worse than, the Great Depression.

I think this is because there are extreme imbalances in the globalized economy that, when they unwind, will hit the U.S. particularly hard. These factors include the federal deficit, trade imbalances, the loss of manufacturing and manufacturing jobs, extreme debt and financial leveraging, the slide in the housing market, risks to the value of the dollar, dependence upon oil and oil's dependence on political stability in the Middle East, etc., etc. So many trends look very bad indeed, and it is possible that many of these things could hit the fan all at once -- a perfect storm. Many things could be the trigger that would start the dominoes falling -- hedge fund failures, for example, or a U.S. attack on Iran that would send oil prices through the roof.

I fear it could be worse than the Great Depression because of the technology traps that exist now that did not exist in the 1930s. Also in the 1930s, the U.S. population was much closer to its roots as an agrarian society, and most people could cope much more independently with economic hardship. Now we have much longer supply chains that are much more vulnerable to economic shocks and delivery shocks.

We also have an authoritarian regime in power in the U.S. that is just itching to restrict invididual liberty, weaken our democracy, and assert control.

It's impossible to predict, of course, but my gut feeling is that the chances of an economic breakdown in this country within the next two years is greater than 50 percent.

Originally posted by daltoni
I think that the risk of severe economic distress in the U.S. is substantial, something similar to, and maybe even worse than, the Great Depression.

I fear it could be worse than the Great Depression because of the technology traps that exist now that did not exist in the 1930s. Also in the 1930s, the U.S. population was much closer to its roots as an agrarian society, and most people could cope much more independently with economic hardship. Now we have much longer supply chains that are much more vulnerable to economic shocks and delivery shocks.

I absolutely agree, our society is so too dependent on technology, myself included. We are used to fast food, the internet, remotes for TVs, etc.

I certainly can see where being too reliant on technology can be a bad thing.

I live in earthquake country. I've been through a few biggies, and they were part of why I decided to learn about independent survival and food storage...

What do I give as odds that something will affect the entire world? Not too high. But in my neck of the woods, riots, earthquakes, and massive fires are not unheard of...so I'd say probably about 50% that I'll have to survive on my own for a time.

Thus I prepare.

Regards-
Aimless

85% Short term 99.99% long term. Ive been wrong before and I hope ime wrong on this. I feel that soon maybe even very soon We will have to BO or hucker, and ime afrade it will only be the begginning.