Other October Surprises!

Perhaps one of the best world affairs analyst groups out there is Stratfor.com; a site made up of former military intel people gone private.

Their assessments of current events is generally spot on. I put my trust in their analysis after they issued reports warning that Iran was fueling the insurgency in Iraq and that in reality we were fighting a proxy war with Iran there.

This story came out two years before the mainstream media started to pick up on the Iran insurgency connection.

That being said, their reports are only sent to subscribers by email. Below is just a short exceprt rounding up the potential October Surprise scenarios they see as, while remote, possible.

October surprises are now popping up everywhere. Bob Woodward's new book on the infighting among the Bush administration's foreign policy team dominated national news for a day, only to be overwhelmed by attention to former Rep. Mark Foley's allegedly indecent exchanges with congressional pages. More noticeable to most voters -- though receiving less coverage -- are rapidly falling gasoline prices. Also, though economists agree the economy is slowing, the Dow Jones industrial average has hit a new record high, swelling voters' 401(k) and IRA accounts just before the midterm election. These changes likely will remake the congressional battlefield just as the campaign enters its final month, and the surprises are unlikely to slow.

Other newsworthy events said to be imminent include rumors Iran is arming Iraqi militias for a series of attacks against the Iraqi government. These attacks supposedly will put the U.S.-backed Iraqi government at grave risk just before the U.S. congressional election. Other rumored pre-election events include the announcement of proof of Osama bin Laden's death, or Pakistan's presentation of another high-value al Qaeda target to the United States. These are familiar rumors -- with the Iraq rumor far more likely to be true than the bin Laden one -- but a coming election amplifies the effect of surprise events, particularly when power in Congress could change, making the rumors themselves powerful.

If anyone wants to read the whole report, just email me.

Why don't you post here all the report? It would be great read.

Why not post a link to the article?

Originally posted by Vitchilo
Why don't you post here all the report? It would be great read.

Not allowed. That would be plagerism. But if you want it, I can email it to you.

After The Foley scandal, I don't know that anything else could top that. But I am still waiting for what Carl Rove was referring to. If it was falling gas prices, they will have to do better than that.

I have heard a lot of predictions that the US will attack Iran, but I don't know if that qualifies as a surprise. Anything short of GW coming out of the closet, will probably not have the intended effect because everyone will immediately suspect political motivations.

Stratfor posted thier article online as its Weekly Intel Report (one of its free services). I don't know how many other people subscribe, but I highly recommend Stratfor, they are unbiased politically and give the details needed for understanding complicated international issues.

Link

BTW, the Foley scandle isn't a serious issue, and I am yet to see a valid point on why it is. With Russia on the Georgia border, North Korea about to detonate nukes, 2 wars happening, big trouble in Nigeria, Iran giving Europe the middle finger in thier face, and Pakistan playing houseguest to the Taliban, if you think Foley is important you watch way too much TV and need new sources for information.

How can Foley be a sex scandle when no one has sex? If there was ever a good case to be made that Americans to get laid more often, and Americans thinking Foley is a sex scandle is proof.

I did find the article and your source relevant, but...

Originally posted by darksided
With Russia on the Georgia border, North Korea about to detonate nukes, 2 wars happening, big trouble in Nigeria, Iran giving Europe the middle finger in thier face, and Pakistan playing houseguest to the Taliban,

what does any of this have to do with an October surprise and the US election? Unless you think Carl Rove or someone has some control over this.

Originally posted by darksided
if you think Foley is important you watch way too much TV and need new sources for information.

I think it will have an impact on the upcoming election, and that could alter the direction this country is going.

Originally posted by Hal9000
I did find the article and your source relevant, but...

Originally posted by darksided
With Russia on the Georgia border, North Korea about to detonate nukes, 2 wars happening, big trouble in Nigeria, Iran giving Europe the middle finger in thier face, and Pakistan playing houseguest to the Taliban,

what does any of this have to do with an October surprise and the US election? Unless you think Carl Rove or someone has some control over this.

Originally posted by darksided
if you think Foley is important you watch way too much TV and need new sources for information.

I think it will have an impact on the upcoming election, and that could alter the direction this country is going.

Any of these flashpoints can all be an eventual October surprise if Bush decides to take action on any of them. Bombing runs in Iran or N.Korea, in particular.

I agree and said so in a previous post about attacking Iran, but...

Originally posted by darksided
North Korea about to detonate nukes

[snip]

Iran giving Europe the middle finger in thier face

is not the same as...

Originally posted by behindthescenes
Bombing runs in Iran or N.Korea, in particular.

Regardless, I will give you both the benefit of the doubt as to your meaning. I would rather not see either of these events happen just so someone can win an election.