Which one is going to go 'bang' first?

North Korea vs anyones guess

Israel vs Palestine vs Lebanon

Iran vs take your pick

China vs Taiwan

The Iraq / Afghanistan situation

Al Queda vs too many enemies to list

I cannot think of another time in modern history that the 'civilised' world has been on the brink of so many possible potential large-scale wars. Although the media & commentary available to the regular 'man in the street' is at an all time high I do not think that this is the only reason why we're all sitting on the edge of our seats waiting for fireworks. I consider myself to be a peace loving citizen who adds my dues to the society in which I live. However, I really can't see a peaceful way of solving many of the potential conflicts as listed above. Blood is going to be shed, thats for sure, what we need to try and ensure is that whoever is left has got a firm grasp on how the future needs to be nurtured and directed to try and create something good from the bad.

All of the above possible scenarios seem to offer a million and one ways that they will affect our every day lives. I'm not just talking about Kim Jong-Il accidentally letting a nuke slip, but on a much more fundamental level: oil prices skyrocketing, infringements into our civil liberties (speech, religion, freedom of movement etc.), the potential of us prematurely destroying our environment.... this list goes on and on.

So, what or who is going to be the catalyst? Who's going to make the first move? In spite of the recent developments in NK I still think it will be 'Iran-gate' that will begin the chain reaction that changes the way we live our lives. Given the current worldwide diplomatic issues facing all of our countries I do believe that we are now merely months away from a quantum shift if the way that 'Earth Corp' is managed.

So, what's the consensus ATS?

Benjj

Originally posted by benjj

So, what or who is going to be the catalyst? Who's going to make the first move? In spite of the recent developments in NK I still think it will be 'Iran-gate' that will begin the chain reaction that changes the way we live our lives. Given the current worldwide diplomatic issues facing all of our countries I do believe that we are now merely months away from a quantum shift if the way that 'Earth Corp' is managed.

So, what's the consensus ATS?

You're probably right Benjj...there will be a catalyst, and as a sidenote very nice post ... its difficult, I know, to try and maintain a positive outlook, and attempt to forsee how any good can come of the bad.

That being said, however, Im not sure any one of those will necessarily be "the" catalyst...Im thinking more like all of them will...while it may be conspiracy theory on my part, I believe that a lot of what we're seeing is actually all tied together somehow.

That Iran, North Korea, China, Venezuela, Al Quaida, are all in bed together while USA, Israel, UK, Spain, Australia are in their respective beds. I believe that it's just possible that the former have been conspiring to bring the world to exactly this point it's at today, to ensure that not only do the US and their allies hands get seemingly tied by their own demise, but that they bring about economic turmoil in the process. All too often these days it seems countries leaders (ALL OF THEM) are just simply not acting rational on ANY venue...the world has begun to slip away from the hands of the people and into the hands of the very few who wield the power (read: money, oil, resources).
Just my twist on things...



AB1

TRICK QUESTION.

Al-Qaida is already 'going bang' all over the planet. Islamic extremists have already declared war on everyone who worships God differently than they do. They've been doing it for decades.

So your question can't be answered. It's kinda out of date.

FF, even though he did not directly say it, I think his idea was different than yours.

I think you ment bombs in cars/buildings/on people....

I think he was refering to a nuclear "Bang" used agaisnt another country/group.

Just my 2 cents.

Originally posted by mrmonsoon
I think he was refering to a nuclear "Bang" used agaisnt another country/group.

AHHHHHHHH ... okay .... hmmmmmmm

Then i'm back to Al-qaida. They have actively been engaged in a war against civilization for decades now. As soon as they get their hands on one of those loose nukes from the dismantled Soviet era ... KABOOOOOM goes NYC or DC or Philly or Houston or ......

Al-Qaida is still my answer.

Tough question to answer but a very provocation one.
With exception of Al Queda most are looking for some sort of peace to their own benefit. Now ok before someone rants at me for that let me explain.

Iranian president is looking for peace and equality for a nuke program. But are willing to defend themselves should the US makes waves against them.

Iraq brings insurgents which are proclaiming to be in the name of Allah!
(Religious based as most conflicts are)

Isreal, Palistine and Lebanon - land rights, religion

North Korea? This little goon is just plain crazy. He doesn't care how many people go to make a point.
Whereas most of the other countries in question are more apt to take a second look before pulling the trigger.

I personally don't condone any of it but I think that NK will be the most likely to BANG first.

Al Qaeda no doubt, because they got no state to protect, nor do they fear any retaliation because they are spread all over the world, where nations will not allow the U.S. to go nuke. No hesitation what so ever by Al Qaeda.

Ben you missed one out, America V the rest of the World. America is about as popular as tooth ache at the moment which is a shame, all because the elected goverment has been allowed to take the country into a minefield with no map.

I think North Korea is looking for a reason to invade South Korea, which means a war with the US. So they want China to back them up. I think they are hurting from current sanctions more than we know. The latest actions like the missile test and fake nuke test are desperate acts to try to provoke us into an attack. They can't invade SK unless it looks like our fault and draw in China.

He can't attack unless we strike first, and that is why they are provoking us. the latest threat about sanctions from the US means war is the indicator. They insist on unilateral talks, because they know we will refuse and it makes us look bad. I think sanctions will be imposed, and then they might attack SK. I hope they don't but I think they are crazy enough to do it.

Originally posted by Hal9000
I think North Korea is looking for a reason to invade South Korea, which means a war with the US. So they want China to back them up. I think they are hurting from current sanctions more than we know. The latest actions like the missile test and fake nuke test are desperate acts to try to provoke us into an attack. They can't invade SK unless it looks like our fault and draw in China.

Its possible, with so many troops being busy with other parts of the world, a small American force may not be able to stop NK's juggernaut force, and a nuclear weapon in NK's hands would probably deter the U.S. from interfering. NK is rushing things fast doing testing of missiles and a nuke to show that resisting another NK invasion would be futile.

I would say Israël/Syria/Iran/Hezbollah, following by North Korea/Japan. Or maybe Al-CIA VS the US...

Originally posted by deltaboy
Its possible, with so many troops being busy with other parts of the world

Another good point. NK may think that we are spread to thin and with the problems in Iraq and the support from the American public falling, they see this as an opportune time to do it.

Mmm, interesting thoughts from the brilliant brains of ATS.....

Just a little housekeeping: By 'bang' I was not referring to a practical explosion, more of an event or manouver that will propogate a hightened state of conflict. eg. KJI conducting a further test or actually proving he has a missile program that can utilise his (supposed) warheads.

I think the conspiracy based ideas of AB1 are very interesting but possibly slightly out of the realms of possibility. The thought of KJI or any leader of any of the countries I mentioned actually working with each other is too far a stretch of the imagination for me!

The one major issue that I think will add towards the chain reaction is just how thinly spread the US forces are at present. Someone hell-bent on the downfall of the US has not had a better opportunity since WWII to actually get some results having a crack at the US. I'm not suggesting for a moment that they would actually win, but somebody with the right idea(s) could certainly perpetrate a much harder blow to America than 9/11 these days. I'm not talking actual dead bodies here, but a committed attack against the very service-industry heavy US economy.

On Al Queda - Yes, they have shown their hand and are waging jihad against the infidels, but with what impact? 9/11 was the largest terrorist attack the US had ever seen on home soil, yet America are killing as many of the 'enemy' each week in Iraq and Afghanistan and have been for a couple of years. QED, America are winning the war against AQ hands down.

I dont pertain to have the answers but I do think that there are aparent indicators that we're about to enter the 'next stage', whatever that is...

Benjj

I agree on Alqaeda.
All other aspects of the question have states, have citizens, have economies..

Alqaeda are merely a hidden group of people around the world.

In saying that though,
The US have stated they will not allow a nuclear Iran.

This isnt the US talking, its Israel.

North Korea dont mean Jack to Israel, where as Iran do.

So maybe the US will stay the weak course on Nkorea. Let the asian region deal with the asian problem.

we're waiting to light up Iran...

I wouldnt be surprised to see a minor/medium bomb or somethign go off in israel. just to shift the focus back on them needing to the be the ones defended, rather than focus on Nkorea.
There's competiton out ther as to who the USA is going to focus on, and I dont see many korean officials on the USA administration.

[edit on 12-10-2006 by Agit8dChop]

This situation is kind of like everyone in one room pointing their guns at each other..

[edit on 13-10-2006 by IspyU]