Is H5N1 Bird Flu a Bioweapon that Targeted Asia's Economy?

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I routinely dismissed any suggestion on ATS that H5N1 bird flu is a bioweapon - because H5N1 and other new diseases with pandemic potential are predictable and natural consequences of modern medical, industrial and agricultural practices. At most, I acknowledged the possibility that an agent originally released in WWI spread and mutated over time.

Now, I find myself questioning that position, for the following reasons:

1. The pandemic started in China and remains centered in Asia.

2. Reports say H5N1 bird flu emerged from China's industrial poultry farms.

3. Scientists recognize that H5N1 is spread via contaminated feed.

4. Migratory birds are NOT playing a major role in H5N1's spread yet, indicating that other vectors are more critical, such as contaminated feed.

5. Agricultural bioweapons target a nation's food supply and economy, not its army.

6. H5N1 bird flu is a "perfect" agricultural bioweapon - capable of decimating a nation's economy - and its pattern of spread and evolution indicates it may be exactly that.


Background:

2000: Biological Terrorism Targeted at Agriculture (pdf)

The modern agricultural farm ...is a huge operation with often several hundred thousand animals in one location. ...This concentration of animals, combined with the communicability of livestock diseases, suggests that a handful of attacks could cause widespread devastation to an ...economy. ...Another factor that facilitates the spread of an animal disease is that animals and animal products are often moved to many locations in a short period of time.

The Ability of Attacks to Cause Economic Harm

Agricultural pandemics can lead to economic losses of immense proportions. ...The 1997 FMDv outbreak in Taiwan decimated the country's pork industry, causing $7 billion in dmage. The well-publicized outbreak of mad-cow disease in Great Britain cost the country $4.2 billion in depopulation costs alone.

One of the most devastating effects of even a small-scale outbreak is trade embargoes...

H5N1 bird flu now is epidemic in Asia. The poultry industries - and national economies - in affected countries already have suffered inestimable losses. Many individual farmers and national industries will not recover.

H5N1 bird flu already has succeeded as a bioweapon. The H5N1 bird flu epidemic in Asia already has:

1. Compromised the area's economic stability;

2. Obstructed efforts to establish an Asia-Pacific free trade area under APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation); and thus,

3. Neutralized competition from APEC with the European and North American Free Trade areas; and

4. Destroyed Indonesia, a predominately Muslim nation.


BTW, China was talking trade deals with Venezuela a couple of years ago. Wonder what happened with the developing China/Asia/South American trade bloc?

Conclusion: It is distinctly possible that H5N1 bird flu was developed as an agricultural bioweapon, and disseminated in China to neutralize that nation as an economic power, and to prevent APEC from establishing an Asia-Pacific trade union with ties to South American countries.


Any thoughts, comments, or criticism? More information?



PS. My apologies to members with whom I disagreed about this in the past. Eating my own feathers as we speak.


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Accepting that it's all about economic power, and trade...

What's playing out here, or floundering? Anyone have any idea?

A wrestling match between the US and China for APEC and/or the FTAAP and ADOC?

Analysts suggest APEC is becoming less important

This year's APEC leaders meeting - with representatives from 21 member economies, along with businesspeople, government officials and reporters - has thrust quiet Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam, into the world spotlight. ...But irrespective of the number and rank of people who turned up, the fact is that the importance of APEC is diminishing. ...According to a survey of 370 regional opinion leaders released this week by the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC), an advisory group to APEC, concern about the viability of APEC is widespread. ...Only 42 percent of respondents agreed with the statement "APEC is as important today as it was in 1989," while a majority of respondents identified "weak commitment from member economies" and "lack of focus" as key challenges facing the regional forum. ...The increase in the number of issues discussed at APEC meetings - everything from from bird flu to the North Korean nuclear crisis - have distracted meetings from the main focus of APEC, which originally was trade liberalization and facilitation, Wu said.

The rise of several other regional organizations in Asia may eclipse APEC, especially ASEAN, with China in tow, or Japan's new East Asia Summit, Wu said. ...In theory, integrated trade partners are more likely to be political allies, and both ASEAN and the East Asia Summit, which exclude Taiwan, are the focus of a push to establish a regional common market, Wu said. ...The US will not sit on its hands while this happens. The US pushed its own regional agenda during this year's APEC meeting - a new APEC-wide free trade zone or Free-Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP).

Despite the fact that the US said it was promoting the idea to resolve the current WTO impasse, there has been speculation that China was behind the recent move to reintroduce the plan. ...One major initiative the nation has contributed to APEC is the APEC Digital Opportunity Center (ADOC). Established in 2003, ADOC aims to help eliminate the digital divide among member economies by setting up IT centers in Vietnam, Chile, Peru, the Philippines, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea.

...Was H5N1 bird flu released as a bioweapon to slow China's rise as an economic power on the world stage?

It ceartainly is a possibility. I never thought of it, but given the easy accessibility and low-tech manufactoring process in combination with no-risk handeling, I would say WHY NOT.

I've not been deep into the issue like you, but I've seen it from a consumers view, so to speak in a hotspot and wondered about a few things myself, so I do think you're on to something,Sofi.

One thing I've wondered about from the very beginning, given - let's say tendency - the locals of SE Asia have for deceiving to make reality look at its best, is how will they handle this. A good rule of behavior here, is rather tell a lie than make anybody feel bad. Taking the enourmous econmic interests at play, combined with their nature, makes it impossible to believe they would reveal "nothing but the truth". As far they're forced, it will NEVER be the whole truth.

I've used the afternoon looking at statistics about the bird flu, and one thing so very striking is the distribution of the red spots over Southern China, SE Asia and Indonesia, overall displaying a uniformity with a concentration in Northern Vietnam and the neigbouring Chinese provinces, BUT SO VERY STRIKING . . ...squeezed in between the worst hit and third worst hit country, Vietnam and Thailand, lies Laos without a single outbreak!!!

To the other side is Myamar, Burma with the same status. Impossible to believe they not should be hit. Also suspicious, though more reliable - taken their degree of development and healthcare structure in consideration - is Malaysia. North - South, from Mongolia to Papau, it's the only country who has avoided the bird flu. Very suspicious indeed.

For Laos and Myamar the data are just totally and completely unreliable, their social and economic structure in mind, impossible for them not to be affected at all. Most unbelievable, when you think about it, is no authority has given any alarm concerning such an anomaly.

For sure there is a lot of cover-ups in reporting for ALL the countries involved. Not even in Thailand I suspect every case to be corectly reported. I remember the first case involving death, fluid samples was to be send to the US for testing, and they were delayed and handled in a way, that a unequivocal answer was unobtainable.

What is most peculiar is, for three years now we have been told that it was a matter of time before the strain would have developed into a human to human transmitting one. As far as I can see it's yet to happen. Despite more than a dozen subtybes have been identified. Also, here in Thailand chickens walk free like they mostly do in traditional rural surroundings. But I've never seen a live case or a sick chicken for that matter.

When outbreaks occur it's always in big concentrated, isolated population of industrial poultry. The more protected, the more detached from the enviroment as a whole the more vulnerable, I think.

Maybe it IS nature fighting back on those not fit, but there's no doubt there are corporate as well as government interests - not to mention terrorists - out there willing to give a helping hand.

Your scenario is very likely Sofi, the degree to how dirty tricks can get, we have no idea. Dig on, I would like to see some evidence to support the likeliness.

Originally posted by khunmoon
It ceartainly is a possibility.

Your scenario is very likely Sofi, the degree to how dirty tricks can get, we have no idea. Dig on, I would like to see some evidence to support the likeliness.

There won't be any evidence until all sequences are analyzed.

And oddly, no one, including the USA is releasing all their samples.

Soficrow you seem a person that has a lot of points but little real information.
If your just reading and posting what you find then I can understand your real lack of real information. You stated H5N1 emerged from china but it first emerged in Scotland in 1959 in a mallard duck?
Your statement that Scientists recognize that H5N1 is spread via contaminated feed is a false assumption even if true you make one feel it is the only thing that is causing the disease to infect poultry. Migratory birds and movements of chickens are the cause of a lot of H5 being moved from region to region, and one must understand that dust storms have the ability to move bacteria and viruses great distances.(type in dust clouds and viruses or Gobi desert and viruses).

www.cdc.gov...[ex/]

Can h5n1 be a good agri weapon its true but its also a mutual destruction bug, it will infect all things in the world before it becomes tamed by our immune systems and the animals around the world. I agree it is epidemic around the world in certain areas, you also state the pandemic started in china and remains in the aisa area, I disagree with that because it is walking all over the world and turkey had a lot of deaths only after the movement of of birds through europe with the prediction by Niman holding true.
You stated after careful study you observed a lot of red dots over central asia pinpointings outbreaks of H5. In china and many areas they grow fowl many ways, some pretty modern and others just like grand maw did but with many doing so in the kitchen or just outside the door. Vietnam was moving chickens across the border by any means possible to sell them before the government destroyed the bird or birds. This happens in the poor countries due to the lose of the persons sole means if income if not a great portion of it. Even though the countries have a ban of bird movements and sells without teting. People in africa were digging up dead fowl and eating it or finding great nbr of fowl or other animals dead in the woods andd consuming it, because of the great hunger they experience.


I think your posting good ideas but some are not correct, however chew on this.
six months before the outbread at quanhi the chinese was engaged in battles with chinese muslims in the mountains and deserts of Gobi, also in Gobi there was a Germ warfare station and it was used to test and develop military grade weapons from bacteria and viruses just like other countries. We find there was eight chinese blogers posting about a attack in areas of this station and after we have the H5N1
moving from fowl to humans and other animals, remember we had the swine deaths and people dieing from just touching the pigs with the so called disease.
I agree it can be a terrorist weapon, I agree that terrorists probably have thought
just like you about how to use it. China is a emerging great nation but still a very heavy polluter whether in industry or in agriculture. If 50% of farmers do things the olde fashion way such as keeping chickens or ducks in the house and feeding chicken poop to carp placed in rice patties to eat weeds then you probably have 100 million doing it the bad way even without counting open markets in modern cities or train movements of chickens many possibilities.

Originally posted by mondegreen

Soficrow you seem a person that has a lot of points but little real information.

A few of my background files posted here.

If your just reading and posting what you find then I can understand your real lack of real information. You stated H5N1 emerged from china but it first emerged in Scotland in 1959 in a mallard duck?

I have been publicizing the 1959-Scotland outbreak for some time. Human infection is more recent - the first reported outbreak was in Hong Kong, 1997, linked to China.

Your statement that Scientists recognize that H5N1 is spread via contaminated feed is a false assumption

Statement based on quotes, with links posted elsewhere ie here. Not an assumption.

even if true you make one feel it is the only thing that is causing the disease to infect poultry.

Sorry - I won't take responsibility for yours or anyone's feelings.

As you may be aware - bird flu is spread via bodily fluids as well as the respiratory route, which means numerous vectors.

Industry is greatly implicated.

You stated after careful study you observed a lot of red dots over central asia pinpointings outbreaks of H5.

Erm. I did not.

You appear to be confusing me with another poster.




Thanks, and sorry. I have posted a lot on bird flu, and forget what references I've used where.

Informative link, mondegreen, but it doesn't contain this information:

six months before the outbread at quanhi the chinese was engaged in battles with chinese muslims in the mountains and deserts of Gobi, also in Gobi there was a Germ warfare station and it was used to test and develop military grade weapons from bacteria and viruses just like other countries. We find there was eight chinese blogers posting about a attack in areas of this station and after we have the H5N1 moving from fowl to humans and other animals, remember we had the swine deaths and people dieing from just touching the pigs with the so called disease.

Where do you have it from? It's very interesting with the chinese bloggers reporting. Guess their blogs are be removed by now, but do you have any links for their content or that "the chinese was engaged in battles with chinese muslims in the mountains and deserts of Gobi"?

If we're gonna make Sofi's assumption more than a hypothesis, every stone must be turned. I'm not rejecting the possibility. To prove it true would be impossible, I think, but to turn it into a likely assumption could be done - if there's something about it.

So let me ask you Sofi, on what do you build your assumption? Is it the patternless pattern it's spreading by, that the rules of phathology doesn't apply after the book or is merely a hunch?
First today I saw and skimmed your impressive thread on Spin and Counterspin on bird flu. I didn't take the time to get into many of the links, but with such a comprehensive research you must have some ideas, other than the fodder. It's an incredible work you have done.

I think we should look at the pattern it was reported by and at the context those reports appear in. As I've already given hints for Thailand, where it was done in an irregular an panic way, first by denial, then probably by deliberate misinformations. Now they hardly report anymore in local media.

Also an understanding of human behaviour, the missing logics of anticipation, the screwed mechanisms of acting and counteracting (spin and counterspin), should be taken in consideration predicting what has happened and what might happen.

Yesterday I found a deep study on the subject of predicting human behaviour. It's very academic and done as an assessment on bioterrorism, but none the less an interessting read on psychlogy.
I think it could be useful. After all, the minds of terrorists and clandestine goverment or corporate agents don't work that different.

Here's the link & a snippet.

The sudden appearance of a new pathogen or the emergence of a terrorist group with completely novel characteristics are two examples of outlier (unpredicted and atypical) events that can have devastating consequences. One general strategy for dealing with such events is to develop flexible response plans that can adapt to a wide spectrum of threats, even those that are quite different from what we might expect.

Predicting human behaviour
The obstacles to threat anticipation mentioned above apply to all events, whether intentional or 'naturally' occurring. There are, however, several aspects of intentional acts by human beings that make prediction especially difficult and that come into play in any consideration of bioterrorism. First, human threats are even more dynamic than evolutionary factors, in that human beings can adapt their behaviour instantaneously, can strategise to avoid defences and can concentrate their efforts on vulnerabilities.
Second, human beings display an exquisite diversity of action rarely observed in the natural world, with innovation a common occurrence amongst human adversaries. Lastly, while many natural processes are quite well understood and at least relatively well defined, the study of human mental processes is in many ways still very primitive, with few well-defined features and hardly any predictive tools with general application. The extreme case of extremist behaviour General difficulties in predicting human behaviour are exacerbated in the case of extremists such as terrorists, who are particularly wily and adaptive and often have obscure motivations for action. The most obvious (and serious) complication stems from the fact that terrorists and many other dangerous actors, by their very nature, operate clandestinely, thus making proactive identification and data collection especially difficult for the threat assessor.

Untangling the threads
It may appear that, with apparent trends that may or may not be indicative of future threats and the possibility of unforeseen factors that we do not or even cannot discern, we are left on even less solid ground than we were at the beginning of this paper. In fact, following Confucius' dictum that 'real knowledge is to know the extent of one?s ignorance', we are now far better equipped to understand the uncertainties of the future and incorporate them into our decision making. In this vein, the following recommendations are offered as high-level approaches for dealing with future biological threats, including those with animal origins.

Do not ignore current trends, but approach them judiciously
Despite the caveats about relying on extrapolations of past and current events, these can at least provide a baseline from which to explore future threats. Many of the trends pertaining to biological disasters carry with them significant probabilities of continuing and are thus important, so long as we do not allow our thinking to be constrained by existing patterns. Paying attention to current trends, while remaining sensitive to outlying possibilities and non-linear dynamics, is thus a prudent strategy.

Originally posted by khunmoon

So let me ask you Sofi, on what do you build your assumption?

...I think we should look at the pattern it was reported by and at the context those reports appear in. As I've already given hints for Thailand, where it was done in an irregular an panic way, first by denial, then probably by deliberate misinformations. Now they hardly report anymore in local media.

My response to the idea that bird flu is a bioweapon always has been an unequivocal NO. My analysis always has been that bird flu mutated, adapted and evolved naturally - over the past 100 years, from a purposeful or accidental contamination of WWI vaccines.

Now - I recognise bird flu has acted in Asia exactly as a successful agricultural bioweapon would do.

So I am backtracking - apologising - and bowing to those who have been saying it all along:

H5N1 bird flu might be a bioweapon.


The main evidence I see is the effect of the Asian bird flu epidemics - poultry industries are critical to most Asian economies, and they have been decimated - the Asia-Pacific region was well on the way to developing a trade bloc independent of US and WTO, with ties to South America, but the epidemics obstructed forward movement.

Records state clearly that H5N1 was used for experiments in a corporate lab in Scotland, after its discovery in 1959. However, there is no information available about the nature of those experiments. And even if it were proved that a bioweapon strain was created, authorities could always claim samples escaped, but were not purposefully released.

So you're right - we need to analyse the pattern of the Asian outbreaks to move forward here.


Thanks.


PS. My apologies, but I have a flu and I'm practically braindead, subject to brain burps and other stupidities. Don't want to have sucked you in here just to leave you hanging, but fyi - I am not reliable right now.


PPS. Thanks for that link and quote - need to get back to it later when I can focus properly.


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