N. Korea Missile test

My appologies to you, and a very valid point.

I was speaking under the assumption that if NK were to lob a nuke at someone, it would probably be the US, only because Kim is already in the belief that the US has completely abandoned NK on all fronts.

But yes, you are right, the missle could go anywhere else too.

North Korea has the worst timing in the world. Why would they schedule a missile flight at a time when the US Military is conducting 2 very large exercises in the Pacific, and is in position to effect the test.

First, Northern Edge 2006 is just ending, which was noteworthy because there were 3 squadrons of F-22As involved in the exercises. With the Langley runways being repaved for another month, the F-22As are expect to remain in Alaska for another month. It should be noted that Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska currently has one of the largest groupings of KC-135 aireal refuelers in the world right now, meaning it is no big deal for the F-22A to get to North Korea and back.

Second, the US Navy is currently holding Valiant Shield ‘06 off the coast of Guam. The exercises isn't simply a multi-national Naval exercise, it is a Joint Military exercise that includes some serious firepower.

Looks like it is Shields Up! for the US. It is one thing to put the ground forces on alert, but you have to think the Navy is chomping at the bit.

Think about it... the Navy has 2 AEGIS ships in the Sea of Japan, I read it is the USS Curtis Wilbur and USS Fitzgerald, both with their anti-ballistic missile tracking systems and SM-3 interceptors, in the Sea of Japan facing a potential launch from a known launch position in a situation where your allies have your full support...

With that kind of a good situation, you have to think the Navy will want to try to shoot the missile down if they get the chance.


[edit on 20-6-2006 by darksided]

Originally posted by almeister 5000
Hi All
Well i'm probs going to get alot of negitive replys to this but here goes anyway.....

almeister, I for one think you raise completely valid points. To tell the truth, America would be much more widely accepted throughout the world if we just kept out of others affairs. The whole "police the world" concept is a tired one, but it's one that American politics will never let go of. It's all a result of the quest for power. It's apparent, we don't want anything going on in the world without our say so, and I for one, am disgusted by it.

"Hey Kim Jong, You sir, are not allowed to test your missile. Oh, and by the way, did you happen to see the great footage of my Minuteman test launch the other day?"

The consequences of inaction are far greater. And we're not the only ones who have a problem with Kim's missile threat. China, Japan, Australia, South Korea, and New Zealand have all accepted the US's position on this matter. That kind of "let em do what they want" attitude opens way for Hitler-like-dictators to invade other countries.

[edit on 6/20/2006 by aecreate]

Originally posted by Unit541
"Hey Kim Jong, You sir, are not allowed to test your missile. Oh, and by the way, did you happen to see the great footage of my Minuteman test launch the other day?"

It is an interesting point, except I think it is a stretch to find moral equality in the US and North Korea. The whole world, including North Korea, knew about the Minuteman launch. North Korea hasn't said anything about thier missile launch except to tell the rest of the world, including all of North Korea's neighbors to butt out and shut up.

The last time they launched a missile, it went over mainland Japan. Japan debated war with North Korea after that incident, and a promise was made by president Bill Clinton to Japan that the US wouldn't allow that to happen again.

Today, the US is being asked by Japan and other countries to live up to our agreements, which is ironic, since the launch of a missile by North Korea would be a direct violation of the agreement they made with the Clinton Administration in 1998.

Originally posted by darksidedIt is an interesting point, except I think it is a stretch to find moral equality in the US and North Korea.

I concede this point, but it was more of a jab at the general demeanor of the US Government, not so much a literal comparison.

Indeed the world did know about our launch. But do you think the US would stand down if NK opposed the test? Or better yet, what if Mexico stood up and opposed the launch? Do you think we'd lock it up?

I guess we can't say for sure, but I'd place my wager that we'd fire away.

I don't want to be mistaken here, I don't want NK testing anything, in fact, the world would be safer if his right to breath were revoked. All I'm saying is that the American governement has, for many years (especially since the end of the cold war), exhibited the "holier than though" attitude towards, well, the rest of the world.

Not to go off on a tangent (actually that's exactly what it is), but Iraq is a prime example. Who were we to remove Saddam? While we were led to believe it was in our best interests as a nation, Saddam was really none of our business. I just don't like the idea of any government imposing its will on the world to further its agenda (whatever it may be) under the premise of "righting the worlds wrongs".

A 5000, you raised some extremely valid points, yet as with all points, there are some counter points worth at least mentioning.

The missile in question, as much as I've ever heard about it, doesn't have the range to reach Eurpoe, or even to Africa. In fact, because ICBMs have a minimum range, South Korea and Japan don't have the same direct interest in it, but a very substantial indirect interest, as the US has for a long time now been the 'big brother' making sure they don't get invaded or bombed.

Countries which DO have that great direct and personal interest would be nations at an intermediate/long range, such as the US, Canada, China, Russia, Australia, New Zeland and a few dozen smaller nations whose global influence doesn't really amount to very much. (and that's the currency here, influence) So why the focus on the US here? Simple elimination. Of the aforementioned nations, Only the US makes regular appearances in North Korean propoganda as the enemy of the people of North Korea. And at the moment, Only the US has any signifigant claims to weapons theoreticly able to defeat such a missile after launch. That doesn't mean only the US has a strong interest in what goes on here by any means. North Korea has turn one in this game, the US turn 2, and noone knows who has turn three yet.

Since a lot of people keep warning about comparing nations to children, I'd like to point out that in international diplomacy, it's not that bad of a comparison for what will be done. Consider childish actions and sentiments for ALL nations, and you just might divine the future. Of course, there's also the hopes that everyone's parents will show up in time.

Since I'm playing with the childhood/playground analogy, North Korea has picked up a rock and is threatening to throw it. Meanwhile, everyone else is saying "umumumumum, you're gonna get in trouble, we're not allowed to throw rocks."

Hey all

I thought that although I believe some of my points valid It occoured to me that I might have come across a bit strong and harsh.

Being the kinda person I am I've been thinking about this all day lol

So I would like to apoligise for the way I maybe sounded in my last post i think it might be the media portrayal of things or who knows but it seems more and more these days that alot of people have a negitive view of america.

Also and the fact I was quite cranky when i wrote this post.

Sorry again in case i offended anyone

heck, no problems or offence taken here. I'd rather debate things in a logical manner than surround myself with yes-men. Meanwhile, I think I'll try and find some worldwide weather site then turn in for the night.

The real concern here probably isn't so much NK launching an attack with this missile, but NK selling the missile to anyone who can ante up their asking price. Most of the US and Europe isn't under threat from this missile if launched from NK, but if its sold to other problematic countries, it very well may. That's why the stakes are so high.

The US activation of its missile defense system will hopefully deter them from even attempting it. If it is destroyed, they will be unable to sell it for sure. Unfortunately, the system's effectiveness is unknown and certainly questionable and there are no guarantees that it will work.

Originally posted by vor78
The US activation of its missile defense system will hopefully deter them from even attempting it. If it is destroyed, they will be unable to sell it for sure. Unfortunately, the system's effectiveness is unknown and certainly questionable and there are no guarantees that it will work.

It's brikmanship at it's best (or worst, depending on your view). NK has a new missile, which they need to demonstrate works so they can sell it.

The US has the ABM system, which they also need to prove works.

Regardless of where this missile is headed, this is an important crossroads for all. If the missile is shot down by the ABM, then NK loses this round. If the ABM is fired and it fails, then the US loses this round.

Alot is riding on this and it is worrisome that the ABM has yet to be proven in tests, let alone real life.

Originally posted by TruthWithin
The distance given by the US Gov stated that the missle has a range of up to 9300 miles. Thats Cali. Kudos to Anchorage though. SOrry about all the quakes up there.

I should have logged it for those needing proof of every word but - I caught a news story about the confusion over range this morning. I’m not sure which network it was. I was late for the office. Apparently discussions regarding possible future scenarios are getting confused in the press with the actual range of this ICBM. One network misreports and then the others don’t bother to check the info. Same old, same old.

Where I’m sitting now is within range and I am surrounded by multiple military bases. This would clearly be the easiest target other than Guam. When a madman has a nuke and a missile to attach it to that can reach my home and workplace I loose any sense of humor and pray that my government will protect us. Its time to do away with this particular threat. To let it go on any longer is crazy and borders on incompetence. When you may be the target you become very pragmatic very quickly.

Alaska is a big place. Those quakes are near the end of the Aleutian Island Chain. They are normal and happen often. Those are far enough away they are not felt here. Thanks for the concern.

Personally, I think this is starting to look a lot like another Cold War. North Korea has what is suspected to have a fully-functional nuclear weapon capable of reaching the United States and is not afraid to use it. Show of power. The United States is holding massive war games in the Pacific involving three carriers and numerous fighter jets to simulate the "neutralization" any situations "this region of the world" could present. Show of power. Hopefully that's all this will end up as. But with a fueled missle on a launchpad, things are getting tense. At least, theoretically. No one really seems too nervous about this. At least, outside of this forum.

Originally posted by bonafide
REALLY? Think for a minute. Please. Do you all really think that this will be an attack on the US? With a notice? C'mon... I need to start taking a hit off whatever it is you are smoking. WAIT !! I got it. Lets call up Iran and tell them the date we will be attacking. PLEASE. Arent there some martians or UFOs out there??

Good one, at least some realism instead of acting either extremely afraid like if they're going to attack the US (Bush loves to rule by fear) or to act tough and get horny from the prospect of testing ABM. Nevermind that North Korea has the right to test such missiles, to shoot down a space launch is illegal and that North Korea will most likely not put a homing beacon on its missile and let you know the missile course in advance, which was necessary for ABM tests.

Originally posted by sweatmonicaIdo
I'm not saying a hard-line policy is the answer, but goodness, the Sunshine Policy has actually strengthened North Korea and isolated it even more rather than improve relations. Kim Dae Jung NEVER deserved that Nobel Peace Prize.

Jung's carrot policy seemed to have had very small results in the right direction at the time, then things went wrong. Bush's stick only policy sure doesn't have ANY results, no matter how small, in the right direction.

Originally posted by XphilesPhan
As I said I would personally like to see one come down on san fransico, you know, the city that thinks the US should have no standing military forces of any kind

War is peace, right? You'd like to kill some hippies from what I read?

Originally posted by XphilesPhan
I bet they are all singing a different tune at their cocktail parties now ...as they will claim the payload was a satelite just one that would be directed at the US.....how many times can I roll my eyes here?

i should roll my eyes: you actually believe they'll attack the US with a single missile?

Originally posted by XphilesPhan
The US is being tested becasue they believe we have our hands full with Iran/Iraq.... congrats to the anti-american media.....you may have finally convinced our enemies we are defenseless....way to go!!!!

You DO have your hands full with Iraq. Last time I checked there were around 100.000 US troops there. Thank Bush for that, not the "anti American media". Btw, quiz question: who has missiles and WMD in the following list: Saddam's Iraq anno 2003, Iran, North Korea?

Originally posted by stumason
If the missile is shot down by the ABM, then NK loses this round. If If the ABM is fired and it fails, then the US loses this round.

If the missile is shot down, the US loses on the international scene while winning domestically. If the ABM fails, North Korea can still lose if their missile fails again, which has a very real chance.

Originally posted by cobaltsurfer
Personally, I think this is starting to look a lot like another Cold War.

North Korea from the very start, the 1950s, has always been part of the Cold War. It's just that they've not always been at the focus of attention after the fall of the USSR. Poor country with no oil you know. North Korea is just trying to show that they're capable of defending themselves, which is what the US doesn't like. North Korea isn't going to attack anyone, that would be suicide. The only country in this stalemate who came close to nuking the other was the US against North Korea in 1950. Just like Stalin after 1945, Kim Jung Il wants to have a joker in his pocket to ensure his safety, not to attack the US with it.

A lot of people on here have been fighting about their rights to own guns to protect themselves.so why shouldn,t countries have their own big guns??What makes America so special that they should be sole owners of ballistic missiles/nukes/chem weapons?

Ok you may say ''these countries are too unstable/volatile to own them''
Hmmm your last few presidents haven,t looked/acted particularly stable to me.

Just had a thought.. just hope Dick Cheney isnt aiming them for you in a conflict

Agent_T, I actually agree with you, for the most part. Under most circumstances, the US has little right to tell another country it cannot develop nuclear weapons. If India and Pakistan want to develop nuclear weapons, for example, that's their own right.

However, in the case of a country like NK, you have to consider that relations have been anything but friendly between the US and NK for decades and there is a history of conflict between the two. To my knowledge, NK isn't under any international treaty banning them from testing this missile. Now, maybe that means the US doesn't have a fundamental right to tell them how to conduct themselves, but at the same time, its not unreasonable to think that the US sees this test as an escalation of tensions by NK and a potential threat. The US has a right to defend itself against a threat or potential threat.

In reality, both the US and NK believe that they are correct on this issue. Interestingly, they probably are both correct.

Originally posted by vor78
The US has a right to defend itself against a threat or potential threat.

The only one who is a threat to the other is the US to North Korea. That has been like that ever since - in its usual imperialist fashion - the US sent the General Sherman up to make North Korea open itself to international trade by military force like Commodore Perry tried with Japan. How could a tiny nation of 25 million people be a threat to the US, with +250 million people?

Some of ya act as though the US is the only one who has a problem with this test... South Korea, China, Japan, New Zealand and Australia have all expressed concern. If this isn't a big deal, why would those countries even bother? Come on, I can see some of ya coming to the defense of Pakistan and India if they wanted to test something, but NORTH KOREA?? That lax attitude of "Let em do what they want, look the other way" is exactly what allows fruitloop dictators to proliferate.

You know, Mr. Kim is not a dumb man. He is a crazy man. Unfortunatly, I have been around crazy people enough to know how their minds work. I cant help but think that this missile they are about to send off is not what we expect. This fella knows exactly how we are going to respond to it. He has taken his own sweet time getting this thing ready to go. He wants all of our attention. Now he has it. Valient shield was not planned to happen on June 19th untill June 12th. Kind of short notice. He also knows we would shoot it down. I cant help but see a Trojan horse of sorts here. Either this is a big distraction and we are going to get hit from the rear, or this thing will have a nasty surprise in it when it gets hit with one of our own. Im going with the second. He wants the whole world to watch this, and now they are. A crazy man with a missile wanting every one to watch while acting cockey even with all our forces over there IS NOT GOOD.

[edit on 21-6-2006 by mrsdudara]

and another thing....I think our govt. knows it. They have told us over and over through this that they are not going to tell us everything. If this was just a missile test that would be all there was too it. None of that "we can not disclose any more information" crap. As I said above, they decided to put all of our big guys in guam only one week before. Another thing is that I have never seen an "excercise" called Valient SHIELD before. Shield is always followed by Storm. They will shoot it down in an area where it will cripple the west coast civilians instead of our millitary.