Does This Straw Break the Camels Back

The U.N. atomic agency has found traces of highly enriched uranium at an Iranian site linked to the country's defense ministry, diplomats said Friday. The finding added to concerns that Tehran was hiding activities that could be used to make nuclear arms.

The diplomats, who demanded anonymity in exchange for revealing the confidential information, said the findings were preliminary and still had to be confirmed through other lab tests. But they said the density of enrichment appeared close to or beyond weapons grade _ the level used to make nuclear warheads.

From the AP.

I find this particularly interesting, because it gets increasingly difficult to say no weapons program when Iran has weapons grade enriched uranium. The main issue is simple, you would never, ever enrich uranium to weapons grade for a civilian reactor.

Combined with the reality many countries with a civilian nuclear program don't even make centrifuses until they have 20 or more reactors, and Iran is doing it before they have their first reactor, you have to be basically ignore the facts to say Iran doesn't have a military nuclear program.

Will Russia or China care? I think it depends on how the left in America reacts. If the left in America takes a tough stance on the issue, Russia and China will cave, because politically they can't stand up to a united America, not without indirect economic consequences anyway.

Good find, but certainly not a suprise to many of us.

What nation announces tech advances the day they achieve them? None. For even one person to believe that Iran is not FAR BOYOND what they admit is absurd.

If they dont want nukes for weapons, or are years and years away from that tech, then why have they bought missiles than can carry nukes and modified existing ones to carry nukes today?

My head is far above the sand guys...

Doesn't really mean anything.

They found traces of highly encriched uranium before in Iran as well a few years back but later after testing by the IAEA it was found out that the enriched uranium was contamination from stuff Iran recived from Pakistan.

this is from a while back:

au.news.yahoo.com...





This instance of Encriched Uranium is most likely also contamination from stuff Iran has purchased on the black market. Every time Iran has been accused of Enriching Uranium and everytime samples have been taken it is found out that they are contamination from forign sources. This time should be no different unless America & the EU starts spinning the information with propaganda and lies.



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slow down, mates

This is no smoking gun.

A diplomat in Vienna, where the IAEA is based, confirmed the new finding but warned against exaggerating its significance: "It's no smoking gun. There could be many explanations. But it increases pressure on Iran to come clean about Lavizan."

It may very well be of the same contamination that was proven to have come from Pakistan.

and look at the timing of this new finding.

RESPECT

Since someone else had started a similiar thread and 12m8keall2c (Mod)
said to join in the discussion here. I will paste my reply to the other message here.

Aside from this being remarkably convenient, there is something that should also be considered here. The same thing took place in Iraq and Saddam Hussein was pretty much accurate in regards to spies being placed in investigative bodies and possibly contaminating or skewing evidence.


IF this were to be true, then I would hope either Iran kicks out the IAEA and demands a new investigative team or these supposed "leakers" be found and charged with obstruction. If Im not mistaken the IAEA is supposed to report to the UN and not to the press.
Seems to me someone is looking to sabotage these talks. In events such as this which could mean the difference between war and peace there should not be such people involved in these investigations. They should not be considered reliable or trustworthy at all.

Pie

Originally posted by ThePieMaN
Seems to me someone is looking to sabotage these talks. In events such as this which could mean the difference between war and peace there should not be such people involved in these investigations. They should not be considered reliable or trustworthy at all.

It's interesting that the Associated Press thought them to be reliable and trustworthy enough to print an article using them as anonymous sources. I know it wouldn't be the first time, but damn, camel's backs could break here. Literally. The AP should really have more consideration for animals.

I would just like to know what it WOULD take to convince some of you? Let's get it out in the open now, so we can refer back to that Red Line for you after we've crossed it and you try to draw another one!

They found traces of highly encriched uranium before in Iran as well a few years back but later after testing by the IAEA it was found out that the enriched uranium was contamination from stuff Iran recived from Pakistan.

O.K.

But...what are they doing with stuff that's been "contaminated" from Pakistan? I mean, fine, let's assume it's a second happening of the contamination. What on earth would they be buying from Pakistan that had been contaminated...not just once...but at least twice?

Could Iran be purchasing highly enriched uranium from them? Or is it some sort of other part which somehow came in contact with the uranium? And what "innocent" item could be bought that had come in contact with uranium?

Good grief...this isn't looking good, even if they bought it from a different source.

Regards-
Aimless

Tehran's explanation last August that the highly enriched uranium particles (weapon's grade), came from equipment bought on the black market from Pakistan gives me cause to wonder what else is available from the global nuclear black market -- to say nothing of covert purchases already made by say, Al Qaeda.

Hmmm after reading this article on Jpost.com

www.jpost.com...

He said he also advised them to "attempt to degrade the defense systems of Israel," harass it through the Hamas government of the Palestinian Authority and the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon, and put second-strike nuclear weapons on submarines.

How can they put second strike nuclear weapons on submarines IF THEY DONT HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPONS!!


and then the article goes on...


"They didn't want the technology. They asked: 'Can we have a bomb?' My answer was: By all means you can have it but you must make it yourself. Nobody gave it to us."


So they gave them the technology to do so.

So lets connect the dots.

1990 Iran asks Pakistan for a nuclear weapon

Pakistan says no and A Q Khan says "Pssst so you want nuclear technology eh??"

Pakistan supplies an unspecified amount of P2 Centrifuges (which I would keep hidden if I was in charge, Show the world a pair of 2's but keep your aces up your sleeve) as well as P1 Centrifuges.

Iran shows the world Natanz and is very vocal about showing it has created 4% enrichment, thus giving the ruse of many years of time before they could possibly get a weapon. They announce a cascade development for later this year that would be 50,000 + Centrifuges, again reaffirming how long it would be before they have the nuclear capability.

IAEA announces that a former site connected to high explosive testing and the military has proven positive for Highly enriched Uranium.

My speculation now..

Meanwhile in a mountain laboratory not that far away, P2 Centrifuges are spinning and rapidly producing enough Uranium for multiple weapons, (if you announce to the world you have 1 weapon you get nuked in less time then it takes to kiss your ass good bye, if you announce you have multiple weapons, leaders have to think again about attack as it would put Europe at risk, The middle east oil fields at risk and also the potential to kick start something between India and Pakistan.


Again how can you put second strike nuclear weapons on submarines if you dont have them? we know they have submarines now.. and ballistic missiles capable of hitting europe, they could have a freighter option to launch against the US.

I am now fully in favor of a special ops team going into Pakistan to grab A Q Khan to find out how much and what type of equipment he sold to Iran, How far along are they?

a full pre-emptive strike against Iran to take out all nuclear related sites, grab scientists and files and gather intel.

The world cannot afford to wait much longer if at all.

The Mullah's say that nuclear technology is against their faith, WHY ASK FOR A WEAPON THEN!!!

Kudo's, well done. It may be a little worse than that. I think your worse case scenario say's it best!

Originally posted by Aimless Searcher

Could Iran be purchasing highly enriched uranium from them? Or is it some sort of other part which somehow came in contact with the uranium? And what "innocent" item could be bought that had come in contact with uranium?

If they bought used centrifuges from pakistan it would make sense that they find traces of a higher enriched Uranim because as we already know they have the bomb. Its like if you are crazy enough to buy a used mattress...take out the magic Black light and Voila...ugly stains you never saw before Except these are radiation signatures and not bodily fluids. I think the signatures can be traced back to each country that manufactures it, so hopefully this will be explained and there is nothing more to this.


Pie

HaHaHaha, keep dreaming my friend!

I mean, don't feel lonely, no want's this to be true. We all have happy little live's to live. But this doesn't seem like the right forum for denial.

I'm assuming that's what it is, or are you from Iran? Honest question?

Originally posted by ThePieMaN
If they bought used centrifuges from pakistan it would make sense that they find traces of a higher enriched Uranim because as we already know they have the bomb. Its like if you are crazy enough to buy a used mattress...take out the magic Black light and Voila...ugly stains you never saw before

Except these are radiation signatures and not bodily fluids. I think the signatures can be traced back to each country that manufactures it, so hopefully this will be explained and there is nothing more to this.

Like you, I too hope that a valid explanation is forthcoming.

Your answer, however, begs the question....what did they buy that could yield a positive results? One centerfuge? 48? 120? Do we know if they even bought a centrifuge? And other than centrifuges, what else (that is innocent) could've been bought that would provide an adequate source?

I know, I'm so full of...questions. But I *really* want to think there is some sort of valid explanation, and I don't know if it's coming.

And BTW, point taken in re: used mattresses. Rest assured that is not on my purchase list.

Regards-
Aimless

For those of you calling (far too eagerly, I might add) for the US military to attack Iran, what should be done if all searches turn up negative, and the US has succeeded in destroying the fledgling infrastructure of a sovereign nation's 100% lawful nuclear energy program?

So far, the United States is not scoring very well on its preemptive strikes. It would be best, I'd imagine, if they learned from recent mistakes and had some patience this time around.

Originally posted by Aimless Searcher

Your answer, however, begs the question....what did they buy that could yield a positive results? One centerfuge? 48? 120? Do we know if they even bought a centrifuge?

I believe the IAEA said they had about 128 centrifuges right now. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong on that.

Yes they would have to have the centrifuges to enrich the Uranium wether for energy purposes or weaponization. For weaponization tho it takes thousands of them to produce anything in a fairly quick amount of time.

According to the second article from Yahoo not only did they find traces of Pakistani uranium , they found Chinese enriched uranium as well, so these centrifuges were like hand-me-downs from Russia -->China--->Pakistan --> Iran
None of the traces were of weapons grade enrichment. The highest they found was 54% which is a far cry from the 90% required for weaponry.



Pie

This is funny, there's this elaborate path that make's it all make sense right?

Originally posted by HimWhoHathAnEar
This is funny, there's this elaborate path that make's it all make sense right?

No, its an elaborate path to make certain the US doesn't launch another preemptive attack against a country that ends up being innocent. Hopefully, the US administration has learned from Iraq...and with Israel so endangered by a nuclear Iran, being absolutely sure is a good thing.

I think people would be more comfortable with a first strike if they knew the US wasn't going to bungle it up like they did last time around.

It has been found out that the "Enriched" Uranium was below the levels needed for nucluer weapons.

No that's the wrong straw. The straw the broke the camels back was used to stuff the couch I've been sleeping on, and it's doubly effective on me.

On a more serious note, I have a hard time (though I'm no physicist) believing that the IAEA can't differentiate between a few specs of contamination that were picked up somewhere in the equipment's past and the signs of a massive enrichment program.

Granted that Silica is not Uranium and that enrichment has nothing to do with quantity, but I've worked in very dirty environments. There is a serious quantitative difference between my truck, which drove through the job site a few times, and the company trucks which had the sole purpose in life on being in that contaminated environment (granted we're talking about dirt rather than uranium, i reiiterate).

Or take the smoking gun analogy. Do you mean to tell me that it's hard to distinguish between a gun that has been fired a lot recently and a gun that's been got a used parts that were involved in firings a long time ago? I call BS on that one because I've savored the smell of burning powder a bit and I'd dang well know if a gun was smoking or not.


For one purpose or another, the admittedly different experiences that I am able to use as a lens for viewing this incident cause me to see the IAEA as being intentionally vague and possibly concealing the turth in one direction or another.

Smoking gun or not, it's not going to change Russia's mind or China's. Bears and Dragons have much better backs than Camels.