posted on Jan, 16 2006 @ 11:14 PM
I would just like to point out that the article doesn't state that Iran has threatened to cut off oil in the event of sanctions. It states that there
are concerns that sanctions might cause supply disruptions, or that there might be "cuts." It's certainly nowhere near being outside the realm of
possibility, though (or even likelihood). There just hasn’t been a direct threat made with respect to this.
The big questions are: does Israel feel threatened enough by Iran to launch unilateral air strikes against suspected nuclear weapons research and
development sites, and if so, does the United States really have enough pull with Israel to stop them from doing so? – and – is the current U.S.
administration willing to launch their own strikes, or support any made by Israel? The answer will depend on the ratio of threat assessment to the
consequences of air strikes (and incentives for not attacking).
If they feel substantially threatened by Iran's suspected nuclear program(s), have calculated that they can pull off air strikes with a minimum of
response from Iran and other nearby states, and feel they have more to lose by not attacking than they do by attacking, then Israel will probably opt
to pre-empt this threat before it flourishes. They have done it before. The current U.S. policy of pre-emptive warfare might lead them to calculate
that this might be a more favorable move to the U.S. than it might have been in the past, as well.
If Israel - not an international coalition - strikes first, then that is going to arouse a sense of justification for war among more countries than
just Iran in the region, and may have disastrous consequences for the region and the world. Keeping the conflict bound to one nation, and not allowing
it to evolve into a regional affair, drastically reduces the likelihood (as small as that likelihood probably is anyway) of a major multi-national war
developing. If the entire region, or much of it, becomes embroiled, then alarms will start ringing in countries across the planet, because this is the
primary oil producing region on Earth. Yes there are alternatives to Middle East oil, and yes there are alternatives to oil in general, but no country
is going to be willing to deal with the economic and strategic consequences of Iran, Israel, Syria, Lebanon, and above all Saudi Arabia, getting into
a fist fight.
That said, I think the world will be wise enough (let us hope!) to prevent that from ever happening. If even Bush is saying "Iran isn't Iraq," then
I think that's a good sign that all the proper levers and buttons are being pulled and pushed to ensure Israel doesn't jump the gun, Iran doesn't
develop and test a viable bomb, etc. The wild card, of course, is the conspiracy theory many suggest which includes such a regional conflict as being
part of the "master plan." If this were the case, then all bets would be off, simply because the region (and its oil) would be militarily and
politically up for grabs - winner takes all. I hope this never comes to pass. In fact, I hope there is no conflict, period, or any kind. I don’t
think it will come to that, though, unless the theories prove true. There’s just too much at risk.