But can the Major, from his Olympian height, reveal to us WHY the US is in
Iraq in the first place?
Yes, I can. Glad you asked. Here is the reason. Much of this has
been put up before and referenced various Stratfor reports and
and analysis by G. Friedman.
The absolute number one reason that the US went into Iraq
was nuclear weapons. If you think back real hard
you may remember that nuclear weapons and terrorists
made the news heavily for a few weeks and was a great
fear at the time. There was much talk in the news (TV,
magazines etc) about Al Qaeda having obtained suit case
bombs from Russia. In November 2001 it was even
reported in the Pakistan press that Al Qaeda had
nuclear weapons. After Tora Bora it was reported that
some Al Qaeda people showed up in Iran. These reports,
although mostly forgotten now were widespread and
had much information to back them up. This gave a
fear that Iran might possibly give Al Qaeda nuclear
weapons. Similarly, it was feared that Pakistan might
give Al Qaeda a nuclear bomb, since the Pakistani
military had many Taliban supporters and Al Qaeda
sympathizers. In late October of 2001 the CIA received
reports from a Russian source that Al Qaeda may have
obtained two 10 kiloton suitcase bombs. In this backdrop
the scene at the time was very concerned about nuclear
weapons. This actually was a major point in the war
and shaped the focus of the US to go beyond just Al Qaeda.
Nuclear weapons was becoming a very major concern.
These are not fairy tales, even news accounts surfaced
in foreign sources, like for example, in December of 2001
General Hameed Gul of the Pakistani ISI (military
intelligence) gave in a newspaper interview the
following quote, "No one can tell us how to run our
nuclear facilities and nuclear programs. The Taliban
will always remain in Afghanistan, and Pakistan
will always support them." If you read this and
extract the full meaning, Pakistan was saying that
they were going to give nuclear weapons to the Taliban,
Al Qaeda's model government of Afghanistan. This had
to be taken seriously because Pakistan actually had
the bomb. One of the greatest fears in nuclear weapons
is that of someone giving terrorists a weapon. It
is widely accepted that most governments will not
start a nuclear war with the US, but it is widely
known that governments have given aid to terrorists
when it was thought that they could conceal this
from the US.
When it was reported in November 2001 in
the Pakistan press that Al Qaeda had nuclear weapons,
was this a set up for the story so that blame could
be avoided for giving them nukes? Were they just
preparing for when Al Qaeda floated a boat into New
York harbor with a nuke aboard. Were they just preparing
a cover something like, "We told you back in Nov 2001
that Al Qaeda was saying that they had nukes".
There is no limit to the scenarios one can come up
with here, but when the top general of Pakistan has
stated publically that they might give nukes to
Al Qaeda, the US intel community took note of the
fact and took it seriously.
This put a whole new complexion on the war against
Al Qaeda. This situation suddenly made priority
number one for the US to lock down nuclear weapons.
Remember, at this time, the US had done no more
than go after Al Qaeda for their attack on the US.
The US had used quite a bit of restraint. They had
only put a handful of military military personnel into
Afghanistan and had relied on the Nothern Alliance
for the most part in order to get these Al Qaeda people
who were attacking us. Even in this subdued response
Al Qaeda and its supporters (Pakistan) were talking of
nuclear attacks on the US.
So much for using restraint, if they wanted to play
hard ball they had picked on the wrong country. A high
US official was dispatched to Pakistan in December to
confront Musharraf with evidence that Gul and nuclear
scientists were collaborating with Al Qaeda. This
official gave Musharraf a list of scientists that CIA wanted
questioned concerning technology sharing with al
Qaeda. Two of them were out of the country. It was
demanded that they return and that Musharraf get control
of his nuclear weapons. The Pakistanis upon interview
convinced the US that they were not cooperating with Al
Qaeda, but they said that Al Qaeda was believed to have
Russian suit case bombs and even provided the serial
numbers of them and the date of manufacture, October
1988. The serial numbers did not check out with
Russian sources, and also no good story was given
as to why the Pakistanis had not confiscated the weapons
if in fact they had access close enough to get the
information. The story was probably born out of an
effort to give cause to the Americans to hesitate or
hold back on its anti Al Qaeda efforts. This intensifying
nightmare was being born at about the same time that
Tora Bora fighting ended. A number of advanced radiation
detectors were deployed around key spots in the US. These
are much more advanced than just Geiger counters. On Dec
20, 2001 Bush made the following comments at a press
conference.
"Today I'm announcing two more strikes against
the financing of terror. We know that Al Qaeda would like
to obtain nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons, and
we know that often times they do not act alone. Al Qaeda
has international supporters,..............Last year
a former official of the Pakistani atomic energy commission
set up an organization known as UTN. UTN claims to serve
the hungry and needy of Afghanistan, but it was UTN that
provided information about nuclear weapons to Al Qaeda."
Bush went directly after Gul and the nuclear scientists
allied with him. Also during this time a crisis had surfaced
between India and Pakistan. Some Pakistanis had made an
attack on Indian Parliament. India was threatening invasion
and nuclear war. Now Musharraf was being squeezed on two
sides. The US was ready to eat his lunch and so was India.
The US told Musharraf that they could call off the Indians
but the price would be the arrest of the terrorists that
bombed Indian parliament and to go after ISI's Islamist faction.
Musharraf being between a rock and a hard place followed the
advice. As time went on documents were obtained in a raid on
Mullah Omar's compound in Kandahar and carefully analyzed.
They showed links and hints of nuclear collaboration
between Al Qaeda and ISI. In December in an address to the
Citadel Bush said, "The authors of mass murder must be defeated
and never allowed to gain or use the weapons of mass destruction"
Still the situation in Pakistan was not locked down. In
January the Bush team decided to deal with the danger of nuclear
weapons, as well as Al Qaeda. Things were not going well. You
had the Pakistani situation. Reports of Al Qaeda visiting Iran
after Tora Bora, gave concern that Iran may be switching positions.
Iran had sided with the US in Afghanistan, by lending it the
Shiite Army in western Afghanistan which helped along with the
Northern Alliance Army from the north. On top of this, many of
the core of Al Qaeda had slipped away, and this core of
less than 200 is the real danger. They are very secretive and
don't even let many followers in on their strategies.
Also, you had the event in the Sudan when Osama bin Ladin had
paid a million and a half to obtain the enriched uranium to
build a nuclear bomb. Luckily, Osama had been scammed and the
uranium was not weapons grade, but it was accepted in the intel
community that Al Qaeda was actively seeking nukes.
In this setting the Bush doctrine could be summed up this way. Al
Qaeda is a global, conspiratorial movement found in many countries.
It will be attacked in whatever state it is found. Preferably
the attack will be aided by the concerned state, but if for
any reason the concerned state is hostile or prevents attack
then the US will also attack that state.
This doctrine when connected to the nuclear weapon situation
created a parallel and not talked about strategy. The US will
not tolerate existence of nuclear weapons unless those weapons
are under verifiable control of a government in which the US has
confidence. There was one group of countries that fell into the
classification of having or getting nuclear weapons that might
possibly give them to Al Qaeda. The nations were Iran, North
Korea, and Iraq. This was the so called axis of evil. Plans
were also developed for locating and attacking any nuclear
locations that were determined to be in the category of being
under a nation that the US has no confidence in. The US was
most concerned about the 3 nations in the axis of evil. Beyond
that they also had concerns about Syria, Libya, and Pakistan.
Russia was different. They weren't likely to give weapons to
anyone, but might have lost control of some when the USSR
broke up and no one was keeping track of the weapons. The US
wanted the following from every nuclear state in the world.
Verifiable evidence that existing weapons were secured or
if this were lacking then specific plan for dealing with the
problem. Some countries like Iraq and Iran denied they had
nuclear facilities while other countries were prepared to
give the guarantees. By the time Bush made his axis of evil
speech the Bush team had made the decision to do everything
necessary to insure that no nuclear weapons would fall into
the hands of Al Qaeda, even if that meant destroying nuclear
facilities in other countries. At this point the Bush team
made public that in an extreme case the US was prepared to
make preemptive nuclear strike on any unsecured nuclear site
if that was the only way to destroy it and if it was determined
to be a threat to the US. Most countries of concern granted
access to US agents and troops to search for and secure
nuclear facilities. Some did not. The US started plans for
destroying sites in these countries, Iran, Iraq, Libya, and
Pakistan. Pakistan was thought to be a key country because
it was believed to have the most advanced capability and also
close ties to Al Qaeda. It was believed the Iranians would be
too cautious to furnish weapons. Iraqis were thought to be
more likely if they had them. North Korea was thought to be
too concerned with their own survival and they were being
watched closely. One concern that surfaced was what weapon
would be required to take out a hardened nuclear site. Many
nuclear sites are built very strong in order to take accidental
explosions of the high explosives used in conjunction with
the nuclear core. These sites are very tough and it was
believed that nuclear bomb surface attack might not destroy
the weapons within the site. No US nuclear bombs were available
that could drive deep into the earth before detonation, so
it was determined to develop some. The purpose of this new
doctrine was to warn countries like Iran and Pakistan, not
to trigger nuclear war. These countries had to be made aware
of these policies without making it public knowledge within
the countries that their governments were submitting to US
blackmail. The Russians had to be reassured that the US did
not plan nuclear war and the US had to ask Russia to work
with them in convincing former USSR countries the intentions
of the US. The US planning was done by mid December and a
declassified version was released January 10 which contained
no mention of the new first-use doctrine, but it did contain
a request for funding in preparation for "future underground
nuclear bomb tests" if needed. The development of a new
underground detonating nuke was not an especially big deal.
The big deal was that the US was telling countries like
Pakistan as early as December 2001 that it would not tolerate
any existence of a nuclear facility that was not under
clear control. So in late December 2001 when US officials
went to mediate the conflict between Pakistan and India.
Pakistan was looking at the possibility of nuclear
attack from 2 directions, India and the US, unless the US
was given access to Pakistani facilities in order to guarantee
that no nuclear materials were being taken out by nuclear
scientists. What the US was insisting on was placing US
observers on site to carry out constant inventory of nukes
and any nuclear matieral present. The US wanted constant
information of Pakistan's nuclear capability and it was not
bluffing. The US insisted on sufficient personnel on the ground
in Pakistan to insure the control of access to
the materials. It is not sure how the details were handled
but in March US forces (not in uniform) along with scientists
from NEST (nuclear types) deployed simultaneously to
Pakistan's nuclear reactors.
Musharraf worked with the US on this and it was pretty well kept
under wraps. The ISI probably knew what happened but no
challenges were made. Also Musharraf was carrying out some
careful purges in the ISI of Islamist types that might be
loyal to the jihadists. The Pakistani nukes were locked down
as phase one of the Bush program to take out any rogue state
nuclear capabilities. Phase 2 would be Iraq and when Saddam
refused UN weapons inspector Hans Blix interview of his nuclear
scientists, Saddam found also that Bush was not bluffing.
Phase 3 will probably be Iran. Iran knows the US is not going
to allow it to have nuclear weapons but will do as much
posturing as they can in order to gain Shiite influence in
the Iraqi government. Phase 4 will be North Korea and this
in fact may have been taken care of already if the news
from about Oct 2,2005 that North Korea has given up its nuclear
program is true.
For some reason Bush chose not to make that big of a deal of
nukes to the public. Maybe he thought it would be too scary.
Of course he kept it under wraps that US personnel were
being deployed to keep inventory on nuclear materials
in Pakistan's nuclear sites. Telling the world that the
US was doing this would have given fuel to Al Qaeda's claim
that the Islamic governments they wanted to replace were
just puppets of the west. In any event Bush did not
emphasize to the public the danger we were under, in
so far as nuclear weapons were concerned and he did
not elaborate on the extent he was willing to go to
in order to deny nukes to untrusted Islamic states.
He did not even make that big a deal publicly about
Iraq's nuclear program, even though that was at the
heart of why Bush went into Iraq. If you think back to
that time, you will remember that Saddam's refusal
to let his nuclear weapon scientists be interviewed
by UN weapons inspectors was the key point where
UN inspections broke down with Iraq and this in turn
brought on the invasion of Iraq. If Saddam had not
denied UN inspectors unsupervised access to his
nuclear scientists, UN inspections would not have
broken down and he would still be there in power.
Bush read this refusal as proof that Iraq had a
secret nuclear program hidden away and Bush was
taking no excuses when it came to nukes, period.
Maybe Bush thought he would be embarrassed if inspections
proved Iraq no nuke program, but everyone accepted though,
at that time, that Iraq had gas weapons hidden away. So
the Bush team decided to keep low key on the nuclear issue
and just stress generally Weapons of mass destruction. In
retrospect this turned out to be a major public relations
problem for him.
As it turned out US fears of a hidden Iraqi nuclear program
proved to be absolutely true and I will go into that, if some one
asks about it.
[edit on 18-4-2006 by MajorCee]
[edit on 18-4-2006 by MajorCee]