Global Warming Has Ended

This is a story I wrote for my website. I thought it was worth sharing here.

"Yes you read right. Global warming has ended. Why would I make a claim like that when the main stream media is running with every story under the sun talking about how global warming is real? To me it is simple and I will explain why.

Global temperatures cover exactly that. They cover the globe. That means there is no reset. Temps on Jan 1 don't start out at average and then drift up or down. Global temperatures slowly adjust one direction or another and the yearly deviation is a way of tracking change. So if you are +1 degree in 2005 and +1.1 degrees in 2006 it doesn't mean that you've tacked on another 1.1 the following year. It means that for that 12 month period the global temperatures trended .1 degree higher. To even state this probably sounds stupid. But you are so used to hearing how we had the 5th warmest year on record or the 6th warmest year on record or whatever. It makes it look like we've stacked up the numbers from scratch over and over.

Here is where you have to stop and think about the numbers and understand where they are going. 1998 was the warmest year on record. I don't think many would dispute that. 2005 was the 5th warmest year on record. 2006 was the 6th year on record. What does that mean? That means since 1998 the global temperatures have been trending downward. Advertising that 2006 was the 6th warmest and that global warming is real makes for good press but it is very misleading. The report could have very well said that evidence suggests that global warming has reversed course. The reality is that over the past 8 years the global temperatures have been trending downward. That is a fact the numbers support.

If you look over the climate records you will see that following every great temperature spike there an equally impressive temperature crash. I think 1998 was the end of the great temperature spike and we've started our downward trend. I believe the instability in the ocean currents has triggered this change. Because the temperatures are trending down doesn't mean that the ice will stop melting. I think in many areas the ice will continue to melt which will supply more fresh water to an already unstable North Atlantic. This will only accelerate the downward temperature trend.

Make no mistake. We are headed into what is at best another little ice age. "

Originally posted by Indy
That means since 1998 the global temperatures have been trending downward.

That's meaningless. Thats a 7 year period. Thats called a 'short term trend', and is meaningless with respect to what is going on with global climate. We could have 7 years in a row, each successively warmer than the previous, and that would not mean that there is global warming. Similarly, we can have a decade of progressively colder years, and that does not mean that there is global cooling. These are short term trends, they are meaningless when you are talking about long term trends.

I disagree with what you are saying. I live in Saskatchewan, Canada. The temperature here varies from -35C and colder in the winter to +35C and sometimes warmer in the summer. 5 or more years ago we would have about 6-8 months of winter. Usually from mid September to mid April. The temperatures in the harshest winter months... December to February would very rarely climb past -20 for a high. -50 windchills were the norm here.

Over the past few years we have noticed a dramatic increase in temperature during the winter months. There are frequent days now during the harshest months mentioned above that are 0C or above. This is unheard of here. We are known for being one of the coldest provinces in Canada. But the past few years have been way above normal.

Today the high in Regina was 0C. Tomorrow the forecast calls for temps to reach +3C. Its January for god sakes. I am use to bone chilling cold not spring like temps in January.

I have always been interested in the weather and almost every day phone in to the pre-recorded weather line and watch the weather network to check the temperatures and have noticed that during the past couple of years we have seen a 5-10 degree increase in temperatures during the winter months!! That is a big increase and is very concerning.

We no longer have long harsh blistery winters, but more and more unseasonably mild and warm ones.

I can assure you that where I live it is NOT getting colder.

We are talking about GLOBAL averages since this is GLOBAL warming. Remember during the 70's it was global cooling. Then the patterns changed and it was global warming. Well the patterns have changed again. The warming has stopped and the temperatures are trending back downward.

If today was 80 and tomorrow was 79 would you say tomorrow was warmer? Of course not. That is where we are at now. Not only is tomorrow not warmer neither were the next 7 days after that. There is no longer a warming trend. It ended 8 years ago. Sorry to burst the global warming bubble but the temperatures have been slipping back. It is no longer getting warmer. To say it is getting warmer is to say that 76, 77 and 78 degrees are all warmer than 80.

If you're correct, then what causes the polar ice caps to melt? Is it just because the ice has been slowly melting to where it is now actually noticeable? What about the impact this has on the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Drift? Lastly, what about greenhouse gas and CO2 levels? I think Global Warming is a fright to anyone who reads about it and I can see that what you are saying makes sense.

(I know it's difficult to ascertain a persons tone with mere words and smilies...I am quite curious and am not being rude.)

I see what Indy is getting at here, however, my personal observations, and with what little reading up on this topic I've done, I believe it will take a much more dramatic increase in global warming to reach a point where there will be an extended period of cooling, or a mini ice age.

As more and more ice in the polar regions continue to melt and expose the earth beneath, the less sunlight will be reflected back out into space. Thus the heating should continue, combined with the production of greenhouse gasses this could cause continued "global warming" over a much longer period of time than many may be willing to believe.

What will cause this to change in a more rapid way, will be when or if there is a very large body of ice trapped on-land to either quickly melt, or slip into the ocean, if that unlikely scenario occurs then perhaps the resulting affects on ocean currents could be enough to cause a substantial period of global cooling, or an even more unlikely scenario would be for a major volcanic event that produces a massive amount of sun filtering ash and gasses into the atmosphere, this could also cause a period of intense cooling.

Bottom line, I believe we've yet to see the end of "global warming" and perhaps the worst is yet to come, and possibly sooner than many may want to even consider.

I'd say the forecast is for more extreme weather events, globally, and a trend toward much more intense warming, and polar ice melting. Mind you this does not necessarily mean there will be more hurricanes, or less, etc. what this means is that when weather events occur naturally they will be overall more extreme than normal.

Just my thoughts.

Thanks Indy for a thought provoking thread.

[edit on 23-1-2007 by UM_Gazz]

Originally posted by CPYKOmega
Over the past few years we have noticed a dramatic increase in temperature during the winter months.

That is NOT global warming, or at least, it can not be said to be due to global warming.

Climate fluccuates, and can move up and down within a trend, but still, long term, exhibit a trend. YOu can not actually say that because there has been warming for five years, that therefore there is Global Warming (that is, the theory that increase industrial co2 emissions are causing a long term global warming trend).

Indy
Remember during the 70's it was global cooling. Then the patterns changed and it was global warming.

The pattern did not change. There has been a warming trend since the 70's, indeed, since before the 70's. THere might've been years within the 70's that were progressively colder, but that doesn't matter, because global warming isn't about short term trends, its about long term trends.

If I walk up a road that is sloping up a hill, but there are ups and downs along the way, does that mean that when I get to the top of the hill, I am lower than when I started? Of course not, that wouldn't make the least bit of sense. Similarly, your 7 year observation is a small down curve within the larger up curve.

If today was 80 and tomorrow was 79 would you say tomorrow was warmer? Of course not.

That has nothing to do with global warming.

That is where we are at now.

This is incorrect. We are inside of a long term warming trend. THe past few years may have been progressively cooler. That does not mean that we are not in a long term warming trend, it means that there was a short, small, cool, episode within the warming.

There is no longer a warming trend. It ended 8 years ago.

By an extension of your reasoning, if the next few days get progressively warmer, then, what, global warming is back on??? It just switches on and off like that?

No, it doesn't. YOu add a gas, a chemical property of which is to trap heat, to the atmosphere, and you are going to trap heat in the atmosphere. Increase it for a long time, and you are going to have a long term warming trend. Within that, you will have some days that get progressively colder, and others that get even warmer than they should even with global warming.

Gazz if you look at the long term (100,000+ years) that we are at the point in which the temperature crash happened. Previous warming as found in the ice cores show that we are at the top. Previous spikes were similar. What followed would have been nothing short of disastrous. What we are looking at isn't some odd event. What we are looking at is a long term predictable cycle. These spikes and crashes are fairly evenly space out. Time is up.

Considering we are close to ending solar cycle 23 and at a solar minimum, I'd wait several years before making any crystal ball guesses about how global warming has ended. An assumed dip in the road is not a trend and then conclude it means an ice age is coming is even more ridiculous, especially since scientists still do not have enough knowledge or data of how much Earth absorbs or reflects sunlight.

Scientists Clueless over Sun's Effect on Earth LiveScience
Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle NCAR
Scientists say 2007 may be warmest yet Yahoo
2007 to be 'warmest on record' BBC

Btw, 2006 tied 1998 for the warmest on record in the contiguous U.S, and 2005 was the warmest year in over a century, so I have no idea what your basing your assumptions on either

Climate of 2006 - December in Historical Perspective NOAA

Background info:
Albedo -Wiki
Solar variation -Wiki

Buy sunblock and sell the sled dogs, then after 2012 you can tell me about this ice age cometh idea...


www.solarcycle24.com...



[edit on 24-1-2007 by Regenmacher]

Here in Germany we had temperatures of up to 17 degrees in winter, normally we would have snow and at least -5 - -10 degrees.

Also ive heard reports that 2007 will be the warmest year ever known since man has started to record the temperatures.

warmest year

and here

are you mental? even a 4 decade period is drastically smaller than a model would need to be to predict such a trend.

on another side though, what will global warming eventually cause? an ice age, why? because the green house gases will reflect the sunlight inevitably cooling the planet.

One thing I think we can all agree on is that we do not know even remotely enough about the cycles of mother nature. The earth, time and time again, shows us who's really in charge of things. Mankind thinks he/she can change this, but ends up paying the price in the end.

Isn't that what some folks have been saying all along though, that a warm cycle will usher in a new ice age?

All I know for sure is that where I live the weather is very, very strange. We had green grass, sunny skies, temperatures in the seventies, in the middle of January. The ground JUST froze, just last week or the week before, and it's coming up on February. The plants and animals are confused as Hell, just like us.

:shk:

That's freakin' strange for the area where I live (NE USA). We've gotten used to some pretty strange weather in these parts, but nothing like this - it's all folks are talking about on the street, at work, at the store. We haven't had any snow to speak of, and it's just now gotten cold enough that some snow is sticking. We had some flurries at the end of last week, and there are still patches on the ground, but that's it. Usually we have snow on the ground from just after Halloween until spring.

People can't believe what's happening, even the old folks who, having a larger data set to work with, are usually the last to classify something as strange when it comes to the weather. You know what I mean, if someone starts talkin' about the freak blizzard you just had, some old timer pipes up and reminds everyone of the great blizzard of ought-six, or whatever, that dumped four feet in seventeen hours at the onset of October. It's always been my experience anyway. The elderly folks I talk with are just as confused.

I remember one time I told my dad about a snow storm in Manhattan that was quite bad, to the point where some people were digging out their cars (I had never seen snow like that in the city, usually it was too warm to stick). He countered me with a story about a time when he was younger, working on Wall Street, and he was able to walk from midtown to the financial district, right down the middle of one side of Park Ave - during peak commute time.



Anyway, I'm up in the mountains, and even the old folks don't know what to make of this. Between one week and the next we saw temperatures pushing seventy, and then down to about ten below zero. It's very strange.

Obviously the common folks don't know a thing about ten thousand year weather cycles, so their comments are to be taken with a grain of salt, but any way you slice it, this weather is unstable. Whether it ushers in an ice age or not, I wouldn't be surprised at anything at this point.

Seriously, nothing would surprise me at this point. If the sky were to crack open, and a giant purple platypus were to come down on a golden surfboard to proclaim dominion over the earth, it wouldn't seem odd to me - that would feel like par for the course, with what's been going on.

Originally posted by Regenmacher
2006 tied 1998 for the warmest on record in the contiguous U.S, and 2005 was the warmest on record for the planet. I have no idea where what your basing your assumptions on either

The WMO states that 2005 was the warmest on record AFTER 1998. They also state that 2006 was the 6th warmest on record. 2004 was the 4th warmest. 2003 was the 3rd warmest. 2002 was the 2nd warmest. What does that say? That means 2002 wasn't as warm as 1998. 2003 wasn't as warm as 2002. 2004 wasn't as warm as 2003. And of course now 2006 wasn't as warm as 2004. So from 1998 to 2006 the ranking has dropped from 1st to 6th. The fact that you see consecutive years like 2002, 2003 and 2004 being cooler each year with only 2005 breaking trend between 2004 and 2006.

Beat 1998 and we'll talk.

Here are links that talk about 2005 being 2nd to 1998
www.livescience.com...
www.climateimc.org.../187
www.thehindubusinessline.com...
www.wmo.ch...

Originally posted by Indy
Beat 1998 and we'll talk.

I did, but you caught me between edits, since I was looking for a better source. It's now included above and here. You also have to note there's always degree of error in any data assimilation, so miniscule differences is not indicative of even a short term climate trend. I suggest you fall back on long term data analysis before climate wishcasting, and realize even the best of the best have problems forecasting a year out.





No one is going to establish any sort of long term trend accuracy based on inadequate and just a few years of data either, especially if it discounts the the role of our sun. So come on, you know better than to pull my leg.

Even the link you provided says what I just told you:


[edit on 24-1-2007 by Regenmacher]

Global warming hasn't ended because it never really started. It is a half baked theory, nothing more.

Im still waiting for concrete evidence that it is taking place right now, but IMHO im more inclinded to believe its increased solar output and solar cycles affecting us.

Originally posted by shrunkensimon
Global warming hasn't ended because it never really started. It is a half baked theory, nothing more.

The majority of the world's climatologists and meteorlogists have already acknowledge global warming is real and the current scientific debate has moved on to if global warming is anthropologically caused and can we do anything about it.
__________________________________

In regards to the topic



Lots of links to data and info here:



See article for data in regards to the statements:

Hi Reganmache, thanks for the links and info, I'll have to spend some time studying it.

Global warming is a combination of many, many factors. You can't say it's over just by looking at temps from the last few years. You have to take into consideration the various greenhouse gases and how they're interacting and how much of them there are for one thing. As Reganmacher said, the majority of scientists around the world agree that GW is happening. I would also add that most of them believe that human activity is the overwhelming factor, along with natural causes, too.

If we're cooling down then why are there so many places like Sascachewan (sp?) who have had such mild winters? I know where I live, in the Appalachians of NE Tennessee, that ever the oldtimers say they've never had such a warm winter ever in their lifetime. It should be in the low '20's at this point or even in the '30's and overcast, but almost everyday is sunny and in the '70's. It's unheard of.

If the earth is cooling, then why are the oceans getting warmer? Why are we having so much methane coming out of the earth undersea? That happens when temperatures are warmer and as it gets warmer, more methane comes up. Also, then why are the ice caps melting at record rates and why is there far less snow on Mr. Kilimanjaro, Mt. Everest and the Alps? Why are many birds not migrating this winter? Why is England in the summers, with brown grass, it's usually bright green and cool?

Global warming has only just started, hold onto your hats folks.

Originally posted by Regenmacher
The majority of the world's climatologists and meteorlogists have already acknowledge global warming is real and the current scientific debate has moved on to if global warming is anthropologically caused and can we do anything about it.

Majority means nothing, and in this case its the "consensus trance", where everyone agrees somethings true only because everyone else does.. Most people agreed the earth was flat once...need i say anymore?

Science today is no different than it was yesterday, as is our understanding of everything, which is being continously reviewed and updated.

The fact this so called "warming" has happened over a relatively short period of time means you can't rely on these conclusions drawn up by so called "experts". We know relatively little about how climate works on a global scale, and the interaction between the Sun and Earth, and also the forces that effect the Sun, which in turn effects us.


The one thing that demonstrates to me there is more going on than just Greenhouse gases is that Tectonic activity is also increasing both in magnitude and frequency, its not just the weather thats changing.

IMHO the changes we are seeing are "earth changes", and the global warming idea is merely a scheme to make money and at the same time hide the fact that the Earth itself is undergoing change, aswell as the entire solar system.

I feel there is a big change coming...perhaps not climate change, but in anycase, the powers that be are using this to their fullest advantage. In order to take more control over us, and perhaps give one last try at doing whatever they wish to do before the big change comes.