2007 Hurricane Forecast: Is La Niña Coming?

With El Niño on the decline and models hinting at La Niña, we are looking at a very active Atlantic hurricane season for 2007. This could also explain why the unbelievably warm winter is becoming more normal across most of the Northern Hemisphere this week.

Sea Surface Temperature Images



The weak El Niño is beginning to die off.


Models hinting at La Niña by summer.

So it looks like La Nina is coming and if this is coupled with a postive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, it will mean an even greater risk to the Eastern US coast for tropical storms.

As a catostrophic claims insurance adjuster, this news causes mixed feelings for me.
Yes this is how I make a living, at least 30% of the year but after seening the destruction caused by Katrina and Rita first hand it makes me sad at the same time.
On the one hand these people homes and lives were destroyed but on the other hand, as an Independent Adjuster (IA), im in a position to help them get the money theyre owed a lot faster. Being an IA, I dont actually work for the Insurance Co so I am free to give the people every penny they deserve, without the pressures of the company breathing over my shoulder.
I had a very slow work year in 2006 and could use the work this year but like i said, i feel sad that a persons home has to be damaged so that i can feed my family..

edited (for spelling as usual)

[edit on 27-1-2007 by Kr0n0s]

Originally posted by Kr0n0s
As a catostrophic claims insurance adjuster, this news causes mixed feelings for me.

We could hit a fifth Kelvin wave and the El Niño gets even stronger, but it doesn't look that way. This El Niño was rather odd since it started at the end of summer too.

Officially, I would keep and eye on the ENSO data and see what the CPC says in the coming weeks. CPC El Niño Southern Oscillation

[edit on 27-1-2007 by Regenmacher]

Yes the El Nino really hurt the predicitions for an active hurricane season last year. The wind shear coming across Central and South America, from west to east, essentially ripped apart any storms before they could even get orginized.
Aside from the destruction and heartaches that these storms create, they are truly a site to behold.. I am in awe of the power these storms create and I can only dream of ever having the opportunity to fly with the AirForce, hurricane hunters, into the eye of one of these things

Austrialia's BoM puts nail in the El Niño coffin, models are now in consensus that we will have a neutral ENSO perhaps within a month. A neutral ENSO refers to periods when neither El Nino nor La Nina is present

FORECAST ENSO CONDITIONS

The consensus from the models is that the Pacific Ocean's anomalous warmth has peaked and a modest but steady cooling trend may be expected in the first half of 2007. This pattern is fairly typical of the demise of past El Niño events.

Atlantic hurricane activity will be enhanced by neutral ENSO conditions and La Niña is even more.

NOAA La Niña page

[edit on 29-1-2007 by Regenmacher]