Did Israeli intelligence fail to recognize Hezbollah's strengths?

We're now entering the fourth week of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, with no quick end in sight. One would have thought that the military superiority of Israel, coupled with Mossad, it's famous intelligence agency, would have quelled the violence and driven Hezbollah back into Syria by now.

But something happened along the way. Certainly, the Israelis do have, and have demonstrated, military superiority, but it seems that sometimes they are firing their missiles at shadows instead of terrorists.

The Israelis have been taken by surprise by both the number of and technological capability of, the weaponry that Hezbollah has used against them. In addition to the standard Katushya rockets, they have used Fajr-3 and Fajr-5 rockets, and Iranian C-802 Noor (Tondar) missiles. In addition, Hezbollah is suspected of possessing Iranian Zelzal missiles and several UAV's.

In addition to the fact that Hezbollah possesses these weapons, the scope of activity of their suppliers - Iran and Syria - seems to have been miscalculated. It now appears that they have been stocking Hezbollah in Lebanon for quite some time now.

Another troubling aspect is the fact that these rockets do not fit into your shirt pocket. Iow, they need to be hidden, along with their launchers. And those responsible must by necessity be active to the point where it is imposible to go undetected. Yet, these weapons' caches remain pretty much a secret to this day.

So, it points to an intelligence failure, imo. How could they have been so unprepared and ill-informed about the enemy right next door? Did Mossad drop the ball on this one?

Mossad seem to be wortless as far as intelligence goes. All those years I was in awe of them and their prowess on getting all those Palestinian terrorists but now that things are out in the open I see it was mostly just hit-or-miss mostly missing the target and hitting innocents. They rock at being hit-men though.

All those years they were stocking the stuff and never even tried to use it to eradicate the jews as they always try to say, but they did use it when it came to defending the country. We both know this invasion and attack was not over a kidnapping because they do this kind of thing all the time between the 2 countries. Israel takes one of theirs, hezbollah takes one of theirs. This time was no different except that Israel had different plans and it wasn't kidnapping people it was to kidnap land and to either move out the people from the land or murder them if they didn't move. They don't want arabs there if they intend on settling as it brings too many hassles.

I was watching a documentary and I was shocked. Hezbollah is not just a ragtag group, they are for all practical purposes an organized army. Its no wonder why the Lebanese regular army would not be able to remove them. They would devastate them.

Originally posted by ThePieMaN
All those years they were stocking the stuff and never even tried to use it to eradicate the jews as they always try to say, but they did use it when it came to defending the country. We both know this invasion and attack was not over a kidnapping because they do this kind of thing all the time between the 2 countries.

This conflict was initiated by Iran to use their Hezbollah pawn to take the focus off of the political showdown over Iran's nuclear weapons program.

Hezbollah is not just a ragtag group, they are for all practical purposes an organized army.

Which makes their occupation of a sovereign nation all the more grievous, and makes the strict adherence to Resolution 1559 all the more important.

Things will hopefully change when the peacekeeping force moves in to evict Hezbollah.

The only reason this thing is in its 4th week is because Israel hasnt gone all out. they have been fighting a PR campaign as much as a battle. They need to stop warning the enemy everytime they attack. They also should have gone right in from day one with about 50-100,000 troops. They should just take of the gloves and go in and mop up and let these guys know they arent going back in the furnaces world opinion be damned.

Originally posted by bombers8

Things will hopefully change when the peacekeeping force moves in to evict Hezbollah.

I think this action proves even moreso that hezbollah is necessary for the protection of the Border between Israel and Lebanon. Lebanons army would be helpless against Israel in any future agressions made by Israel. This much is very obvious. If some other group were to pull the same stunt and Israel decided to invade because of it , Lebanon would be made to suffer again. I think what needs to be done is that Israel needs to cease all agressions towards the Palestinians in israel and Lebanon and there won't be a need for Hizbollahs or Islamic Jihadists. Once they start treating them like humans and as an independant state instead of playing at giving them independence then Israel will have no worries.

Hezbollah is the cause of the problem, not the solution. It was them that initiated the current hostilities; even the UN recognized this by passing Resolution 1559.

There is no basis for the notion that Hezbollah is protecting Lebanon against unprovoked Israeli aggression. Quite the opposite is true.

The Israeli soldiers may not even have been in Israeli territory. While it sounds good to pretend poor innocent little Israel was shockingly attacked out of the blue, it's simply not true - the area along the Lebanese border has been the site of a constant low intensity conflict since the Israelis "pulled out" of Lebanon in 2000 after their last adventure there, where they were essentially chased out by a Hezbollah guerilla campaign.

They never really pulled out either, Israeli troops have been launching patrols across the border into Lebanese territory on a regular basis, including taking potshots at Lebanese civilians. From the Christian Science Montor:

Since its withdrawal of occupation forces from southern Lebanon in May 2000, Israel has violated the United Nations-monitored "blue line" on an almost daily basis, according to UN reports. Hizbullah's military doctrine, articulated in the early 1990s, states that it will fire Katyusha rockets into Israel only in response to Israeli attacks on Lebanese civilians or Hizbullah's leadership; this indeed has been the pattern.

In the process of its violations, Israel has terrorized the general population, destroyed private property, and killed numerous civilians. This past February, for instance, 15-year-old shepherd Yusuf Rahil was killed by unprovoked Israeli cross-border fire as he tended his flock in southern Lebanon. Israel has assassinated its enemies in the streets of Lebanese cities and continues to occupy Lebanon's Shebaa Farms area, while refusing to hand over the maps of mine fields that continue to kill and cripple civilians in southern Lebanon more than six years after the war supposedly ended. What peace did Hizbullah shatter?

As for Israeli intellegence, well if they believe what they're saying on the news, I'd say they have an extremely distorted picture of the situation. I heard an Israeli government official on TV today claiming that Hezbollah was "70 to 90% destroyed" - the same day Hezbollah launched over 230 rockets into Israel, the most in a single day so far. Israel is also saying IDF troops have now moved "two or three" miles into Lebanon - not very impressive considering the forces they're committing to the conflict. It seems to me like their ground campaign is getting bogged down by an unexpected degree of resistance.

I think Israel is making a major mistake here. Mounting civilian deaths in Lebanon are turning global and even US public opinion against them. At the same time, they're clearly not accomplishing their goal of defanging Hezbollah. If anything, they're helping them portray themselves as the sole courageous defenders of defenseless Lebanon against brutal Israeli aggression.

Really, despite all the propaganda from all sides involved, it seems clear to me so far this has been a political victory for Hezbollah, and an embarrassment for both Israel and the US. Too bad, because in the long run Hezbollah's acendancy is going to be terrible for Lebanon. Traditionally Lebanon had been one of the few places in the Mideast to openly embrace modernity. Now Hezbollah's brand of Shiia Islamism is likely to gain more influence there.

Originally posted by xmotex
Israel is also saying IDF troops have now moved "two or three" miles into Lebanon - not very impressive considering the forces they're committing to the conflict. It seems to me like their ground campaign is getting bogged down by an unexpected degree of resistance.
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Really, despite all the propaganda from all sides involved, it seems clear to me so far this has been a political victory for Hezbollah, and an embarrassment for both Israel and the US. Too bad, because in the long run Hezbollah's acendancy is going to be terrible for Lebanon. Traditionally Lebanon had been one of the few places in the Mideast to openly embrace modernity. Now Hezbollah's brand of Shiia Islamism is likely to gain more influence there.

I have to agree with you here. I think everyone is surprised with the degree of success that Hezbollah has enjoyed because of the resistance they have put up. Part of it has to be due to an intelligence failure by Mossad.

I can understand getting bogged down while fighting in the cities, but I don't understand the problem with these entrenched bunkers on the hillsides.

Originally posted by bombers8
I have to agree with you here. I think everyone is surprised with the degree of success that Hezbollah has enjoyed because of the resistance they have put up. Part of it has to be due to an intelligence failure by Mossad.

I can understand getting bogged down while fighting in the cities, but I don't understand the problem with these entrenched bunkers on the hillsides.

Tunnels, caves and all other manner of sneaky back passages exist all along the border region. Hezbollah, whilst being well equipped and trained, know they cannot stand toe-to-toe with Israel with all that Airpower against them. They fight classic Geurilla battles, ie; you only fight when you know you can win, or at the very least, get away after strinking.

This is what the IDF is facing.

They can push so far without seeing anything close to suicide-goat. But then, all of a sudden, the Hezboolah chaps jump out from behind rocks and out of caves and nail a tank or two, before dissapearing again.

The IDF has severely underestimated Hezbollah or were too arrogant about themselves. These guys have thousands of well-trained, well-armed soldiers who are sticking it to Israel.

Hey pieman,

Please read this quote: "All those years they were stocking the stuff and never even tried to use it...."

What exactly does over 1000 unprovoked missle attacks against civilian targets mean to you? This occured after Israel withdrew from occupied land in a "land for peace" deal. What does the attacks from the Gaza strip after withdrawing from that territory in yet another "land for peace" deal mean to you?

It's not like Israel is doing this arbitrarily- If your family had been the ones killed in an unprovoked missle attack, I doubt your views would be the same.

This does not excuse Israel from killing civilians- I am merely trying to shed some light which is not being examined on the subject.

G.Houtchens
armchair coach
amateur historian

Originally posted by Houtchens
Hey pieman,

Please read this quote: "All those years they were stocking the stuff and never even tried to use it...."

What exactly does over 1000 unprovoked missle attacks against civilian targets mean to you? This occured after Israel withdrew from occupied land in a "land for peace" deal. What does the attacks from the Gaza strip after withdrawing from that territory in yet another "land for peace" deal mean to you?

It's not like Israel is doing this arbitrarily- If your family had been the ones killed in an unprovoked missle attack, I doubt your views would be the same.

This does not excuse Israel from killing civilians- I am merely trying to shed some light which is not being examined on the subject.

G.Houtchens
armchair coach
amateur historian

Ametuer Historian indeed... Those 1000 rocket attacks came from Gaza, not Hezbollah. Don't confuse the issue.