Global Systemic Rupture

Global Systemic Rupture

The Laboratoire européen d’Anticipation Politique Europe 2020 (LEAP/E2020) now estimates to over 80% the probability that the week of March 20-26, 2006 will be the beginning of the most significant political crisis the world has known since the Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, together with an economic and financial crisis of a scope comparable with that of 1929. This last week of March 2006 will be the turning-point of a number of critical developments, resulting in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a major crisis, disregard any American or Israeli military intervention against Iran. In case such an intervention is conducted, the probability of a major crisis to start rises up to 100%, according to LEAP/E2020.

An Alarm based on 2 verifiable events
The announcement of this crisis results from the analysis of decisions taken by the two key-actors of the main on-going international crisis, i.e. the United States and Iran:

--> on the one hand there is the Iranian decision of opening the first oil bourse priced in Euros on March 20th, 2006 in Teheran, available to all oil producers of the region ;

--> on the other hand, there is the decision of the American Federal Reserve to stop publishing M3 figures (the most reliable indicator on the amount of dollars circulating in the world) from March 23, 2006 onward [1].

These two decisions constitute altogether the indicators, the causes and the consequences of the historical transition in progress between the order created after World War II and the new international equilibrium in gestation since the collapse of the USSR. Their magnitude as much as their simultaneity will catalyse all the tensions, weaknesses and imbalances accumulated since more than a decade throughout the international system.

More...

Disturbing probability or paranoid raving? Dunno... You be the judge...

I'm still digesting the thing...

[edit on 11-3-2006 by loam]

Thank you for the link. And the text is also available in German & French, cool.

The reading was really interesting. At least we won't have to wait too much time to see if they are right or wrong. That's the only positive thing because what they're saying isn't funny at all.

~~

characterizing it as; Global Systemic Rupture
puts the anticipated events in a different light...

if you'll look up K Wave, 120 year cycle
one might suspect that "LEAP/E2020" is employing the K Wave
as one element in their forcasting formula.

from diagnosing past K Wave , we can expect that in the next
few years, the world will hit the 'wall of worry' phase of K Wave
and possibly the 'deflation phase' which comes at the final years
of the 120 year cycle
(this K Wave ends ~2007-2014...a pretty large window, eh?)

one can & may roll with the punches, and not experience 'rupture'
but that's up to each individual & how they view & react to events.

EDIT; the word, word -> into world...miss spelling corrected


[edit on 11-3-2006 by St Udio]

Hmmm...

The more I read on the Federal Reserve's decision to stop publishing M3 figures, the more suspicious I become concerning what is happening...

On it's face, this makes no sense...and it is clear that the markets are disturbed by it as well.... Given the potential impact, I'm surprised more people aren't talking about this.

Awesome Link. I have said for years that part of the Gulf War was to stop Iraq from valuing oil in Euros, rather than dollars. It is what it is. End time prophecies about changing currencies might just be upon us. As to the RFID chips, thsy can stick it where the sun doesn't shine.

Well, certainly the way these people have combined all these potential factors into such an alarmist title is worthy of note. But as you mentioned loam, the M3 issue is new to me. And I must say, if you combine that knowledge with what resides in the Money Masters videos, this becomes even more alarming, for real. There is something brewing, and it is not good. Watch these videos loam, and you'll see what I am saying.

There is over 3 hours worth, so you better make some coffee. But by the third, you're probably going to need a drink or two.

video.google.com...

Originally posted by loam
On it's face, this makes no sense...and it is clear that the markets are disturbed by it as well.... Given the potential impact, I'm surprised more people aren't talking about this.

Discussion on the bourse has been going on for some time. For a good opposing view on the bourse, here's an informative article that Grady supplied in another thread:

Bourse

The M3 figures are more puzzling. Why has the US decided to stop supplying them? According to the Fed:

External Source


www.federalreserve.gov...
M3 does not appear to convey any additional information about economic activity that is not already embodied in M2 and has not played a role in the monetary policy process for many years. Consequently, the Board judged that the costs of collecting the underlying data and publishing M3 outweigh the benefits.

Others believe that the decision to stop printing the figures is an attempt to hide the rate of inflation in the US. Hyperinflation is on the horizon, if they are to be believed.


[edit on 11-3-2006 by jsobecky]

Well it all reads pretty good, doesn't it? But I just can't get my mind around to buying into it. Certainly a change is close, but that drastic of a change?

That's why I suggested the opposing article on the bourse:

www.atimes.com...
The origins of the oil bourse
The idea of creating a new trading platform in Iran to trade oil and to create a new crude-oil benchmark apparently originated with the former director of the London International Petroleum Exchange, Chris Cook. In a January 21 article in Asia Times Online (What the Iran 'nuclear issue' is really about), Cook explained the background. Describing a letter he had written in 2001 to the governor of the Iranian Central Bank, Dr Mohsen Nourbakhsh, Cook explained what he advised then:
In this letter I pointed out that the structure of global oil markets massively favors intermediary traders and particularly investment banks, and that both consumers and producers such as Iran are adversely affected by this. I recommended that Iran consider as a matter of urgency the creation of a Middle Eastern energy exchange, and particularly a new Persian Gulf benchmark oil price.

It is therefore with wry amusement that I have seen a myth being widely propagated on the Internet that the genesis of this "Iran bourse" project is a wish to subvert the US dollar by denominating oil pricing in euros.

Emphasis added.

Greetings Fellow Believers,

Global Crises are no longer suprising. The 120 year intervals have been known for over 300 years.

Umberto Ecco is a prolific writer, dabbling in historical fact and mind-bending mysticism. According this author--the Illuminati meets every 120 years to coordinate their energies to shape global affairs.

Homo Sapiens crave symbolism. The Illuminati (if they actually exist) are aware of the incessant need for human beings to have some measurable scope to their existence.

I personally find the belief in a secret organization,whose purpose is to control the world with fear and superstition, to be a matter of public record and public skepticism.

There are those among us who devote their lives to expose this supposed "secret society". I cannot expect rational observers to believe that such a society exists. Unfortunately, symbolism is a very fickle mistress indeed.

Originally posted by jsobecky
That's why I suggested the opposing article on the bourse:

www.atimes.com...
The origins of the oil bourse
The idea of creating a new trading platform in Iran to trade oil and to create a new crude-oil benchmark apparently originated with the former director of the London International Petroleum Exchange, Chris Cook. In a January 21 article in Asia Times Online (What the Iran 'nuclear issue' is really about), Cook explained the background. Describing a letter he had written in 2001 to the governor of the Iranian Central Bank, Dr Mohsen Nourbakhsh, Cook explained what he advised then:
In this letter I pointed out that the structure of global oil markets massively favors intermediary traders and particularly investment banks, and that both consumers and producers such as Iran are adversely affected by this. I recommended that Iran consider as a matter of urgency the creation of a Middle Eastern energy exchange, and particularly a new Persian Gulf benchmark oil price.

It is therefore with wry amusement that I have seen a myth being widely propagated on the Internet that the genesis of this "Iran bourse" project is a wish to subvert the US dollar by denominating oil pricing in euros.

Emphasis added.

It is not necessarily that the bourse's INTENTIONS are to subvert US currency ... but it appears more and more the US takes to be that way and will do whatever is necessary to prevent it. My two lincolns.

Moreover, I have read all of Cook's materials through the links found in jsobecky's source. I don't think Cook is saying what jsobecky thinks he's saying... I also note with interest that Mr. Cook isn't very sympathetic to US interests.

Here's an interesting statement:

The realpolitik is of course that those in power in the US and Iran have the reason they give - and the real reason - for what they do: and for the US, the real reason is and has been for many years energy security above any other consideration.

The Tehran Oil Bourse: What the Iran 'nuclear issue' is really about

OK, I just ran across excellent threads by Gools and Dark Magician on the same topic:

Petrodollar Warfare: Dollars, Euros and the Upcoming Iranian Oil Bourse

Beginning of major world crisis?

(Sorry, I did not see these earlier when I posted this thread. )

In any event, we will learn soon enough whether these two items have the predicted impact.

Originally posted by loam
Moreover, I have read all of Cook's materials through the links found in jsobecky's source. I don't think Cook is saying what jsobecky thinks he's saying... I also note with interest that Mr. Cook isn't very sympathetic to US interests.

What I think Cook is saying is that advice he gave to the Iranians in 2001 was somehow misconstrued into a theory that Iran plans to subvert the dollar. Sounds plausible to me, and I'll even submit to fiverz theory:

It is not necessarily that the bourse's INTENTIONS are to subvert US currency ... but it appears more and more the US takes to be that way and will do whatever is necessary to prevent it.

Interestingly enough, Cook's article was the first one I have read that does not support the conspiracy theory. All other articles I have read on the Iranian Oil Bourse do support it.

Originally posted by jsobecky
Interestingly enough, Cook's article was the first one I have read that does not support the conspiracy theory. All other articles I have read on the Iranian Oil Bourse do support it.

Agreed. That is the result of my research as well...

This topic is on fire on most of the financial boards.

Yes, that is very scary indeed. I guess the only that can be done is to wait and see what happens. No matter what evidence is put out there is always that slight chance that nothing will happen.

I recommend this document for people to read as well. It is highly informative.

Energy Bulletin: The End Of Dollar Hegemony

I think this is totally real and I'm preparing.

Does anyone have any input on what commodity, besides gold, would be good to have on hand? I have looked and I can't really find anything. I'm interested in buying something that could be used as currency if this thing gets as bad as I think it might.

Any ideas?

Alcohol?

Thanks.

i mean, everything Basic and Simple will be of great value, i mean no one will have a use for money or seashells, gold coins (other then smelting) i mean you grab some solid suvival camping gear an i beat your king of the mountain , or the all great Walmart.

Think about anything that takes a fortune to make would be of great value as well, anything with extensive man hours, anything that is overall going to be unable to be produced in any easy means will be the new Gold, we will turn into a great barter system of madmax/waterworld rebels lol

Lets just hope we will run over this Lump like roadkill or else rewatch all the madmax movies an learn the moves an lingo cuz your in for a bumpy ride

Invest in solar cells and batteries people, im serious. I cant see anything more valuable in the coming years. They'll be the most sought after item soon enough, gold is pretty but it cant run a radio.