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The White House budget sent to Congress on Monday shows the deficit declining moderately during the remaining years of George W. Bush's presidency – from 1.9 per cent in fiscal 2006 to 1.6 per cent in 2008 – plunging more rapidly from around the time he leaves office, and finally turning into a 0.3 per cent surplus in 2012.
This deficit dynamic is substantially driven by the way the budget accounts for the cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. It accounts for these costs in full in 2008 and sets aside $50bn to cover unforeseen war-related expenses in 2009, but makes no provision for one-off war costs in 2010 or beyond.