SCI/TECH: Bird Flu Alert: Europe on the brink?

The number of suspected cases has now grown to 78!

Bird flu spreads in Turkey with dozens of suspected cases

Bird flu swept westwards through Turkey to the borders of Europe, sending local people scurrying to hospital for tests for the lethal infection. Officials said 78 people were suspected of having the virus which has killed three children in the east and may have infected a dozen more in the capital, Ankara.

In Istanbul, Turkey's largest city and the gateway to Europe, 23 people, half of them children, were being tested in hospital.

That's a big jump!

[edit on 10-1-2006 by loam]

Originally posted by blanketgirl
Do you remember if they commented on how well they were being compensated?
I mean it's completely possible that a chicken that normally is worth $1 is getting them $.01 from the gov... technically that is compensated, but to the people with the chickens that wouldn't be worth it.

I don't know what the official word is from the Ministry of Agriculture. I read that some folks on the street were pissed, saying that they would receive only $5 or so for a chicken that cost them $30.

Of course, these are some of the same folks that are saying that the whole thing is a scam designed to drive up teh price of lamb! So, I guess I don't really know for sure.

Originally posted by loam
The number of suspected cases has now grown to 78!

Some potential good news can be extrapolated from your source too, though. Which is great, since I haven't heard much else to be happy about. Here it is. I won't repost the link.

A fourth child from the same family, aged six, was discharged from hospital after being confirmed as free of the disease.

Perhaps suggestive of no human to human transmission yet?

And:

A study of 45,000 people in the north-west of the country found that 8,000 had had a flu-like illness, of which 650 to 750 cases could be attributed to direct contact with sick or dead poultry. Those infected did not seek hospital treatment and were not counted in official figures.

The finding indicates that the disease may be milder than suggested by the current 50 per cent death rate - based on the official figure of 146 confirmed cases and 76 deaths since 2003.

'Twould be nice if it were much less virile than intially thought.

Originally posted by Hamburglar
'Twould be nice if it were much less virile than intially thought.

I agree. Except, as I understand it, the mutation activity of virus are multidirectional....some become more virulent...others less.

Here is the newest from the WHO.

'Never have so many countries been affected by the avian flu virus'

How many people and countries are now affected?

Worldwide, 76 people have died of the H5N1 strain of avian influenza and the total number of confirmed cases has reached 146 in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, China, Indonesia and now Turkey. Vietnam has the highest number, with 93 cases and 42 deaths. China has reported seven cases and three deaths. Several other countries, such as Russia, Malaysia and Romania have reported outbreaks of influenza in poultry or wild migratory birds, but these nations have so far reported no cases in humans.

Is the current outbreak of the H5N1 strain in poultry unusual?

The World Health Organisation said that never have so many countries been simultaneously affected by a single, highly lethal strain of the virus. The H5N1 strain has proved especially tenacious. Even though millions of birds have been culled in south-east Asia, the virus is now considered endemic in many regions of the affected countries.

Each new infection brings the 'roulette' opportunity for something deadlier.

UN Warning over Turkey Bird Flu

Latest pronouncements from the UN and WHO over the situation. It is interesting to note that they are investigating the reason behind the fast spread of the virus.

From Hands link:

It says there is still no evidence of human-to-human transmission of bird flu. Experts fear that development could cause a global pandemic.

Victims appeared to have contracted the virus from close contact with infected poultry. But the WHO admits it may be to soon to confirm any changes in the virus and its spread.

The WHO thinks the world is now closer to another flu pandemic than at any time since 1968, when the last of the 20th Century's three pandemics occurred.

Nothing seems to be certain at this point. On one hand in the article they say there is no cause for panic, but then they also say they cannot yet explain the wide and swift spread of the virus.

Everyone just keep your eyes peeled on this one. there is still a lot more information that needs to be confirmed.

On a positive note, I read an article about a girl whose chickens were her pets and she loved them dearly. She held her dying chicken in her arms, comforting it while it died. The next morning she woke with serious symptoms and they got her to the hospital immediately. The avian flu was confirmed. She responded to the tamiflu and recovered.

As mentioned previously, there is some good news:

Bird flu: Changing before doctors' eyes?

...Doctors are unsure if - for the first time - they are seeing human bird flu in its earliest stages, or if they are discovering that infection with the H5N1 virus does not necessarily lead to illness.

In any case, the unusual cluster of five cases detected in this capital city over the last three days is challenging some doctors' assumptions about bird flu and giving them new insights into how the virus spreads and causes disease.

These cases have raised the possibility that human bird flu is not as deadly as has been thought, and that there may be many mild cases that have gone unreported...

Loam,

Thanks for the link! Very interesting article.

I've said elsewhere (just written an article on the subject for a friend's website) there may be a 50% mortality in recorded cases in Asia but that is for cases that seem to have been severe enough to have got people to medical care. I've thought that the rate of infection must be higher than just the cases recorded so far....

[Bangs head on keyboard.]

NOBODY is using molecular diagnostics routinely - so nobody knows how how much H5N1 is really out there. Given that H5N1 has been spreading around the world since 1949 (when it first was discovered in Scotland) - we're pretty much guaranteed to have some degree of immunity.

The real problem with H5N1 bird flu and other emerging pathogens is NOT their potential to be fatal - it's the fact they cause silently and slowly progressive, disabling chronic disease.

Not one country in the world can deal with the economic burdens already created by supporting disabled people - this and other coming epidemics will break banks and national backs.


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A study in Vietnam from Sweden's Karolinska Institute suggests that H5N1 bird flu is far more common than previously thought. "The researchers believe that the true occurrence and mortality rates are unknown, since there have been no studies assessing exposure to the virus and disease in a population-based setting."

NEW YORK (Reuters Health) - Although human bird flu infection is believed to be a rare, life-threatening disease, a study in Vietnam suggests that the infection rate may be higher than was previously thought, often causing relatively mild respiratory symptoms. In a report in the Archives of Internal Medicine, Dr. Anna Thorson and her associates note that high death rates are derived from avian flu patients admitted to hospitals in major cities. The researchers believe that the true occurrence and mortality rates are unknown, since there have been no studies assessing exposure to the virus and disease in a population-based setting.

Reuters
Original Source: Study: Archives of Internal Medicine

Also see:

CBC

Noticias Internationale


Again - The real problem with H5N1 bird flu and other emerging pathogens is NOT their potential to be fatal - it's the fact they cause silently and slowly progressive disabling chronic disease.

Not one country in the world can deal with the economic burdens already created by supporting chronically debilitated and disabled people - this and other coming epidemics will break banks and national economies.


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[edit on 12-1-2006 by soficrow]

Originally posted by soficrow
Again - The real problem with H5N1 bird flu and other emerging pathogens is NOT their potential to be fatal - it's the fact they cause silently and slowly progressive disabling chronic disease.

Not their potential to be fatal? You must mean that you don't see a pandemic as being on the horizon as the real threat. How could a possibly 50% mortality rate not be the predominant concern?

Originally posted by Relentless

Originally posted by soficrow
Again - The real problem with H5N1 bird flu and other emerging pathogens is NOT their potential to be fatal - it's the fact they cause silently and slowly progressive disabling chronic disease.

Not their potential to be fatal? You must mean that you don't see a pandemic as being on the horizon as the real threat. How could a possibly 50% mortality rate not be the predominant concern?

I think something will become pandemic and mainly fatal, not necessarily bird flu.

I say a 50% mortality rate is not the predominant concern - but rather the social and economic costs of supporting growing populations of chronically debilitated people. ...Most of the world's nations already are overburdened by disabled populations - adding greater numbers of chronically debilitated pandemic survivors predictably will make eugenics policies look even more reasonable.

We are not privy to the information or planning and decision-making - but it seems we are being led into a box.

imo, the real concern is not the victims who die but rather, the victims who survive with chronic debilitation. So I am concerned with the fate of the survivors - who almost certainly will be considered "useless eaters."


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