College Sports: National Championship game

Well, who's it going to be everyone? USC or Texas. I would like (being a Big 12 fan) to think that Texas can win this but come on how do you go against a team that has not lost in 34 games. I ll tell you how. First USC and Texas are #1 and #3 respectfully in offense. By my math those 2 rankings all but cancel one another. On the other hand USC ranks 46th defensively and Texas ranks 8th nationally. Furthermore USC has not face a team ranked even close to as high as Texas in defense. The highest defensive ranked team they have opposed is Fresno State at 42nd. Vince and the boys have the offensive firepower to stop the unstoppable but can the unstoppable stop the Longhorns?

I'm with you, I think that this is the team to stop the Trojan nightmare. The defense is the difference. I don't think that the Trojans will be able to overcome a slow start, which they seem to do with quite regularity this season.

I simply don't think the Trojans are that good. They have been in trouble repeatedly this year. Worst of all was the Fresno State game, when they got significantly behind, trailed by more than a TD at half (I believe, and don't you just know they got REAMED at halftime). Then they outscored Fresno something like 28-7 in the 3rd quarter and appeared poised to blow it open.

And then they proceeded to give up two unanswered scores and fall behind mighty Fresno AGAIN in the 4th. Not until later in the 4th did USC regain the lead for good, and even then, the mighty Trojans had to withstand a last-two-minutes Fresno drive that got all the way to a 1st-and-10 at the Trojans' 25 yard-line before Fresno finally ran out of steam on a potential game-tying drive.

I will tell you this. IF THE SAME USC TEAM THAT PLAYED FRESNO, OR THAT PLAYED TWO OR THREE OTHER TEAMS, SHOWS UP TO PLAY TEXAS, THEY WILL GET KILLED. That's for sure.

Yeah, if the same sorry-@ss Texas team that looked so awful against A&M shows up, the result could be awful, too. And as a Northern Californian, I've seen a lot more of USC than Texas.

So if I'm wrong, would y'all please correct me? But it seems to me that the A&M game was Texas's only real stinkfest this year. The Fresno State game was by no means USC's only one, nor was it the only game in which they gave up far too many points to far too mediocre a team. If that defense shows up for Texas, Leinhart and Bush cannot put enough points on the board to win it.

I remember an Oklahoma-Colorado (I THINK those were the teams) game in 1979 or 1980. Oklahoma won by something like 82-41. If the USC defense I've seen several times shows up to play Texas, then even if USC has a fine night offensively against Texas's great defense, they are liable to lose by some score nearly as ridiculous as that. I've watched Texas a lot this year, and that team looks awfully good to me. The USC defense looked terrific against UCLA's vaunted offense, but it's taken a lot of games off.

I don't think they're going to beat Texas, and if that lousy defense I've seen several times shows up for this game, it really WON'T matter how good their offense is. Winning a scorefest against Fresno is one thing. Doing it with Texas is quite another.

B.H.N.

well, in the old office pool, I picked Tesax to win. Let's hope that doesn't curse them...

Good news, y'all. There is a preeminent sports betting site which can be found at www.scoresandodds.com. In addition to giving the spread and totals and major injuries for all the major American sports, it has a feature you can click on called "Matchup." If you click on this, you will get tons of typical gambler info, like how these teams have done vs. the spread in their last umpteen games: (1) against each other; (2) on the road; (3) at home; (4) on grass; (5) on artifical turf; (6) and a billion other things.

BUT....

You also get one very other interesting feature. They have a computer which I think is like the one Vegas and the islands use to set their spreads, minus the adjustments for how the idiotic herd will pile up and bet. And when their computer differs from the actual spread by something like six or more points, they put a big green star on the game, which means something like: "Although this info is provided for news matter only, you might want to bet your brains out on this one." :tum:

In my experience, their computer is correct noticeably more than half of the time, though nothing like 70% of the time. Of course, one only needs to be right 52.38% of the time to.... Stop! I'm not going there. I am a recovered sports gambler and don't care whatever percentage one needs to beat an 11/10 book.

But here is what I DO CARE ABOUT:

Scores and Odds has the current spread at USC by 7-1/2, assuming that key Texas players are not suspended prior to gametime for whatever transgressions they're supposed to have committed. Thus, the perception is that the public is going to bet the bejesus out of USC, even at that number, and that they'd better put the number that high or they'll get killed if Texas fails to cover.

Do you know what the computer's spread for the game is?

Are you going to take my word for this?

Most of you have known me for some time now. Will you believe me, even if it's a huge disparity?

The computer says TEXAS BY FOUR POINTS. Yes, that's right. No misprint. An 11.5 difference from what the sportsbooks have.

I'm so far in debt, a few more grand won't matter much, and I LOVE my chances on this one. I have a friend who lives right across the border, in Tahoe, and unlike me had the good sense to go in to a field of law which pays tons of money, so he could go right on over to Stateline and plunk down however much money I wanted to get myself in trouble over, lol.

DAMN, that's a big swing between those spreads. What do y'all think. Here is the million-dollar question:

If this game turns into a shootout, can Texas's offense stay with USC's and wind up with one of these 51-47 scores?

Many of y'all are from the South, and I believe several are Texans. I know for sure what sort of a religion Texas football is in that state. And you know for sure what sort of awesome offense USC has when it's clicking. Despite its embarrassing performance against A&M, which I'm sure was a case of their looking ahead to Colorado and the title game, are Texas's offense and defense up to matching USC blow for blow, if it turns into one of those games.

Y'already know what I think from watching them this season: The wrong team's favored. NOW I see an 11.5 point chasm between the time I like to win and the one bettors like to win. Isn't that DAMN hard to avoid???

Any informed, statistically detailed info from neutral parties, or from parties who can present their case in a detached manner, will be enormously appreciated.

B.H.N.

Texas baby.They have a great Pass D and lets see USC likes to pass about 46 percent of the game.So thats good for Texas.Also if Texas can injure or just stop the monster Reggie Bush then its over.But on the other hand USC has a good D but i think Vince Young will run and pass all over them.In the end Texas wins stops the streak and I am happy.

the more you look at this game the harder it is to decide. across the board the statistics are so comparable. offensively i would call it a toss up. points scored 611-600 Texas. USC has run about 70 more plays and averages a half yard more per play. leinart leads in passing but not by a landslide. young has 1 less TD and 3 more ints but he also has 850 rush yards to leinart's 34.

now defense on the other hand. USC has been tested defensively and failed only to be saved by reggie, matt and the boys. Texas has given up 175 points and USC has given up 256. USC is ranked 27th in total defense and the longhorns are ranked 4th. with the offensive statistics so close this seems to be the deciding factor. also the texas kids that were involved in the criminal activity are not going to be prosecuted. it is difficult in my mind to bet against a team with a 34 game win streak but i do believe the streak will end at the rose bowl.

Attorney: Texas Football Players Will Not Be Charged

Very difficult game to decide, but I think that most people outside of Southern Cali are leanign towards Texas, since everyone loves an underdog. But, how much of an underdog are they, really?

7.5 points, and that is one hell of a lot. They don't have to win. All they have to do is keep it close. When the computer says they'll win by 4, and they're getting 7.5.....

Well, you know.

B.H.N.

BHN-
i dont know if my opinion matters to you but if you are going to take any action all year i would take that line and run with it. GO FOR IT!!!!

Originally posted by BaseballHistoryNut
7.5 points, and that is one hell of a lot. They don't have to win. All they have to do is keep it close. When the computer says they'll win by 4, and they're getting 7.5.....

Well, you know.

B.H.N.

I mean, in your heart how much of an underdog are they? In other words, take the damn bet!

In a national championship game that's as hyped up as this one is you can bet that both teams will show up to play. The defense will be the difference in this game. Texas has more then enough speed on "D" to keep Reggie and Matt in check.

I'm not saying USC isn't going to put any points up on the Longhorns. But I think this game will show us the gap in skill levels between the PAC-10 and the Big 12. Yes, I personally think the Longhorns are the better team due to this fact. Seems everything I hear about in the sports media is how USC is one of the greatest teams of all time. I swear they wouldn't be getting that hype if they played in the Big 12 or Big 10.

I am a little worried about where this game is being played... There will be a noticeable home field advantage for the Trojans. But still, if I bet on sports I'd go for the Horns in a tight action packed game.

Defense wins national championships.

*my 2 cents*

[Edited on 12/29/05 by Lostsailor]

Texas plays their home games on grass, though, don't they?

(Of course, USC has looked like they played 3 or 4 of their games this year on Humboldt County grass....)

thats right Lostsailor, defense will be the difference. I also think that Texas needs to score on their first possesion and put the heat on USC. If they fall behind even their defense may not be enough to hold USC and come back.
We should all remember that the majority of these kids are young (22 or younger) and they are playing for a chance to cement their team as the best of all time. That is a lot of pressure for anyone. This is why it is vital for Texas to get out front, to pile on some more pressure.

But I think this game will show us the gap in skill levels between the PAC-10 and the Big 12. Yes, I personally think the Longhorns are the better team due to this fact.

Lostsailor, what about last year's championship game, USC vs. Oklahoma? That game actually had as much hype as this year's, don't forget...

That being said, I do feel that the Longhorns will win this thing. They are just a better overall team than the Trojans.

Dear All,

That same computer I mentioned puts a large, bright green star on teams it thinks one should bet on. As I said, check it out (for free) at scoresandodds.com (click on "matchup," which is next to every game, I believe). Unlike places which recommend a bet on every game, scoresandodds recommends very few games to bet--often only one on an NFL Sunday, or even zero. And they never recommend totals, I believe.

I'm not sure I saw more than one bowl game which they picked. If it was only one, guess which game it was? And guess whom they picked? Yup. TEXAS. They waited until the last few days to pick them, perhaps until they were satisfied there wouldn't be mass suspensions. But they've now officially picked Texas.

I'm not trying to talk anyone into betting on football--a pastime which cost me MANY, MANY thousands of dollars over the course of 1/4 century. But man, those computers base their picks on a lot of things, and most of us seem to think this will be a defensive game. If so, 7.5 points is a ton and Texas sure doesn't have to win for their bettors to win.

As I've said, I've lost up to $7,000 in one season before, and in fact did so in BOTH of my last two seasons. (I've also won thousands in a season before, but not THAT much.) (:flame So w.t.f. do I know?

Most of my big victories have been either: (1) on "middles," which certainly involve no foresight; or (2) desparation, week-end, massive bets on Monday Night Football, which are idiotic things to do and can really bury you, as they did me a couple of times.

But I won HUGE on that 1984 Orange Bowl because I thought Miami was 50-50 to beat the Sadistic Osborne outright, and they were getting 14. I feel the same way about this game, except I don't hate USC's coach and Texas is getting just over 1 TD, not 2.

Of course, now that I've posted my views all over the Internet, any betting I do will have to be through my friend at the Nevada border, lest I give Homeland Security a reason to.... (Well, ok, I won't go there. Y'all have been good about, and shown a lot of class by, avoiding such political subjects. I will return the favor.)

But it will be hard for me to talk myself into betting that game, even through a longtime friendly 3rd party. But IF my reading of federal criminal statutes and jurisdictional statutes satisfies me I have nothing to worry about, then that big, bright green star convinced me and I AM going to go for Texas... BIG.

Happy New Year to all

Originally posted by Gibbs Baby!!!
Lostsailor, what about last year's championship game, USC vs. Oklahoma? That game actually had as much hype as this year's, don't forget...

Yeah, you do have a point there Gibbs. But I still feel that if, in a hypothetical situation, they played a best out of three series. Oklahoma would have taken it. Plus, Texas is a much better team then Oklahoma was last year.

Originally posted by Lostsailor
Plus, Texas is a much better team then Oklahoma was last year.

I'm right there with you on that one. Let's hope they prove it on Wednesday.

BHN, you shoudl check out the "parent" site of this one, ATS, you can get into all kinds of politacal BS over there.

Watching the game right now. Texas got off to a shaky start but their defense looks tough. That 4th down try by the Trojans early in the game when they could have gotten three points will be the difference in this game I think. I hope my Longhorn victory prediction holds up. Just drank the best beer I've ever had in my life!!! A scotch ale from a micro brewery in Traverse City MI.

One pint and I feel great.:party-smiley-018:

well it's halftime and Texas is looking good, USC had the breaks going their way early but BIG MO has moved to the Longhorn bench..got to head off to work so i will have to wait till morning to see who is the national champ