"Stronger China poses no threat to other nations"

Responding to remarks made by Canada-based Kanwa Defence Review analyst Andrei Pinkov that Chinese military strength, now witnessing rapid expansion, will overtake that of the United States in 20 years, this author said: "I, as a soldier, now would like to thank you for your good wishes for the development of Chinese military forces. But your remarks, if meant to be a serious prediction of the balance of Chinese and US military might, are a miscalculation because China will not be able to catch up with the United States in 100 years, let alone 20 years. Moreover, this race will never happen. US military forces will not remain at a standstill and China will never embark on the road of becoming a military superpower." continues chinadaily.com.cn

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[edit on 7-7-2006 by sanctum]

it doesnt matter if china becomes the same as the USA in 20 years the USA tech aint gonna stand still in 20 years the USA would still be 30 years more advance then china so who cares USA, USA ,USA

[edit on 7-7-2006 by dabomb]

China is a very fast developing country, one that US is depending for economic reasons.

China is taking advantage of the needs of the US financially . . .

China doesn't need an army any more to defit the mighty US. . .

They can give the blow economically.

This is the new China and the new type of war.

[edit on 7-7-2006 by marg6043]

I disagree.

The more China develops economically, the more resources it is going to need to sustain itself. When resources start drying up, military action is the next step to obtaining more.

Its the oldest story in the book on human politics. Every empire, nation, and power in the history of civilization has played this part. There is no such thing as a "new" kind of war.

usa concentrates mainly on tech now, and will just get more advanced.

Originally posted by marg6043
China is a very fast developing country, one that US is depending for economic reasons.

China is taking advantage of the needs of the US financially . . .

China doesn't need an army any more to defit the mighty US. . .

They can give the blow economically.

This is the new China and the new type of war.

[edit on 7-7-2006 by marg6043]

and how are they gonna give us a blow economically? are they gonna stop trading with us? why would they wanna stop trading with us?

China owns some of US debt. If China gave it back, America would fall. But both need eachother currently due to an unstable World economy. China is not that powerful yet to flex its muscle.

China already has the economic power to defeat America. But China is only a threat to India, both are gunning for the role of the next global superpower. Both have rapid economies that are growing very fast and India has the military might as well.

The more China develops economically, the more resources it is going to need to sustain itself. When resources start drying up, military action is the next step to obtaining more.

In a nutshell, you are correct. Take a look at European Empires, The British (largest Empire the World has ever seen), Spanish, French, Dutch, Germany, etc all expanded when they needed resources to maintain.

China is currently "buying up" Africa, so the push for resources has already gone. But the question really is, will China expand into West Asia, if it needs resources?

They own only app. 350 of 5000 billion US foreign debt. Also they cannot
"give it back", they can just sell it and it would have very little effect on US economy. China needs US more than US China. Their whole economy would collapse without export to US - its 300 billion$ yearly, much more than their whole economic growth. And US doesnt need cheap Chinesse goods - there was much less import from China in 90ties and there was no problem with prices.

The problem is . . . that . . . while we have a deficit and a big one . . . China doesn't have one.

They have money to burn and burning they are around the world . . . US is too preoccupied with wars.. . . and big US corporations that are the ones running our nation are to occupied with profits. . .

The amazing, flexible and unbelievable dollar can hold only so much. . . the fate of the American dollar is right now like it or not in foreign hands.

I'd agree that China seems likely to displace the US as premier world power within a few decades. China seems to much better run than the US, which is led by fatuous morons. Instead of wasting their treasury in pointless foreign military adventures, they are steadily building their economy and infrastructure to become the unquestioned economic power on the planet.

For all the hysteria over China's military modernization, they do not seem as obsessed with military hardware as the US, decreasing the size of their military at the same time they modernize it. Meanwhile the US bankrupts itself in pointless failed resource grabs like Iraq, while China gets it's oil the old fashioned way - they buy it.

I can only hope China's increasing prosperity pushes the Chinese state away from their fetish for authoritarianism (authoritarianism begets inefficiency anyway), and that they manage to avoid the imperial hubris that is eating away at the US's soft power like a cancer.





[edit on 7/9/06 by xmotex]

Originally posted by marg6043
China is a very fast developing country, one that US is depending for economic reasons.

China is taking advantage of the needs of the US financially . . .

China doesn't need an army any more to defit the mighty US. . .

They can give the blow economically.

This is the new China and the new type of war.

[edit on 7-7-2006 by marg6043]

China depends on foreign investments. If there is a war with China, or a conflict, the government could enact a tariff on their goods. Corporations (which provide lots and lots of jobs there) will look elsewhere quickly. Even if that means Africa or other poor countries. Imports from China will decrease substantially which their whole economy is based on. So yeah, would we suffer? Sure, but we wouldn't crash. China would suffer A LOT more.

I don't understand why all these people make it seem like China is some uncorruptable super & economic power in which everyone needs, especially America. China needs all these people just as much, if not more than these other countries need China.

The operative question being "if there is a war with China"... but China doesn't seem to be staking their future on a war, but on developing a powerful and robust economy. The Right here in the US makes a lot of noise about China's military modernization, but their military is actually shrinking in size considerably (if becoming more effective) as their economy grows.

They've been watching the Japanese I think, who have managed to become one of the world's great powers while essentially having no offensive military power (the JSDF is quite a powerful force actually, but it's geared entirely for defensive operations).

While we sit around emptying our treasury paying for a massive and essentially useless military, one geared entirely for offense and barely capable of actually defending the US proper, they are reinvesting their money into their technological and industrial infrastructure and their population's skillsets.

While we're graduating tons of students in fields like "ethnic studies" and equally useless MBA's, destined for careers in McDonalds or redundant middle management positions, the're matriculating tons of engineers and scientists, people who actually build things and move their economy forward. Eventually, they're going to overtake us.




[edit on 7/9/06 by xmotex]

Originally posted by xmotex
The operative question being "if there is a war with China"... but China doesn't seem to be staking their future on a war, but on developing a powerful and robust economy.

They've been watching the Japanese I think, who have managed to become one of the world's great powers while essentially having no offensive military power (the JSDF is quite a powerful force actually, but it's geared entirely for defensive operations).

While we sit around emptying our treasury paying for a massive and essentially useless military, one geared entirely for offense and barely capable of actually defending the US proper, they are reinvesting their money into their technological and industrial infrastructure and their population's skillsets.

While we're graduating tons of students in fields like "ethnic studies" and equally useless MBA's, destined for careers in McDonalds or redundant middle management positions, the're matriculating tons of engineers and scientists, people who actually build things and move their economy forward. Eventually, they're going to overtake us.

[edit on 7/9/06 by xmotex]

First off, they are developing their military extremely quickly, probably for an offensive campaign eventually [like Taiwan]. They will not be like a Japan (which is also developing the military now with American support), and they will certainly not be like some Asian Switzerland, lol. If anything, they may become the Asian WW2 Germany. Just a little question, do you think Japan is now developing their military quickly because of North Korea?! hehe

Also, America is starting to look to Africa. There have been many possible ways that America could instate a stable government in Somalia and Sudan that is pro-US and pro-US corporations (not through occuptaion as that just would not work), so they can create a "second China". Not to mention get oil imports.

Also, China, like America, is totally dependent on natural resources. Yet many don't seem to get, if America really really has no other ways to get oil and other resources, we have enough to sustain ourselves for a while, unlike China. And people ignore the fact that over 3/4 of the Chinese people are living in extreme poverty. With health problems on the rise, such as AIDS. And many other internal problems (heard about the 25,000 uprisings in 2005??)

There are huge obstacles, and the American government won't just allow China to rise higher than everyone else out of good "friendship" with them. So who knows if they will "overtake" anyone in the coming years.

[edit on 9-7-2006 by RetinoidReceptor]

[edit on 9-7-2006 by RetinoidReceptor]

The dangers of US trade deficit are more serious that many wants to acknowledge, US can not compete with the unfair practices and cheap labor that Emerging and economically fast growing nations are using . China and India are the best example when countries start to use their poor classes to gain money.

US Corporations that are all for profits can not stay away from the goods of cheap labor that these emerging economical powers offer.

The rising trade deficits must be financed by increased borrowing from foreigners, who so far have been happy to sell us their products and hold U.S. dollars in payment which they invest in U.S. stock, bonds and other assets.

The problem is that when these countries that are only happy to serve the mighty US right now for profits and vice versa have never been friendly to our might . . . eventually the biggest blow that they can do to our nation is . . . Reduce their dependency on the dollar for other foreign currency and the value of the dollar, US, stocks and bonds will fall . the corporations that runs our country careless of what would happen because they also hold their investments in other countries.

American consumer does not support American goods anymore and our nations big conglomerate of sellers of goods depend on foreign made goods to make their profits.

American consumers continued their love affair with all things foreign, pushing imports of cars, foreign food products and other consumer goods to all-time highs in 2005.

Our economy has never been in such precarious situation as today and still Americans believe that everything is peachy.

Wake up and get a check on realities.

U.S. Trade Deficit Hits All-Time High
www.steel.org.../CM/ContentDisplay.cfm&CONTENTID=12755




[edit on 9-7-2006 by marg6043]

Originally posted by marg6043
The dangers of US trade deficit are more serious that many wants to acknowledge, US can not compete with the air practices and cheap labor that Emerging and economically fast growing nations are using . China and India are the best example when countries start to use their poor classes to gain money.

US Corporations that are all for profits can not stay away from the goods of cheap labor that these emerging economical powers offer.

The rising trade deficits must be financed by increased borrowing from foreigners, who so far have been happy to sell us their products and hold U.S. dollars in payment which they invest in U.S. stock, bonds and other assets.

The problem is that when these countries that are only happy to serve the mighty US right now for profits and vice versa have never been friendly to our might . . . eventually the biggest blow that they can do to our nation is . . . Reduce their dependency on the dollar for other foreign currency and the value of the dollar, US, stocks and bonds will fall . the corporations that runs our country careless of what would happen because they also hold their investments in other countries.

American consumer does not support American goods anymore and our nations big conglomerate of sellers of goods depend on foreign made goods to make their profits.

American consumers continued their love affair with all things foreign, pushing imports of cars, foreign food products and other consumer goods to all-time highs in 2005.

Our economy has never been in such precarious situation as today and still Americans believe that everything is peachy.

Wake up and get a check on realities.

U.S. Trade Deficit Hits All-Time High
www.steel.org.../CM/ContentDisplay.cfm&CONTENTID=12755

There is no debate about this. But many people seem to ignore these other countries total dependence on foreign investments as well. Think about it, if the dollar goes down, and the yuan goes up, do you REALLY think American corporations will be doing business there? The products prices will rise, salaries will rise, and the American people won't buy those things anymore, so they will search for other places very quickly, and instate their corporations and low wages again elsewhere.

It would be bad if the dollar went down for all these developing countries. That means their growth rate, and the huge amount of jobs provided by corporations will be taken out from them.

First off, they are developing their military extremely quickly, probably for an offensive campaign eventually [like Taiwan].

Look again. While their military is certainly modernizing, it's also shrinking.

Their expenditures on their military, and the particular systems they are investing in, don't seem to reflect any preparation for an offensive campaign. Where are the long range bombers? Where are the aircraft carriers and large amphibious vessels necessary for an offensive campaign? Where is the buildup in airlift capacity?

Instead they're developing and purchasing subs (to defend their coastline), destroyers (ditto), and short range fighters.

China's policy towards Taiwan is basically one of establishing a credible threat of taking offensive action should Taiwan attempt to declare formal independence, and just enough capacity within their own sphere to make the US think twice before interfering. But it seems primarily to be a deterrent capacity aimed at bluffing the Taiwanese into accepting peaceful reuinification. They aren't going to get a hold of Taiwan's semiconductor industry by bombing the crap out of it. Things seem to be going their way, too, with Chen on the ropes politically.

And yes, Japan is building up their military, but they don't seem to be building an offensive force by any means. Simply reinforcing their defensive abilities. Again, they are building a deterrent against the presumed Chinese "threat" - which I think mostly exists in their imagination.

I don't think the Chinese are planning their own East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere any time soon. Instead they seem to be making a grab for increasing their soft power. Look at their current wooing of the South Koreans for a hint as to what they're really aiming for.

Actually many experts believe that what is going on with China is a good thing, funny . . .

The question should be How much power US have on China

m T-shirts to T-bonds

Beijing, not Washington, increasingly takes the decisions that affect workers, companies, financial markets and economies everywhere

While this may be good for other countries around the world perhaps is not that so with our economy here in the US.

www.economist.com...

Bush visit and the Asia Pacific regional summit in South Korea

Even Bush can see that China has become a threat economically due to unfair labor practices.

www.bbc.co.uk...

In the West, we do hear an awful lot of speculation and conjecture regarding Chinese future devolpment. A great deal of this rhetoric portrays a forthcoming behemoth with the potential to dominate and consume us all. Can we actually be sure that this will be the outcome?

None of us are actually on the ground in China, so we have no idea how the Chinese people feel. Stories often emerge concerning the so-called expanding middle classes in China. It could be perceived that with increased monetary wealth comes the expectation of certain 'freedoms' and standards. Is China able to remain a cohesive unit as it develops?

Human rights, workers rights, political reform, corruption...these are all issues which China MUST deal with in order for them to fully develop. Some analysts have said that upheaval, perhaps even revolution, may await China in the very near future. What the result would be, who knows. But I am quite sure that if China was to convulse, it would be felt globally.

A nice example I heard given of the influence of China, was from an economist on the radio who asserted that the reason mortgages are so cheap and house prices so high in the UK was because interest rates were so low due to the fact that China held as many US bonds as it did. (I may have got the minutiae wrong, but it was along those lines)

To be honest, I would imagine that, in the short term, a stronger China is indeed desirable. The current level of instability in the world does not need to be added to. Big trouble in big China would affect us all.

I am on the ground in China, have lived here several years.

Marg has the right questions and points; American corporations are gutting the american economy, with the help of the gullible consumer. the Bush administration has replaced sound economic policy with completely inept management, it will force change upon America very soon.


China will not undergo a revolution, because it already had them; the agricultural revolution, the economic revolution, and the social revolution.

India has been buying time, but they will need to undergo their economic revolution before they can continue on their path. India's economy is still set in the partial caste system, which conflicts with economic progress. it will be forced soon enough.

The average Chinese person is quite happy with their lot in life. For revolution to occur people must be angry or frustrated with the status Quo. in China this is not the case. each day brings more work, more opportunity, more wealth and luxury. I see it each day.

China is signing trade treaties with nations the world over, while the United States continues creating unsustainable situations in the middle east.
The USA spends a billion per day in iraq, while China profits a billion per day in Africa, Europe, South and Central America and Asia.

what is the logical outcome? one nation invests in its future, the other wastes its Capital on a war it cannot win.

Originally posted by toolman

I am on the ground in China, have lived here several years.

Marg has the right questions and points; American corporations are gutting the american economy, with the help of the gullible consumer. the Bush administration has replaced sound economic policy with completely inept management, it will force change upon America very soon.


China will not undergo a revolution, because it already had them; the agricultural revolution, the economic revolution, and the social revolution.

India has been buying time, but they will need to undergo their economic revolution before they can continue on their path. India's economy is still set in the partial caste system, which conflicts with economic progress. it will be forced soon enough.

The average Chinese person is quite happy with their lot in life. For revolution to occur people must be angry or frustrated with the status Quo. in China this is not the case. each day brings more work, more opportunity, more wealth and luxury. I see it each day.

I agree with you on everything up till the bold part. Toolman I know you are a cheerleader for China, but all you have to do is search and see that the average citizen is not "happy with their lot in life".

www.thenation.com...


And to the person who said China's military build up just seems to be for defensive purposes. Where did you hear that? From China?

Just google in "chinese military buildup" and you will get lots of sites. Sure their build up is defensive, but why would they need offensive and projection weapons? To fend off an attack from the US and others? And why would the US and others want to attack them? It isn't like they have anything the US would want, that any would attack them/