EXCLUSIVE: Spin and Counterspin: New Bird Flu Mutation has 91% Fatality Rate in Humans

is there a possible time frame availible that shows about when people / mass people will die in north america???

thanks...

Originally posted by Odium

Originally posted by soficrow
Odium - bird flu is spreading like wildfire around the world right now.

And where are the deaths? As your title states "91% Fatality Rate in Humans", it is a bit misleading to post information on where birds have been found with it.

It's a zoonotic disease - so noting where animals are found to have it is not misleading.

IMHO - most cases are undiagnosed, so the human fatality rate is skewed. I suspect the disease is fairly rampant in humans, but not normally fatal. Most likely - 91% of people diagnosed with the new bird flu mutation die - and the rest are undiagnosed, to develop slowly progressive chronic disease with congenital impacts on their children. But that's my opinion. Not what the stats and officials say.

The cases in the Western world are tiny. Especailly, since the virus has been around for 9 years now as one of your sources shows us.

H5N1 bird flu has been around since 1959, at least. That's about 50 years.

We don't know how many cases might be in the Western world. Diagnosis requires molecular diagnostic testing - and it's just not done. Not routine; not in special circumstances.

No one knows how many cases there really are because no one tests.

What is this contagious Illness?

The fact still remains, the majority of the deaths are in Nation's with a poor Health infrastructure. Those who do have a fast response time, as well as a much better level of care in general the results will drastically change. It's like comparing the rate by which AIDs goes from being caught to "full onset", in Sub-Saharan Africa and the United Kingdom.

I hope you are right. But I suspect you are not. For several reasons:

1. About 47 million Americans do not have health insurance - and no real access to health care. Especially in the early stages of illness, when something can still be done.

2. The US federal pandemic plan focuses on "Personal Responsibility" in health - when obviously, the forces in play are very far beyond the individual's ability to control.

..."any community that fails to prepare - with the expectation that the federal government can offer a lifeline - will be tragically wrong." To assist local efforts, HHS is holding planning summits in all 50 states and providing checklists to local and state governments, businesses, schools, home health care providers, faith-based and community organizations and individuals and families.

3. Even in nations with socialized healthcare, economic forces are in play that prevent easy access to cutting edge vaccine technology - and any vaccine produced will come too late for most victims.


Your points that the world's poor in undeveloped nations are sitting ducks are very good points though. I edited out my section on this topic - but will get back to it at some point.

Thanks all - stumason, odium, WyrdeOne, TC, loam, everyone.
- sofi


PS loam. Get your fingers out of your ears. The truth will set you free.





[edit on 27-3-2006 by soficrow]

But wait, there's more...



The Dog Flu

Excellent work, soficrow! It will take hours to read, but it is worth reading

From all the information I have seen, I would say that (as usual) we are not being fully informed of the real spread of the disease and its virulence.
Getting all the information together spares time and gives a high quality information, thanks sofi.

Also loam´s contribution is excellent.

We are facing one of the worst disease of human´s history. The way it is developing, I am afraid the population of our planet will drastically become reduced. Maybe not now, nor in a couple of years, but if there is nothing to stop it, it will.


At least, if an extreme natural hazard is going to happen in the nearby future, we will be less and Governments will have less people to cope with...
Sorry, this is not the way I use to think... that information made me feel scared and worried... I´ll try to recover and continue reading and learning about it.

If people weren't fighting there stupidity against each other than these kinds of problems such as Cancers[certain Kinds of cancers] ,aids and this issue on the way would have been solved and we would probably have reached all the planets but sadly this isn't the issue. No one is willing to live together and unite.


GREAT JOB!! I need time to go around and read it through..
Thanks

Two thumbs up on a great job Sofi (Plus another applause to add to your growing pile )

It's going to take me a bit to read it all, but i'll do the best that I can.

Wupy

[edit on 27-3-2006 by mrwupy]

Originally posted by soficrow
US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld stands
to make a fortune from Tamiflu.

That fortune won't do him any good. He's going to die from this
thing just like the rest of us. After reading your excellent information,
soficrow, I can't help but wonder just how many people will be left
alive when this is all over. I doubt many will be.

Someone said it ... the next great extinction.
*sigh*

I have another stack of bird flu reports to file, but will focus on just two.

When I crunched the numbers I assumed the fatality rate was skewed - I thought bird flu was underdiagnosed and under reported. I expected some denial and repositioning, and humhawing about the 91% fatality rate.

But no. This from CIDRAP:

Mild H5N1 cases weren’t missed in Cambodian outbreak

Mar 27, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – Researchers who looked for mild or asymptomatic human cases of H5N1 avian influenza following an outbreak in Cambodia last year didn't find any, challenging the view that human cases have gone undetected, according to findings presented last week.

The research described Mar 20 at the International Conference on Emerging Infectious Diseases in Atlanta implies that surveillance for human cases might be more effective than some experts assumed, according to a story by the Canadian Press (CP). However, the findings also imply that the case-fatality rate for avian flu is higher than some experts thought.

...I have paused, but haven't changed my thinking. It seems quite obvious that H5N1 bird flu -in various non-fatal forms- already is endemic in the human population. The evidence clearly suggests that different regions have distinct genotype, and that H5N1 is rather incredibly changeable.

If it's true that H5N1 is endemic - then there are 3 main implications:

1. It explains the chronic disease epidemic,
2. Means that people are more likely to have some immunity, and
3. Explains why young people without acquired immunity are more likely to catch H5N1 and die.


On another note:

Horse antibodies used in treatment of bird flu virus H5N1

March 28, 2006. Antibodies against the bird flu virus H5N1, derived from horses, prevent mice infected with H5N1 from dying from the virus.

A study published today in the open access journal Respiratory Research reveals that a dose of 100 µg of horse anti-serum effectively protects infected mice.

These results suggest that anti-H5N1 antibodies developed in horses could potentially be used to prevent death from H5N1 influenza, or as early treatment for the disease, in humans.

Good news, yes?


.

For those who are not yet overloaded - this is just too good not to post.


EXPERIMENTAL WEATHER MODIFICATION BILL FAST TRACKING FOR PASSAGE IN U.S. SENATE & HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

U.S. Senate Bill 517 and U.S. House Bill 2995, a bill that would allow experimental weather modification by artificial methods and implement a national weather modification policy, does not include agriculture or public oversight, is on the "fast track" to be passed early in 2006. ...This bill is designed to implement experimental weather modification. The appointed Board of Directors established by this bill does not include any agricultural, water, EPA, or public representatives, and has no provisions for Congressional, State, County, or public oversight of their actions or expenditures.

Weather Modification may adversely impact agricultural crops and water supplies. If the weather is changed in one state, region or county it may have severe consequences in another region, state or county. And who is going to decide the type of weather modification experimentation and who it will benefit or adversely impact?

Gil Smolin, an Avian Bird Flu expert, noted on the Ron Owens Show on KGO Radio (January 5, 2006), that the flu was spread more quickly in the winter when there was a "lack of sunlight". Would man-made clouds be contributing to the lack of sunlight which might cause the Avian Bird flu to spread more quickly at other times of the year? Experimental weather modification programs could also exacerbate this problem by changing climate patterns, increasing man-made cloud cover, and changing our weather and climate patterns.

IMO - saying weather modification might worsen bird flu is just an opportunistic attempt to ride a hot topic. But could it be valid?

Hmmm. Maybe. We're in deep doodoo because nobody recognizes that everything is connected and each thing we do, large or small, has an impact. And experiments with weather modification does NOT look like a good plan from any angle.

So yeah, maybe weather modification could create a happy climate for bird flu to flourish. Any thoughts?

.

all i say is WOW!!!
that is the bestest, most informed, and well researched post i've seen so far.



wanna help me with my Eng Comp 211 research paper?

quote: 'You have voted soficrow for the Way Above Top Secret award. You have two more votes this month. '


[edit on 28-3-2006 by DirtyBoots]

Thanks Sofi,

nothing to really add but wanted to show my appreciation of a job well done!!

Best Wishes

J

Originally posted by soficrow
So yeah, maybe weather modification could create a happy climate for bird flu to flourish. Any thoughts?

Well, I'll take a wild stab....

My sense is that during winter months, shelter and food resources become more concentrated, and many solitary species of bird winter together. Obviously, the close concentration of animals provides the best opportunity for transmission. Then, this is followed by mating season, prolonging their aggregated numbers.

So if weather modification means prolonging winter...I suppose...

I'm not sure I get the "lack of sunlight" connection.

Since everything is thoroughly broke anyway, do you think someone could dial up some warmer weather here on the east coast? I know we've had an unnaturally warm winter, but it's been cold the last two weeks!


[edit on 28-3-2006 by loam]

Originally posted by loam

So if weather modification means prolonging winter...I suppose...

I'm not sure I get the "lack of sunlight" connection.

The virus lives longer in cool and cold weather - cloud cover keeps things cool.

Theoretically, H5N1 bird flu doesn't spread easily in summer - although some new reports are questioning that assumption.

.

Contradictions in the media are not unusual. But I find this one especially confusing because the contradiction is in the same piece, separated only by a few paragraphs...


Denmark confirms first case of H5N1 bird flu

A European Union reference laboratory has confirmed that a buzzard found dead in Denmark two weeks ago was infected with the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu, authorities said Tuesday. The dead bird found near Naestved, southeastern Denmark , on March 14, was the Nordic country's first case of the disease.

...So far, 11 cases of the virus have been found in Denmark. Danish authorities have established protection zones around the different locations where the birds have been found.

Likely, the new case is the new mutation - but that's not really clear, is it?

Lets just hope Darwin is right about that whole "survival of the fittest" thing if this flu thing really erupts into a modern plague. We canat least gamble for a better future down the road. Maybe mother nature is just tidying up the gene pool on the planet???

Just trying to find sunshine through the clouds here...

So if i understand correctly...
If we handle chicken as if it has Salmonella, and cook it properly, then there is absolutely no risk of eating the virus...

it will mainly occur by contamination of water supplies... well that tears it, boiled water from the first day it shows an American head...

then contact with feces... cool, I'll avoid them...

dont sleep with chickens... got it... I'll break up tonight!

and people wont be as contagious since it resides in lower respiratory areas, not upper...

Even with all the new info... it still hasn't killed 1000 people worldwide, and the variants are more worry, than fact right now...

it could turn into a super bug, that will wipe out humanity...
of course we thought the same of Polio, Small pox, and AIDS...
but nothin yet...

I dont want to downplay the danger... it is there...
I do want to act as the voice of moderate reason, that says, there seems to be more hype than is warranted in the news daily...

Let us not hermit away from humanity yet, but take moderate steps of prepardness


oH, my goodness... I almost forgot: good job sofi!

[edit on 28-3-2006 by LazarusTheLong]

As with Mad Cow, bird flu is not diagnosed unless there is clear evidence - a bleeding, stumbling or dead animal.

Cows are not tested for Mad Cow disease unless they are "downers" - and have stumbled and fallen on their way to slaughter. But the truth is - cows can have Mad Cow disease without showing any symptoms. At all.

Similarly, dead chickens are not tested for bird flu unless they have overt symptoms like "blood streaming from their cloacas and beaks." The official spin says producers and slaughterhouse workers will know if chickens have bird flu because they develop major, visible hemorrhages before they die.

NYT: If the bird flu strikes poultry farms, the farmers will know there is a problem. Before they die, the birds develop major hemorrhages, with blood streaming from their cloacas and beaks. When the flu gets to a poultry farm, farmers have to destroy their flocks, and poultry from infected farms cannot be sold for meat.

This is NOT TRUE. Chickens can die from bird flu without showing any clinical signs - as this September 2005 report from Japan clearly states. Just as cows can live with and die from Mad Cow disease without having any apparent clinical symptoms; chickens can live with and die from bird flu without having any apparent clinical symptoms.

Clinical ly, the affected chickens exhibited mortality without apparent clinical signs. Histologically, hepatocytic necrosis; necrosis of ellipsoids and follicles with fibrin in the spleen; necrosis with glial nodules in the brain stem, cerebrum, and cerebellum; necrosis of acinar cells in the pancreas; and necrosis of lymphoid tissues in intestinal lamina propria were seen. Occasionally, mild bronchiolitis, degeneration of smooth muscle fibers in the cecum, and mild tubulonephrosis were noted. Immunohistochemically, influenza virus antigens were detected often in the liver and spleen, heart, intestine, gizzard, proventriculus, and oviduct. In addition, antigens were seen also in the brain, kidney, pancreas, and ovary, but seldom in the lung and trachea. Virus antigen was mainly detected in the capillary endothelium and parenchymal cells. This suggests that virus excretion from the respiratory tract was not as prevalent as that from the digestive tract in the present cases.

Obviously, bird flu presents quite differently in chickens depending on the virus' point of entry. There is no reason to believe the same is not true for human beings.

One of the biggest problems with censoring publicly available information is that frontline agricultural and health workers get the same misinformation as the rest of the public. Then we're all screwed. Because no one knows the truth. Except the people making money from the crisis.

Originally posted by Benevolent Heretic

What I have done is gone to these sites and read about what I was interested in and printed a few things out to have on hand.

Comprehensive Survival Site (On-line book)
The Big List
The Old-Timer Page
Wilderness Survival
Survival and Preparedness Information
Survival Skills

And don't forget:

Nrky's PODcast - Survivalism 101

Thanks much Benevolent Heretic!

We posted at the same time and I missed yours! ...Hate it when that happens.

More from Hobby

www.fluwikie.com...
www.prepare-for-bird-flu.com...
www.stevequayle.com...

www.who.int...

From Freedomrik:

PRUDENT FOOD STORAGE


And... there are many threads dealing with herbs and natural treatments. My personal favorites are Tea Tree Oil and eucalyptus in a diffuser, and Lo Han Quo tea.


.

Originally posted by DaFunk13
Lets just hope Darwin is right about that whole "survival of the fittest" thing if this flu thing really erupts into a modern plague.

IMO - "The survival of the fittest " idea is so incomplete, twisted and misunderstood that it is almost entirely inaccurate.

The "fittest" have adapted to environmental change; they have acquired immunities, and evolved to survive in response to environmental pressures.

"Fitness," with respect to immunity, is seldom conferred in the bloodline - it more often results from low level exposures, and opportunity for the individual to adapt. Mother's milk and colostrum is far more likely to confer disease immunities to infants than genes or DNA - and it's healthier than vaccines.

Unlike most flu, this bird flu strikes young, healthy people far more often than the already-sick and elderly - indicating that it has been around for a long while, and that the sick and elderly have acquired immunity.

Mar. 11, 2006. Why does the H5N1 virus attack the young?

The Star's analysis shows that all but six of the 97 people who have died globally so far from bird flu were under 40. ...People, in other words, with the strongest immune systems and not, as one might expect, the elderly and those already sick. The median age was 19, and a quarter of them were under age 12. ...Children, teenagers and young adults are the unfortunate victims of the deadly H5N1 bird flu sweeping through poultry farms in Asia, Africa and now Europe.

WHO officials said this week there are three confirmed cases of suspected person-to-person transmission: * In January 2004, Ngo Le Hung, a 31-year-old Vietnamese schoolteacher, became infected and died from a chicken he bought for his wedding, and his two sisters also died. * In September 2004 a dying 11-year-old Sakuntala Premphasri infected her mother Pranee, 26, in Thailand and both died. And in July 2005 a 38-year-old father is believed to have infected his two daughters, aged one and eight - all three died. * Cheng said there may be other cases in which people became infected through human-to-human transmission, but there isn't enough evidence to prove it. There may also be many less severely ill people going unnoticed.

"But we haven't seen any substantial change in the virus and that is really the trigger we're watching for."

H5N1 bird flu is mutating, but still does not spread efficiently in the air - so most exposures are low level, and the virus enters the body by other routes. Bird flu spreads primarily by bodily fluids, and can stay alive a long, long time on surfaces, and in food and water.

Research on two routes of infection are available publicly: respiratory, via airborne droplets; and gastrointestinal, via contaminated food and water. The gastrointestinal symptoms are very different from the respiratory symptoms.

Information is not available on other possible points of entry into the body and the associated symptoms. Research describing the symptoms of low level and chronic exposure are not available to the public.

Authorities are not talking about how bird flu actually does spread except to say they don't know how it's getting around the world. The most comprehensive theory says the original spread occurred via infected fish and contaminated feed - over the course of decades. Many biologists say "bird" flu is at least partly responsible for the "Sixth Mass Extinction" the planet is now experiencing.

We canat least gamble for a better future down the road. Maybe mother nature is just tidying up the gene pool on the planet???

Just trying to find sunshine through the clouds here...

My research indicates this bug has been around since the early 1900's, recombining, mutating and creating "new" diseases.

It seems clear that the chronic disease epidemic is related - and that chronic disease also involves conferred immunities, at the same time that it causes disability.

So we are adapting. The big question is: Can we adapt quickly enough?

The point I was trying to make, Sofi, is how primarily H5N1, H1N1, H2N2 and the H3N2 have primarily killed off those who were in Nation's with weaker infrastructure. If you go through the historic records since the Russian Flu of 1889-1890 [H2N2] and then follow it up to the present H5N1, this is the primary link.

Also, the rate of death can directly reflect this, when you compare the Russian Influenza Pandemic and the Spanish Flu Pandemic. The books I have on the issue, seem to show a direct correlation between the region/quality of living and the fatalities - for example, Brevig where 85% of the population died when compaired with London which had no where near that level of fatalities - giving an estimated 20% of the World's Population and only 2.5% to 5% of those with it, dying from it.[1]

As for those without Health Insurance in the United State's, that is the sad state of affairs for the richest Nation - when they do not take care of their poor. Who will be the most at risk of this oncoming problem. Although, one reason as to why Older People might not be catching it/dying from it, is due to previous pandemics. I can think of which they have lived through which are very similar to the present one.

[1] John M. Barry, (2004). The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Greatest Plague in History.