Excessive rain in Hawaii

Hawaii has been in the grip of a highly unusual rainfall period for the last three weeks. There has been one storm after another impacting the islands, and nearly continuous rain falling.

During this week a resovior dam on the island of Kauai failed, due to the excessive rains. Two people have been confirmed dead, with 5 missing still.

One survivor described "a tidal wave coming over the trees." Another said it sounded like a jetliner was crashing in the lush, green valley. A third compared it with Niagara Falls.

At least one person was killed and seven people were missing after a dam broke Tuesday morning on the Hawaiian island of Kauai, sending almost 500 million gallons of water down an island valley.

"Sounded like a 747 jet crashing here in the valley, all the trees popping and snapping and everything," resident John Hawthorne told The Associated Press. "It was just a horrendous sound, and it never quit." (Watch how a half-billion gallons of water devastated a Hawaii valley -- 2:16)

www.cnn.com...

The failure of the dam caused another resovior in the area to fill to overflowing, and come near the failure point. At one point, they were pumping 2000 gallons of water a minute out of the Morita resovior, and the total water levels ROSE two feet.

The total rainfall in the last three weeks, has been equal, or higher than the usual rainfall totals for three MONTHS.

HAWAII HAS BEEN IMPACTED BY A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS BEGINNING AROUND FEBRUARY 18. EACH OF THESE 4 SYSTEMS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE AND BROUGHT UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AND TAPPED ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH IN THE DEEP
TROPICS. THIS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE WINDS
TURNED TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH HELPED FOCUS MOST OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINS ON THE SOUTHEAST FACING SIDES OF MANY OF THE ISLANDS.

DURING THE FIRST EVENT...FEBRUARY 19-24...THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST
RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS ON KAUAI AND OAHU. DURING THE
MARCH 1-3 EVENT...THE WINDWARD SIDE OF OAHU WAS PARTICULARLY HARD
HIT BY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING. THE EVENT FROM MARCH 8-10 WAS
FOCUSED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND...CENTRAL OAHU AND KAUAI
WITH FLOODING OCCURRING IN THOSE LOCATIONS. THE ONGOING EVENT HAS
PRODUCED ADDITIONAL FLOODING ON KAUAI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

TO PUT THE AMOUNTS IN PERSPECTIVE...THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ACROSS THE
HARDEST HIT AREAS THE LAST 3 WEEKS IS EQUIVALENT TO WHAT SHOULD
NORMALLY OCCUR FOR THE JANUARY THROUGH MARCH PERIOD. ON KAUAI...
THE RECENT RAINFALL IS 3 TO 6 TIMES THE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE
ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH. ON OAHU...TOTALS ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 TIMES THE
AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR MARCH...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS GENERALLY
ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE. MOLOKAI AND LANAI HAVE MISSED MOST OF THE
RAIN...AS HAD MUCH OF MAUI. THE EXCEPTION ON MAUI BEING THE
SOUTHEAST FLANK OF HALEAKALA...THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. THIS
IS WHERE THE PREVAILING SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE HAD THE MOST IMPACT
WITH PRODUCING RAINFALL. THE BIG ISLAND IS AN INTERESTING SITUATION
IN CONTRASTS. MUCH OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SIDES OF THE ISLAND
HAVE RAINFALL TOTALS THAT ARE 2 TO 4 TIMES THE AMOUNT THAT FALLS IN
MARCH. AGAIN THIS IS DUE TO THE PREDOMINANT SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE WEST
SIDE OF THE ISLAND HAS HAD VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL AS THE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN BLOCKED BY THE LARGE MOUNTAINS OF MAUNA KEA AND
MAUNA LOA. AT SOME OF THESE SITES...RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE BELOW
NORMAL. EVEN LAST WEEK...A WILDFIRE BROKE OUT IN THE DRY NORTHWEST
PART OF THE ISLAND BY PUU WAAWAA.

LOCATION TOTAL RAIN MAX IN 24HRS

KAUAI
MOUNT WAIALEALE 106.08 17.94
WAILUA 39.36 6.11
HANALEI RIVER 34.82 8.01
KAPAHI 30.53 6.41
LIHUE AIRPORT 28.85 5.85
HANALEI 26.28 5.46
LIHUE 25.85 4.79
OMAO 22.53 5.78
WAINIHA 21.16 7.25
PORT ALLEN 20.56 5.43
PRINCEVILLE AIRPORT 16.92 3.29
ANAHOLA 16.15 4.78
MOLOAA 14.92 2.70
KOKEE 14.82 3.70
KALAHEO 14.63 5.27
MAKAHA RIDGE 10.85 3.17

OAHU
LOCATION
POAMOHO 63.36 10.69
WILSON TUNNEL 39.12 7.05
PUNALUU PUMP 34.92 12.73
LULUKU 34.47 5.85
WAIHEE PUMP 30.64 6.25
AHUIMANU LOOP 28.47 5.14
NUUANU UPPER 26.98 4.35
MAUNAWILI 23.74 5.86
ST. STEPHENS 23.68 4.62
KAHUKU 23.43 6.86
MANOA - LYON ARBORETUM 21.59 3.04
KAWAILOA 18.00 5.00
KII 17.99 5.46
HAKIPUU MAUKA 15.42 6.61
OLOMANA FIRE STATION 15.31 4.15
KANEOHE MCBH 13.63 3.19
WAIMANALO 13.52 5.22
PALISADES 12.67 3.84
BELLOWS AFS 10.87 3.67
MAKUA RIDGE 10.03 2.6

www.prh.noaa.gov...

OMG! and we all think of Hawaii as this calm and sunny paradise, and now its being all washed away??

I hope it can TAKE this awfull pounding!!

MORE WEIRD WEATHER....................

Kauai is currently in the midst of evacuating several towns where flooding is imminent, or ocurring. The Waikomo stream has overflowed and is flooding, and the Elua resovior is full and in danger of overflowing at any time. Heavy rains and thunderstorms are continuing.

Voluntary flooding evacuations are being conducted in three communities as severe rain continues to drive across the southern and western parts of the island.

Waikomo Stream is over its banks in Koloa, prompting the evacuation of a number of areas in that region.

In Kalaheo, Alexander & Baldwin's Elua Reservoir was full and the company urged nearby residents to evacuate.

the.honoluluadvertiser.com...

This is the latest weather radar picture for Kauai.

img148.imageshack.us...

[edit on 3/17/2006 by Zaphod58]

I would surmise the current "la nina" pattern has some bearing on this and the shifting of the MJO.

Let's hope it goes to a nuetral ENSO soon.

What's 'MJO' and 'ENSO'?

Wiki is a good tool for many acronyms:
en.wikipedia.org...
en.wikipedia.org...

Recent data:
Experimental MJO Predictions
Multivariate ENSO Index

Oh, thanks!

I didn't know that.

uh oh, the thing is unfortunately these types of things don't matter to bush. It will start to matter once the U.S. becomes affected. But yea the weather is changing. No mo honeymoons in Hawaii, its gonna become a brand new scuba resort.

uh oh, the thing is unfortunately these types of things don't matter to bush. It will start to matter once the U.S. becomes affected. But yea the weather is changing. No mo honeymoons in Hawaii, its gonna become a brand new scuba resort.

Not to rain on your party (Ha! A pun!) but what does Bush have to do with La Nina?

I was thinking La Nina is to blame too, but I think I'm unclear on the effects of a La Nina.

isn't this year's La Nina supposed to be really strong and stay longer or something like that? I know it is supposed to mean more hurricanes in the atlantic, but wasn't it supposed to mean less rain for the pacific?

btw, I had almosted booked a vacation to the Big Island for April, but as I was shopping online, I heard about the dam break and instantly changed my mind. I was scared enough of the volcanoes but this added factor completely squashed my plans.

Originally posted by worldwatcher
isn't this year's La Nina supposed to be really strong and stay longer or something like that? I know it is supposed to mean more hurricanes in the atlantic, but wasn't it supposed to mean less rain for the pacific?

WW your stirring me tropical weather bones early and catching me unprepared.
I usually slack off on tropical weather watching in the winter and play golf

It's not that a strong La Nina and is bordering on nuetral.
Note the blue area is on the decline (right side of the chart).



More tropical storm activity in the Atlantic and less tropical storms in the Pacific and a chance for above normal precipitation in Hawaii is the general rule for La Nina conditions.

NOAA ANNOUNCES U.S. SPRING OUTLOOK
Map indicates 55% wetter for Hawaii

Wet months expected with La Nina's return -Honolulu Star-Bulletin

Florida meteorological buddy of mine says Gator state won't be under the gun this year. We shall see, but he's usually right. Considering global warming is changing atmospherics and ocean currents, plus old Sol might start acting up sooner than expected to change trade wind patterns, it's roll the bones forecasting imo in regards to who gets the worst of it in the Atlantic-Gulf-Caribbean region. In any event, it's still supposed to be another monster of a season.

Doc Gray will be coming out with a new hurricane forecast on April 4, 2006,
but for now here's the old one from December.
hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu...





[edit on 17-3-2006 by Regenmacher]

Yes I'm afraid weather has changed all over the world,in So Calif we are having one of coldest winters in a while,I think the earth's axis did change and from now on things will be different from now on,plus the season changes are almost a month off,makes for a strange scenario,think this is just tip of the iceberg

If I'm not mistaken, the dam was built with earth and could probably have been a lot sturdier. My gut tells me the soil on the island is too sandy to built a proper dam.

The rainfall wasn't even that severe, all things considered.

It was an earthen dam, but it had been standing for a very long time already and was very sturdy. The soil isn't as sandy as a lot of people think out here. Some areas are, but most aren't.

We've had almost 24 hours with no rain (it's a miracle). The next storm is built up, and rolling over us now however. The cloud cover is here, and the pressure is dropping fast which is usually a good indicator of imminent rainfall. They're forecasting at least another week. And probably another storm after that.

The latest weather radar images for Kauai.





[edit on 3/18/2006 by Zaphod58]

Well we got a whole day and a half with no rain. They're bracing, and sand bagging for our FIFTH straight week of rain. There is a new storm moving over us tonight, and they're expecting a MINIMUM of two more days of rain before the next break. People are preparing to evacuate tonight. Waterspouts have been sighted, and the Kauai dams are being monitored due to heavy rainfall already hitting that island.

Oahu had 5 inches of rain in less than 12 hours recently resulting in massive floods on the Leeward side of the island this time. The Ewa Beach area had water on the roads up to or over the hoods of some cars.

Current radar picture of Kauai and Oahu:

Originally posted by Zaphod58
Oahu had 5 inches of rain in less than 12 hours recently resulting in massive floods on the Leeward side of the island this time. The Ewa Beach area had water on the roads up to or over the hoods of some cars.

Hey Zaphod, send some of that rain this way to the mainland aka the Pineapple Express
Wonder if Kanaloa is listening lately?

Giant Waterspout Funnels Over Ocean
A lingering weather front caused this waterspout to be formed in front of Marine Corps Base Hawaii at Kaneohe at about 4 p.m. yesterday. Today's weather forecast calls for heavy rains in the next few days.

I'm not sure what the rainfall totals from the storm last night are, but that was the hardest I've heard it rain here in many many many years. It just kept getting harder and harder. From the looks of the GOES sattelite map there's another storm that will be here sometime early next week at the earliest.

Ok, nobody anywhere EVER gets to complain to me about the weather.

Hawaii is currently at (and I'm not joking here) 40 days and 40 nights of constant rain. I talked to a friend of mine today who told me that a US Navy weather forecaster she knows said they're predicting another FIVE WEEKS of nearly constant rainfall.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH

Warning Issue Date: 0242 GMT MAR 31 2006
Warning Expiration:

...Flash flood watch remains in effect through Friday evening... The flash flood watch continues for * all hawaiian islands. * through Friday evening * a surface trough to the west...An upper-level low to the northwest...And abundant moisture over the state will keep conditions unstable. More waves of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect the islands through Friday. * in many areas...The ground is saturated from heavy rain over the past several weeks. Any additional rainfall May run off... Quickly leading to flash flooding. Take the necessary precautions now to mitigate possible effects of flash flooding in your area. Be prepared to take quick action if a flash flood warning is issued or you observe heavy rain. $$ r ballard

Flash Flood Watch

Watch Issue Date: 0242 GMT MAR 31 2006
Watch Expiration:

fc_watches_pretext0%%

...Flash flood watch remains in effect through Friday evening...

The flash flood watch continues for

* all hawaiian islands.

* through Friday evening

* a surface trough to the west...An upper-level low to the

northwest...And abundant moisture over the state will keep

conditions unstable. More waves of heavy showers and thunderstorms

are expected to affect the islands through Friday.

* in many areas...The ground is saturated from heavy rain over the

past several weeks. Any additional rainfall May run off...

Quickly leading to flash flooding.

Take the necessary precautions now to mitigate possible effects

of flash flooding in your area. Be prepared to take quick action

if a flash flood warning is issued or you observe heavy rain.

$$

r ballard

www.weathercentral.com...

[edit on 3/31/2006 by Zaphod58]