Iran out of exportable oil by 2015 - in 8 years

I couldn't find a topic on this. If there already is one, please give me the link.

Anyway I heard that Iran may run out of oil available for export in as early as 8 years and their oil will have to be used for domestic used which is heavily subsidized which will really cut down on a big revenue source for Iran's government. Oil revenue provided 65 percent of Iranian government revenue in 2004.
link below
www.chron.com...

This sounds like a good news bad news story. The good news is we can hopefully just wait a few years and Iran should be acting nicer towards the west. Anyone see any flaws with the prediction Iran will be out of exportable oil by 2015?

The bad news is this should send the price of oil a lot higher if we don't have altenative fuels available soon. It would mean the world oil markets lose over 3 million barrels of oil a day in 8 years. Anyone know what the price of oil would be if you took that amount off the market today?





[edit on 27-12-2006 by orionthehunter]

I don't know if this is true or not. I have a hunch that is is bogus - the opinion of someone wishing to further justify Iran's want of nuclear energy. But it is also true that Iran has done a poor job at managing their oil infrastructure, and have inadequate refining capabilities to meet the rising demand of gasoline in Iran. Iranians currently pay the rough equivalent of 35 cents per gallon. If their production of oil slowed or came to a near stop, their economy would fall apart.

I hope this is not true as the peak may be closer then thought. Iran could start a domino effect of crashing oil exports throughout the mid-east. It will be like a permanent involuntary embargo. Not pretty. If the chances are even as minute as 1 chance in a thousand that this is correct we should still immunize ourselves as best as possible as quickly as possible.

Actually I wouldn't mind if the general population didn't know or believe this information if it was true and it meant we were in store for an economic depression as soon as the world knows. I think oil prices might start spiking if enough people believed oil was going to be a problem that soon. I don't know what extra fuel capacity will become available within 8 years but losing 3 million barrels of oil a day from one country while demand is still increasing doesn't sound pretty.

Unfortunately if this becomes reality, an energy crisis of prices and supply could spark an economic crisis in more than just Iran in my opinion. If we knew if this information was true, our governments could give some major economic incentives to speed up implentation of alternative energy sources to help avoid an economic catastrophe of dwindling energy supplies. Unfortunately, I don't expect too much vision or help from the government.

On the bright side, Iran might not be considered a problem anymore.

[edit on 28-12-2006 by orionthehunter]

Hahaha your comments are too funny.

"Actually I wouldn't mind if the general population didn't know or believe this information if it was true and it meant we were in store for an economic depression as soon as the world knows"

Well duh have a look around, do you think the worlds economy is anything but a deck of cards waiting to fall already ? Just look at the US debt. What is it 50 Trillion according to some reports ?

"our governments could give some major economic incentives to speed up implentation of alternative energy sources to help avoid an economic catastrophe of dwindling energy supplies"

Are you actually serious ? Alternative energy sources ? Do you know who owns most of the patent rights to any alternative energy sources. Solar in particular ? Let's see. BP owns the rights to most Solar technology. Try and get your home converted to solar in Australia and you have to buy the panels off BP. How stupid is that ? Chevron Texaco owns the rights to nimh batteries and funnily enough a thin flexible solar film that was developed by the inventer of nimh batteries. No, if you look into it deep enough the oil companies CONTROL most of the alternative energy sources.

"On the bright side, Iran might not be considered a problem anymore. "

What ??? Now according to the controlled media Iran wants to wipe Israel off the map.... PERHAPS before making comments such as that you should look at what was REALLY said. He was talking about the political system in Israel and wiping THAT REGIME off the map. NOT the country. Read the whole speach he gave instead of reading the misquotes from the media. Iran is ONLY a problem because they are standing up to the terrorist activities of the US.

No such thing will happen. Iran's oil reserves are large and the export average per day does not match up to validate any such claim that Iran will run out of oil in 2015.