Weather is changing rapidly in The Netherlands

Today's news message from the National Weather Institution (KNMI) in The Netherlands.

They are writing that the much to soft fall weather is still continuing. This week again we will have temperatures till 15 degrees Celsius, which is 5 more than above average. Also the expectation for the whole month says we will have continues soft weather.

This fall everything is greener than before. Last year we had the warmest fall in 3 centuries and the leaves continues to stuck on the trees for a extraordinary long time. Take a look at the pictures and see yourself. One is taken November 1st 2004 and the other one November 1st 2006



Also from September the 1st till October 15th we had a average temperature of 16.5 degrees Celsius and in Summer we had a average of 16.6 degrees Celsius. On December the 1st winter starts.

The weather in 2006 gives one record after the other. July was extremely hot (we had two heat waves for days), Augustus was extremely wet (so much rain you can’t imagine) and September was the hottest month in the last 300 years. October was one of the hottest in 100 year.

Last week we had the first fall storm with 115 km p/u which was also extraordinary. In some places we had floods, especially in the Northern part of the Netherlands. In Delfzijl the water was 4.83 above NAP. It was never that high before. The last times were in 1825 (4.60 above NAP) and in 1901 (4.53 above NAP). And if you take in consideration that statistically it happens only 15 times per 1000 years. And not to forget the big storm tide which we had in 1962 (were many people lost their lives) it was 4.46 above NAP in that region.

In January we had extreme snow for a few days and almost the whole country couldn’t move.

My point is the weather is rapidly changing in The Netherlands and also after seeing An Inconvenient Truth from Al Gore, I am pretty shocked about what can happen to our country. Basically we just have to have one big storm or something from that kind and we will have floods in the whole country. I also wonder if we can really stop all this and if this is not something that belongs to nature to happen. I do believe we can slow it down.

The nice thing about this climate changing is that we can build wineries now and make our own wine.

I remember going to north Europe in 1999 and seeing the enormous changes in weather that global warming had brought. When I saw those changes in England and France, (e.g. brown grass in the summer, much hotter temps) I became very concerned about the Netherlands, knowing it is at sea level and of course global warming is expected to make the sea level rise. I sure hope your country will be alright and that measures are taken to protect the Netherlands, a most wonderful place. I was there in the '80's and loved everything about it, especially the friendly people. I am sad that such a wonderful place may be in danger of floods.

Rai76 I totally agree with you, though I have to admit is it taking place everywhere and in many countries within the EU.

I have not been able to see Al Gore´s movie, but I am looking forward to it.

With regard to your country, there is not much more to add, you are aware of the danger and I have to say, I do not expect the ruling Government would be able to stop the sea rising level to flood the country...

The question is not "if it is going to happen" but "when is it going to happen?".

I started a thread not long ago, asking if someone had or knew a global map of the suspected areas that would be flooded in the future...
It seems that Al Gore talks about it on "An Inconvenient Truth". Someome must have this map and if they - more or less - know how the Earth in the future could be...
Shouldn´t we be doing something NOW about it?
What are they waiting for?

Ptolomeo you are right.

It's happening everywere but I think we are realizing it more and more and that is a good thing, now we have to act. Al Gore indeed shows pictures of what can happen to various countries, he also mention the Netherlands and show what can happen and this is pritty scary and disturbing.

could't agree more !!
I live in Belgium ( neighbour!! ) and up here its the same everywhere ya look there are trees who have all there leaves. i find it interresting that older ppl in a range of 45+ mostly tell me that they never had anything like that !! It seems that the seasons are changing . Like this weekend it suddenly got somewhat colder then a week ago. you could see some leaves falling of trees and it seems like the birds are passing Belgium only now. Normally they pass around october! All very strange stuff .

Originally posted by rai76
Ptolomeo you are right.

It's happening everywere but I think we are realizing it more and more and that is a good thing, now we have to act. Al Gore indeed shows pictures of what can happen to various countries, he also mention the Netherlands and show what can happen and this is pritty scary and disturbing.

It is scary as it seems it will happen.

I know this can sound - more scary - but, have you decided something about it?

Well apart from the fact that I am moving to Buenos, Argentina in a few months (only for a few years, not because of this), there isn't much I can do I think accept that I should start to use more Eco friendly stuff. But there is a huge task for my goverment and luckely they are beginning to see the problem aswell.

Also my Prime Minister together with Tony Blair sent a letter to all EU leaders a few weeks ago saying that Europa must take the furrow rope by the international debate over climate change.

you can read the letter here www.minaz.nl...

So that is a good start.



[edit on 5/11/2006 by rai76]

Originally posted by rai76
Well apart from the fact that I am moving to Buenos, Argentina in a few months (only for a few years, not because of this), there isn't much I can do I think accept that I should start to use more Eco friendly (..)
[edit on 5/11/2006 by rai76]

What a change!
Good luck in Buenos Aires.

I hope that all the Governments come together and do something to solve this Big problem...

There was an article I read detailing that the same thing was happening in london. There were two pictures of Hyde park, one with the paths hidden by leaves, the other with no leaf fall whatsoever. The first pic from last year, the second from this year, both taken at exactly the same date.

im from sydney and yesterday we had four seasons in one. in the moring i woke to a huge thunder storm land heavey rain, by mid morning that was gone and it was cool and windy then around lunch it became extremely hot one of our hottest days then at night it was extremely cold things like that are starting to be regular now

I WATS you for this thread Rai, excellent example. I will go try and find some more.

I watch the Al Gore film 'An Inconvenient Truth' yesterday and was quite shocked by potentially how quick the changes could happen.....there was a piece in there about how the changes are having big effects on animals, where birds used to hatch when certain insects did, are now finding that the insects are hatching earlier, and they are short of food......quite disturbing.

For Ptolomeo, here is the link to a recent ATS thread which supplies a number of links to the maps you are looking for:


www.abovetopsecret.com...


And to Strodyn, be aware that the DVD version of An Inconvenient Truth, which is being released on November 21st 2006, will have added footage. In addition, the book version of An Inconvenient Truth has much more data on the range of problems caused by climate change... you can only present a finite amount of that kind of info in a feature-length movie.

[edit on 11/15/2006 by Uphill]

(A bit off topic so ignore if you want.)

Originally posted by Uphill
... the book version of An Inconvenient Truth...

It seems that their is a new book released every day regarding the effects of global warming and ways to reduce our carbon footprint. Am I the only one who see's this as a problem. (Didn't see anywhere else to put this) Wouldn't it be better to release these as podcasts or e-books to save trees? And shouldn't they be free as they are guides on how to save the planet that every person to should be reading and implementing, surely paying for them is sticking to the capitalistic model that got us into this mess...

[edit on 16/11/06 by byhiniur]

And yet today we broke another record in the Netherlands.

Today in the news: The soft fallweather has reached another heathing record. Yet never it was so warm so late in November. The temperature reached 16,5 degrees celcius. In the souterhern part of The Netherlands reached a temperature above 18 degrees celcius.

Do I have to remind people that winter starts in a few weeks and we should now have tempertures like 6-8 degrees celcius

Normally we have night temperatures of 4 degrees and now around 10-12

The expectations continues to be soft weather.

I have to say I don't mind that the temperature is still very high for the time of the year, but you can defenetly say something is changing!!!

For the people that are interested the Dutch National Weather Institution (KNMI) wrote several climate scenario's (also in English) for the Netherlands in the upcoming years ahead. They also observe alot of what is happening world wide.

On 30 May 2006, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) presented four new climate scenarios for the Netherlands (KNMI'06 scenarios). They will serve as the national standard in adaptation policies for the coming years.

A description of these new scenarios and the way they were developed can be found in the English brochure "Climate in the 21st century: four scenarios for the Netherlands" and in the scientific background document "KNMI Climate Change Scenarios 2006 for the Netherlands"

You can download the file here Climate scenario Netherlands choose Brochure KNMI'06 scenarios (EN)

I can assure you it is a very very interesting read.

I will highlight one very important scenario sea level.

Sea level.

Between 1993 and 2004, the sea level in the northeastern part of the Atlantic Ocean (including the North Sea) also increased approximately 3 mm per year. From 1900 on, the sea level rise in the North Sea was on average 2 mm per year, or 20 cm in the 20th century. The water level in the North Sea is afected by the sea level rise in the Atlantic Ocean, but also by changes in the wind and current driven pressure exerted on the water column.



The total impact alon the Dutch coast (=relative sea level rise) is larger, since subsidence of the ground level also has to be taken into account. During the 20th century this subsidence in the Netherlands varied on average between 0 and 4 mm per year, depending on the exact location.

Future worldwide

Oceans react slowly to air temperature rise. Therefore, the sea level rise in the next few decdes is rather insensitive to the rate of air temperature increase. Only after 2050 does the rate of glbal warming become more important.

Due to the slow reaction of the ocens, the sea level will continue to rise long after 2100, even if greenhouse gas concentratrions stabilise. In addition, if large scale melting of the large ice sheet also takes place, a sea level rise of a few meters within a few centuries can be expected.

Future for the Netherlands

Climate models show large differences amond themselves with regard to the sensitivity of sea level rise to increased air temperatures. In order to represent the uncertainty, a range of sea level rise is given for each scenario, instead of only on number. the scenarios vary due to the differences in global temperature rise, but not due to the changes in air ciculation.

The new KNMI'06 climate scenarios only present the absolute seal level rise, which is almost eh same the seal elvel rise compared to NAP (Dutch height system). To calculate the relative seal level rise for a particular location, information on the local ground level subsidence should be added to the scenario data.

The absolute sea level rise along the Dutch coast around 2050 varies in the scenarios between 15 and 35 cm. Around 2100 the sea level rise varies between 35 and 85 cm. The sea level will continue to rise after 2100 and in 2300 it will amount to 1m up to 2.5m.

Example for summer temperature

In the KNMI’06 climate scenarios the temperature increase in the Netherlands does not equal global temperature rise. The Netherlands is located at the edge of a continent, which warms faster than the global average. At the same time, it is located close to the northeastern part of the Atlantic Ocean, for which most climate models calculate a relatively slow temperature increase. The scenarios with changes in air circulation (G+ and W+) show a faster warming than the scenarios that do not include such changes (G and W).

Fig.1 Summer temperature (June-August) in De Bilt (the Netherlands) between 1900 and 2005 and the four climate scenarios for 2050 (coloured points). The thick black line represents the 30-year moving average of the observations. The thick coloured and dashed lines connect each climate scenario with the baseline year 1990. The grey band represents the year-to-year variation, derived from the observations.



Here a short summary of other climate changes that will occur in the Netherlands.

How does the Dutch Climate change?

- Temperature will continue to rise. Mild winters and hot summers will become more common;

- On average, winters will become wetter and extreme precipitation amount will increase;

- The intensity of extreme rain showers in summer will increase however the number of rainy days in summer will decrease;

- The calculated change in wind is small compared to the natural fluctuations.

For the one's that are really interested there is also report of 82 pages of scientic information and explanation of these scenarios. You can find it here Scientific report choose Scientific report KNMI'06 scenarios.


[edit on 16/11/2006 by rai76]

Originally posted by rai76
My point is the weather is rapidly changing in The Netherlands and also after seeing An Inconvenient Truth from Al Gore, I am pretty shocked about what can happen to our country.

Also consider there is a strong negative NAO and a moderate ENSO event at this time is delaying the onset of winter in the Netherlands.

Predictions of winter 2006/2007 in the UK & Europe

Summary:

So a concise summary of all the above is that the overall northern hemisphere pattern during the last four winters has supported weak westerlies across the North Atlantic and as a consequence the occurrence of cold weather in Europe with negative NAO spells but owing to particular conditions in these winters, these negative NAO spells have occurred late in the winter and a persistent high located near the UK has meant most cold weather has been confined to eastern Europe. Now the overall northern hemisphere pattern which supports weak westerlies across the North Atlantic also applies for this winter 2006/2007 and in the first nine days of November 2006, there have already been two arctic blasts directed towards the Balkans & Greece which has been characteristic of recent winters. So another winter which is cold in the east and average or mild in western Europe is a good bet. However, Table 3 suggests conditions are ripe for a period of strongly negative NAO with a weak El Nino and low sunpsots in particular, so there is a significant risk that the timing of the NAO spells may be earlier than in recent winters meaning some really cold airmasses get into the UK and western Europe too this winter. Both Figure 1 & 2 show that previous periods of low westerlies in the 1960s and 1980s did have some winters in which the average NAO was more negative than recent ones and in these cases very cold air associated with strongly negative NAO spells occurred in the UK and western Europe. There is no reason to suspect that this current cycle of low westerlies won't have winters which are similar. The overall northern hemisphere pattern suggests that winter 2006/2007 could be such a winter.

Additional info here from same author here

There's a multitude of parameters at play in regards to global warming and climate change. The consistent trend is not necessarily warmer regional weather, but more extreme weather events.

Near Blizzard Conditions Hit Colorado Mountains

And yet we have another record today. January was already never that warm in ages, we have like 14 degrees. It should normally be around 4 or 5 degrees. And because of this weahter we have one of the biggest storms ever in history today. Today I had to leave my office because it was shaking. And i thought I had enough wind today, they just announced a second storm for tonight, which will be heavier. Already 6 people have been killed.

For you people in the US it's normal to have strong winds and things like that and you can't compare it, but we are really not used to this kind of weather. It's pretty scary that we in the Netherlands have to get used to this for the future.

[edit on 18/1/2007 by rai76]

Originally posted by rai76
For you people in the US it's normal and you can't compare it, but we are really not used to this kind of weather. It's pretty scary that we in the Netherlands have to get used to this for the future.

The weather in the Northeast and Atlantic coast of the U.S. has been extremely warm. It's gotten cold here in NYC in the past few days, but it's only the second time this season. Only a few days ago it was pushing 60F when we should have snow!

Originally posted by rai76
And yet we have another record today. January was already never that warm in ages, we have like 14 degrees. It should normally be around 4 or 5 degrees. And because of this weahter we have one of the biggest storms ever in history today. Today I had to leave my office because it was shaking. And i thought I had enough wind today, they just announced a second storm for tonight, which will be heavier.

For you people in the US it's normal and you can't compare it, but we are really not used to this kind of weather. It's pretty scary that we in the Netherlands have to get used to this for the future.

weve had worse winds, but this winter the winds are more frequent, i rememeber 20 years ago, you would have winds like this every 3-4 years, and already over the last few months, in london, we have had a few(3-4) heavy period of winds.

interesting isn't it, how quickly things are changing.

interesting isn't it, how quickly things are changing.

Exactly! Today they were discussing in the news that normally we have some winds every 3 or 4 years (not that strong as today), but if you emagine, that exactly one week ago, we also had a very big storm. So two times in two weeks very big storms instead of every 3 or 4 years a little storm, things are changing rapidly!!