Bird Flu: 29 New Countries in the Last Seven Weeks

Bird Flu Defies Control Efforts

The spread of avian influenza to at least 29 new countries in the last seven weeks — one of the biggest outbreaks of the virus since it emerged nine years ago — is prompting a sobering reassessment of the strategy that has guided efforts to contain the disease.

Since February, the virus has cut a wide swath across the globe, felling tens of thousands of birds in Nigeria, Israel, India, Sweden and elsewhere. Health officials in the United States say bird flu is likely to arrive in North America this year, carried by wild birds migrating thousands of miles to their summer breeding grounds.

The speed of its migration, and the vast area it has infected, has forced scientists to concede there is little that can be done to stop its spread across the globe.

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You see a number like that, and you realize how scary this really is.

Good find.

Scary indeed. It's spreading like wildfire, and seems to be more deadly. I wonder though - the stats depend totally on the reporting. And I don't think the reporting is what you'd call reliable.

I'm beginning to suspect more news is getting out because of the "sixth extinction" event - and the fact that wild animals are seriously at risk.

What do you think?

I agree on all counts...

This is setting up to be our worst nightmare...

God, I hope we are wrong!!!!!!

Originally posted by loam
I agree on all counts...

This is setting up to be our worst nightmare...

God, I hope we are wrong!!!!!!

Actually - I was thinking of it the other way around. Meaning there are more infected survivors than are reported. Which means the fatality rate is actually lower - and suggests that we are adapting to this all-new retooled world we have created.

But we still need to do some serious clean-up and lower exposure levels so our systems are not overwhelmed to death.


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Originally posted by soficrow
Actually - I was thinking of it the other way around. Meaning there are more infected survivors than are reported. Which means the fatality rate is actually lower - and suggests that we are adapting to this all-new retooled world we have created.

Sofi, I'm not convinced that the adaptation rate of complex organisms is that robust. Given the speed of the most serious variants, I don't think they can keep up.

Here's the biggest problem I have.... If I'm right, how long do you think it would take for us to even notice the massive penetration of the virus into wild animal populations? Several months, at best? Look at what's happened in just a few weeks with bird populations... Moreover, up until now, we aren't even looking at much in the wild, except for a few wild migratory bird populations and domesticated animals. That scares the hell out of me.

The fact that we now have water born transmission is an indication to me that that has probably been true from the beginning...and as others have said, likely accounts for the rapid global spread we are now witnessing.

I wish you were right, but I am very skeptical.


[edit on 27-3-2006 by loam]

Originally posted by loam

The fact that we now have water born transmission is an indication to me that that has probably been true from the beginning...and as others have said, likely accounts for the rapid global spread we are now witnessing.

Okay - I am grasping at straws. But - seems to me there have been numerous vectors from the beginning - early 1900's, NOT 1959 - including bodily fluids, and congenital transmission. As you know, I think the key agent is a prion hitchhiking on the virus - so it's everywhere, can't be killed because it's not alive.

I'm not convinced that we can adapt quickly enough - but I am certain we have a MUCH bigger headstart than most people realize. About 3-5 generations.

Point being: There is some hope. And it ain't genetic engineering.


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Excellent work, loam!

It is, in fact, scary.
We are facing a difficult year but I am sure, somewhere, they have to be investigating in order to find a way to stop it. If we will know when they find it or if they already have the key, who knows?

Can I make a question?
Why or how did the disease start?
Do we have an accurated information about it?

Also, I wonder why some people are not infected and others are, even though being exposed the same. We surely are missing something important.

What do people older than 40 years old have that people less than 40 do not have?

And the countdown has started...