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Originally posted by Essan
I would treat all leaks on what the IPCC AR4 may - or may not - say with extreme caution. Even when the actual reports are released, I expect the media to "misquote out of context" a fair bit in order to generate more dramatic headlines. At a moment it's a bit like determining the plot of a movie from a 30 second trailer. Yes, the good guy gets shot and there's a car chase - but you don't yet know the context in which these events take place
Far, far better to wait until you get a chance to read the AR4 yourself (or at least, the Summary for Policy Makers - the full report will be pretty technical for anyone not a professor in atmospheric science etc) before drawing any conclusions or getting into any discussions.
Originally posted by loam
As many anticipate the report's release later this week, some details are already emerging...
A chilling conclusion on global warming
The report will say that global warming caused by human activity is no longer a theory. It is a fact.
...
[T]he report will ask and answer four basic questions:
- Can humans affect the climate system and, if so, what changes have been observed? The report will say that natural factors alone can no longer explain the changes seen in the second half of the 20th century, citing a new physical understanding of the climate system.
- How sure are we that humans are responsible for climate change? The report will say that it is a virtual certainty that humans have caused the change, meaning that the scientists are "99 percent" certain.
- How different will the climate be in the future? The climate, its chemical mix now substantially altered by higher concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, will continue to warm. Ice sheets will continue to melt, making sea levels rise.
- How has science changed our understanding of global warming since international efforts were launched in 1990? All the evidence has come together, scientists say, to form an internally consistent story.
More...
Here's the real surprise...
Think the report might be too alarmist? Here's what top US Scientists say:
Melting ice means global warming report all wet, say some experts who warn it'll be even worse
Later this week in Paris, climate scientists will issue a dire forecast for the planet that warns of slowly rising sea levels and higher temperatures.
But that may be the sugarcoated version.
See, also, Glacial earthquakes
Stay tuned... and hope for the best. It looks like we are going to need it.
Last warning: 10 years to save world
Scientists say rising greenhouses gases will make climate change unstoppable in a decade
THE world has just 10 years to reverse surging greenhouse gas emissions or risk runaway climate change that could make many parts of the planet uninhabitable.
The stark warning comes from scientists who are working on the final draft of a new report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
and...
We can say there were times during the warmer periods of the last 10,000 years when glaciers have been comparable to what they are now,
but it is not the past that worries us, it is the future. With the scenarios predicted, we will enter conditions which we have not seen in the past 10,000 years, and perhaps conditions which mankind has never experienced.
Originally posted by andy1033
yep i understand people want to jump the gun, but unless they are clear on what there findings are, and there words have strengh behind them, it is just a waste of time. saying things like likely just leaves things open, thats all i am saying.
i understand that it may not be the final wording or the report. i have not read the past reports, so it will be intersting to see what it actually says.
i wonder what percentage of the scientists accept the findings, that are not part of the group, and is this board accepted as knowing what they are talking about.
Only God deals in certainties.
Unfortunately, we're talking about what will probably happen in the future based on the latest scientific understandings and research, and thus it's impossible to state absolutely - hence a range of possiblities with regards temp change etc.
It would be advisable to read the summary of the previous report (TAR) first.
Nonetheless, as in all branches of science, there are some who disagree on certain findings.
Originally posted by elysiumfire
Hi There,
Only God deals in certainties.
How do you know this? Your assumption is simply presumption!
It would be advisable to read the summary of the previous report (TAR) first.
Thanks for the advice, but I'll take the more recent and up-to-date reports for my information. Your quote merely represents a body of thought that seeks to obsfucate and cast doubt upon those preparing the report. It's a cliche trick from the 'book of aspersion'...just cast doubt, and cause confusion...don't allow the public to get a handhold on the reality of the issue. It's contemptuous!
Climate change means hunger and thirst for billions: report
Billions of people will suffer water shortages and the number of hungry will grow by hundreds of millions by 2080 as global temperatures rise, scientists warn in a new report.
The report estimates that between 1.1 billion and 3.2 billion people will be suffering from water scarcity problems by 2080 and between 200 million and 600 million more people will be going hungry.
The assessment is contained in a draft of a major international report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to be released later this year, Australia's The Age newspaper said.
Rising sea levels could flood seven million more homes, while Australia's famed Great Barrier Reef, treasured as the world's largest living organism, could be dead within decades, the scientists warn, the newspaper said.
More...
Originally posted by elysiumfire
Hi There,
Here I go again having to apologise...sorry Andy, I perceived (erroneously) a stab at the report and the report makers...
Originally posted by Essan
I walk a fine line, assailed from both sides .........
Originally posted by TheAvenger
If the U.N. report finally makes the case for G.W. with irrefutable evidence, I clearly am capable of changing my mind, and if so, I will lead the march for environmental reforms!
I walk a fine line, assailed from both sides...
Originally posted by Regenmacher
“In 39 years at NASA, I’ve never seen anything like the degree to which the information flow from our scientists to the public is as inhibited as it is now.”