Is Russia preparing for nuclear war?

A brief glance at Russia's history should be enough to explain their paranoia.
They've been invaded how many times now? Losing how many millions of lives?

Preparing for the worst seems simply a sensible precaution when your history shows you that the worst can and will happen...

Originally posted by xmotex
A brief glance at Russia's history should be enough to explain their paranoia.
They've been invaded how many times now? Losing how many millions of lives?

Preparing for the worst seems simply a sensible precaution when your history shows you that the worst can and will happen...

Russia indeed has had a history going way back to Peter the Great of having brutal dictators who wipe out vast millios of people on a whim. It's in this tradition of wholesale slaughter of its own citizens and maniacal unstable leaders that it's in the worlds interests to monitor their leadership very closely as the installation of ultra nationalist elements in Moscow will spell a great deal of trouble for the West.

Young Russian people I've talked to are quite open to the ultra nationalist rhetoric being spewed out by various groups in Russia. If these young people are in powerful positions in the next ten years then it could result in some very radical anti-western policies coming out of Russia by 2015 - the same year that they plan on completing their nuclear weapons modernisation porgramme.

A radical ultra nationalist anti-Western leader presiding over enormous mineral wealth and a whole new nuclear defence arsenal could have grave implications for the West. All he'd have to do is turn off the gas spigots and the whole of Europe would freeze and most industry would be paralyzed.

We've already had a whiff of this policy, which btw was formulated in lockstep with the Chinese govt who will at the same time block the Mallaca Straights of all of Japan's energy needs. The Chinese were aware well in advance of the recent Gas supply stoppage from Russia, and are also working closely with the Russians on great advances in space defence weapons designed to remove America's satellites from space so as to blind America in any hostile situation. Who knows how they got they're hands on that level of advanced space defence research material? Hmmm.

And I wonder what defence spending programmes Rumsfeld was hinting at when he confronted the Chinese with questions about what they were really spending their hidden billions of defence spending on? Did he know somewthing that he wasn't saying that promptede him to make that statement?

Hmm..Now lets see...what other vast black budget programme swallowed vast sums of defence dept money and showed very little apparent results for the amount poured in? Hmmm. Why are the Chinese doing the same thing with their defence spending? Surely not a massive black budget PLA star wars programme using stolen Western technology to destroy America in space in a future space conflict? Will the next Pearl Harbour happen in geo-stationary orbit above the Earth?





[edit on 6-3-2006 by JamesinOz]

Heres a question, or hypthetical scenario:

How would America be able to target their own ICBMs or communicate with their bombers/submarines if Russia/China were successful in disabling a majority of the US's satellite network?

Could this allow a sneak nuclear attack by Russia/China?

Could taking out the vast majority of the US's satellite network blind the US, as I've noticed that just about every part of the US military rely heavily on satellite communications (from experience of being in the Royal Marines and dealing with US personnel/equipment)?

Just something to ponder over when you read about the amount Russia/China are investing in their bunker, military, nuclear and space combat systems. Remember, the people leading these countries are no different than you or me, in that they are still driven by the same human traits - fear, love, hate, etc.

I hope Stellar is reading, because I'm sure he'll have a lot of information to back this up/break it down.

Of course the idea being that once Japan and Europe are on their knees and in a state of chaos and America's space defences have all been wiped out, making all ground based actions and communications impossible, that a Russian blitskreig would immediately be launched through Russia into Germany and Central Europe, while China uses the same blitskreig tactics to quickly secure Japan and take over that cuontry.

The hope would be that the Americans would be very limited in their respnse due to their inablilty to operate their defence and missile systems without any form of space based communication and coordination equipment being avaiable.

This is the co-ordinated strategy being worked upon by the Russians and Chinese now for the first stage of their world domination attempt and will be the opening round of WW111. Next stop for the Russians and the Chinese- America and Australia, and then the planet's there's.

Those lucky Europeans got their first taste of the Sino-Russian WW111 with the shock gas stoppages conducted by Russia earlier this winter.

Have you read any of the books written by Anatoly Golitsyn? Sounds like you have

Anyway, nice little summary - pretty much my own thoughts, too!

Originally posted by James Daniel
Heres a question, or hypthetical scenario:

How would America be able to target their own ICBMs or communicate with their bombers/submarines if Russia/China were successful in disabling a majority of the US's satellite network?

Well the US has launched at least 186 military satellites since 1984, the vast majority of which are still in orbit. So any attempt to disable that mnay satellites would be a massive undertaking and be entirely obvious. Then of course you hvae the US commercial satellites which could be used for military applications - a few hundred more.
Also, the US are developing microsat trechnology which can put up military constellations at very short notice.

US Military Satellite launch list

Microsatellite list

The US doesn't need satellites to target their ICBM's. They already know where Chinese/Russian silos are and the rest of their infrastructure. Their ICBM's can use stellar/inertial guidance to accurately attack these points.

Could this allow a sneak nuclear attack by Russia/China?

No, how could it be a sneak attack, when the US knows it's satellite constellations have been attacked

Could taking out the vast majority of the US's satellite network blind the US, as I've noticed that just about every part of the US military rely heavily on satellite communications (from experience of being in the Royal Marines and dealing with US personnel/equipment)?

Well the answer is kinda obvious of course it's yes, but that's the same for any country. The US though has hundreds of satellites in space, their satellite communications are often triple redundant.

Just something to ponder over when you read about the amount Russia/China are investing in their bunker, military, nuclear and space combat systems.

Hmm and the US isn't ? How do you what sort of money Russia/China are investing ?

Nothing is impossible - especially developing a strategy to take out/blind a few hundred satellites. Fair enough, it would be a huge undertaking, but the point is, should an enemy be determined enough, it can be done.

Even if the US could send up a few hundred satellites in short notice, how long would this really take? If the purpose of blinding the US was to launch a successful first strike, I believe that the US would be at a massive disadvantged - limited to no communications and a delayed retaliatory strike, not to mention, a surprise first strike would remove a large part of the US's ability to launch new satellites, which would cause a long-term disadvantage.

The ICBMs use satellites to greatly increase their accuracy, how would this affect their targeting should this be removed? What would the CEP (?) be? Surely there would be at a much greater disadvantage without the use of satellites?

This could be a co-ordinated attack i.e. within the first few hours, if not minutes of taking out a large majority of the US's satellite systems, a first strike nuclear attack could be well and truly established. If the US command is even partially blinded, they would first need to organize sit-reps - without satellite comms, this could proof difficult, but not impossible. Again, the point being, the US will still be at a greater disadvantage as the Russians/Chinese will still have their communications and will know exactly what is and will be happening.

A satellite is a satellite is a satellite. I'm sure that if the Russians/Chinese employed this strategy, they would target as many of the satellites in space as possible, including any redundancy systems they can target. to ensure that the US is severly disadvantaged and remain so. The US is already at a disadvantage, due to morals, which I believe are completely different than those of the Russians/Chinese. Whereas the Russians and Chinese would more than likely launch on the slightest hint of a nuclear first strike, I believe the US will be delayed in their decision to launch. Now, if they are blinded and are not sure what is happening, there maybe an even greater delay before they launch their ICBMs. By that time, Russian/Chinese ICBMs maybe hitting key installations, including silos - mostly importantly, the Russians/Chinese will have reasonable time to prepare their command and military personnel for the retaliatory strike from the US - which, if the Russians were successful in their first strike, would be severly limited.

Going by the research and sources presented by Stellar and a few others regarding this topic, it would seem that the Russians/Chinese are investing a large proportion of their military budget in to developing advanced nuclear weaponary, bunker systems and so forth. The US, on the other hand, is investing more in advanced fighters, ships, etc. Obviously, both countries are preparing for completely different strategies - I'm not sure about you, but it certainly does raise a red flag with me, which prompts further research on my part.

Anyway, this is all hypothetical - but my analysis is based on simple observation of what is happening in the world in regards to various countries manuveours, etc, but I do appreciate your feedback, even though you don't provide any backing - and before you ask for me to back up my statements, 1) I am following up on Stellar's posts with you and 2) this is an hypothetical scenario going by what has already been posted here.

Originally posted by James Daniel
Nothing is impossible - especially developing a strategy to take out/blind a few hundred satellites. Fair enough, it would be a huge undertaking, but the point is, should an enemy be determined enough, it can be done.

Your whole point is that it would be a surprise attack, which wouldn't be achieved if you disrupted the satellite system, they'd know something was up.
Also many of the the US communications satellites and DSP sats are in geosynchronous orbit. No country has demnstrated a capability of affecting satellites in GEO.
Not to mention ground based radars would track the incoming warheads, such as Cobra Dane and the DEW system.

Even if the US could send up a few hundred satellites in short notice, how long would this really take? If the purpose of blinding the US was to launch a successful first strike, I believe that the US would be at a massive disadvantged - limited to no communications and a delayed retaliatory strike, not to mention, a surprise first strike would remove a large part of the US's ability to launch new satellites, which would cause a long-term disadvantage.

Erm no. The US has plenty of bachip communications systems not based on satellites, not to mention the dual capable commercial satellites. As I've already said the US would see ioncoming warheads from ground based radar.

The ICBMs use satellites to greatly increase their accuracy, how would this affect their targeting should this be removed? What would the CEP (?) be? Surely there would be at a much greater disadvantage without the use of satellites?

The satellites provide targetting data which wouldn't cahnge in the hour the satellites are taken out. The US already knows the postion of all fixed silos and C3I static infrastructure, that is more than enough to target ICBM's. ICBM's don't use saytellites for accuracy, they use stella/inertial guidance completely independent of outside assistance.

This could be a co-ordinated attack i.e. within the first few hours, if not minutes of taking out a large majority of the US's satellite systems, a first strike nuclear attack could be well and truly established. If the US command is even partially blinded, they would first need to organize sit-reps - without satellite comms, this could proof difficult, but not impossible

As I've stated above. I'm curious as to how you think all these satellites are going to be taken out ? What are the Chinese/Russians going to launch hundreds of ASATs ? We need to try and stay realistic, not delve into the realms of fantasy.

Again, the point being, the US will still be at a greater disadvantage as the Russians/Chinese will still have their communications and will know exactly what is and will be happening.

Again, how are they going to destroy US comunications ? The US can easily launch a retalitory strike based on grund based radar informtaion before the opposing sides warheads strike. As I've already said, the US SATCOM is triple redundant and would be impossible to destroy.

You've yet to pose any type of realistic sceanriop as to how the US communications would be destroyed

A satellite is a satellite is a satellite. I'm sure that if the Russians/Chinese employed this strategy, they would target as many of the satellites in space as possible, including any redundancy systems they can target. to ensure that the US is severly disadvantaged and remain so

Target these satellites how ? Any launch against these satellityes would be picked up by DSP sats in GEO. Teh americans would see what's coming

Going by the research and sources presented by Stellar and a few others regarding this topic, it would seem that the Russians/Chinese are investing a large proportion of their military budget in to developing advanced nuclear weaponary, bunker systems and so forth.

Hmm, well I'd read those links more carefully and look at the sources. Nothing supports what you say about the Chinese and most of the info from Russia is from disproved 1980's DIA reports.
IF you can provide links to what you claim go ahead, however I noticed you haven't posted any.

but I do appreciate your feedback, even though you don't provide any backing - and before you ask for me to back up my statements, 1) I am following up on Stellar's posts with you and 2) this is an hypothetical scenario going by what has already been posted here.

Well I already have in my previous post - unfortunately I can't say the same for you.

Perhaps the Chinese would only significantly damage the US military satellite network. It may be possible that over the next ten years they launch satellite killers en masse to shadow all known satellites, after all most of them just sit in the one spot in geo-stationary orbit for most of the time and are therefore sitting ducks.

Also - in the next ten years or so China is going to have tens of millions of unmarried young men to deal with due to the population disparity between the sexes and widely practised infanticide of young girls. If this huge number of unmarried males poses a threat to Chinese society then it may be easier to enlist them all into a massive army which could provide a human wave approach to back up any military strategy. As they may be viewed as being surplus people their loss would incur no great political damage to Beijing.

I personally don't buy the diplomatic window dressing coming out of Beijing at the moment in the lead up to the 2008 Beijing Olympics. The same thing happened in the lead up to the 1936 Berlin Olympics.


[edit on 6-3-2006 by JamesinOz]

Originally posted by James Daniel
Have you read any of the books written by Anatoly Golitsyn? Sounds like you have

Anyway, nice little summary - pretty much my own thoughts, too!

No I've honestly never heard of that author in my life.
Who knows what will really happen in the years ahead. I certainly don't. Hopefully all of the scenarios outlined in this thread will remain the domain of armchair conspiracy buffs.





[edit on 6-3-2006 by JamesinOz]

Hmmm yer so China and Russia attack USA ERM hello what about Europe and Australia WTF you think we will be doing, oh yer launching our ICBM and deploying secret weps and telling the USA that incoming missiles from Russia and China launch launch yer ICMb's and inform the sub, bombers, secret space stuff, and deploy the secret weps.

As Europe's like next door to Russia you think we wouldn't notice DOH.

You know it wouldn't surprise me if USA had stealth NUKE missiles or a missile base on the moon or in far orbit of the moon, lol maybe theres loads of nuke missile platforms on far side of the moon waiting for an attack then they will move in an drop hell on Russia and china lol you never know, who knows maybe theres high energy lasers out there in space, you just dont know WTF they put up in space, i suppose it is totally possible that they could of built a super mother farker nuke bomb in space like a 5000 kilo-ton nuke or something (like a doomsday weapon) and taken it out into space far away hidden awaiting a signal for reactivation Target Russia and China how handy those two are right next door to each other makes bombs life easy.



[edit on 6-3-2006 by blobby]

[edit on 6-3-2006 by blobby]

As well teh US has deployed stealth satellites in teh past and could well be doing so now and in teh future. So teh Chinese/Russians culdn't even find some of the satellites to shoot down.

The spy satellites, which reportedly employ technology similar to that used on the B-2 bomber and the F-117A fighter, are designed to orbit undetected in an attempt to cloak American surveillance of other nations. As a result, countries that draw particular attention, notably Iran and North Korea, will thus be unable to determine when American satellites are overhead. Consequently, they will be unable to plan accordingly, making their developments subject to unquantifiable scrutiny.

www.globalsecurity.org...

The MISTY low observables spacecraft program was initially justified on the basis that it would help the Reagan Administration catch the USSR cheating on arms control. The analog was to the first KH-11, which the US believed [correctly or not] the Soviets hadn't recognized as a photoreconnaissance satellite until Kampiles sold them the operators manual, and which allowed the United States to peek into some buildings at Sary Shagan that were normally closed up when the earlier KEYHOLEs went overhead. The enthusiam for nuclear warfighting programs of the early 1980s might have been of equal or greater importance. Such programs as the B-2 stealth bomber, Continuity of Government, and the formation of the DDX/K Group strategic counter-C3 at NSA all occurred at around that time, and were all characterized by the same ultra-blackness as the ZIRCONIC programs. It may have been argued that MISTY would give the US a survivable Trans-SIOP reconnaissance capability.

www.globalsecurity.org...

Originally posted by JamesinOz
Perhaps the Chinese would only significantly damage the US military satellite network. It may be possible that over the next ten years they launch satellite killers en masse to shadow all known satellites, after all most of them just sit in the one spot in geo-stationary orbit for most of the time and are therefore sitting ducks.

Any such move would easily be detected by the US, it would hardly be a surprise to them. NASA actually photgraphs every satellite put into sapce with an airborne telescope.
The DSP satellites can detect every launch from space, so there is no way that these ASAT's can be snuck up there and they would literally have to launch hundreds( assuming 100% success which would be unrealistic ).

Originally posted by blobby


As Europe's like next door to Russia you think we wouldn't notice DOH.

It appeared that Europe was caught completely unawares when Russia turned off the gas a few months ago. After a couple of days the problem quickly escalated as a supply knock on effect took place across the continent. Perhaps not so coincidental that it occurred mid winter?

Fortunately, the gas was turned back on after a few days. Surprises do happen.

Also - there isn't even a unified European army to deal with any crisis in a co-ordinated fashion in that part of the world. This raises questions about Europes ability to deal with any future threats, especially if the U.S. is pre-occupied elsewhere and unable to assist in any meaningful way.



[edit on 6-3-2006 by JamesinOz]

Well done Rouge, I am impressed, you have effectively used superior knowledge and facts to defeat hypothetical unrealistic scenarios. Not something that is easy to do, again well done.

Originally posted by 27jd
I don't think Yamantau or any other underground facility in existence could withstand several direct, high yield hits in a short period. Unlike old weapons, new ones are able to be accurately delivered, like lightning striking the same place over and over.

They are not THAT accurate either. Supposedly this complex can take half a dozen high yield penetration hits in the same spot without the complex being compromised. If that is really accurate i am not sure but considering how little the US admits to knowing about the complex it's really hard to tell.

I can imagine that many high yield bunker busters delivered one after the other would destroy these underground facilities.

They have according to some intelligence officials thousands of complexes spread around the country with most major cities having one more to serve as shelters for local high ranking city/party officials.

Also, I'm sure whatever the Russians have going on down there, is known to U.S. intelligence, and vice versa.

Well they might but they are not admitting any knowledge on the topic.

Russia has no deisre to start a nuclear war, even if Yamantau could survive, would they want to live down there forever?

No sane government wants to start a nuclear war but sane governments everywhere should be preparing to fight or at least survive such a war.

Figure 1.2 also illustrates the fact that at a typical location where a given amount of fallout from an explosion is deposited later than 1 hour after the explosion, the highest dose rate and the total dose received at that location are less than at a location where the same amount of fallout is deposited 1 hour after the explosion. The longer fallout particles have been airborne before reaching the ground, the less dangerous is their radiation.

Within two weeks after an attack the occupants of most shelters could safely stop using them, or could work outside the shelters for an increasing number of hours each day. Exceptions would be in areas of extremely heavy fallout such as might occur downwind from important targets attacked with many weapons, especially missile sites and very large cities. To know when to come out safely, occupants either would need a reliable fallout meter to measure the changing radiation dangers, or must receive information based on measurements made nearby with a reliable instrument.

www.oism.org...

So hiding underground would not be a long term ( many months or years as people commonly think) affair and with proper protecting clothing one could relatively safely do critical work outside within a few days depending on circumstances.

There would be nothing left of their country when they emerged, and the world wouldn't be worth conquering. It's just not gonna happen.

This is a commonly perceived 'reality' that has very little to do with the one we are stuck with. Nuclear winter, or total destruction of the US ( Or anywhere else), will not happen due to the use of even all the currently declared nuclear weapons. It's one of those 'scientific' myths that just wont die due to it's extensive use by people who want to see the US disarmed.

Stellar

Originally posted by resistor
Just so. The US is scheduled for a fall. Just as Germany had to fall for a united Europe to form, the US must fall for a united world to form. Bush is playing Hitlers role in the modern stage-play. If you can't see it all being set up, you're just not looking.

And it's been going on for some decades now. Fact is if a new world order will be built it will be on the ruins of the western society. Trying to change western culture to what is required by corporate socialist or plain old facists is just not going to be easily done and it's far better to destroy it entirely and make use of the east Asian cultures as your slave labour force. If anyone ever wondered why Japan and China could both grow in the same rapid way this is the aspect i beleive we should be looking at.

Stellar

I suggest people here read Russian folk tales and fairy tales. Do it. You will be amazed at how much blood, carnage and violence is present. It is a reflection of Russia's history in which periodically million died at a time due to tyrants, invasions, etc. Very interesting really.

It is interesting, this mountain complex. It could be that Russia knows something we don't, or it could be something innocent.

As long as this does not happen we will be fine for a while.
www.funnyjunk.com...

Originally posted by StellarX

Originally posted by 27jd
I don't think Yamantau or any other underground facility in existence could withstand several direct, high yield hits in a short period. Unlike old weapons, new ones are able to be accurately delivered, like lightning striking the same place over and over.

They are not THAT accurate either. Supposedly this complex can take half a dozen high yield penetration hits in the same spot without the complex being compromised. If that is really accurate i am not sure but considering how little the US admits to knowing about the complex it's really hard to tell.

Its pretty clear what weapon the US would use on Yamantau. It might also just be a coincidence that it was developed at just about the same time as the Yamantau was under construction.

The B61-11 Nuclear bunker buster

yield 10KT--300KT

A 10 KT warhead detonated 4 feet underground can produce a shockwave sufficient to crush a bunker buried under 100 meters of rock.

Exactly how far the B61-11 penetrates is classified they aint going to tell you but I assure you its deeper then 4 feet. In theory a tactical missile might possibly penetrate to 100 feet. The B61-11 that would target Yamantau would be the 300KT ones not the tiny 10KT. 300KT! thats huge Hiroshima bomb was only about 12.5 to 15 Kt in size.

Yamantau was likely countered before construction of the complex was even finished. These new nuclear bunker busters in the US were likley a direct result of new Russian super bunkers.

[edit on 7-3-2006 by ShadowXIX]