Impact of a nuclear bomb in New York?

What would be the knock on effects to the economy/society of America if a small-medium nuclear warhead (say 20kt) detonated in New York?????


Would the US economy survive it?

Some thought to get the ball rolling:

Social security budget?

Banks, homing insurance and medical insurance companies go bankrupt overnight leaving thousands unemployed?

Cost of clean-up operation?

How many people would have to be relocated and what impact would that have on house prices given that the migrants couldn't sell their properties in the effected area?



[edit on 20-7-2006 by planeman]

I don't think anybody actually knows exactly what would happen. And I know FEMA wouldn't be the best response. But I'll give you my best guess as to what would happen.

My guess is that the US economy would survive. If we loose NYC than most likely Chicago will take it's place as the leading economic center. That isn't to say however that we wouldn't suffer a very large depression. It would be one that we could most likely recover from, but it would be nasty while it lasted. Personally I doubt it would be as bad as the 1930's Great Depression since the rest of the nation would still be relatively intact. But it might get close.

I'd say the social security problem would depend on how many people are killed vs. the amount of people left disabled. If the bomb kills the majority of the people outright then it might not be as bad. But if the majority of the people survive but are crippled as a result then we might see a social security disaster.

The problem of insurance companies and banks going bankrupt so quickly is a huge problem no matter what happens when that bomb explodes. Thousands would definatly be left unemployed. The big question is how many of those employees would simply be dead.

The cost of the cleanup would probably be more than that of any other disaster in history. We'd literally have to demolish anything in the blast radius not destroyed outright due to the fact that those structures will be structurially unsound, and irradiated. If the bomb explodes in the air then it'll probably level a lot more structures, thus raising the initial costs. However in the long run it would be better since an air bursting bomb generates much less fallout than one that explodes near the ground. My guess is that a 20kt detonated in NYC would be detonated by a terrorist (anything larger would probably be by somebody with better funding), thus it'd probably be detonated on the ground. Unless of course it is somehow taken up into a skyscraper and detonated from high up. In which case a rooftop bomb might be something to be concerned about.

As for the number of people relocated, I'd say anybody actually living in Manhattan (logical detonation point). Whether or not the rest of the city would need relocation would probably depend on the amount of fallout.


In conclusion I'd say it'd be devestating. But in the end I think the severity comes down to how much fallout is launched into the air, and how much of that is blocked by the buildings in the city.

Here is a source for ny NYC blast of 150 Kiloton

This is for 1 Kiloton Nuke

SOURCE

1 KT - Effective Range for Blast Energy
350m LD50 11m/sec - LD50 means 50% mortality (1148.29 feet = 0.2174792 mile)
550m ED50 4.3m/sec - ED50 would affect 50% population (1804.46 feet = 0.3417538 mile)
750m Penetrating Wounds 55m/sec (2460.63 feet = 0.4660284 mile)

1 KT- Blast Energy and Static Overpressure
150m LD50 50psi - LD50 means 50% mortality (492.126 feet = 0.0932057 mile)
300m ED50 20psi - ED50 would affect 50% population (984.252 feet = 0.1864114 mile)
700m Eardrum Rupture 5 psi (2296.59 feet = 0.4349602 mile)

1 KT -Safe Separation Distance for Eye Injuries
Weapon Yield - 1 KT
Detonation Altitude-300 Meters
Personnel Altitude - Sea Level
Daytime Visibility - 46 km (28.5830748 mile)
Retinal Burns - 16.7 km (10.3768989 mile)
Flash Blindness - 5.9 km (3.66609 miles)

1 KT - Effective Range for Thermal Energy Infrared
700m - 7 cal/cm2 (2296.59 feet = 0.4349602 mile)
800m - 4 cal/cm2 (2624.67 feet = 0.4970966 mile)
1200m - 2 cal/cm2 (3937.01 feet = 0.7456458 mile)

[edit on 20-7-2006 by imbalanced]

[edit on 20-7-2006 by imbalanced]

A very good starting point Cyberdude, plenty of food for thought.

Re relocation, I would assume that the fallout radius would be at least that of Chenobyl - just a guess. Even if they didn't forcibly relocate Maryland, imagine anyone wanting to live there???? And if those people did want to move they'd have to sell their property at rock bottom prices and end up in negative equity still owing the morgage which no doubt the recievers of the banks would chase aggressively given their own economic woes.

I guess we have to find some data on NYC and fallout from a 20kt nuclear bomb and try to work out how many people and businesses would be affected.
-Edit: Thanks Imbalanced. - though I shouldn't be smiling.


BTW, 20kt is about the size of a bomb you could practically put in a cruise missile.

[edit on 20-7-2006 by planeman]

Its not just New York, it is the Stock Exchange that trades world wide. It is real estateand insurance records. It is the NYMEX exchange, the currency exchange, gold reserves, and brain trust for that region. It is 10 million people dead dying. It is the port of New York, a very large point of shipping for business.

Then the demoralyzing effect of losing New York. the Shock factor if you will of how this could happen. a depression..? i doubt america would recover within 30 years, and much of the world financial markets would take as long also.

We would not go into a depression, and to think so is dumb.

New Orleans got hit hard, the whole city destroyed, nearly 2 thousand died, and rebuilding it is costing many many billions of dollars, and will take many more years until its a normal city, meaning it would be all cleaned up, busted up buildings torn down to make way for new ones.

I know a nuke in NYC would be on another level entirely, and its likely that tens of thousands would die instantly, and the overall death toll I would guesstimate to be around 100k, But theres no reason to think that the nation as a whole wouldn't get back on its feet, dust itself off, and go decimate whatever country gave that terrorist a nuclear warhead.

[edit on 20-7-2006 by Murcielago]

Yeah but the mere fact that a nuke hit NYC at that point, would mean instant global meltdown, as countries went into a panic not knowing how the US would respond. And then there is the response itself which could range from nothing to nuking all of Mecca or more. And there is also the issue of that if NYC was nuked, how China and Russia would act, and that could range from sitting and guaging the American response to deciding to take advantage of the situation somehow. Who knows, they might all just scurry into their bunkers and launch.

Any way you slice it, it's a stink sandwich.

If New York was hit, forget about just the US economy, most of the world's economies would crash as well, as toolman has explained better (for once I agree with him). Not to mention the US response. If it was done by an Islamic nation it could range from decimating the whole country as well as destroying Mecca, to destroying the Middle East, and inducing martial law in the US. And oil prices, swoosh, it would be like 200+ a barrel. Let's just say it would be a huge disaster for the entire world, not just the US. And if someone did bomb New York they would be absolutely stupid and cruel.

The stupid and cruel bit goes without saying.

We really should leave religion out of this. Let's stick purely to the social and economic impact on US. That way it will be less of a flame war.

Had you asked me prior to 9/11 what the impact would be I would have given an outlook much like that of an apocalyptic novel. Post 9/11 however people have learned a thing or two about how to build their networks and protect their data. Before the September attacks only the most critical of data was backed up to off-site locations, now disaster recovery is (or at least should be) at the head of any IT department that is operating in a major city. Some might be lacking in implementation but others (such as the NYSE who knows just how critical their role is) have moved to systems far better designed than their pre-9/11 counterparts.

The jolt to the already precariously balanced economy would probably send things far askew driving prices in the surrounding areas litteraly insane as people stocked up and generally freaked out. Just think of the run on water, plastic and duct tape after the anthrax and H5N1 scares. Prices would shoot up all across the board, not just in terms of dollars barrel of oil but water, food, anything that people buy up in large quantities would see extreme scarcity.

Alot of the outcome on the economy would depend on the number of business crippled due to poor disaster recovery plans and the actions of both the federal government and the fed himself (provided its still Bernanke) to ensure our money situation didnt spiral out of control.

Nuclear Weapon Effects Calculator

And the density is 26,403/mi² for new york city. Even a small blast would destroy a large part of the city

The New York metropolitan area had an estimated gross metropolitan product of $901.3 billion in 2004, larger than the GDP of India and slightly less than that of Canada. The city's economy accounts for the majority of the economic activity in the states of New Jersey and New York.

en.wikipedia.org...

I would think it would at least be as bad as the '29 stockcrash.



[edit on 21-7-2006 by chinawhite]

Alot of people here are underestimating how important the US Stock Exchange is in NY city. It's been said (I've seen this on Discovery Channel stated by a former General who used to head an EMP development program for the military) that if there was an EMP strike above NYC, the immediate effect would be the collapse of the economy. That's the immediate effect, not to say it can't be returned back to normal, but it will be heavily effected.

Helig, less than you know, people aren't as prepared as you're giving them credit.

The US Still hasn't completely recovered from the Depressions of '29 and the 80's. Imagine if a nuke hit the stock exchange, wiped out completely.

And Murcielago, have you ever been to NYC? I have, I live 20 miles east of it, in an open area with elevation no higher than 20 feet... above sea level, if they get hit, I'm getting hit too. There are more people per square mile than in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, over 2 million people commute into Manhattan each day. Hit it in rush hour, well death toll will exceed a mere 100k. Easily. It is so dense in NYC.

But what Tool said is right, I'd have to agree with him. The world economies would be hit hard if downtown NYC was hit, no other city in the country has the Stock Exchange, only NYC. Los Angelas may have the biggest port in the country, but NYC sees more money come through it's buyers and sellers.

Shattered OUT...

Originally posted by ShatteredSkies
Alot of people here are underestimating how important the US Stock Exchange is in NY city. It's been said (I've seen this on Discovery Channel stated by a former General who used to head an EMP development program for the military) that if there was an EMP strike above NYC, the immediate effect would be the collapse of the economy. That's the immediate effect, not to say it can't be returned back to normal, but it will be heavily effected.

Helig, less than you know, people aren't as prepared as you're giving them credit.

The US Still hasn't completely recovered from the Depressions of '29 and the 80's. Imagine if a nuke hit the stock exchange, wiped out completely.

And Murcielago, have you ever been to NYC? I have, I live 20 miles east of it, in an open area with elevation no higher than 20 feet... above sea level, if they get hit, I'm getting hit too. There are more people per square mile than in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, over 2 million people commute into Manhattan each day. Hit it in rush hour, well death toll will exceed a mere 100k. Easily. It is so dense in NYC.

But what Tool said is right, I'd have to agree with him. The world economies would be hit hard if downtown NYC was hit, no other city in the country has the Stock Exchange, only NYC. Los Angelas may have the biggest port in the country, but NYC sees more money come through it's buyers and sellers.

Shattered OUT...

Several big banks have moved their trading floors out of New York. And whilst I agree that people aren't as prepared as they would claim, Helig has a valid point - that in general data back-up is far better than it was. The question is how well.

I remember when people were trying to claim their data was lost in 9/11 when that was often a lie.

Originally posted by planeman
Several big banks have moved their trading floors out of New York. And whilst I agree that people aren't as prepared as they would claim, Helig has a valid point - that in general data back-up is far better than it was. The question is how well.

1. banks may move their desks out of the area but the trading is still done at the exchange and that is located in NYC.

2. I'm sure there are contingency planse for all kinds of doomsdays but a nuke in NYC would bring the world's economy to a standstill. No trading for an extended period of time while the exchanges are in new locations and new empoyees are hired to take the place of all the dead ones. These new employees are not going to be very good at what they do so there will be a learning curve period. Add to that the general instability of the world wide markets as everyone tries to figure out what will happen next. The US will be focussed on the retaliation aspect (the who did it, how, how do we strike back etc) and the clean up, rebuilding and repopulating of the region. We won't be too concerned with the global economic environment so those nations that need our business to survive might find themselves in a bit of a pinch. Bases around the globe might be shuttered or minimized to concentrate on the issues at home (money saving measures along with keeping order). We'd be a bit more of an isolationist nation and that won't be helpfull to the outside world.

The US would survive. It woud take a while but the country will get back on it's feet. The global economy will survive. It too will take time.

Who knows, what rises from the destruction might be a better, stronger nation. I'm not asking for the nuke to happen. I live in the city and, while I didn't mention it above, the loss of my life and my family would be devastating to the intergalactic community. Y'all might understand one day.

Read the 1 kiloton effects link from the first post. Very horrible prospect indeed.
If you then consider dozens of multi megaton warheads raining down all over, its an unimaginabley horrific scenario.
Its difficult to understand how some can speak of nuking this or that so lightly,
and how they can take pleasure in bragging their nation could do it!
The thought that it EVER might become reality is truley terrifying, and begs the imagine why the worlds leaders would ever see the point of it.
If your nuked, thats it! same for anyone, what point nuking in return?
its truly M.A.D !

uhh, a nuke attack on NYC would trigger a nuclear war.

First, we must determine the yield of the nuclear weapon. Then we must determine where in new york city it was used at, and at what altitude.

I understand by this thread you most likely mean as to what would happen if NYC was destroyed by a nuclear device.

The U.S. economy is dependant on stock exchanges. Wall St. is based in NYC. If it were lost, and data was not backed up, the results would destroy the American economy or cripple it.

However, all stock exchanges are baced up in several classified locations around the world, one of which we know is in Malaysia however most other locations are classified.

Buyers and sellers from companies would most likely die in the explosion, so companies would have to assign temporary workers into an exhange in Chicago or some other area.

I have to go now so I'll go more indepth later.

Originally posted by NegativeBeef
uhh, a nuke attack on NYC would trigger a nuclear war.

And it took you how long to figure this out?

Sorry, but that's just the most common sense thing, I think we all acknowledge that the immediate effect would be a full nuclear counter-attack, but I think the original question posted refers to what would happen here in America and in NY? The effects of it on our economy and such. Not what course of actions America would take to retaliate.

Shattered OUT...

It would depend on who did it, we wouldn't know for several hours.

Originally posted by Night
It would depend on who did it, we wouldn't know for several hours.

There aren't that many people who have these capabilities, so the wide spectrum is narrowed down to just a few targets. Now, if the warhead was delivered and detonated by ground and not from the air, that's a whole different story. But if it rained down from the heavens, you can find out where it came from.

Shattered OUT...