posted on Aug, 4 2006 @ 10:39 PM
Civil War in Russia- it will not happen- no way possible. If you are thinking of Chechnya- it is a tiny separatist republic that has been anti-Russia
for a very long time. Otherwise Russian nationalism is quickly rising, and if anything the country and its allies (Serbia, Belarus, Armenia,
Kazakhstan) are uniting. If you are concerned with ethnic divide- this is nothing new. Russia has encompased dozens of ethnicities and many
religions throughout history. One way or another they got along. Russia has over 60 unique ethnicities and regional divides. Russian politics are
not very stable yet (its democracy is only 15 years old), but there is no threat about internal conflict. The worst thing that could happen, is an
anti-US president gains power, and plays off Russian interests against those of US. A Cold War is far more likely with China anytime soon than with
Russia.
About Russia and US being allies in the future- unlikely but not impossible. Friendship is possible if some worldwide event unites them behind a
common cause. The War On Terrorism is based too much on improving US influence and gaining new strategic allies, than on actually destroying the
supposed terrorists- so this won't work. Plus US is still denying Russia entry into the WTO. In turn Russia looks to new allies for trade
relations.
Machiavelli stated that unless there is a common enemy, two strong powers should and could not be true allies. Each has far too much power and
interest in improving their own influence, at the expense of the other.