Earth to have close brush with comet

for elsenorpompom

"While the first fragment will cross at approximately 10 million miles, lagging fragments threaten to collide. While astronomers have stated that the comet poses no direct threat, Julien argues that some fragments are too small to observe."

there are now 35 pieces+ lagging behind. be very glad that the biggies we know about will miss

but the prob is they are travelling at around 40,000 miles per hour.
there is no question.we WILL pass through the tail prgressively through smaller and smaller pieces"we hope and assume"

so while we are having a bit of fun "doomsaying" it,s actually a 'reasonable'possibillity that for the first time in recent history something big could hit. which would be no fun for anyone near to impact or close to a seaside town if it is off shore.

you can check
www.libertypost.org...
for "wacko" eric juliens notorious may 25 prediction
but he has supposed to decipher genuine orbits from

neo.jpl.nasa.gov...

let me know if you can plot the orbits. i,ve no blummin idea

by the way spencer maybe head up to "the loft" in aberdeen. second floor nightclub 'so you might not get your feet wet'and tell dave the soundtech to buy you a whisky on me

Finally someone sends me links that work and arent all to the Wacko guy who thinks the world is ending on the 25th of may. Not that I always ignore those types....but with something of this nature I tend to lean more towards hard science.

Agent I will attempt to plot those points...but that will be difficult specially since I do not have my loverly lil graphing calc anymore. All by hand.

And yes you are right we are at an increased probability of having actual earth strikes. But imho if there are stikes they will be particles smaller than a small-medium size rock...and thats before they tangle with our atmosphere.

The faster the comet fragments are going the MORE likely they are to skim across our atmosphere or break up. I know this sounds counter intuitive but because of the angles at which, or atleast the angles Nasa is saying, the comet fragments will be striking our atmosphere the faster they travel the more likely they are to either break up or skim. Take a rock for example. A flat rock will almost always skip across water. But even non-flat rocks if thrown at the right angle with the appropriate speed causes it skim across the lake.....of course eventually it does sink below the water.....

But thanks again for the links I will TRY and plot the points but yeah....cant do it now im at work till 7pm...its 450 right now.


Thanks again

And while i do despise most of humanity and some nights wish a comet would wipe us out...hopefully it doesnt.

El senor pom pom rides again

cool pom pom i,d be interested to know how it plots out.

could you please do a trajectory check on asteroid 2006gy2 too...

i,m so annoyed cos i lost the link
but there was a possibility of collision with this asteroid with one of the fragments and if so could sent fragment,asteroid,both or pieces flying everywhere into earths atmosphere

i,m sure everyone would appreciate a level headed guys opinion after all this funster doomsaying

www.livescience.com...

Eric Julien, a former air traffic controller and airport manager claims that on May 25, 2006 a fragment from Comet 73P/Schwassman- Wachmann is likely to strike the Earth and perhaps cause a planetary catastrophe. He predicts the comet fragment will impact somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean and create “mega” tsunami’s with 200-meter high waves that will devastate coastal areas and kill tens of millions.

Professional astronomers disagree with Mr. Julien and state that the comet poses no direct threat to Earth. Mr. Julien believes the fragment is too small to be detected by astronomers.

Hmmm…. If the fragment is to small to see, how can Mr. Julien predict exactly when and where it will strike?

C'mon. Can you really continue to believe this guy after all the holes in his idea have been blown wide open?

First here is the ideal data for a collision with Asteroid 2006GY2

newton.dm.unipi.it...:2006GY2;properel;gif

Bear with me here ive never plotted the trajectory of an Asteroid before.

But here I go...first and formost I used 11 points of reference for the asteroid....11 points over an 11 minute segement of observation. No reason why i chose 11 thats just how many I chose...here are the points and thier corresponding angles...

=Convert_Decimal("45° 23' 40.50""") 45.39458333°

=Convert_Decimal("45° 23' 47.90""") 45.39663889°

=Convert_Decimal("45° 23' 56.10""") 45.39891667°

=Convert_Decimal("45° 23' 03.60""") 45.38433333°

=Convert_Decimal("45° 23' 40.10""") 45.39447222°

=Convert_Decimal("45° 23' 44.90""") 45.39580556°

=Convert_Decimal("45° 23' 51.40""") 45.39761111°

=Convert_Decimal("45° 23' 00.80""") 45.38355556°

=Convert_Decimal("45° 23' 12.00""") 45.38666667°

=Convert_Decimal("45° 23' 12.70""") 45.38686111°

=Convert_Decimal("45° 23' 25.90""") 45.39052778°

So from earth the object is coming at us at a Fourty Five Degree angle. The angles for optimum Earth Penetration...as far as I know any ways are between 80-120°. Keep in mind I am a layman who is using only what he knows.I do not have a degree in Physics or Astrophysics for that matter. I just took thier numbers and converted them into numbers WE could understand. Now to trully plot the trajectory of the Asteroid i need the intial velocity from my point of observation...Velocity is distance divided by time. There was a degree change of 0.00405555°. So in 11 minutes the object had moved by 0.00405555° which translates to between approx 0.4461105km and 0.31957734km or 44.61105m and 31.957734m. The reason for the difference in numbers is because degrees dont translate well into linear numbers. At the equator a degree is 110km and at say 45degrees north its 78.8km. So the farther down i convert the numbers the less accurate they are just sos ya know. Making the velocity of the object between approx 4.055555m/s and 2.90525m/s. Making the speed of the object at around 14599.998meters/hour. So its cooking along quite quick. The object right now is approx 199549500km away from us and it tends to stay that way. The objects node seperation from earth is 1.3303 AU away from Earth. Meaning that when its orbit isnt crossing ours its that far away. Its orbit is 921.392 days...as opposed to our apprx 365 day orbit. As the object descends in its orbit meaning its coming back around it gets closer to approx 1057500km away. The link i posted at the top of this has the ideal data for an earth collision if you dont understand any of the terms feel free to Google them or U2U me if you cant find the information.

i will have the comet information later as it took me a while just to get this information. I hope I answered some of your questions in regards to this asteroid. I do not have the software nessecary to give you an actual course projection of the asteroid. All i can do is take the observable from earth data and transfer it into basic velocity and angle of either ascent or descent from our perspective.

Hope this helpes

El senor pom pom rides again

Whats important to note is that the eccentricity of this object is 0.493892 the max and min eccentricities for an earth impact are 0.5819 max and 0.4181min. So the eccentricity of it is right smack below the maximum. The asteroids inclination is also inbetween its too max's and mins for earth strike. So yes it is possible that there could be a strike but i am not educated enough to come up with the raw data. Give me a new CPU a really nice telescope and I might be able to...But seriously i didnt go to college for Physics. I did however do the best I could with the data I could find and I hope this is better than nothing for you Agent T.
This asteroid might have some intersting mining options. The asteroid is moving quickly but its not moving as quickly as say a comet or an asteroid formed from a planet destruction or being thrown by a larger asteroid. But thats a different topic. I will have the comet information just as soon as I can find the nessecary data.



[edit on 24-4-2006 by Elsenorpompom]

This is the information requested by Agent T in Regards to Comet Designated 73p....

This says it all in words that I cannot....if you need help converting U2U me or email me and I will send you the conversion equations.

Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann Professor A Schwassmann and A A Wachmann of Hamburg Observatory discovered their third periodic comet, on minor planet patrol plates taken on 1930 May 2.
www.ast.cam.ac.uk...

El senor pom pom rides again

Mod Edit: Big Quote – Please Review This Link.

[edit on 25-4-2006 by AgentSmith]

Well, i heard the man on Coast to Coast last night, and he sounds deranged! Thank the lord!....For a minute there, i was worried. A little French guy with nasal problems (I love the French, dont get me wrong) he just isnt convincing enough, PLUS this business about extraterrestrials allowing it to happen because they "know" about our plans with Iran.......Well, i dont swallow it. I dont think George, host of the show beleived him either.

This comet sounds eerie to me. I am not doomsdaying here, but I what I want to know is what the heck hit it to make it break appart like that. It had been going round and round for a long time with no problem. With all the pieces, it just seems like it was hit by something. If that is the case, wouldnt that change the route of the darn thing? Is there anyway to find out, or is it a wait and see kind of thing?

Originally posted by mrsdudara
I what I want to know is what the heck hit it to make it break appart like that. It had been going round and round for a long time with no problem.

Gravitational forces can do it. Also, as comets get nearer to the Sun they heat up and essentially boil away. Sometimes they boil in just the right way that they endup disintigrating.

Ok, so it basicly spirils closer and closer until it gets fried by the sun? That being the case, it most likely wont make it around again then.

.....and another one bites the dust

there are plenty of big rocks flying about out there, and IF this one does penetrate i will make a mess, considering its the size of a truck.

but at least its not the size of asteroid 2006 GY2, which i have heard is about 600 metres and comes ALOT closer than the coming comet in may and its about 10 days earlier too. and its been taken off the hazardous list too, but as we all know, if we are gonna take a big hit, we would probably not get the nod from the powers that be anyway.

and this huge asteroid 2006 GY2 looks like its gonna be really close in comparison

neo.jpl.nasa.gov...

Originally posted by the visitor

and this huge asteroid 2006 GY2 looks like its gonna be really close in comparison

neo.jpl.nasa.gov...

Which translates to roughly 1.6 million miles, yet I find it still too far away to be concerned about. Though, I also agree with some others that I doubt the prez would come on TV and tell us to go ahead and call the priest for last rites.

Fragment B has split again and spaceweather.com says it may split even further. This should provide a very good show in May.

www.spaceweather.com...

For folks who like comet prophecy and doomsday stuff to read -

www.newprophecy.net...

It incorporates Garabandal (which I don't believe in) along with
the comet thats coming through at the end of May.

Originally posted by FlyersFan
For folks who like comet prophecy and doomsday stuff to read -

www.newprophecy.net...

It incorporates Garabandal (which I don't believe in) along with
the comet thats coming through at the end of May.

May 6 2009 doesn't look good for Mars. Just an observation from the simulator.

oh come on there has only been 174 major hits with 5 nearly killing every living thing.dont worry snowball dont hurt or do they lol.

If someone wants to view a website with supposedly comet impact predictions from Nostradamus, the Bible, and even alien transmissions via crop circles all thrown into one, just go here www.barry.warmkessel.com...
They actually listed a copyright date of 2000 and gave a 2006 date for a possible comet impact but the alien transmissions via crop circles changed the date to March 2007. Don't you love how there often seems to be a later possible date if at first there is no success? Then another possible impact in 2012 if the first ones somehow miss. Of course the web site states that none of this information is backed up by science.

A big comet will hit the Earth one day, I just hope it's not while I'm around.

I'm hoping for a good meteor storm show from the comet debris. If scientists actually thought there might be something out there that could impact us, I feel confident we wouldn't be told about it unless some amateur detected it. Maybe I'm wrong though since I'm not a professional astronomer. I don't believe a car size piece of ice would do much damage at all unless someone got so lucky as to have it hit their house or car.

I should add that I agree with one statement on the web site I linked above. With the potential loss of most of mankind from a major comet strike, I'll agree that governments should spend some money on detection and research on ways to prevent such impacts. I believe this is already happening but I'm afraid there is nothing we can do to stop a big one even if we see it coming.


[edit on 26-4-2006 by orionthehunter]

Did you guys see this article in The Hindu?

Source
"It was seen to have broken into three bits in 1995, and had come 240 million kilometres from the earth. This time, it appears to have broken into 19 fragments and one of these will be just nine km away from the earth around May 12," Dr. Sidharth said.

9km? Reckon that's a misprint? That sounds pretty close to me.

Originally posted by twitchy
9km? Reckon that's a misprint? That sounds pretty close to me.

Yeah, probably... If it were coming as close as 9 km it would be coming as close as 0 km.

I have posted other relivant information on the following thread....

Thread Link

Information that can be gained here are as follows: -

Orbital diagrams of the comet
an Earth Strike Simulator program for measuring strike effects
A VERY interesting link to the Air force’s De-classified documentations

+ More.

So feel free to check it out!!

NeoN HaZe.


[edit on 27-4-2006 by Neon Haze]