Wild Weather Update

Sofi, I'm on ATS because of you.
Accepted ...and I still consider you the expert.

Origianally posted by soficrow
But the floods, mudslides and weather are NOT "Acts of God," are they?

This intro I could write a book on. Just let me say, the causes can be found in both politics and weather.

It's a rather repressive country I stay, so talk against the mountain aren't always good for your health.

This much I can say, a late despot, recently ousted are partly to blame. He mesmerized this country by his style and lies.

His star was made in the the telecom bizz and he first impressed the establishment in the 80's, selling IBM mainframes to the government. Earned him the sole concession on satellite com on which he made his billion fortune - that paved his way into politics.

He soon won the admiration of the old money; they saw a guy who really knew how to get the most out of it. Though incredible wealth is hold by the few in this country, you can never get enough.

Put in a position with complete control over the police and great parts of the military (the coup was staged by the airforce) he rode into office and introduced a CEO style of government. He really meant business and everybody adored him.

Except for the old king maybe, whom I consider the only person of true moral values in this Buddhist kingdom. He only makes comments to the lives of his subjects twice a year. When the late despot was at the top of his popularity, the king said concerning the CEO style:
"You can't know if it's Enron he has as model".

Greed, too much of it and too obvious, made him fall. But he managed to rip off a good deal of the country. Illegal logging of precious timber on the northern slopes was just a small part of that.
There you got a reason for the mudslides.

As for the floodings the king has given a plausibel cause that can be classed with the ousted government. He claims the rainfall not to be exceptionel, but the severe consequences he attributes to neglect in management of the traditional flood prevnting systems.

I believe it to be very true. No money in maintenance of dikes of mud and twigs.

That his 6 years reign was characterized by droughts with the paddies drying out made maintenance of no sense anyway. As a substitued dairy cattle was given by the authorities to graze off the rest of the foliage. Against delivering the milk to assigned firms of course.

The irony of the ousted rule was it was supported by the poorest, most uneducated. Sure, by technically terms it was a democracy - at least in the electoral process.

The almost biblical aspect comes with the rain pouring down literally by the minute he was gone.

P.S.>THE DESPOT DISCUSSED still controls the tele bizz (like the connection I have here typing), and I suspect he - God forbid it - might make a return. If so it'll be revengeful. Therefore I deliberately avoid keywords. Anyone who wanna discuss this subject please do so. Not paranoia, but reality.

I remember a couple of years back someone used to do this on Godlikeproductions - producing a list of extreme weather events in order to create the impression that something untoward was going on.

Trouble is, you could produce a similar list from 10 years ago or 100 years ago (except we doesn't have news coverage the same then and obviously no internet reports).

The weather is never the same 2 years running. Over a number of years you may howver be able to discern a new trend.

btw there could be some severe Atlantic storms crossing into France and possible even through into the Mediterranean later next week - unusual. But not unprecedented.

Found a link that gives satellite views of the extent of the floodings in Thailand.
This one gives a view of the area north of Bangkok, dated 25th of October.
earthobservatory.nasa.gov...

The page has links to earlier views of other parts of Thailand as well.

Here's the link to the satellite image provider, MODIS Rapid Respons, of Indochina same date. Displays a lot of options for viewing.
rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov.../2006298

Sofi, I think this link may provide views of the Gulf Stream as well. Haven't checked, but a handful of imgs of Indochina. As far as I can tell it covers the entire globe on a daily basis.
[edit to add]Sorry to say, it only monitors land and near coastal waters (no thermo-graphics). The mainpage rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov... tells.
...exalted again Extensive page though I search on.

Note for the Indochina imgs. First now I see it's much worse in Cambodia, half of the country looks flooded. THAT we here nothing about in Thailand - and it's less than a hundred miles across the hills from where I stay.



[edit on 18-11-2006 by khunmoon]

Originally posted by Essan
I
The weather is never the same 2 years running. Over a number of years you may howver be able to discern a new trend.

Exactly.

And as you know, that trend has been established, and linked to the slowing of the North Atlantic Current and destabilization of the Ocean Conveyor.


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Originally posted by soficrow


And as you know, that trend has been established, and linked to the slowing of the North Atlantic Current and destabilization of the Ocean Conveyor.

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Well actually, I know it hasn't - even though there are signs of a weaker NAD (with less deep water production etc) there are no indications whatsoever that it's having any effect on anyone's weather

There are suggestions that global warming is leading to more frequent severe weather events (as models predict). But even that is disputed.

IMO it's simply a case of more people being aware of natural variability for the first time. Even 15 years ago we wouldn't have been aware of even half the severe weather events we now hear about - largely thanks to the internet.

Seems to me weather extremes varying from one year to the next or new records is not unusual.
It's when weather conditions change for the worse that effect human life -- outside the season it could be expected.

When there is no record to break type stuff as it's a first. That's what happened here. Sort of like (extreme example) not being prepared for a snow storm in August. People just aren't expecting it and until it happens would never expect to expect the 'unheard of'.

Dallas

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Essan, Dallas - Are you guys living in a bubble?

FYI - Climate change is happening. There is no doubt. Controversy exists regarding mankind's role in the process, but the reality of climate change and disrupted weather patterns is not in question.

Here's a quick and dirty overview.

Time to act on global warming

At best, it is no longer possible to prevent some damage to the world's climate and weather patterns; at worst, greenhouse gas pollution could induce a change in global temperatures so dramatic it would rival the last ice age, a British report on climate change says.

In the world's most important analysis of the phenomenon, Sir Nicholas Stern, the former chief economist of the World Bank, has warned that the scientific evidence is overwhelming that rising greenhouse gas emissions pose a serious threat that requires an urgent global response.

In the detailed 700-page economic analysis - commissioned by the British Treasury and published yesterday - Sir Nicholas supports the Kyoto Protocol on climate change, calls for carbon emissions trading, greater co-operation between countries on low carbon technologies, and immediate action to reduce deforestation. He says the costs of not taking action far outweigh those of doing nothing.

***

Rupert Murdoch changes mind on global warming

Tokyo, Nov 06: Conservative media mogul Rupert Murdoch said on Monday he has had a change of heart on climate change and now believes global action is needed -- although not in the form of the US-opposed Kyoto Protocol.

Murdoch -- whose powerful News Corp empire includes Britain's The Sun tabloid newspaper and The Times -- called for a new treaty that is acceptable to all countries and brings in emerging economies.

..."I have to admit that, until recently, I was somewhat wary of the warming debate. I believe it is now our responsibility to take the lead on this issue," Murdoch told a conference in Tokyo.

***

Diseases Appear on Rise With Temperature

A warmer world already seems to be producing a sicker world, health experts reported Tuesday, citing surges in Kenya, China and Europe of such diseases as malaria, heart ailments and dengue fever.

"Climate affects some of the most important diseases afflicting the world," said Diarmid Campbell (nyse: CPB - news - people )-Lendrum of the World Health Organization. "The impacts may already be significant."

Kristie L. Ebi, an American public health consultant for the agency, warned "climate change could overwhelm public health services."

***

Study: Species extinctions are increasing

AUSTIN, Texas, Nov. 14 (UPI) -- A U.S. scientist says global warming has already caused extinctions in the most sensitive habitats and will continue to cause more extinctions.

The findings by University of Texas-Austin biologist Camille Parmesan's synthesis also show species are not evolving fast enough to prevent extinction.

"This is absolutely the most comprehensive synthesis of the impact of climate change on species to date," said Parmesan, associate professor of integrative biology. "Earlier syntheses were hampered from drawing broad conclusions by the relative lack of studies. Because there are now so many papers on this subject, we can start pulling together some patterns that we weren't able to before."

***

...there is the problem of global climate change. Often the phrase used for this is “global warming,” which implies only the fact that the world’s average temperature will be increasing by a couple of degrees or more over the next few decades. The much greater problem for farmers is destabilization of weather patterns. We face not just a warmer climate, but climate chaos: droughts, floods, and stronger storms in general (hurricanes, cyclones, tornadoes, hail storms)—in short, unpredictable weather of all kinds. Farmers depend on relatively consistent seasonal patterns of rain and sun, cold and heat; a climate shift can spell the end of farmers’ ability to grow a crop in a given region, and even a single freak storm can destroy an entire year’s production. Given the fact that modern American agriculture has become highly centralized due to cheap transport and economies of scale (almost the entire national spinach crop, for example, comes from a single valley in California), the damage from that freak storm is today potentially continental or even global in scale. We have embarked on a century in which, increasingly, freakish weather is normal.

Originally posted by soficrow



?!?

I already do more research for my stories than anyone else who posts here.

The above notwithstanding, because it's horribly generalistic as well as inaccurate, The ThermoHaline Oscillation most likely is the root cause of the "wild weather" patterns that are being felt worldwide. I agree.

What I can't bring myself to agree with is that in ANY fashion it is man-made change (not that I'm alluding that you or anyone here had implied it was), but a natural cycle. Scientists can argue all they want till they're blue and tired yet none of them know for CERTAIN because they weren't here, exactly if or if not the cyclic process will just happen and with relative geochronological swiftness.

However, Sofi, I would like to know exactly where it is you garner your information? If they are media only sites (of which I consider NOAA to be as much media as anyone else with some exceptions) then I would have to say that your ability to corroborate factual data with events is only as reliable as the source you use. I dont mean to say this in a mean or judgemental way, only in a matter-of-fact manner. The main reason I ask you this is because I truly believe that "doing research" for a story and "doing research as well as performing the calculations necessary showing trends, showing means, showing averages and corroborating research with fact" are 2 entirely different animals, and tends to separate those who are looking for anything at all in print so long as they can see their name attached to it from those who are credible.

AB1

More than above average temperatures reported in North America.

Vote Gore 2008.

Vote Gore 2008.

Originally posted by alphabetaone

Originally posted by soficrow

?!?

I already do more research for my stories than anyone else who posts here.

The above notwithstanding, because it's horribly generalistic as well as inaccurate

As it happens, that was an uncharacteristically beachy statement on my part - resulting from a misunderstanding. The other person involved and I already have apologized about it.

Beachyness notwithstanding, the statement is generally accurate, with respect to ATSNN. Most news submissions reference one source article/point, while I use a braod range - more the result of my style and personal inclinations than anything else, but certainly reflective of the time I donate.

However, Sofi, I would like to know exactly where it is you garner your information?

Use the links - they lead to actual sources. ...I also use the US National Institutes of Health database a lot, but don't usually reference it.

In this case, I read a post here about wild weather in Australia and within the hour caught a news special about wild weather across North America. So I went looking for evidence of global weird weather and found it.

If they are media only sites (of which I consider NOAA to be as much media as anyone else with some exceptions) then I would have to say that your ability to corroborate factual data with events is only as reliable as the source you use. I dont mean to say this in a mean or judgemental way, only in a matter-of-fact manner. The main reason I ask you this is because I truly believe that "doing research" for a story and "doing research as well as performing the calculations necessary showing trends, showing means, showing averages and corroborating research with fact" are 2 entirely different animals, and tends to separate those who are looking for anything at all in print so long as they can see their name attached to it from those who are credible.

1. sofi crow is not my real name, so I'm not benefitting personally by posting here.

2. You'd best take the credibility issue up with the 3 Amigos - and explain to them that ATS is built on a false philosophical foundation, from your perspective.

3. From my perspective, ATS works because various people put their knowledge, observations, experience and information in the same pot - and as threads grow, so does the "paper."

Of course, this only works when people actually share information, cite their sources - and don't waste bandwidth on spurious, if somewhat subtle, personal attacks.

.

Another great link - a free online book from the National Academies Press:

Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises (2002)
Ocean Studies Board (OSB)
Polar Research Board (PRB)
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC)

Executive Summary

Recent scientific evidence shows that major and widespread climate changes have occurred with startling speed. For example, roughly half the north Atlantic warming since the last ice age was achieved in only a decade, and it was accompanied by significant climatic changes across most of the globe. Similar events, including local warmings as large as 16°C, occurred repeatedly during the slide into and climb out of the last ice age. Human civilizations arose after those extreme, global ice-age climate jumps. Severe droughts and other regional climate events during the current warm period have shown similar tendencies of abrupt onset and great persistence, often with adverse effects on societies.

Abrupt climate changes were especially common when the climate system was being forced to change most rapidly. Thus, greenhouse warming and other human alterations of the earth system may increase the possibility of large, abrupt, and unwelcome regional or global climatic events. The abrupt changes of the past are not fully explained yet, and climate models typically underestimate the size, speed, and extent of those changes. Hence, future abrupt changes cannot be predicted with confidence, and climate surprises are to be expected.

The new paradigm of an abruptly changing climatic system has been well established by research over the last decade, but this new thinking is little known and scarcely appreciated in the wider community of natural and social scientists and policy-makers. At present, there is no plan for improving our understanding of the issue, no research priorities have been identified, and no policy-making body is addressing the many concerns raised by the potential for abrupt climate change. Given these gaps, the US Global Change Research Program asked the National Research Council to establish the Committee on Abrupt Climate Change and charged the group to describe the current state of knowledge in the field and recommend ways to fill in the knowledge gaps.

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Originally posted by khunmoon

Found a link that gives satellite views of the extent of the floodings in Thailand.
This one gives a view of the area north of Bangkok, dated 25th of October.
earthobservatory.nasa.gov...

...

Note for the Indochina imgs. First now I see it's much worse in Cambodia, half of the country looks flooded. THAT we here nothing about in Thailand - and it's less than a hundred miles across the hills from where I stay.

Thanks khunmoon.

Once you alerted me about the flooding, I realized I 'd been seeing a lot of coverage with reference to the bird flu epidemic in Asia.

Authorities fear that when flood waters recede, bird flu contamination will be left behind.

...I've seen several articles like this over the past while:

Thailand To Disinfect Poultry Farms In Effort To Prevent Bird Flu

Thailand's central government has ordered all provincial livestock authorities to disinfect poultry farms in an effort to prevent outbreaks of bird flu which have devastated the poultry industry in recent years, a government official said Sunday. ...after recent floods in the central provinces authorities decided to order all farms be disinfected, director- general of the Department of Livestock Development Yukol Limlamthong said.

Farms have been ordered to disinfect as the flood waters recede, he said.

Thailand and the governments of its neighbouring countries, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Myanmar (Burma) and Malaysia also recently agreed to work together to prevent possible outbreaks, Yukol said.

Just another link in the chain...


Climate Change Could Spread Plague: Scientists

[edit on 19-11-2006 by soficrow]

Originally posted by soficrow
Authorities fear that when flood waters recede, b# flu contamination will be left behind.

They better do so ...or be planning some hard cover-up, which is the normal way of dealing with crises in this country.

The story in brief about the b# flu here broke in the fall of 2003, when mass death was reported in poultry populations. However the government denied anything wrong, that it was a normal flu, despite analysizes carried out by individual bodies showed different. The dispute went that far those postulating otherwise was threatened with lawsuits for harming the export.

As part of the story, should be told that the Minister of agriculture at the time is the biggest poultry farmer in the country. (*note* all morning I've tried googling his name in various combinations with flu and government, but NOTHING comes up. He's a big general too, I should add).

In early 2004 when the cover broke, the whole cabinet went on public television and ate various dishes of chicken in an attempt to somehow redicule the seriousness around the issue.

For your research sofi, I would like to tell about the common practise of raising chickens in SE Asia, as I'm not sure you might be aware of it.

It is done in a duo culture, you give one input and gets two crops. In practise it is like this:

The chicken shacks are build over ponds, their droppings pass through the splitted floor onto the water, where carps nourish on whatever is left in them.

It might sound ecological sound, but whether it is hyginic, I'm not sure. Aesthetic it doesn't seem to us.

I'm not in a posistion to evaluate the possible health risk by the procedure. Do the virus live through the digestive organs of the chicken?

But I neither eat their farmed fish or their chickens anymore.

Originally posted by NumberCruncher...Prepare yourself...

Um, you could try joining my huge and rapidly growing thread on just how to go about prepartions, but you will need to wait a while for enough interest to build before you will have any company. Seems procrastination is the order of the day.

Originally posted by spencerjohnstone Heres a question, isnt that weather fenominai back again, we had it years ago? Elmenau or something it was called.

I believe you are referring to El Nino (with a tilda above the second n making a sound like nya, short i and long o).

Warm weather turns bears into insomniacs

This one talks about how the Siberian bears are not yet in their winter slumber. It also says at the bottom, that it has been so warm, that the trees have new buds, and some flowers are blooming for the second time this year.

Sometimes I read these stories, many times I pass them over. Why? Because of just this.. you get a month or so of bad weather, and people are running around like chicken little screaming that the sky is falling.

Do you know what a month of way out weather means? It means you have some bad luck. You know what a year of way out weather means? It means you're probably on some end of a pattern that's existed long before your most ancient of ancestors did.

Who else here realized that events on a global scale move a lot slower than you do? Do many of these supposed researchers realize half the time that they're dealing with many complex patterns that have been established for enormous periods of time and while we may be stressing our environment right up to and likely past its breaking point, we won't see a lot of these effects for quite some time, nor are many of them permanent, and many 'heal' pretty quickly? quickly on your perception of time.. pretty much instantly on a global time scale.

One really has to ask, how much are we changing out environment and how much is the environments natural cycles or convergence of a number of cycles and patterns?

Anyone who thinks we're not having an effect on our environment is a fool in the most ostrich-like of their kind, but also jumping at every freak outbreak of weather, even tho this has been happening for longer than you have been around is just as fool hardy and borders on simpletons who insist that not going outside with your jacket is the cause of your current bout of the flu, even if that time without the jacket was two years ago, but that was only because you had wet hair too.

One of the biggest flaws in most peoples arguement is lack of perspective, but that takes a backseat to those who would use others sympathy for getting their ideas across instead of actual reasoning.

maybe the real question to look at here is... have we built ourselves so out to the limit, with a lack of robustness and redundancy that now our ways of life are in jeapordy because the weather deviated just a hair out of its norm? and yes, it was just a hair out, or just unexpected. that is the real cause for alarm. Lets not let our personal prejudices and pet theories stand in the way of rational thought.

Originally posted by CoffinFeeder

Lets not let our personal prejudices and pet theories stand in the way of rational thought.

Or actual information.

Good idea in any event. Let's not let our assumptions, personal prejudices and pet theories stand in the way of the educational process.

Here's a good rational place to start, from the National Academies Press.



Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises (2002)
Ocean Studies Board (OSB)
Polar Research Board (PRB)
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC)

Executive Summary

Recent scientific evidence shows that major and widespread climate changes have occurred with startling speed. For example, roughly half the north Atlantic warming since the last ice age was achieved in only a decade, and it was accompanied by significant climatic changes across most of the globe. Similar events, including local warmings as large as 16°C, occurred repeatedly during the slide into and climb out of the last ice age. Human civilizations arose after those extreme, global ice-age climate jumps. Severe droughts and other regional climate events during the current warm period have shown similar tendencies of abrupt onset and great persistence, often with adverse effects on societies.

Abrupt climate changes were especially common when the climate system was being forced to change most rapidly. Thus, greenhouse warming and other human alterations of the earth system may increase the possibility of large, abrupt, and unwelcome regional or global climatic events. The abrupt changes of the past are not fully explained yet, and climate models typically underestimate the size, speed, and extent of those changes. Hence, future abrupt changes cannot be predicted with confidence, and climate surprises are to be expected.

The new paradigm of an abruptly changing climatic system has been well established by research over the last decade, but this new thinking is little known and scarcely appreciated in the wider community of natural and social scientists and policy-makers. At present, there is no plan for improving our understanding of the issue, no research priorities have been identified, and no policy-making body is addressing the many concerns raised by the potential for abrupt climate change. Given these gaps, the US Global Change Research Program asked the National Research Council to establish the Committee on Abrupt Climate Change and charged the group to describe the current state of knowledge in the field and recommend ways to fill in the knowledge gaps.

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Here's another example of the local changes in Thailand.

Let me just add this years cool season is extremely hot, and it is following the wettest dry season in living memory.

Normally the cool season will start in the first weeks of November by the changing of the predominant winds from South to North. Last year the season opened with a chilling tyfoon from North in the first week of November.

Today it's December and there has been nothing like it so far this year. Some days the winds are Easterly bringing a little coolness from the ocean. Only one day I've observed it in North, but next day the warm humid Equatorial winds blew again.

Yesterday I stumbled over this article in Bangkok Post that confirms the tendency, and that human habitation adds to accelerate the phenomenon. How they can know it "only" will last for 40 years the study doesn't say.

CLIMATE CHANGE / URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT
Bangkok would have little chance of experiencing a cool season in the next four decades as the capital's temperature continues to rise due to an ''urban heat island'' and global warming, according to experts. Other provinces would also experience shorter spells of cool weather over the long run, they added.

Like other big cities, Bangkok is experiencing an ''urban heat island'', a phenomenon which sees temperatures in cities rise more than in the countryside, said Jariya Boonjawat, an environmentalist at the Southeast Asia START Regional Centre, an environmental research organisation.
....
Four decades ago, the average temperature during Bangkok's cool season was below 15C, according to Ms Jariya, but the minimum temperature has gradually increased to 20C now.
....
The Meteorological Department forecasts that Bangkok's minimum temperature will be in the range of 24 to 26C from now until early in December. The temperature will drop about one degree next year when the country is in the middle of the cool season, it says.

The part of Thailand were most people stay is more or less to consider as urban area. Yes, it is unusual hot. I don't dare think how the hot season will be.

And another weird happening: I live in NE Tennessee. Right now, as I'm looking out my window, the winds are at this minute blowing at least 40 mph. For the last 2 hours, they've been at least 80 mph, gale force. A huge tree was blown down, as well as the 50 lb. cover on our hot tub.

So I log on to Earthlink weather, the Weather Channel and the U.S. weather sites. ALL of them say this: 15 to 25 mph with light rain. No storm warning, nothing.

Weather news blackout? If everything is so peachy, why are they not telling us the truth???

As always, Soficrow, terrific research and thanks for the info, I wouldn't have knkown about this if you hadn't started this thread.

Khunmoon, thanks for the info about Thailand. I had no idea.