NEWS: There is a 50% Chance that Bird Flu Could Mutate Into an Easy Trasmitted Form.

According to Robert G. Webster, one of the few bird flu experts, there is an even odd that bird flu could mutate into a form that would be easy to trasnmit from human to human. Webster states that people should make personal preparations, that he has a 3 month reserve of food and water in case there is an outbreak, and that we should face the fact that 50% of the population could be killed in the worst case scenario.



According to Webster, he personally believes this could happen and that people should be making preparations by buying food and water, which he has done.

This is a problem for the whole world if bird flu mutates into an easily transmitted form that will affect humans.

Is the world ready if this scenario becomes a reality?

People should make personal preparations because there is no way for any government in the world to know into which strain the bird flu virus might mutate into, one vaccinne which would work on one strain of the bird flu will not work on another mutated form of the virus, hence this expert believes that people should be making their own personal preparations just in case the worse does happen.

In the same article another researcher Dr. Anne Moscona, from the New York Weill Cornell Medical Center, explains that it is possible for bird flu to mutate, or it might be possible for it not to mutate, but if it does mutate she thinks that scientists will not be able to contain it.

"If bird flu becomes not bird flu but mutates into a form that can be transmitted between humans, we could then have a spread like wildfire across the globe," Moscona said.
...............
"It may not do it. There may just be too many changes. The virus may not be able to be a human virus," Moscona said.
............
"I don't think that once we have human-to-human transmission, it's going to be possible to contain it," she said.

That is why nearly every viral scientist in America, perhaps the world, is waiting and watching the avian flu virus to see if it remains just a threat to birds or changes its genetic code and becomes a deadly threat to humans as well.

Excerpted from original link.

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[edit on 15-3-2006 by Muaddib]

50%? There's a 50% chance anything can happen. It either happens or it doesnt.

There's a 100% chance that they are using this story for ratings, though...and to make people paranoid.

And people "prepared" for Y2K, but that never happened. Well, the year did, but all of the things that were predicted to happen didn't.

And I seriously doubt that 50% of the population would die.

[edit on 3-15-2006 by elderban]

I don't see anyone in the article saying this will happen for certain, even though some are stating their own opinion about what they think will happen. They are mentioning that people should be prepared if it does happen, which is possible.

Why is it that some people immediately want to assume that when "warnings" are given, the main purpose is to "make everyone afraid"?....

If the weather channel says right now that weather conditions at this moment seem to indicate a very real possibility of an F5 tornado forming (place name of place here), you actually think they are just trying to scare you? or are they trying to "warn you"?....



[edit on 15-3-2006 by Muaddib]

There's a big difference between an F5 tornado and the bird flu. For example, the guy that reported this has already purchased 3 months of food...for something that might or might not happen. He's paranoid. And, because of this report, others will run out and do the same.

I can tell you that there's a 50% chance you'll die tomorrow, and if not, a 50% chance you'll die the next day, and if not...well, you get the picture. Eventually, one day I'm going to be right. But, telling you this would make you think about it, and - as Y2K pointed out - some people would obsess about it.

Maybe we're better off not knowing. Sometimes too much information can create more hysteria than the actual epidemic itself. Look at the anthrax scare...six (6) people died, yet the entire country was paranoid over it.

If we die, we die...if we don't we don't. Sure, you can take Tamiflu and make someone richer, but even that may not keep you from dying. And, if we don't die of the bird flu, we're going to die of something eventually...you can't live forever.

Heck, eventually mankind itself will become extinct, and eventually our planet will be engulfed by the sun and all life will cease to exist. But, why obsess about it?

I think people nowadays worry so much about dying that they never really live.

How exactly is it bad to tell people "it is better to be prepared than sorry"?

I can assure you that if nothing was said about bird flu on the newws or by anyone and we suddenly had an outbreak in the U.S. or any other country, people are going to start blaming the government/s, and scientists.

This is just another case of "damned if you do, damned if you don't".

This man is not your "regular average joe" saying, "ok, you have a 50% chance you are going to die tomorrow"..... This is a scientist, and one of the experts of bird flu saying "imo it is better to be prepared than to be sorry", big difference in case you don't notice.

[edit on 16-3-2006 by Muaddib]

"Experts" also said that all the computers of the world would crash in 2000.

And, I'm sure if you look that you'll find another "Expert" that will say that there's a 50% chance that it WONT happen.

Although, I doubt ABC News would report that.

My first post was more or less to point out that news sources "look" for the negative and never point out the positive much anymore. Positive news stories don't get ratings.

Although it is true that "positive news don't get a rating" you cannot use this as an argument to say that bird flu is not an issue and that it won't happen. There have been already reports of people getting the virus when they come in contact with bird's dropppings which are infected.

There is a real possibility that this event could occur, viruses do mutate and H5N1 could mutate into any strain that could be easily transmitted to humans. Hiding our heads under the sand is not going to make this virus go away, forewarned is forearmed.

This is a warning, if you don't think it is going to happen, and you don't want to make preparations that is your choice, but in this case i believe it is important for people to know that it could happen.

[edit on 15-3-2006 by Muaddib]

Here is a map on the spread of bird flu from July to Oct 26 2005.



The map plus some information on the spreading of the virus in those 4 months in 2005 can be found at.

news.bbc.co.uk...

Here is an excerpt from that article.

But as H5N1 spreads west from its original hotspot of south-east Asia, there is mounting concern that it may combine with a human strain to produce a mutation that is more dangerous and difficult to combat.

Again, if anyone wants to see this as fearmongering, that is their choice, but imo i would prefer knowing if there is a possibility for this to happen than being caught unprepared and without notice.

Some other links about the spread of bird flu.

news.bbc.co.uk...

www.nature.com...

[edit on 16-3-2006 by Muaddib]

What fear-mongering? Fear mongering is when you raise the alert to fuschia or whatever it is color you've got on your terror-alert system. This is just a fact, that bird flu is spreading, and spreading fast at that.

Will it eventually evolve into a strain that jumps from person to person easily? That's the question. Anyway, here's an updated map as of 8th March 2006 (from one of loam's posts):

According to a story I read yesterday, H5N1 is no closer to mutating now than it was before. Further, most scientists believe that if it mutates to become human to human transmissable it will be less virulent as well. Moreover, I just read tonight where Amantadine (a widely available anti-viral medication) may well be effective in treating most of the existing H5N1 strains. Finally, two days ago there was an article on the news saying that an effective vaccine for H5N1 has been developed and is available--mind you the vaccine is for the non human to human form of this strain. Taken all together, it seems the possibility of a pandemic is slowly receeding, not gaining.

Only time will tell Astronomer, only time will tell. But isn't it better to be prepared just in case?

People shouldn't wait for a disaster to make preparations, by then it would be too late. Anyone could have some extra canned food in storage and if nothing happens they can use the old cans and replace them with new ones just in case anything does happen.

It doesn't have to be because of bird flu. Forewarned is always forearmed. I am of the opinion that it is better to be prepared than to have to to look for a remedy when it is too late.

Completely concur with your last post Muaddib. Prevention is by far the best route to take when it comes to this flu strain and one of the best ways to prevent someone in your family getting it is to stay away from it. Doing so, of course, entails having food, water, medicine & supplies stocked in sufficient quantity that you don't need to be out in the public any more than is absolutely necessary. Other than that, cleanliness of your home & self (especially hands) can limit the ability of the virus to spread. To significantly lessen the likelihood of getting infected by airborne viruses, simple air filtration masks and an HVAC input filter/sanitizer (such as ultra-violet lights) will work.

By all accounts we are way overdue for a major pandemic (above and beyond AIDS which is one in slow motion) with the Spanish Flu of 1918 being the last one. It killed more in just a few months, estimated at 40 million people worldwide, than all the combatants in World War did in 4 years of no holds barred fighting. What is fasinating and seriously concerns me is that the Spanish Flu spread around the world in just a few months without the benefit of global transportation. With the system that we have in place today, all I can say is OI VIE!!! It will be a nightmare when it comes no matter what it is. The Bird Flu is serious, no doubt, but it is my feeling, and it is a gut one at that, that it won't amount to a hill of beans...the God's have a perverse sense of humor and it will be the one we don't expect, and the one that we aren't looking for that will sneak up and bite us in the arse.

Rational Paranoia

History is full of bad things happening, and if anything, warns us that not only can they happen again, but new bad things we don't expect can happen as well.

Does that mean H5N1 will mutate into a human-to-human transmittable form and wipe out half the world's human population?

Nope. No way to tell.

But being prepared for interruptions in the food and water supply due to any reason is just good sense, because there are many, many ways access to these things could break down.

Let's not forget that H5N1 has already had devastating impacts on poultry production wherever it has struck, and we can well expect that to be a major problem regardless of whether H5N1 mutates or not.

And poultry supplies may not be the only sources of sustenance adversely affected by H5N1, since food or water exposed to the droppings of infected birds -- including wild, migratory birds -- can potentially become deadly to humans, without mutation.

As an example, many reservoirs used for storing drinking water serve as stopover points and habitats for migratory birds. Would typical municipal water treatment regimes kill H5N1?

I haven't seen a single reasonable argument against preparing for the unexpected, but plenty of reasonable arguments for doing so -- the lessons of history being chief among them.

There's no point in worrying about misfortune, and no harm in preparing for it.

Anticipating real and possible threats is not paranoia.




[edit on 3/16/2006 by Majic]