China will get carrier soon

This is a huge mistake I saw on www.globalsecurity.org... in which say Varyag has abandoned and to be sold for display.
I can promiss that lifter in this carrier is quite good for using, and China has already got electronics for this ship, and powerplant are reseaching by themself. You will also see Su-33 Sea Flanker flying in China maybe on Varyag. I have got some photos showing how recency it is now, and at least make me believe that explosion almost never be done on that ship.

Wiki says the vessel is outdated and China's People's Liberation Army Navy is planning on using it for training purposes, take-offs and landings of military aircraft, rather than commissioning it...

en.wikipedia.org...

However, I think China did get a smokin' deal on the boat (20million) for what they might be using it for... and it was purchased under false pretenses... a floating casino/resort, no less

how many years is considered "soon"

any where between 10 years to 50 years?

Outdated Russian Garbage, not to mention no trained naval pilots!



No body beats the US Navy or Air Force!

Unless they can get the Russains to help them out with it. I'd imagine the Ruskies know a thing or two about carrier flying. Maybe not enough to make them very combat effective, but surely enough to get the Chinese Navy started. Every country needs to start somewhere, it's not as if the USN suddenly had carriers with trained pilots.

Originally posted by cyberdude78
Unless they can get the Russains to help them out with it. I'd imagine the Ruskies know a thing or two about carrier flying. Maybe not enough to make them very combat effective, but surely enough to get the Chinese Navy started. Every country needs to start somewhere, it's not as if the USN suddenly had carriers with trained pilots.

Its more than the pilots which take a minimum of 5 to 10 years, the firefighting, the carrier tactics. The Russians only had 2 carriers and had poor training, only in the USN can you get the proper training. The only other nation with such training was the JEN during WWII.

Yes why is it that China has a 200 million man army?
Why did they request 2000 757 jets?
and yes why do they need this ship?

Originally posted by mel1962Its more than the pilots which take a minimum of 5 to 10 years, the firefighting, the carrier tactics. The Russians only had 2 carriers and had poor training, only in the USN can you get the proper training. The only other nation with such training was the JEN during WWII.

You're right that China has quite a ways to go, but Russain assistance would accelerate the process. And like I said, everyone has to start somewhere. The United States Navy learned the same way as China's probably going have to, by trying, making mistakes, learning from those mistakes, and trying again. It'll by no means be a short process, but the Russains can make it go a bit faster, maybe prevent a few fatal accidents.

I can assure you that Russian assistance will not greatly assist the chinese in gaining vital carrier ops know-how..
If there is an interest in 'why' and 'how' this is so,we can discuss it.Let me know..

The Russians have had an extremely limited experience in live carrier ops.
Couple that with a disastrous Su-33 carrier accident a few years back and you have very little carrier confidence there.
Other reasons that show the same? I will share mine if there's an interest..
Also they would only give so much to the chinese in terms of maintaining the balance of power in the North Pacific.

Summary: The chinese most probably NOT operationalise the Varyag and they MOST probably WILL use it as a platform to train and gain carrier know-how. They probably bought the HMAS Melbourne for the very same reason.
Will they take it out to sea in the process? Maybe.. But I seriously doubt they have the knowledge or confidence to operationalise a carrier in the near future(5-10 yrs).In carrier terms China is now probably where the British/Americans were in the 30s.. Completely new territory and no one available for assistance.
I think their eventual masterplan is to finally build an operational carrier, their first.Even the Su-33s that they(China) may be in th process of acquiring are probably for training and experience building.
Maybe they've shelved this plan now and many times before; but then again only shelved it, not discarded it.
A carrier is very much on the cards, maybe 2015 onwards?

Originally posted by PHARAOH1133
Yes why is it that China has a 200 million man army?
Why did they request 2000 757 jets?
and yes why do they need this ship?

More like a 2 million man army. Where'd you get that figure?

I believe that the 200 million man army figure is based on the number of able bodied men that they could draft without having to recruit children and the elderly. It's definatley not trained and active service though, and their actual reserves are actually very low with only about 800,000 or so compared to the US with around 1,300,000 reserves and then Russia's immense 20,000,000 in the reserves. Although I believe that due to Russian military doctrine they'd be unable to draft many more able bodied men than they've already got in the reserves.

So from the get go China's standing active army is roughly 2mil, their reserve forces are about 800k, but they could potentially draft 200mil. The massive ratio of men to women in China is probably one of their greatest advantages as far as the draft goes seing as so many nations are so reluctant to draft women.

But back on to topic, China may be quite a while away from an actual operational carrier. But they'll definatley get one some day barring a nuclear exchange tommorow.

They could just load it up with helicopters and make it into an ASW platform or possibly an airborne assualt ship (like a WASP class minus the amphib craft).

Such a ship would provide great use in either role.
-ASW considering the US submarine threat.
-Assualt for Taiwan.

I would let other platforms like submarines or land based aircraft go toe to toe with the US carriers.

A ship like this would be a "warm body" in the middle of an amphibious group. Upgraded defense systems could provide a SAM umbrella against aircraft and missles as well.

They already got the ship at a deal. Making it a floating helo pad would be a cheap conversion without a lot of fanfare as well.

Whether for morale, strategy, prestige, or trainging--this was a great move on their part.

I remember reading on Xinhua sometime ago that the Chinese government announced upon buying that carrier that it has no intentions to have their own carrier fleet that their navy is for peaceful self defense and not offensive capabilities. I think China right now lacks the budget for it, the knowledge of keeping carriers in operation and servicing it. Having it and being able to use it run it and fix it is another. And to reply on someone's post about China being able to win in a war with the US in ten years. I think that's not true maybe in 20 years when China is equal technologically to the US military. Because modern warfare is based entirely on technological advantage. I mean we have cluster bombs that can kill thousands. Look at JASSM and the many other weapons we have mostly designed for conventional warfare. So unless you are equal or have a technological advantage over your foe, in conventional warfare versus the US thats suicide. But in 20 to 25 years I think the Chinese military will be advance enough to match the US, and then maybe have a chance.

A good read:
findarticles.com...

Originally posted by cyberdude78
I believe that the 200 million man army figure is based on the number of able bodied men that they could draft without having to recruit children and the elderly. It's definatley not trained and active service though, and their actual reserves are actually very low with only about 800,000 or so compared to the US with around 1,300,000 reserves and then Russia's immense 20,000,000 in the reserves. Although I believe that due to Russian military doctrine they'd be unable to draft many more able bodied men than they've already got in the reserves.

So from the get go China's standing active army is roughly 2mil, their reserve forces are about 800k, but they could potentially draft 200mil. The massive ratio of men to women in China is probably one of their greatest advantages as far as the draft goes seing as so many nations are so reluctant to draft women.

But back on to topic, China may be quite a while away from an actual operational carrier. But they'll definatley get one some day barring a nuclear exchange tommorow.

Manpower matters very little in conventional warfare unless you have the equipment and technology for your troops. No nation can equip 200 million men up the standards of a modern nation. So those 200 million men will be massacred since cluster bombs and cluster munitions from cruise missles and artillery can very easily kill thousands per weapon.

It seems to me, that the UK once had a flat-top navy. They were the ones who developed such carrier innovations, as the angled flight deck, and the steam catapult. The US pretty much followed the UK's lead, until post-war realities doomed the RN.

Two likely uses for the Varyag are as follows. One, to back engineer the best attributes, for a future Chinese-built carrier. This information could then be added to intelligence gained through espionage, and other intelligence gathering methods. The current state of the PLAAF, was developed from back engineering Soviet built aircraft. The Chinese did not seize that US E-2C some time back, so the party leadership could have a photo op, for the equivalent of their "I Love Me" wall.

Two, the Varyag could be utilized for refining their tactics and weaponry, for attacking carriers. If / when the PRC makes a play for ROC, it is widely believed that the US will intervene. The tool that will be used for intervention is the USN, in the form of the carrier battle group. Or, more likely a carrier task force, comprised of multiple CBGs.

However antiquated the Varyag may be, for a country with ambitions for a blue water navy, the Varyag could serve as training wheels for the PLAN. Better to make their learning mistakes on a naval relic, than a newly minted flagship to come. The USN is not the only operator of flattops, of all the navies that operate some kind of carrier, more than one sailors from those fleets could be lured to serve as training cadre. If the bag of gold were large enough. Or, were the sailor disgruntled / disillusioned enough.

Bear in mind, PRC has aspirations of being recognized as a superpower, first among equals. They perceive this to be their rightful place in the world, and yearn to receive what they see as their due. For proof of this, one only needs to look to the fledgling Chinese space program. And their announced intention of planting the PRC flag on the moon.

The Chinese have always thought in terms of years, decades, and centuries. Whereas the West has always been short-sighted, particularily when thinking in strategic military terms. Namely the rush to demobilize and downsize, at the conclusion of each military conflict. Confident we will always have time to build-up our forces again, when the next threat is still on the horizon. But that is a subject for another thread.

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Originally posted by pilotshinjiikaruManpower matters very little in conventional warfare unless you have the equipment and technology for your troops. No nation can equip 200 million men up the standards of a modern nation. So those 200 million men will be massacred since cluster bombs and cluster munitions from cruise missles and artillery can very easily kill thousands per weapon.

Although manpower may be less important than it was even twenty years ago, it's still an important factor. Saying manpower has little importance is like saying that we should do away with bayonets since we've got automatic weapons.

Maybe if the numbers were a bit closer, manpower would matter very little. However when an opponent has a million extra soldiers compared to your army it tends to make a difference. Remember that it doesn't matter how much techno-crap you put on a gun, it's the bullet that hits the target that makes the kill. And the more guns that're firing at you, the more likely you are to get hit.

As you said, no nation can equip 200 million men to the standards of a modern nation. That includes the USA. I'm a bit curious, what do you think happens to an army of say 50 million (a pretty generous estimate for the US until I get an actual figure, not to mention nice and even) men that goes against 200 million? The end result is a lot of people ending dieing and nobody gets anywhere. Look at the Eastern front of WWII between Germany and the USSR. The Germans couldn't get anywhere in the USSR due to the massive resisting force, and it was a real pain in the ass for the USSR to get past the German defending forces. And keep in mind Germany was fighting on another front, and the USSR recieved extensive American and British logistical support.

So if you took a China Vs. US scenario what you get is stalemate.

I'm not saying that manpower is everything, but China's standing army is roughly double the size of the US Army, and that difference would definatley make things more difficult. And on to cruise missiles and cluster bombs, yes those are very nice but nobody simply bunches thousands of soldiers together in a nice target for an aircraft. Even in peace time the chance's to kill mass amounts of infantry with a single munition are a bit slim.

Thus we'd need to use a lot of munitions. More than the US arsenal currently has short of tapping into our nuclear arsenal, which is just out of the question. Even in the latest Iraq conflict we expended a lot more munitions than we expected, and as a result we had to ramp up production of more. And that was against a nation with very little in the way of a standing army, particuarly one that didn't surrender immediatley. Even the Russains wouldn't have enough munitions to kill millions of scattered and strategically positions soldiers across a nation like China. And especially if there's AA fire or SAM cover.



But once again, back on to topic. rupturduck is right, there's a lot of carrier sailors out there, and it's hard to believe that China couldn't pay a bunch of them to lend a hand as instructors. They wouldn't even need the Russains, not that China couldn't find Russain support useful. Granted out Ruskie friends didn't get too incredibley far with their project at least they got somewhere. It's those baby steps that are the hardest.

Originally posted by rupturduck
Bear in mind, PRC has aspirations of being recognized as a superpower, first among equals. They perceive this to be their rightful place in the world, and yearn to receive what they see as their due. For proof of this, one only needs to look to the fledgling Chinese space program. And their announced intention of planting the PRC flag on the moon.

The Chinese have always thought in terms of years, decades, and centuries. Whereas the West has always been short-sighted, particularily when thinking in strategic military terms. Namely the rush to demobilize and downsize, at the conclusion of each military conflict. Confident we will always have time to build-up our forces again, when the next threat is still on the horizon. But that is a subject for another thread.

Thats what I been trying to say to an extent in my own thread.

Cyberdude I still disagree with you. Your not thinking in realistic terms. Even in WW III there will never be a 50 million man army. Even know China is shrinking its military and updating its weaponry as everyone knows. Everything in the modern world is about force multipliers. China's PLA lacks offensive capability. PLAN and PLA dont have the capability to land more than a few hundred thousand at most troops into Taiwan and the US wont fight a ground war with China so theres no chance that China will use man power as a advantage TO the extent you think so. I mean sure having a few hundred thousand troops is a advantage but China will never fight a large scale land war that will require several hundred thousand troops. The PLA and PLAN know that in a war with US its all about the US airforce from Guam and Okinawa and USN carrier groups versus PLAN, PLAAir force and PLA's missile and landing forces for Taiwan. No nation in the world is stupid enough to field a 5 million many army. Because if your committing 50 million man then thats full scale all out war and then there would be not point if US fought in a land war and the Chinese army was say throwing in their full 2 million man army the US would began to use the MAD option. As the American public would never accept casualities in the millions or even in the hundreds of thousands. We would go nuclear with China before massive land battles. So China will never ever in the future ever call up its reserves. And modern conventional wars are waged quickly not enough time to train your reserve forces. China's reserves would never be used even if called up unless you just wanna give an AK to a kid so he can be killed by cluster bombs.

Your mistaken in that you think its realistic to fight in massive conventional warfare engagements with WWII style battles. It will never happen. So your dreaming in WWII days their will never be major war between major superpowers as it would got MAD with nuke exchanges. Superpowers wont fight unless they know or think they can win. Even if conflict over Taiwan happens China would never escalate it to a war because they know they cant win, they know the realities of conventional warfare. Its funny that anyone even thinks in the terms you do. American forces will not fight a war with China, it will not fight on land with the PLA and it will not fight in a large scale land battles with China. And this isnt up to debate as its just the realities of war and the situation. Guam and Okinawa are there for a reason, if the US was going to fight land battles with China it would have stationed men in Taiwan which it doesnt and the men at South Korea couldnt even defend South Korea from a North Korea invasion or attack.