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Originally posted by Regenmacher
Were'd you get these ideas about China? 2/3rds of Iran's exported oil goes to Asia. If the UN can get China to go with trade sanctions against its principle supplier of crude, hell has truelly froze over.
Originally posted by IAF101
I would say that the UN should impose sanctions as soon as possible on Iran on any and every commodity that they trade with any nation. Even Pakistan and Iraq should shut them out. This can happen, if Russia and Europe are with the US whole-heartedly, which I doubt Russia will ever be.
The point is that Iran wants a nuclear weapons that would in the future give them the power to take the world hostage again with greater ease.
The Russians dont need the oil as they have their own and the Chinese have their interests diversified enough to relinquish Iran to the UN.
The Chinese already have a large amount of their oil imported through Ukraine and the Russians plan to build another pipeline to meet the growing chinese need.
Also there is Malaysia and Brunei that have massive oil resources and these nations are more equitable with democratic nations.
Originally posted by SwearBear
Oh no, not one of these UN guys. Since when is the UN this supreme authority?
Anyways, can't Russia and China veto?
What do you mean "hold the world hostage"?
If Iran threatens to nuke Europe, Israel or the US, they will get nuked, it's self assured destruction, and they will accomplish nothing.
The Russians will need Iranian oil in the future. Russia is due to run out of oil if it continues exporting and consuming at it's current rate by 2013,
I refer to my previous answer. It won't last long and it won't satisfy the growing Chinese need for oil.
Proved oil reserves in Malaysia are about 3.2bbl.
They already export to China.
Brunei proved crude oil reserves stand at about 1.35bbl.
They can produce about 196k barrels of oil per day and also already export to China.
[edit on 21/1/2006 by SwearBear]
Originally posted by Thatoneguy
oh what power one middle eastern country has over practically the world.
The Dow lost 213 points, the biggest drop in one day in nearly 3 years.
Oil approaching records not seen since our entire gulf of mexico infrastructure was shut down due to an act of God.
Originally posted by IAF101
Actually you have gotten it wrong! They already have made indirect threats to destroy Isreal and anti-US connotations make up a significant part of their identity, so the hate is there and the only thing they need is the weapon.
Also you forget that unlike rational states Islamic states are different, they would rather die fighting the "great SATAN " than comply with democratic nations.
Their are still vast regions in Russia that have been unexplored and when the need comes they will be sure to find more, Russia covers nearly 1/3 or Asia and it is more than likely than they will be more reserves that are waiting to be discovered.
At the rate they are going they would never be able to fullfil their needs, they will adapt and as they doing right now they will invest in altrenate sources. Also they have enought oil for power generation and their power outages are because of insuffecient power generation rather than a lack of oil as you have claimed.
As I have already said the Russian -chinese pipeline is long awaited and also they get oil form the Ukraine. The malaysian and Brunei oil fields have still not been fully explored and also they have the Sudanese oil fields and the rest of the gulf to supply them oil. I doubt their will be a shortage, there will be oil one would just have to know where to get it from.
Plus the Iranians wont hold out long maybe 10 years after which they would have to relent and sell oil in order to sustain their nation. They have no other major industry to speak of, so oil is their cash cow !
from Yarcofin
But I just don't get it... How can Korea and Iran pull this crap on a daily basis, but Iraq is the one attacked?
And was I the only one that heard the Iranian leader say something about having a magical aura that makes politicians unable to look away from him while he's talking? WHATS UP WITH THAT? This guy is nuts.
from bigpappadiaz
What can also create an oil crisis:
1) If Iran's government implodes because of all angry youths protesting, who make up 65% of the population. So if we bomb the hell out of their nuclear program, they'll hate us and won't sell us any oil, but the youth will rally behind the leadership and prevent the country from descending into anarchy. And if we don't, the youth will enact change anyways, and won't sell us any oil. It's a no winner in my opinion.
Originally posted by jsobecky
from bigpappadiaz
What can also create an oil crisis:
1) If Iran's government implodes because of all angry youths protesting, who make up 65% of the population. So if we bomb the hell out of their nuclear program, they'll hate us and won't sell us any oil, but the youth will rally behind the leadership and prevent the country from descending into anarchy. And if we don't, the youth will enact change anyways, and won't sell us any oil. It's a no winner in my opinion.
It might just be wishful thinking on my part, but I've read that the Iranian youth are actually more friendly toward the west than you'd think. Many of them have been educated in western Universities and enjoy western culture. So if we can depose the current leadership, or better yet, have them stage a coup, without alienating the youth, it might be smoother
relations between us and them.
Originally posted by SwearBear
They might be a bit nutty but they're not stupid, just like North Korea.
NK has most likely got nukes, but they're not going to use them as an offensive, because that would be stupid and they would be annhilated, they would gain absolutely nothing.
Well that's just guessing for your part, very optimistic. There might some reserves, but none of significant size, that's my guess.
China isn't just going to accept it and "adapt."
A Chinese general already threatened to nuke the US if they interfered with whatever China would have in store for Taiwan, much more direct threat than Iran imo. And in this case Iran is more important than Taiwan, you don't think that they will interfere? They've already put $200 billion in Iran, they're not going to let it go down the toilet.
They don't have the largest active army in the world for nothing.
As I said, it's only a matter of time till China starts protecting it's energy security directly with it's military strength, like the US has done in Iraq, Afghanistan and West Africa, now possibly in Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Hah, the Ukraine ... they've only got ~395m bbl of proven reserves, produce about 2.1m bbl/d, meaning they will run out of oil soon.
And again I don't think there are any significantly big oil fields in South East Asia anymore, all the big ones have already been found.
Israel and the US might bomb Iranian nuclear facilities, slowing down their developement, if they haven't already acquired a or a few nuclear bombs, but they're not going to invade or start a nuclear war with Iran ... I hope.
Originally posted by IAF101
Actually the NKs are very stupid when it comes to diplomacy and thus their present tryst with misery ! The whole show is by the chinese and everybody know this. Thats the only reason they dont use the nukes not because they are smart.
The Iranians on the other hand are riddled with some vain idea of pride that rules them. A serious flaw that is expoited by the Russians and the Chinese to make life difficult for their western "allies".
the CCP would become popular if they took Taiwan by force but if the messed in IRan and got hit back causing their economy to fall apart their would be an uprising in china against the CCP. I think they would rather save themselves than make sure all the chinese get enought fuel to ride their cars.
where did you get that figure of $200 billion ?
Just because every policeman, postal worker and office clerk is registered as a member of the Red army doesnt mean that they can win wars easily or that gives them an advantage. The chinese cant even take out countries like India forget about projecting their military might in the middle east. They simply do not have the capability for that kind of action.
How does that mean that they will run out ? They can find new reserves or extract more from already exsisting reserves.
The Chinese want "safe" supplies of oil and gas generally prefering pipelines to shipping routes and that too in their immediate neighbourhood. The Chinese have not one but several oil pipeline agreements in central asia. ... They are in effect sucking Central Asia dry of all oil reserves.
IF the chinese make life difficult for the West they can write off their oil ventures in Central Asia and the middle east because that would mean a somewhat direct confrontatin with the entire Western world rather than only the US.