Anatomy of the Next War

Originally posted by The Vagabond
I should have specified time period. I am talking about WWII. The soviets had begun to force industrialization after the revolution, but the USSR was still, to a certain extent, stuck in the previous century during the world wars. Further into the cold war they certainly advanced, but they were always more about quantity than quality.

Roger that.

Neither their economy nor their military ever emphasized quality and precision on the level that Germany has.

German engineering in da houze.

I think in a post-industrial society, it would be mighty difficult to wage anything larger than a medium-sized short war. What gets lost in all the talk about technology, weapons, and the Just War is just how expensive a war really is. As the First World countries slowly lose industrial capacity, places like the United States will not be able to sustain high-intensity combat operations for long periods of time. Basically its get in, get the job done, and get out, and that's where what you pointed out about post-industrial countries not fighting each other head-on comes from.

The bigger question to me is, is that a good thing? Large and/or long wars are never a good thing. But that does not automatically mean a small war is a better alternative. For one, the smaller the war, the less caution and restraint would be exercised by the political leaders.

As Mr. Dunnigan said, the next war will take years to prepare for. And while advances in information technology have made war a bit easier to execute, that ease only gives even less margin for error.

I'd like to build on what Vagabond said about the tender state of First World armies. My one concern for the future is the lack of funding endurance and potential crisis in leadership that he mentioned. Let me use one example.

I'm doing research for a new book that I hope to start writing late this winter. I'm looking at a clash between the U.S. (and allies) vs. China. Without any doubt, China is still an industrial power, which means they will wage war accordingly. This could result in a greater logistical endurance on their part. If their nationalism continues to rise as ours disipates, we could see few-er leadership crisis in their ranks.

I still have loads of research to sift, and lots more to get. Even so, framed in the context of what we are talking about...I worry. Bear in mind that none of this hypothetical accounts for Russia.

Thanks to everyone who kept this thread going. I guess we're done here, and it was good. I hope to see more discussions like this in the future.