Baseball: Pedro's ranking--A factor to consider?

Pedro gave up a two-out, bases-empty home run in the first inning of tonight's game. From the second through the sixth, he gave up two singles and one walk, but no more runs. He had nine strikeouts over the six innings.

Going into the bottom of the sixth, the Mets and Pirates were tied at 1-1, but by the time Pedro came to the plate, the score was 2-1, Mets. At that time, Pedro had thrown only 77 pitches and obviously was pitching lights out. Nonetheless, with a man on second and one out, they lifted Pedro for a pinch hitter, who proceeded to take a called third strike.

The leadoff hitter then proceeded to triple, making the score 3-1, but that is hardly the point. This is the point:

The Mets had a 2-1 lead. The man they had on the mound has, by FAR, the greatest Adjusted ERA in the history of baseball, and he had only thrown 77 pitches.

Now, I know Pedro won't be throwing 120 pitches in a game unless and until the Mets make the playoffs, but is his 35-year-old arm really so frail that he has to be limited to 77 pitches? And more to the point:

Even if he IS the greatest inning-for-inning pitcher of all time--which he very clearly is--doesn't a lot have to be subtracted off his ranking if he has to come out with a 2-1 lead after 6 innings, in a game where he's only thrown 77 pitches? W.T.F.???

What do the rest of you baseball fans think of this? Is his arm particularly sore right now? I'm sure he's been throwing more than 77 pitches in some of his games this season, hasn't he? That's one hell of a limitation on a starting pitcher, no matter who he is and no matter how well he can pitch for six innings. NOBODY has good long relievers.

BHN

Lol!

Well, S---!!!!

The reliever(s) in the 7th and 8th did the job just fine. Then came the Mets' much-vaunted, zillion-dollar closer, Billy Wagner. He WALKS the tying runs on base (Cardinal Sin #1), then after two are out, he gives up two singles to the outfield, to tie the game.

YO, DOOFUS!!! That's a win of eventually historical significance you just blew for Pedro Martinez! Is your one-pitch act perhaps a bit overrated?

I remember watching Wagner pitch the bottom of the ninth against Mark McCheat in St. Louis one day in 1998. The tying run was on first and there were two outs. Wagner, evidently thinking his hummer was touchable only by the deities, fired three of them right down the middle to McGwire. McGwire took furious swings at the first two, but missed. The third one, however, wound up where only McGwire hit them: in the upper deck of Busch Stadium, in about 1/2 second.

Way to go again, Bozo.

BHN

[Edited on 5/3/06 by BaseballHistoryNut]

Herein lies the problem with the NL not having a DH, great pitchers get the hook because it's a close game and they're up with runners ready to score. Now mind you i despise the DH but it also has it's advantages. This kind of problem will plague baseball until both leagues agree on one set of lineups.

But since they already had a 2-1 lead when Pedro's turn at the plate came, why would they not let him bat and go on pitching? Seventy-seven pitches cannot be his limit, can it? Isn't he still good for 90 to 100 pitches, at least?

BHN

I will say this: If he is only good for 77 pitches, and thus about 6 innings in an ordinary start, AND opponents know he can't throw too many balls, then it will be hard to deem him worthy of any more Cy Young Awards... no matter HOW great his Adjusted ERA's and traditional ERA's are.

Take Clemens, for instance. Clemens' career Adjusted ERA is "only" better than those of his peers by 43%, which is awesome, but pales next to Pedro's 66%. But really, I think I'd rather have a 43% guy like him or a 42% guy like Big Unit for 8 innings, as opposed to a 66% guy for only SIX innings.

And Pedro hasn't been a 66% or better guy since 2003, anyway. He posted Adjusted ERA's of 125 and 148, respectively, in 2004 and 2005. The 148, coincidentally, matches the best CAREER Adjusted ERA of any pitcher other than Pedro (Grove).

What do you other baseball fans think? Would you rather have a pitcher who is 66% better than his peers, but for only 77 pitches? Or would you prefer to have a pitcher who is "only" 42 (R. Johnson) or 43 (Clemens) percent better than his peers, but for EIGHT innings?

Considering how notoriously horrible long relievers are, and what kind of s--- you're likely to get in the 7th and 8th innings with the great six-inning pitcher, I think I might vote for the lower-rated, but longer-lasting, great pitchers. You won't get near as much for the first six innings, but you'll still get a great, great pitcher, and you'll have him for 2 more innings, instead of bums.

Yeah, tonight the bums came through and the "great" closer imploded in the ninth, losing first his control in walking the tying runs aboard, and then his dominance in giving up the tying hits with two outs. But in the long run, Billy Wagner is not going to be Pedro's undoing in games like this one. The seventh and eighth innings, however, very well may.

What do y'all say?

BHN

[Edited on 5/3/06 by BaseballHistoryNut]

I must agree that the Mets' move was ludicrous. Personally, I'm not a big fan of counting pitches. Whoever came up with the number 120 anyway? It's all relative, isn't it. While it is true that Pedro has had some problems in recent years with endurance, I highly doubt that his limit is 77 pitches. My belief is that if a starter is doing quality work, leave him in until he starts to falter or until a situation arises that requires a pinch hitter. That situation described did not seem to require a pinch hitter. I mean, they're up 2-1 in the sixth, and he's pitching very well. Why take him out?

Too often I have seen pitchers get taken out when they are on a tear. But the job can be done by the starters. In last year's ALCS, the White Sox pitchers had four complete games, I believe. And I will always remember Jack Morris's 10 innings pitched in Game 7 of the the World Series in 1991.

I just found a site which has Pedro's game-by-game log for this year. In his 5 previous starts, all of which led to victories for him, his respective pitch counts were 96, 85, 108, 108 and 108.

I have heard nothing about an arm injury, and have to believe I would have, unless they were sitting on the news real tightly. If he can throw 108 pitches, three times running, he quite likely could have thrown not only 8 innings, but even 9 last night.

W.T.F.?

B.H.N.