Retired Air Force Colonel Predicted Hezbollah Attack / ''Story''line

Sam Gardiner says:

Some kind of Horizontal escalation by the Iranians ...''My assessment is... and it's because of regime problems at home, that if we strike very likely to want to blame Israel, because that sells well at home. Blaming Israel means that there's a chance you could see Hezbollah and Hamas targeting Israel. We could very easily see this thing escalating into a broad Middle East War.

He might not have been totally right by saying Israel would be blamed, quite the opposite happened, but on all other predictions he was right.

-Iran was probably behind the plan to abduct Israeli soldiers.
-Committed by Hezbollah

To my understanding this interview has been broadcasted somewhere early in June, approximately a month and halve prior to the start of escalation.
A link to the interview: CNN Interview with Sam Gardiner



Additional information:

Retired Air Force Colonel, author and war game specialist Sam Gardiner was interviewed in the German documentary film Planspiel Iran regarding a war game that he had just held with military specialists in January of 2005: 'There are probably three phases to be unfold.

One phase is the phase of preparation by the Unites States to pressure Iran.

The second phase is the phase in which the United States would attempt to sell the people of the U.S. as well as the world that something needs to be done about Iran.
The idea will be to create a crisis, so that the people believe something has to be done

The third phase would be the phase of doing it.' One of the participants in the war game is CIA veteran Ray McGovern. He is aware that there are clandestine strategies being pursued which parallel these visible ones.

'This is no acadademic exercise. The templating, getting the electronic order of battle, any cross border excursions, these are precisely the kinds of things that you would do prior to waging war or prior to making air strikes against Irans nuclear facilities', says McGovern in the documentary. 'Central Command and Strategic Command planners are identifying targets, assessing weapon-loads and working on logistics for an operation, the Sunday Telegraph has learnt. [...] "This is more than just the standard military contingency assessment," said a senior Pentagon adviser. "This has taken on much greater urgency in recent months."'

Hersh: 'If the order were to be given for an attack, the American combat troops now operating in Iran would be in position to mark the critical targets with laser beams, to insure bombing accuracy and to minimize civilian casualties. As of early winter [2005], I was told by the government consultant with close ties to civilians in the Pentagon, the units were also working with minority groups in Iran, including the Azeris, in the north, the Baluchis, in the southeast, and the Kurds, in the northeast. The troops “are studying the terrain, and giving away walking-around money to ethnic tribes, and recruiting scouts from local tribes and shepherds,” the consultant said.

Known Iranian strategic targets:




Edit: Link to interview fixed

[edit on 20-8-2006 by Mdv2]

[edit on 21-8-2006 by UK Wizard]

You have voted Mdv2 for the Way Above Top Secret award. You have two more votes this month.

What a find. I'm not sure if anything will materialize, but I think its prudent to say that our government will be smart enough to be a lot more compelling when trying to sell the next war.

Thanks for the award Monica, I really appreciate it!

Anyway, I've discovered some troubles with the video, that's why I've uploaded it myself to Google Video. Meanwhile, I'll ask a mod to repair the link, as I cannot edit it anymore.

Here it is:
CNN Interview with former USAF colonel

May we speak of a conspiracy here?



Edit, Thanks to UK Wizard for fixing the link

[edit on 21-8-2006 by Mdv2]

COL. SAM GARDINER: Well, the evidence is beginning to accumulate that a decision has already been made to use military force in Iran. Now, let me do a historical thing, and then I'll tell you what the current evidence is. We now know that the decision and the actual actions to bomb Iraq occurred in July of 2002, before we ever had a U.N. resolution or before the Congress ever authorized it. It was an operation called Southern Focus, and the only guidance that the military -- or the guidance that the military had from Rumsfeld was keep it below the CNN line. His specific words. The evidence that we've already --

AMY GOODMAN: Keep it below what?

COL. SAM GARDINER: The CNN line. In other words, I don't want this to appear on CNN, okay? That was his guidance to the military, you can begin to bomb Iraq, but don't let it appear on CNN. You're catching your breath. I think the same thing has happened, and the evidence -- let me give you two or three evidences. First of all, the Iranians in their press have been writing now for almost a year that the United States is involved inside Iran conducting and supporting those who conduct military operations, attacks on military convoys. They've even accused the United States of shooting down a couple airplanes inside Iran. Okay, so there's that evidence from their side.

I was in Berlin three weeks ago, sat next to the Iranian ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, and I asked him a question. I read these stories about Americans being involved in there, and how do you react to that? And he said, oh, we know they are. We've captured people who are working with them, and they've confessed. So, another piece of evidence.

Let me give you a couple more. Seymour Hersh, in his New Yorker article, said that there are Americans in three locations operating inside Iran. Another point. We know that there is a group in Iraq, a Kurdish group called the Party for Free Life in Kurdistan, that crosses the border from Iraq into Iran, and they have taken credit for killing numbers of revolutionary guard military people. And the interesting part about that is, you know, we tell the Syrians, ‘Don't let that happen. Don't let people come across the border and stir things up in Iraq,’ but we don't seem to be putting any brakes on this unit. So, you know, the evidence is pretty strong that the pattern is being followed.

Now, the question that really follows from that is “Who authorized that?” See, there is no congressional authorization to conduct combat operations against Iran. There are a couple of possibilities. One of them is that it's being justified under the terrorism authorization that occurred in 2001. The problem with that is that you would have to prove a connection to 9/11. I don't think you can do that with Iran. The second possibility is that it's being done under the War Powers Act. I don't want to get too technical, but the War Powers Act would require the President to notify the Congress 60 days after the use of military force or invasion or putting military forces in a new country under that legislation, and the President hasn't notified the Congress that American troops are operating inside Iran. So it's a very serious question about the constitutional framework under which we are now conducting military operations in Iran.

AMY GOODMAN: And, Colonel Sam Gardiner, finally, Israel. Where does Israel fit into this picture?

COL. SAM GARDINER: A year and a half ago I would have said high on the list of possible futures is an Israeli attack by themselves on the Iranian nuclear facility. That has changed. I think Israel has convinced the United States that it is better for the United States to do it by itself, rather than to have Israel do it, in terms of the potential reactions in the Middle East. So I think Israel's policy statements are, you know, it's a world problem that translates to being it is an American problem that has to be dealt with.

For quite some time now we see the Bush Administration focusing its attention on Iran, mainly trying to scare people about its dangerous nuclear ambitions. That's kind of a déjà vu to me. Remember the Bush campaign to convince the general public a war against Hussein was required in order to protect the Western world against terror.

However, as former Colonel Gardiner states, the actual operation had already begun months before Bush started its public propaganda campaign: Operation Southern Focus lasted from June 2002 until the beginning of the invasion in March 2003, and mainly intended for intelligence gathering and degrading Iraq's air defense and communication abilities. Midway 2003 the US army revealed the existence of this operation.

Interesting, since the similarities between then and now are to be called remarkable. According to several sources the US seems to be gathering intelligence in Iran for a period of time now. Which is likely to be taking much more time than it did in Iraq, since Iran is strategically, militarily, and financially much more stronger than Iraq was prior to the invasion. Besides, geographically, Iran forms a much bigger threat, especially to the export of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and it's widely spread strategically important facilities, but more important, its underground facilities that cannot be hit by air raids, which makes an entire operation very complicated.

The War Powers Act allows the Bush Administration to engage in such a clandestine operations, however, already in May the rumor did the rounds the US military had been executing operations in Iran. May we conclude some illegal dirty tricks are being used?

Another remarkable aspect we currently see is that the major powers of this conflict uses terrorist groups for intelligence and sabotage operations. The US cooperates with the terror organization MEK, which hadn't been secured during Operation Freedom (quite contradictory, ''We don't negotiate with terrorists, but we do cooperate). An idea of Wolfowitz, whom was thinking ahead of Iran. By giving MEK militants a new identity the Bush Administration avoided the claim to be cooperating with terrorists, devised by Rumsfeld.

It's clear to me we're heading into the same direction as we did in Iraq. However, selling the story to the public won't be easy. That's why I would be surprised to see another False Flag Operation soon.

Wonderful find. Thanks for sharing. The whole ME is just about ready to turn into one big meat grinder.

The only thing that raises my eyebrows is the "plasma physics research".

Attack Iran and your days of being a super power is over. I hate how Americans say we will liberate the Iranians yet we all remember what you guys did selling chemical and biological weapons to Saddam to kill our own people. You have lost world respect and ours too, get out of the middle east and dissapear.

Welcome back Mehran, haven't seen you on the forum for a long time. But please keep it on topic I don't want this thread to become a flame Iran/US topic.

Thanks a lot, I do appreciate your cooperation

Originally posted by Mdv2
Welcome back Mehran, haven't seen you on the forum for a long time. But please keep it on topic I don't want this thread to become a flame Iran/US topic.

Thanks a lot, I do appreciate your cooperation

My apologies Mdv2. still have bad memories of the war and the country who benefited and used us to fight off each other. I just can't stand when Bush says the Persians deserve democracy and they are better off without the mullahs yet he doesn't understand how American made chemical bombs were being used on Iranian civilians and no we will not gave you flowers once you enter Iran. I can assure you we will try and stab/kill everyone of your troops of what you did to my country. I'm speaking from Tehran by the way

[edit on 22-8-2006 by Mehran]

you did it to yourselves Mehran because of the fanaticism in Iran/Iraq. The two countries never considered anything but the immediate death of their enemy. 'Divide and conquer' perhaps you have heard this phrase?