Fermi Paradox (are we alone?)

Are we alone? I think not. Statistically scientists can calculate the probabilities of extraterrestrial life. The late physicist Enrico Fermi

www.nobel.se...

postulated the paradox that statistically we on earth should have been visited by intergalactic civilizations but there is no evidience of such visitations. This is the Fermi Paradox:

www.etcontact.net...

Indeed, why is there no convincing evidence of such visits? There are many individuals outside and a few inside the scientific community who believe that there is evidence of such visits. But until the scientific community as a whole has been convinced we have to assume a lack of clear and convincing evidence.

The answer may be that by the time civilizations can develop the technology for galactic travel they have either destroyed themselves or simply ceased to exist as we on earth will when our solar life cycle is extinguished (provided we have not destroyed ourselves or more hopefully sailed for the stars). We may never know the answer. The first radio wave transmissions from our earth have not even reached 100 light years into space therefore other Milky Way galaxy civilizations if they are listening probably have not yet heard us.

I welcome your thoughts on the subject.

No convincing evidence of such visitations? I think there is plenty. Fermi was likely one of the scientists in on the joke played upon the civilian populace as well.

The October 7th 1965 Edwards Air Force Base incident is all the proof necessary to make the case for extraterrestrial visitation. Problem is, the media won't talk about it, scientists won't talk about it, and the government absolutely won't talk about it. This case was in Project Blue Book, has had documents delcassified and had a small portion of the audio that was recorded released (in scrambled format). Its basically the biggest smoking gun on ET visitation ever and it sits out in public view and it is purposefully ignored. There is no way to prove the case for ET visitation in this hostile environment. You can't take the evidence anywhere or do anything with it.

I think we need an ongoing, serious thread about the Fermi paradox, so I'm going to give this one a bump and a flag. People who are serious and scientifically minded, but aren't averse to a little informed speculation, what do you think the top 5 hypotheses with respect to the F.P. are?

I'll start with mine:

1. There ARE here, but...(many possible "buts," many of which are interesting)
   
2. The quarantine hypothesis: we are not trusted and are watched from a distance with suspicion.
   
3. We are them.
   
4. Rare Earth: intelligent life is so rare, there is none nearby, so visits to our galaxy a re extremely rare or eve non-existent.
   
5. The incubator: kind of like the quarantine, but a temporary stay-out zone has been created around Earth for our benefit
   

Originally posted by dogsoldier
Are we alone? I think not. [...]

I welcome your thoughts on the subject.

Maybe there just isn't anybody out there. The Drake Equation has a lot of variables, and it only takes one of them to be zero to make the entire equation equal zero. We still don't have a clue as to how a bunch of chemicals can gather themselves all up and form a living, reproducing thing. Maybe life is so rare as to be nearly impossible. Except for us, maybe, and a few microbe-like things tucked away on the other side of the Universe.

And even though we think our civilization is hot stuff, it's really less than 10,000 years old and could easily be wiped out at any moment by a stray asteroid or solar plasma blast. Sometimes I don't think we give the space we live in enough credit for being extremely dangerous and harsh.

On the other hand, the Fermi Paradox carries with it many assumptions. The biggest one is that "contact" would be in a form we as ordinary animals would or even could recognize and understand. Maybe we're constantly being screamed at by other ET lifeforms, but because we don't have the right kind of "ears," we can't hear them.

It's a puzzler.



[edit on 5-7-2007 by SuicideVirus]

Originally posted by disownedsky
I think we need an ongoing, serious thread about the Fermi paradox, so I'm going to give this one a bump and a flag. People who are serious and scientifically minded, but aren't averse to a little informed speculation, what do you think the top 5 hypotheses with respect to the F.P. are?

I'll start with mine:

1. There ARE here, but...(many possible "buts," many of which are interesting)
   
2. The quarantine hypothesis: we are not trusted and are watched from a distance with suspicion.
   
3. We are them.
   
4. Rare Earth: intelligent life is so rare, there is none nearby, so visits to our galaxy a re extremely rare or eve non-existent.
   
5. The incubator: kind of like the quarantine, but a temporary stay-out zone has been created around Earth for our benefit
   

* They are signaling - but we do not understand the signals

* They all ended their civilization in cosmic catastrophes

* They are at the same or less level than we are ( less than Kardashev type I planetary civilization) - so - there is no possibility for them to reach us

* They are not interested in making contacts

* Somehow, we are been overlooked

* We are alone in the Universe

Often when thinking of the evidence/lack of and the intentions of a hypothetical ET visitation I ponder this situation:

Deep in the jungle scientists apprehend a gorilla using sedatives. They weigh it and measure it. They take their samples and brand it in some shape or form so it may be recognized by them in the future. Gorilla is released still half stunned. It treads back to his band and tries to explain to them what in hell just happened.

I think that if Alien visitation was in effect the most logical/plausible circumstance would be investigation. The day we cross space it will most likely be with the same intent we had when we crossed the oceans - investigation and search for new knowledge and new riches. I also think that Alien presence and action would be so... well... alien to us that we might find ourselves as confused as that band of gorillas trying to understand the purpose of the event that just happened in their community - completely unaware that their lives were changed just so a new book on wildlife could be published. (A fun thought, that we have a part in some galactic encyclopaedia somewhere out there).

In my opinion however I always think that extraterrestrial presence on Earth is a subject that still needs a dose of "accepting ignorance" - I know not all of us here think this way but outside of faith I see no way where I can find myself convinced that these events and reports that have accumulated over the years (some fraudulent, some thought-worthy) are in fact extra-terrestrial in nature.

I admit my ignorance - I really can't tell if something unexpected or unidentified is alien or earthly. Simply because I don't claim enough knowledge of my planet, myself and those around me I don’t feel confident enough to start looking at the stars. Plus I always find it more compelling to get to know the human claiming to have proof of aliens than focusing on the proof he/she brings. I don’t want to see Mars, Jupiter or the Pleiades but I’d really like to have a chance to see the vast oceans, high mountains, smell the Earth all over the planet and look in the eyes of its people.

Why care about aliens and stars when our own planet and its humans are so special, beautiful and unknown to us?

[edit on 5-7-2007 by InTrueFiction]

my own thoughts are inter-stellar travel is near impossible for biological beings. That still leaves the problem of why theres no alien probes roaming our solar system but then again maybe there is we just havnt found them?

i think intelligent life could be relatively rare. Maybe 8000 civs in the galaxy. That would make them on average 10,000 light years apart. If thats true i dont think theres much chance of making contact. Unless we invent a stargate or something :/


8000 is really pessemistic im hoping for alot more.

[edit on 5-7-2007 by yeti101]

Originally posted by yeti101

8000 is really pessemistic im hoping for alot more.

Pessimistic? I consider myself to be optimistic when I say that in this galaxy there might be a dozen or so intelligent ET civilizations, with us being able to maybe eventually detect one of them. That's how rare I think life is in this Universe that is so huge and harsh.

Maybe some other galaxies have more life in them, but there may be no way to ever sort out any of their signals from the noise and chaos of the Universe.

[edit on 5-7-2007 by SuicideVirus]

Originally posted by heelstone
The October 7th 1965 Edwards Air Force Base incident is all the proof necessary to make the case for extraterrestrial visitation. Problem is, the media won't talk about it, scientists won't talk about it, and the government absolutely won't talk about it. This case was in Project Blue Book, has had documents delcassified and had a small portion of the audio that was recorded released (in scrambled format). Its basically the biggest smoking gun on ET visitation ever and it sits out in public view and it is purposefully ignored. There is no way to prove the case for ET visitation in this hostile environment. You can't take the evidence anywhere or do anything with it.

Actually, a recent audio documentary was released by a man by the name of Francis Ridge who spent eight years putting all of the chopped up pieces of the recording back together in the right order and removing all of the background noise to make it understandable. With the assistance of Chuck Sorrels and Sam Sherman, who were both at Edwards AFB the night of the sightings, He made it possible, finally to hear what actually happened that night on Oct 7, 1965.

Although I wasn't able to find an actual link to the recording, itself, I did find a written transcript and you can read it here:

EDWARDS AFB AUDIO ENCOUNTER

You can also find links to other reports and witness statements about that night here:

Nicap.org

I have read the transcript and found it very compelling; I almost felt like I was hearing the actual voices of the officers and control tower staff as the events unfolded. I am going to try to get a copy of the tape which is for sale at several websites. If I do I'll upload a copy for everyone to hear. In the meantime the transcript is all we have.

I would be interested to hear what you all think of it after you have looked it over.

[edit on 7/5/2007 by lightseeker]

According to optimistic estimates of the Drake equation, there are probably only a handful, or maybe one intelligent civilization that tries to communicate with other civilizations per Galaxy.

But there's a similar 'equation' that would need to apply to estimate the number of civilizations that become space faring, or type II.

Part of that means evolving on a planet that was within the narrow range of gravity, that had enough minerals in the outer crust, and ample water and other fuels, if not these then other similar problems.

Fascinating discussion – thank you for adding your insights and giving me and others different perspectives to ponder.

Like some of you here, I’ve done extensive research on this topic of extraterrestrial life, and while I personally believe in it, I admit we have no (public) empirical evidence of their existence. Nevertheless, I believe some of the logic presented can be used to validate a few of the OP’s premise.

I agree that some of Drake/Sagan assumptions for variables in their equation are perhaps a bit optimistic, superfluous even. In circumspect, there are alternative ways to think and logically, mathematically, reach a similar conclusion.

I implore everyone here (esp. the OP) to pick up a copy of the following book and read it. You’ll find yourself amazed and quoting from it often. This is a great addition to any library for those interested in this subject. The author does not rely on Drake’s equation, yet clearly lays out in lay terms an unambiguous, irrefutable case for it to be impossible that our planet alone harbors life in the universe.

Almost no math and no equations will distract you from the treatise and it is an enjoyable, captivating quick reading. You’ll have no trouble finishing the paperback in a few sessions. The basis for the author’s study is heavily grounded in mathematics, however, particularly the probability laws, such as the:
*Union of collection of independent events
*Sequential probability paradigm
*Information inspection paradox
*Panspermia hypothesis
*Increasing entropy in thermodynamics
*Chaotic probability distributions in deterministic and random systems

For those unfamiliar with these terms, don’t let them intimidate you – the book is very easy to grasp…

Probability 1, by Amir D. Aczel, Harcourt, Inc., ISBN: 0-15-601080-1 (pbk.)

This is a fun, entertaining read and may even alter your thinking a bit. There are a bunch of used copies available at Amazon - only a dollar or two. See – now there’s no excuse to read it!

You can get it here, right now: Probability 1
Probability 1 should be a part of every library. I’ve shared it with many skeptics and believers alike. The result is always similar: “Wow – I had no idea it was so obvious…”

Intriguing Thread, Thanks - and keep looking up!

[edit-fix link]


[edit on 7/5/2007 by Outrageo]

Originally posted by SuicideVirus

Maybe there just isn't anybody out there. The Drake Equation has a lot of variables, and it only takes one of them to be zero to make the entire equation equal zero.

That's not correct at all. Everyone knows that the lowest possible answer to N in the Drake Equation is 1!

That is because we exist and we are transmitting as we speak.

Now that you know N can equal no less than 1, it's extremely difficult to input numbers that we already know and end up with N = 1. Typically reasonable numbers based on what we know result in N = 100 to 10,000+

Originally posted by SuicideVirus
We still don't have a clue as to how a bunch of chemicals can gather themselves all up and form a living, reproducing thing. Maybe life is so rare as to be nearly impossible. Except for us, maybe, and a few microbe-like things tucked away on the other side of the Universe.

Again we know the entire universe is teaming with Organic matter, the same chemistry that allows you and I to exist.

Originally posted by SuicideVirus
And even though we think our civilization is hot stuff, it's really less than 10,000 years old and could easily be wiped out at any moment by a stray asteroid

Well we've already figured out how to remedy that if we choose to do so.

Originally posted by SuicideVirus Sometimes I don't think we give the space we live in enough credit for being extremely dangerous and harsh.

We know that early on the Solar system was extremely harsh towards the Earth and the Moon, yet it wasn't harsh enough to wipe life off the face of the Earth!

Originally posted by SuicideVirus
On the other hand, the Fermi Paradox carries with it many assumptions. The biggest one is that "contact" would be in a form we as ordinary animals would or even could recognize and understand.

Fermi's Paradox makes no such assumptions, Fermi simply showed we should have already been seeing other civilizations. He simply asked "Where are they?". As Jill Tarter said, all we can say is that we don't see any "Great Big Shiny Ships" in our Solar system and have no Idea about anything smaller that might not stick out like a sore thumb.

Originally posted by SuicideVirus
Maybe we're constantly being screamed at by other ET lifeforms, but because we don't have the right kind of "ears," we can't hear them.

Well we do know UAP exist and occasionally produce short ELF emissions.

Shaman , i agree theres lots of reasons to be optimistic

but we know very little about other planets in our galaxy. What if the kepler mission returns a null result. What if it finds no earth size planets in the HZ of G type stars like sol? that would suggest life like ours would be rare.

the good thing is we will have the answers in the next 10 years and start to accurately fill in some of the terms of the drake equation. I hope we find many planets & future missions might even find another earth bisospere out there. Raising the prospects of intelligent life

None of the terms in the Drake equation can be zero, since we're here.

We're starting to get a handle on some of them.

Originally posted by yeti101
Shaman , i agree theres lots of reasons to be optimistic

but we know very little about other planets in our galaxy. What if the kepler mission returns a null result. What if it finds no earth size planets in the HZ of G type stars like sol? that would suggest life like ours would be rare.

I'm not so sure we need G class suns. It seems to me red dwarves would be be equally good candidates because of their long lives. You just need to get planets orbiting close enough. You could get similar biology.

Originally posted by yeti101
Shaman , i agree theres lots of reasons to be optimistic

but we know very little about other planets in our galaxy. What if the kepler mission returns a null result.

We know a heck of a lot more about exoplanets than we did just 15 years ago. Even just 20 years ago no one could say for sure that other Stars even had planets because we had never detected any.

It's true that we haven't seen many Earth Mass planets, but that is only because its much harder to detect smaller planets than the large planets.

One thing we can say is that there is a correlation between numbers and size. Just as with Stars, smaller planets greatly outnumber larger planets. You can see the same thing in our solar system, we have a Jupiter, a Neptune, a few terrestrial planets, and hundreds of Moons.

Originally posted by yeti101
What if it finds no earth size planets in the HZ of G type stars like sol? that would suggest life like ours would be rare.

That's highly unlikely, again just look at our system, the three terrestrial planets are all clustered near or within the HZ of Sol.

We've seen terrestrial planets in the HZ of Gliese 581, although it is a Red Dwarf, there are many more red dwarfs than there are G class Stars. That alone seems to suggest that life like ours might be more common than we ever even thought possible.

Also you don't really need planets exactly like Earth in terms of Mass to be habitable. For instance Mars is much smaller than Earth and we think it would have been habitable at one point. You could have larger planet say within 5 Earth Masses and that Mass really wouldn't effect the Planets habitability. So there is a large range in both terms of Stars, and Planets that could be habitable, but it would be exciting to Find a Planet in a HZ that was just like Earth, but that's not really necessary for life.

Originally posted by yeti101
the good thing is we will have the answers in the next 10 years and start to accurately fill in some of the terms of the drake equation. I hope we find many planets & future missions might even find another earth bisospere out there. Raising the prospects of intelligent life

Yeah, I think we will know a lot more in just ten years too. It's all very exciting.

Originally posted by Outrageo
Fascinating discussion – thank you for adding you
I implore everyone here (esp. the OP) to pick up a copy of the following book and read it. You’ll find yourself amazed and quoting from it often. This is a great addition to any library for those interested in this subject. The author does not rely on Drake’s equation, yet clearly lays out in lay terms an unambiguous, irrefutable case for it to be impossible that our planet alone harbors life in the universe.

I dunno - the Amazon reviews were pretty damning. And me, I like the occasional equation - then we know exactly what it is we're talking about (given the boundary conditions, etc.).

As an aside, it was a lame, cargo cult attempt an an equation in one of von Daniken's books many years ago that destroyed his credibility for me - some absurd expression with units in an exponent.

Originally posted by lost_shaman

Originally posted by SuicideVirus
On the other hand, the Fermi Paradox carries with it many assumptions. The biggest one is that "contact" would be in a form we as ordinary animals would or even could recognize and understand.

Fermi's Paradox makes no such assumptions, Fermi simply showed we should have already been seeing other civilizations. He simply asked "Where are they?". As Jill Tarter said, all we can say is that we don't see any "Great Big Shiny Ships" in our Solar system and have no Idea about anything smaller that might not stick out like a sore thumb.

I agree. There are many "buts" possible in my earlier post. One possibility is that "they" are nanobots. You might have them running through your bloodstream right now, and there is no test that would find them. I can think of a number of others, but they are all highly speculative.

Can we get to a set of hypotheses we can test? In my view, if we can get there, we would have something far superior to the current "ET hypothesis," which is so ill defined that I don't see how it can be treated scientifically.

[edit on 9-7-2007 by disownedsky]

Originally posted by lost_shaman
Again we know the entire universe is teaming with Organic matter, the same chemistry that allows you and I to exist.

It certainly helps us exist, but how does it actually form into life? Throw a bunch of amino acids into a bucket and see what you get. A bucket of goo.

We know that early on the Solar system was extremely harsh towards the Earth and the Moon, yet it wasn't harsh enough to wipe life off the face of the Earth!

I admit we got extremely lucky. Mars and Venus, not so much.

In any event, even considering how much better we've gotten over the past 5,000 years at looking into the sky for these smart ET bugs, we still haven't found them. That doesn't bode well.

Fermi paradox as utilzed by skeptics is logically flawed. first off they throw out the large body of UFO incidents as false and irrelevant. why in the hell would you do that if you were really looking to evaluate whether there is ET life out there. but leaving that aside...

would we even know what to look for or have the technical capability to detect it if it were very technologically advanced.

a couple of scenarios:

1: ETs use advanced space propulsion such as fusion, antimatter or other drives. what are the signatures of such drives?

most probably x ray or gamma ray bursts smaller than cosmic or stellar scale that occur in places where such bursts should not be such as near normal stars or around exo planets in irregular but nearly repetitive intervals and around the same locations. well we are just no developing the resolution necessary to capture such signatures and few have the idea to look for that specifically.

2: ETs use wormholes to gather intelligence and for transportation. how would we detect a transient wormhole particularly if it is small scale or micro scale? To put it in Fermi's formula: If ET's are using wormholes, how come we don't see worm holes here?

who says we would know what to look for? well it turns out there is an anomalous signature that happens all the time that could be a wormhole signature. it might not be wormholes because there are competing explanations of more mundane physics recently discovered. the centauro cosmic ray events that few if any charged particles. They do not as normal cosmic rays do interact strongly to matter in the atmosphere. this is a signature that can be explained by a electrically charged relativistic wormhole mouth. these events do not appear to produce pions or kaons but do produce strong electromagnetic reactions.