Baseball: Official Baseball MVP Thread

Now that the season is nearing it's end, it is time we discuss who the MVP candidates are, who will win them, who will lose them, and why. There are many candidates in each league, but I will only go through the top 3 in each league. I will first give ESPN's view on the player, and his likelyhood of winning the Award.

NL

Albert Pujols

ESPN's View

Rolling another outrageous year off his assembly line for a Cardinals team that has had to stuff everyone except the hot-dog vendors into the trainer's room. Top three in the league in all three Triple Crown categories -- plus runs, hits, slugging, on-base percentage, OPS, multi-hit games, total bases and extra-base hits. But his team wrapped up its division around Memorial Day. And only two of the last 40 MVPs (Bonds in '03, Ichiro in '01) have come from clubs that won their divisions by margins as large as the Cardinals' current lead (14 games).

My View

Pujols will always finish in the top 3 of MVP voting when he plays a full season. He has finished Second to Bonds every year he has been in the league. He puts up monstrous numbers, but he has one downfall... He has backup. The pitching there is great, as well as the other bats in the line-up. Pujols wasn't the most valuable player in the NL, for there was another who actually made a BIG difference in their team. He will finish second in the voting.

Derek Lee

ESPN's View

According to the stat gurus at Baseball Prospectus, no player on any team has had a better year, as measured by value over an average replacement player (VORP), than Lee. And that Triple Crown isn't out of the question, either -- since Lee still leads the league in hitting and is barely off the pace in homers and RBI. Oh, by the way, Lee also ranks No. 1 in hits, extra-base hits, slugging, on-base percentage, OPS and doubles. But as the Cubs' season gurgles down the drain, he'd probably have to win the Triple Crown to win an MVP election. Only three of the last 93 MVPs (A-Rod in 2003, Cal Ripken in 1991 and Mike Schmidt in 1986) came from teams that finished 20 games or more out of first place.

My View

Derek Lee obviously is a MVP candidate... if we only played half a season. Had Derek lee kept pace with his first-half production, he would be the top candidate. he has slowly dropped off the radar, as has the Cubs chances of making the playoffs. The only reason Lee will finish in the top 3 in voting, is because some fans out there fail to realize there is more to baseball than stats. He will finish 3rd in voting.

Andruw Jones

ESPN's View

It isn't true that everyone else around him in that Braves' lineup has been in the big leagues for about three weeks. But it seems like it. So as Jones steams toward 50 homers, with the Braves' playoff reservations still not guaranteed, we're sensing major MVP momentum in Andruw's neighborhood. Leads the league in homers and RBI, but Baseball Prospectus ranks him only ninth in VORP. Nevertheless, as one NL assistant GM put it, "When you think about where the Braves would be without Andruw, it's a lot worse off than the Cardinals would be without Albert Pujols."

My View

I will start off by saying I am as big Braves fan. Though it will be hard for you to believe me, this is completely un-bias. Andruw Jones is going to be MVP of the NL. Why? Because in spite of all the Braves have been through, with having a roster chock-full of Rookies, he's managed to single-handedly carry the Braves to the top of the NL East. He is closing in on 50 HR's, and has 108 RBI. He is the only reason why the Braves will continue their Divison title streak with their 14th. Expect Jones to easily capture the NL MVP Award.

AL

Alex Rodriguez

ESPN's View

Would an MVP award make him a true Yankee? We might find out. Statistically, nobody has had a better season than A-Rod -- a man leading the league in homers, slugging, OPS, total bases and VORP, and lurking just off the lead in batting, runs scored and on-base percentage. But we still hear his critics pointing out that his numbers with men in scoring position (.267, with just six homers) are eminently mediocre, and that Mariano Rivera is the Yankees' real MVP. Well, all we know is that this is a huge September for his franchise, so A-Rod has every chance to prove he's MVP-worthy (among other things).

My View

To begin, I rarely watch the American League, so I could care less who wins the AL MVP. A-Rod has already won an MVP in Texas when they finished last-place, so why not win one in NY with a playoff team? A-rod has had a monster year, passing many mile-stones. He is a highly probable winner, but only if... ONLY IF the Yankees make the playoffs. The Yankees are in trouble, and seem as though they won't be making the playoffs this year. For that, A-Rod will finish 2nd in the voting.

David Ortiz

ESPN's View

His team and his fans feed off him. He's leading the AL in RBI and extra-base hits. He's heating up (first in his league in RBI and runs scored in August). And those Red Sox will need all the Big Papi Mania he can ignite in September. But Ortiz faces the same problem this year that kept him from winning the last two MVP races (when he finished fourth and fifth): Too many attractive candidates on his own team.

My View

My views are almost exactly that of ESPN. I could include Manny Ramirez in this list, but I feel Big Papi has more of a Chance than Manny. Ortiz is a HR and RBI machine, and will be a big part of Boston's success till the end of the year. He won't win the award... but he will finish higher than he ever has before... at 3rd place.

Vladimir Guerrero

ESPN's View

It's sure been a bizarre year for the ever-dangerous Vlad: .351 in April, .224 in May, .443 in June, .208 in July, .348 in August. But if he can ever climb off that roller coaster, and if the Angels can just get Garret Anderson healthy and rolling to complement him, there's no reason to think the Vlad Man isn't just as capable of heavy-lifting his team into the postseason this year as he was last year (when he had a .371, 10-homer September). It tells you something that he was intentionally walked almost as many times in August (12) as he was all last season (14).

My View

Why is Vlad gonnawin the MVP award? Simply because he is more valuable to his team than any other player in the AL. He has been key player in the A's and Angels battle for the Division lead. He will have a better chance of winning if his team conquers the AL West, but even if they just take the Wild Card... He's sure to win his 2nd MVP Award.

MLB MVP's

Vladimir Guerrero, RF of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Andruw Jones, CF of the Atlanta Braves

I totally agree with you on everything you had to say, and i think also that without a doubt that Andruw Jones will take the MVP of the NL, but i see A-Rod winning the AL because the yankees would also be no where if not for the pitching of Randy Johnson, and the Bat of A-Rod. Thats all that i really dissagree with, but other than that i think that you are correct in your predictions, peace

NL

Albert Pujols
Here's why he won't win it, or at least SHOULDN'T win it. Yes, taking him out of the Cards lineup would be a huge blow. Yes, he'll hit 40+ homers, have 100+ RBIs and 100+ runs. But there are a lot of solid bats in that lineup. Plus, that pitching staff has not only been healthy all year, but they lead the majors with a 3.45 ERA and have 12 shutouts. The Cards would still be way ahead in the division without Pujols. That brings me to a very good point. It's not the BEST player award, it's the most VALUABLE player. Who means the most to his team. That said...

Derrek Lee
Yes the Cubs are way out of it. But there was a time when they were making a run. And that just happened to be when Derrek Lee was playing like God. It's no coincidence that, ever since he's cooled down, the Cubs are nothing. The Cubs go up and down as Derrek Lee goes up and down, and that is why he fits the definition of MVP more than Pujols does. However...

Andruw Jones
This isn't even close. He is the MVP. My dad says he isn't because of his batting average! Sigh. Oh father, even YOU have forgotten what "valuable" means. Unlike Pujols, Andruw Jones was carrying a team that had 2/5 of its rotation and its best RBI man on and off the DL. Andruw Jones was surrounded by the likes of Brian McCann, Kelly Johnson, Pete Orr, Ryan Langerhans, Jeff Franceour (rookie of the year), and Wilson Betemit. His 44 homers and 109 RBIs are way more valuable to the Braves than Pujols' numbers are to the Cardinals.

Sleeper pick: Carlos Lee

AL

Alex Rodriguez
He does fit the definition. The Yankees are horrid defensely and have had terrible pitching most of the year. The problem is Gary Sheffield... Hideki Matsui... Derek Jeter... Jorge Posada... Jason Giambi... etc. Get it? That lineup is stacked. Take one guy out and they're still capable of a ton of runs per game.

David Ortiz
Same as above, only replace all those Yankees names with Manny Ramirez... Johnny Damon... Jason Varitek... etc.

Vladimir Guerrero
Definitely the MVP. That lineup is far from stacked. Their pitching staff can be schizo at times. That's all I got. I'm getting lazier as I go down the page.

Sleeper Pick: Travis Hafner (but not really)

We need more posters like you around... most people post here and say... He'll win it... then never ever post here again. Things are really slow right here because many of the Moderators and regulars are busy with work and such. Hopefully you will stay around. When this site has everyone here... it's a great place to be.

I am a cardinal fan, but I don't think that Pujols should win. Even though I want him too. Andruw Jones should win it because the braves would be NOWHERE without him.

Jones isn't close to mvp. It's a 2 horse race between Pujols and DLee.

OPS

DLee 1.106
Pujols 1.044
AJones .951

Win Shares

DLee 32
Pujols 32
AJones 21

VORP (value over replacement player)

DLee 91.6
Pujols 84.5
AJones 57.5

Runs Created

DLee 133
Pujols 123
AJones 98

RC/27

DLee 10.61
Pujols 9.65
AJones 6.49

As you can see, Jones is far behind in Win Shares, VORP, Runs Created, RC/27, and OPS. He might get 2 homer Braves votes, but that's it.

And btw, Lee had a 1.000 OPS in August to Jones .961. It was Lees worst month of OPS, yet Jones has only beat Lee's worst month once (June). Pujols/Lee for mvp is a debate. AJones isn't.

I see where you're going with those. But I still feel the MVP should be chosen beyond stats. Andruw jones is also a Gold Glover... Arguably the best Defensive CF in the game, but probably second to Edmonds. Lee is also a good defensive player, but if you take him out of the line-up... the Cubs lose, put him in, the Cubs stil lose, but do win a tad bit more. had Lee continued his Firs-half tear... he'd be MVP without a doubt. i think Pujols is in the same house, but for another reason. take him out, the Cards still win... put him in, the Cards win still. Put Jones out... the Braves struggle some... Put him in... he hits a Walk-off HR. Jones has made more impact on his team than the other three. But I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the three win it.

i dont understand why you keep saying the braves would be nothing without andruw jones and not saying the same of the cardinals and albert pujols. this was most definitely the case last year when the cardinals had unbelievable seasons by pujols, rolen, sanders, edmonds, and walker but this year that hasnt been the case at all. the cardinals would be NOTHING without PUJOLS! he has provided ALL the offensive support in a year full of injuries just as bad or critical as the braves. the only person hitting .300 besides pujols is jason marquis! (lol thats kinda funny, hes hitting .351 believe it or not). he has had almost the exact case as jones this year in that they've lost key players and rookies have had to step up and provide the support..lets look at what rolen, sanders, edmonds, and walker have done THIS season..
(out of the possible 136 games)

rolen-56 games .235 avg 5 homeruns
sanders-78 games 44 rbi .281 avg
walker-84 games 42 rbi .274 avg
edmonds-118 so .270 avg (his yr actually hasnt been too bad though)

without pujols the cards would be fighting for the wild card/division like everyone else. pujols has led that team the entire year and without him there is no way they would be even close to where they are now.

I'm not saying Pujols isn't doing great things for his team, I'm just saying that Andruw's impact has been greater than Pujols. The Crads have the pitching the Braves don't have. Our bullpen is horrendous. Andruw is the one tht makes the difference between a loss for the braves, and an out. If Andruw doesn't get it, then Pujols definately deserves it. It's a two-man race between Pujols and Jones as of now.

Keep in mind the criteria for mvp is value. It mentions nothing of # of wins, place in standings, post season. You seem to be penalizing Pujols for being on a good team, and Lee for being on a bad, while Jones is on the team most in hunt. If you look at the numbers, Jones hasn't created as much. Win Shares btw include defense.

Reasons why Jones isn't mvp.

April Braves 14-9 Jones .712 ops 12 rbis
May Braves 14-13 Jones .968 ops 18 rbis
June Braves 14-13 Jones 1.052 ops 26 rbis
July Braves 18-8 Jones . 922 ops 23 rbis
August Braves 14-14 Jones .959 ops 29 rbis

Jones 3 best months (August/May/June), Braves go 42-40. Jones worst 2 months (April/July), Braves go 32-17.

Pujols 34 win shares
Lee 33 win shares
Jones 22 win shares

Let's look at team difference.

Giles 24 ws
Furcal 23 ws
Jones 22 ws
Smoltz 17 ws
Chipper 17 ws

Contrary to Jones being a one man show, it's far from true.

Runs Created

Lee 138
Pujols 135
Jones 104

Cubs have 631 runs, (138 created by Lee) = 21.87%
Cards have scored 707 runs, (135 created by Pujols) = 19.09%
Braves have scored 674 runs, (104 created by Jones) = 15.43%

Jones in situations

no one on 248 abs 1.027 ops
runners on 268 abs .868 ops
risp 167 abs .745 ops .222 avg

Jones is so far from Lee/Pujols, it's not even close. I feel for Lee/Pujols, if even one writer wastes a 1st vote on Jones.