73p/schwassmann-wachmann 3

Originally posted by Neon Haze
Again completely wrong...

The composition of an object is Extremely important!!!

You really need to work on your sense of reality and comprehension skills.

Just what part of "hit in the head by a chunk of iron ore or dirty iceball moving at 35,000 mph" is it that you cannot comprehend? That "joke" implies point of impact, so look at the picture for a clue. So how much atmosphere do you see between the ECO and the pink pig? Good lord, I wonder if you're real

[edit on 27-4-2006 by Regenmacher]

ya comets coming by i got my hole dug lol...........

Originally posted by Neon Haze
That is not an equation that was from observation.

It is possibly higher actually. We do have ways of dating craters.

And isn't what you said simply an observation of when impacts have happened? On those other statistics they're from the observation of those other events happening, right?

Originally posted by cmdrkeenkid

Originally posted by Neon Haze
That is not an equation that was from observation.

It is possibly higher actually. We do have ways of dating craters.

And isn't what you said simply an observation of when impacts have happened? On those other statistics they're from the observation of those other events happening, right?

As in NOT an EQUATION....

As in Statistical analysis of OBSERVERED impacts.

We are not talking about the 1.6 mile wide asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs (about 100 million Megatons). We are talking about up to 10 megatons (City Killers)

Try this link to get what I mean.

Earth Impacts Effects Simulator

NeoN HaZe.


[edit on 27-4-2006 by Neon Haze]

Originally posted by Neon Haze
As in NOT an EQUATION....

As in Statistical analysis of OBSERVERED impacts.

And the 1 in 5 chances of death by heart disease, the 1 in 58,618 of death by legal execution, the 1 in 615,488 of death by fireworks discharge, the etc, etc, etc, did not come from the statistical analysis of the observed instances of those events happening?

Anyway, that is a fun website. I use it in classes I teach and play around on it when I get bored sometimes.

[edit on 4/27/2006 by cmdrkeenkid]

Originally posted by Regenmacher

Originally posted by Neon Haze

If you don’t like the fact there is a very real chance we will get hit then you won’t be alone… none of us want to be whacked….. But just like a spoilt child has to live up to living without sometimes, you and everyone else has to come to terms with the reality we live in.

NeoN HaZe.

You seem void of math skills and or ability to research your supposition and play towards emotionalism and fear driven propaganda, which has nothing to do with physics and more do with the psychic hotline.

firstly I will go on record as saying that thanks for access to this site

Airforce 2025

Good clean skies in Australia…. Should get first class views from their I think….

I wonder what position you hold….

I wonder if Vincent Mumpfield, MSgt, FOIA Manager would be interested to know that you are discrediting valid scientific communications???

As for your comments on maths, I think you may want to re-calculate exactly how many miles 0.0907 AU is…

Originally posted by Regenmacher

0.0907 AU = 8,431,009 miles

The actual math is –

Originally posted by Neon Haze
1 AU = 149 597 870.691 ± 0.030 km ≈ 92 955 807 miles ≈ 8.317 light minutes ≈ 499 light-seconds Blah Blah Blah!!

We can all do the Maths to get to 0.0907 AU = 8,431,916 miles Regenmacher

So Regenmacher if I were you I would stop trying to cause a childish I’m better than thou argument and try using your brain a little.

NeoN HaZe.

Think you sit in Camp 5 – The let’s try and make myself look clever by discrediting anyone and everyone else that has a valid argument camp.


[edit on 27-4-2006 by Neon Haze]

Originally posted by Neon Haze

Originally posted by Regenmacher
0.0907 AU = 8,431,009 miles

The actual math is –

Originally posted by Neon Haze
1 AU = 149 597 870.691 ± 0.030 km ≈ 92 955 807 miles ≈ 8.317 light minutes ≈ 499 light-seconds Blah Blah Blah!!

We can all do the Maths to get to 0.0907 AU = 8,431,916 miles Regenmacher

Really, now you're grasping. Between the two is a difference of 907 miles. Could it be that you used slightly different numbers for what 1 AU is? Calm down.

73p is a concern however, 2006 gy2 is coming in very hot around may 16th. Based on estimates derived from the NASA NEO project it could hit the north Atlantic around 6am on that day. I have ask nasa for the interaction between the various segments of 73p and this asteroid. No comment yet.

Originally posted by cmdrkeenkid

Originally posted by Neon Haze

Originally posted by Regenmacher
0.0907 AU = 8,431,009 miles

The actual math is –

Originally posted by Neon Haze
1 AU = 149 597 870.691 ± 0.030 km ≈ 92 955 807 miles ≈ 8.317 light minutes ≈ 499 light-seconds Blah Blah Blah!!

We can all do the Maths to get to 0.0907 AU = 8,431,916 miles Regenmacher

Really, now you're grasping. Between the two is a difference of 907 miles. Could it be that you used slightly different numbers for what 1 AU is? Calm down.

Grasping??? I was challenged about my maths and simply pointed out that the person had done their sums wrong.

907 miles not a large error??

what do you think would happen to NASA if they had that attitude?

Although NASA has a problem with knowing the difference between KM and Miles but that's another story....

Originally posted by cmdrkeenkid

And the 1 in 5 chances of death by heart disease, the 1 in 58,618 of death by legal execution, the 1 in 615,488 of death by fireworks discharge, the etc, etc, etc, did not come from the statistical analysis of the observed instances of those events happening?

Well the truth is Risk analysis and assessment are very much misinterpreted.

You see most risk ratio's are completely in accurate and do not take into account all of the possible variables needed to create an accurate assessment.

More the case though that even if you have an accurate analysis how do you apply that to your everyday world???

An example....

You could come up with the risks of dieing on the London Underground
But how Dangerous is the London underground in real terms??

The only way for any of the figures to mean anything is to apply it to a real world scenario.

So if we said that the danger risk of a half hour journey on the London Underground is as dangerous as smoking half a cigarette, you at least have something to gage it by.

"(Disclaimer) NO Scientific evidence that 30 minutes on the tube = half a cigarette, just used as proof of concept."

Do you understand where I am coming from? What I mean when I say risk assessment has been confused?

NeoN HaZe.


[edit on 27-4-2006 by Neon Haze]

Originally posted by Neon Haze
We can all do the Maths to get to 0.0907 AU = 8,431,916 miles

Grasping??? I was challenged about my maths and simply pointed out that the person had done their sums wrong.

0.0907 AU x 92,955,807 miles does not equal 8,431,916 miles

I'll actually whip out the calculator this time, rather than doing it in my head:
1 astronomical unit = 92,955,807.26743318 mile [international]
0.0907 astronomical unit = 8,431,091.71915619 mile [international]
8,431,916 miles - 8,431,092 = Your off by 824 miles, if you want to get technical about it. So check your own math first before looking like the fool and eating more crow, considering my error was 10 times less than yours.

I'd say your more apt to be an egomaniac in the act of commiting fraud. You have no valid argument, the consensus of astrophysicists say you're wrong, and you have proven nothing. My view is backed up by NASA and ESO astronomers say it poses no threat to our planet, so where's the reputable article(s) that backs up your fear driven propaganda? Just where are they? I see nothing!

The French air traffic controller's proof is:

I received on April 7, 2006 a telepathic message from extraterrestrial friends. According to them, a méga-tsunami in the Atlantic Ocean I had experienced in a lucid dream three years ago, would occur around MAY 25, 2006.

Can buy his comic books too: www.exopoliticsinstitute.org...
Even Richard Hoagland said he was crackers, so did ET tell you about the comet too?

I'm betting man and I bet no ECO occurs. So let's bet it and the loser comes back here and makes a public apology for being an idiot.

[edit on 27-4-2006 by Regenmacher]

Oh, okay, and figuring out how often an impact occurs, such as saying, "there are statistically two earth strikes of at least 10 megatons in size every 100 years," is not a statistical form of risk assessment. My misunderstanding.

Also, going from a laymen's term, and what most of the students at my university are taught in the basic astronomy classes, 1 AU = 93,000,000 miles. Therefore, .0907 AU = 8,435,100 miles. Guess that's why I'm not NASA since I'm only bothering to speak in rough estimates and averages...

There's some recent photos here:

Observations of Comet 73P/Schwassman-Wachmann 3
Updated 2006 Apr. 27, 13:00 UT

You know what guys....chill a little!!

One of the main rules of these posting boards is to respect one another. There is no need for name calling or personal attacks. Let's keep it to the facts. Even conjecture based on evidence is encouraged here.

So far facts have been presented and so has conjecture.

The conjecture is that around May 24th, there may be a fireball sized object that could penetrate the earth's atmosphere and cause something to happen. If anything at all happens, it would most likely just be an eye opener.

The facts are that....

1. This 2006 GY2 asteroid is going to PASS the earth at a distance of about 1.65 million miles. That's close, but nothing to worry about this year.

2. The comet fragments in the lead are going to PASS us at a distance of about 6-8 million miles. The trailing fragments get smaller as they are further from the lead fragments. The KNOWN trailing fragments will PASS us at 4-6 million miles.

3. There are undoubtedly thousands of fragments from this comet at this time. Most of these fragments are too small to see. Some of them will be visible to high powered telescopes in Mid-May as they PASS.

4. We have no idea how far the smaller fragments have scattered. We do know the direction that they are scattering. They are scattering in the general direction of "behind the trajectory of the former main comet" very much like a meteorite disintegrates in the atmosphere of the earth leaving behind it a trail of debris. That debris continues to move in the same general direction as he head, but the atmosphere slows it.

5. If the debris trail of this comet is long enough and scattered right, then we could see a good meteor shower, perhaps even a few fireballs scattered around the globe and a slim possibility that a very small fragment could survive to impact somewhere on the globe. The probability of such a fragment causing newsworthy damage is very very very small. So small that I am not concerned about it. However, I will be out watching the skies on May 23-26 looking and hoping for a cool fireball. Very few people get a chance to witness a fireball in their life and this is an opportunity.



On another note, I was reading the arguement here about the probabilities of being killed by a meteor. Some of those stats are old. Just this year, a group of astronomers got together and calculated the probability of a person being killed by a meteor and they came out with about a 1 in 6,000 chance....more likely than dying in a plane crash but far less than most other forms of death. Still the probability is higher than most of us realize. For more info on that, you can read a book called "Rain of Iron and Ice" by John Lewis, a current astronomy professor at the University of Arizona.

On those stats, they are base on life of 60-70 years and the fact that populations are much greater today than they ever have been before.

Originally posted by davenman
On another note, I was reading the arguement here about the probabilities of being killed by a meteor. Some of those stats are old. Just this year, a group of astronomers got together and calculated the probability of a person being killed by a meteor and they came out with about a 1 in 6,000 chance....more likely than dying in a plane crash but far less than most other forms of death. Still the probability is higher than most of us realize. For more info on that, you can read a book called "Rain of Iron and Ice" by John Lewis, a current astronomy professor at the University of Arizona.

On those stats, they are base on life of 60-70 years and the fact that populations are much greater today than they ever have been before.

Ah, but the difference is a meteor and that stat is given for an asteroid. More meteors fall to Earth each year than asteroids do.

Nice post daveman very elequently put.

Good to know that there are other people reading this post.

All the best,

NeoN HaZe.

Originally posted by cmdrkeenkid
Ah, but the difference is a meteor and that stat is given for an asteroid. More meteors fall to Earth each year than asteroids do.

Gosh Geesss....

This is really getting silly....


NeoN HaZe.

Originally posted by davenman
Still the probability is higher than most of us realize. For more info on that, you can read a book called "Rain of Iron and Ice" by John Lewis, a current astronomy professor at the University of Arizona.

Many experts and still free.
Great Impact Debate -NASA

You forgot to add from the "Rain of Iron and Ice" book:

"no one as ever been killed or hurt by a meteor or asteroid in the presence of a Western, 20th/21st century journalist or meteoriticist."

Senior Research Scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory says:

Don Yeomans: With regard to the possible threats that NEOs pose, scientists can point to no person in recorded history who has been killed by an asteroid or comet.

As for another Tunguska event we are hardly overdo:

. Impacts in the 10-megaton range probably happen only once every 500 to 1,000 years.

Well so much of observed data pointing to death by the sky falling,
especially from comet fragments that are over 20 LD's away.

I want to see some facts and reputable links rather than all this smoke blowing fictional opinions that says this comet is any kind of threat to earth. Still waiting...


[edit on 27-4-2006 by Regenmacher]

Commander Keen Kid,

The difference between an asteroid and a meteor is it's location. When it is in space, it is technically an asteroid regardless of its' size. When it enters earth's atmosphere, it becomes a meteor regardless of its' size. If it actually reaches earth, it becomes a meteorite, regardless of it's size.

As a moderator in the "Space" category of this website, you of all people should read this book by John Lewis called "Rain of Iron and Ice". You can find it at Amazon.

It seems that you like to take shots at my posts and that is fine, but if you are going to do it as a moderator then you should at least have your facts straight and then take shots with logic rather than just snide remarks.

This just in...

The Hubble Telescope has just released images of a couple of the fragments.

www.spacetelescope.org...

Check out the movies too!!!

Originally posted by davenman
The difference between an asteroid and a meteor is it's location. When it is in space, it is technically an asteroid regardless of its' size. When it enters earth's atmosphere, it becomes a meteor regardless of its' size. If it actually reaches earth, it becomes a meteorite, regardless of it's size.

Ah, you're right. I stand corrected.

EDIT: And, I'm not picking on you, or anything. You just post information I disagree with, and therefore I'm going to reply.

[edit on 4/27/2006 by cmdrkeenkid]