A World of Paper Tigers, like China!

I disagree with your assertions in regards to the article I posted. But thats another time and place.

Deadalous, are you indian?

I actually like Indias chances more then I do chinas. It is the second-fastest growing economy in the world and would probably be first if China allowed its currency to float freely like India does. And Its the largest democratic nation on earth. I think India and the US have much to benefit off of one anther by being close allys



[edit on 022828p://3002am by semperfoo]

I think you've got my nick all hilariously wrong but yes I am Indian; and that is why I said I am biased in that regard..

Good opinion but it was basically an assessment of the current and former chinese military that you based future growth on. Consider these facts, chinas military has lost over 6 million soldiers beginning in the 1980s with a budget of 6 billion to an army of 1.6 million with a budget of 35 billion.

- The huge increase in transport aircraft
- The expanding navy which has just increased by leaps and bounds in one decade (both training and technology)
- Chinas white papers
- The Chinese need for raw materials


The chinese military has undergone the largest reformation that ANY military has gone through in the last two decades. Weapons have not been replaced as yet but doctrines have changed dramatically. Basically similar to the Germans using cardboard trucks as tanks but china is using older equipment to train troops in new tactics.

My opinion about chinas motives are based on historical references. China has always considered herself the centre of the earth and used surrounding states topay tribute and a lesser extent as trade. The silk road offered china trade and wealth and need to be protected. Modern china has her own silk road in the form of the strings of pearls.

- China
- South-china sea
- Singapore/indonesia/malaysia/thailand
- Burma
- Friendly India
- Gawadar
- Persian Gulf

She is also starting to court #ries with strategic importance aswell as places with raw materials. Nigeria, Sudan, Venuzla, Angola and as we speak the chinese leadership is traveling through these countries signing even more agreements. China does not need 11 CBG or hundreds of bases world wide to be a superpower or project power, all it needs is guaranteed supply lines opened and markets for these products which are unlikey to be shut down. Thats the reason why America didn't going around conquring soviet allies or stopping soviet/japanese/german trade to stop competitors

Originally posted by mel1962
Vietnam (1979) - Month long war, China was unable to mobilize over half of its forces and quarter of it army. 25% casualty rate and they were repelled, very poor performance.

China didn't want to mobilize half its forces, it mobilized 200,000 troops in the Guangzhou military district and used 80,000 of them. It was a border actions in Chinese eyes and these forces were tiny compared to the forces china could have prepared. The airforce also wasnt used in this conflict. You state that china was repelled, they were never repelled, they retreated after their objectives where met

But its not logical to compare the chinese army based on th "peoples war" concept to the new chinese army which is more streamlined as well as having more firepower and equipment to call upon

Sino-Soviet Border Conflict (1969) - Very small incident, China was unable to make advances. So-so performance.

It was one regiment againest a lot more Soviet soldiers fighting over a few square kilometers of land. The risk of a soviet invasion was much to great aswell as nuclear war so both sides retreated and negoitated for a cease-fire agreement

Two questions.

Why does china need power projection?
Why does having American-like projection capabilities necessary?. More Iraqs?

Originally posted by Daedalus3
Only now have they given importance to the Tibetian province and the surroundings.

China had been stationing more than 150,000 troops in tibet since the 1950s. some sources suggest that they stationed 500,000 as well as 14 airbases/strips. Xingjiang has always had a heavy military presence because of the soviet threat and such, has been guarded respectively. It is now the testing grounds for chinas new "mobility" divisions.

Another very important thing China needs to do is increase the English-speaking population tremendously.

Some sources say china has the largest amount of English users in the world

Originally posted by chinawhite

China had been stationing more than 150,000 troops in tibet since the 1950s. some sources suggest that they stationed 500,000 as well as 14 airbases/strips. Xingjiang has always had a heavy military presence because of the soviet threat and such, has been guarded respectively. It is now the testing grounds for chinas new "mobility" divisions.

Well whether they were there or not is debateable but they certainly cannot put pressure on any countries to the west of China. Not even today. Xingjiang's northern borders may have had troops and that too in heavily defensive postures. Nothing that would enable the push off these forces northward(or westward) and their sustenance in foregin lands thereafter.

Some sources say china has the largest amount of English users in the world

Which sources? If you include HongKong's population then you get a couple of million here and there.

yaleglobal.yale.edu...

[edit on 6-2-2007 by Daedalus3]

Originally posted by Daedalus3
Nothing that would enable the push off these forces northward(or westward) and their sustenance in foregin lands thereafter.

Anywhere near chinas border up to 1000km will be able to be targeted. Chinas airborne transport fleet is not as deleted as most people think and will be almost doubling in large transport in the next couple of years. About 2 airborne divisions will then be able to be transported within a 24 hour period.

The one thing the chinese leadership recognized before was that most conflicts in the future will be small-scale and lightning quick to aviod big build up of forces, basically proxy wars. What china hopes to achieve with its RRU based on the "local wars under high tech conditions" is to catch the enemy before it has time to mobilize or disrupt this mobilization which gives time for the other PLA units to mobilize. The largest conflicts the PLA would face are local dissent among its Muslim or minority population apart from Taiwan so its well suited to this type of combat. It also has the opportunity to stop regime change with its SCO neighbours even after the colour revolutions which occurred. Some analyst are now suggesting that these new RRU are aimed at the North Korean regime

Which sources? If you include HongKong's population then you get a couple of million here and there.

English has been the national second language taught in chinese schools since at least 1993

Source< br />
Wikipedia also sources an article which claims 200-300million from 1995.


But they made a distinction between a "speaker" and a "user" which is the same as India. Note that both are not a cesus report but both are estimates, Indias estimate being from a small survey done and multiplied by the population

Originally posted by Daedalus3
yaleglobal.yale.edu...

No offence to yaleglobal but that is by far the most ridiculous estimate process I have ever seen

The population of India passed a billion a couple of years ago, and is increasing at the rate of 3% per annum. In 1997 an India Today survey suggested that about a third of the population had the ability to carry on a conversation in English. This was an amazing increase over the estimates of the 1980s, when only about 4%-5% of the population were thought to use the language. And given the steady increase in English learning since 1997 in schools and among the upwardly mobile, we must today be talking about at least 350 million.

Maybe they should have stuck to their estimates in the 1980's


Your article itself says china had more than the few million here or there, although I dont know why china is second closets with 220million when America should have over 220million English speakers

China is the closest competitor for the English-speaking record with some 220 million speakers of English

[edit on 6-2-2007 by chinawhite]

Originally posted by chinawhite
Maybe they should have stuck to their estimates in the 1980's

Yeah right.. why? To suit your suppositions?
Or maybe you'd like to conduct a census here yourself to be sure..

Your article itself says china had more than the few million here or there, although I dont know why china is second closets with 220million when America should have over 220million English speakers

Agreed.. china is third then!!


P.S: I don't think you'd want to apply to Yale after this!!


[edit on 6-2-2007 by chinawhite]

The US will most likely continue to be the worlds only superpower as its now for 20 years. After that China will be a superpower aswell maybe not as though and such as the US but it will be a superpower. I do think that china wont want to have global force projection capabillities. They may become something new: a superregionpower. I think 10-20 years after china india will reach superpower status aswell but i know less about india then i know about china which is still isnt much.

It is the Fate of every country to rise and fall. The US most likely already had its peak in terms of dominance over the rest of the world. My estimates on the future all depend however on the current status of the world. I wouldnt be suprized at all if the coming 50 years will see some dramatic changes that will change everything.

China might become a true superpower one day (I place emphasis on the word 'might' - China's power at the moment is based upon its economy, which needs a lot of care and attention to keep growing. A surge in military spending or a war would be the worst thing for China to do since it relies heavily on imports and exports). But will it ever surpass the US? I have to say that's very unlikely in our lifetime.

People say "China will probably surpass the US in the next 20/30 years". I'm inclined to disagree, because it sounds as if you're assuming the US will just sit around and do nothing in the mean time. It simply won't - nations aren't like that. The US has taken a century to dominate global affairs - it'll keep trying to maintain that position that has taken so long to achieve.

You've also got to remember that war is not really in anyone's interest at the moment - like I said earlier, if China wants to maintain economic growth then it has to keep the military in check... they can see what happens when you pump excessive amounts of funding into your military by simply looking at North Korea or the USSR in its later years. And we know the US had the ability to outspend the USSR on its military budget and still maintain a successful economy - I imagine that, given time to prepare (which it almost certainly would have), the United States could do this again. Also, a lot of China's cash comes from trading with the US and other nations friendly towards America - indeed, many Western companies invest in China. Upsetting them could have a disastrous impact...

So yeah, I'd say that at the moment China is a paper tiger. It will change as time goes by, but this change will be gradual as China's economy continues to evolve and mature. And really, China has no real need for a huge military. No one particularly wants to attack it (though they have the occasional dispute with India and Russia) and it has no reason to project military power on a global scale. What would really benefit China would be to cut down a little on the military and start embracing the West - China's primary benefactors, because they can offer a lot more than going it alone or aligning with Russia.

Chinawhite = Bejing Line, or are you a communist party member in China?

The more you post, the more you blow your cover comrade! China will implode internal before it becomes a true superpower! Its economy is growing, but it has one of the most corrupt and unscrupulous government in the world.

"The Chinawhite doth protest too much. . ."

[edit on 2/9/07 by mel1962]

Originally posted by mel1962
Chinawhite = Bejing Line, or are you a communist party member in China?

The more you post, the more you blow your cover comrade! China will implode internal before it becomes a true superpower! Its economy is growing, but it has one of the most corrupt and unscrupulous government in the world.

1) eventhough corruptions do exist on a fairly large scale in china, still the theory of china will soon implode internally is nothing more than a propaganda made by the west.

2) the idea of china sending a lot communists to the US to brainwish americans is even more rediculous than the previous one: it's made by FalunGong!

lmao

[edit on 2/9/2007 by warset]

Originally posted by mel1962
Chinawhite = Bejing Line, or are you a communist party member in China?

Beijing line?. Their line is a peaceful rise not what I have been saying about chinas projection capabilities. The fact that I made china out to have more capabilities have affected your American pride and restorted to calling a drone in all but name


Why do I have to be the one working for the Chinese government, do you work for the American government

Originally posted by Ste2652
And really, China has no real need for a huge military. No one particularly wants to attack it (though they have the occasional dispute with India and Russia) and it has no reason to project military power on a global scale..

They reaaaaaaaaallly need to protect their energy routes that cut across the Indian ocean and the straits of Malacca.
And that is going to be tough..

warset & chinawhite

Read the facts on globalsecurity.org, you should not delude yourself with the propaganda out of Bejing. You can say whatever you want, but the reality of the situation is China can't and won't be able to control the sea lanes by which oil and goods flow.



[edit on 2/10/07 by mel1962]China Military Guide!

[edit on 2/10/07 by mel1962]

Originally posted by mel1962
You can say whatever you want, but the reality of the situation is China can't and won't be able to control the sea lanes by which oil and goods flow.

you know what china also can't control?

the US decides to domb china with 10000 nukes
or
FalunGong decides blast china off into million pieces with their psycho power

but it will unlikely to happen any time soon.

PS.most of the globalsecruity stuff on china is heavily outdated, you should check sinodefence for more modern stuff, or check the FalunGong website(dajiyuan) for modern psycho stuff. good luck!

[edit on 2/10/2007 by warset]

Originally posted by warset

Originally posted by mel1962
You can say whatever you want, but the reality of the situation is China can't and won't be able to control the sea lanes by which oil and goods flow.

you know what china also can't control?

the US decides to domb china with 10000 nukes
or
FalunGong decides blast china off into million pieces with their psycho power

but it will unlikely to happen any time soon.

PS.most of the globalsecruity stuff on china is heavily outdated, you should check sinodefence for more modern stuff, or check the FalunGong website(dajiyuan) for modern psycho stuff.

good luck!

[edit on 2/10/2007 by warset]

Warset, will do, I am always interested in other web sites and info!
Thanks

PS - What is this FalunGong you keep referring too?

[edit on 2/10/07 by mel1962]

FalunGong is today's major propaganda machine that propagates anti-china materials

most of those stories are either fake(made up) or heavily biased to the point where they are wrong

FalunGong medias, ever since their very first existance, have become the #1 back up for anti-china movements (especially for those so called human rights watchdogs)

when ever they feel like making more money, they'll just create somesort of "headline story" of china destroying humanity.

it turns out that they've managed to make huuuge amount of money(especially from north america) by creating those ficticious stories.

i read them as jokes all the time. and most people in the chinese community do joke around about these stories;
where as the none-chinese related americans actually take them seriously. how sad

PS. last year they even made themselves to the whitehouse during chinese president's visit, and screamed at Hu during his speach infront of the whitehouse (you probably know this incident)
and in the end, the lady who screamed didn't even get fined or anything at all... cuz the whole thing is probably backed by the US government anyway

[edit on 2/10/2007 by warset]

Originally posted by warset
and in the end, the lady who screamed didn't even get fined or anything at all... cuz the whole thing is probably backed by the US government anyway

That or the US Government decided to honour the First Amendment?

China's going to be an interesting country to watch over the next few decades. How long will the Communist Party cling to power? Will China get involved with any of the wars of the future or stick to its economic growth? Should be a very interesting period within China indeed.